What’s next from Canon?

Jul 21, 2010
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... in a shrinking market where DSLR sales have plummeted and Mirrorless sales have basically flatlined. (See the Chart below from @dolina.)
That's a nice graphic that @dolina made, thanks for reposting it.

What strikes me is that while DSLR sales have plummeted, they appear to be bottoming out at only slightly lower than MILC sales, and the latter have been basically flat since CIPA started tracking them separately from DSLRs. (Note that I highlight appear, because two points don't confirm a trend, but a further piece of evidence to support the idea that they're bottoming out comes from Canon's financials, where they stated just that, i.e. 'the low end of the market is bottoming out', and based on MSRP the DSLRs comprise the low end).

But also worth noting is that the above data are unit sales. Revenues tell a different story, one where DSLRs plummet deeper and MILCs show growth.
 
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josephandrews222

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I am aware of the high level of enthusiasm that the 7D fanboys have for the R7.

But I have doubts about how well the R7 (and R10, for that matter) will sell.

Here’s why.

For years and years, Best Buy stores in my area had, on display, 4-6 different Canon DSLR bodies… and yes, most of these were outfitted with APS-C sensors.

My oh my today’s high-quality cellphone cameras have decimated this particular market, too…and for the past couple or three years, those same Best Buy stores have drastically reduced their display and shelf space for interchangeable lens cameras from all manufacturers.

I don’t think this market segment will ever recover. I hope it does, but I have serious reservations…

But, I think that both the R5 and R6 will continue to sell well—Canon has mastered the art of selling big-ticket items. People who read this forum, for example, know what they want and are willing to pay for it.

The low-end, though, I just don’t see it.
 
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unfocused

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Jul 20, 2010
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I am aware of the high level of enthusiasm that the 7D fanboys have for the R7.

But I have doubts about how well the R7 (and R10, for that matter) will sell.

Here’s why.

For years and years, Best Buy stores in my area had, on display, 4-6 different Canon DSLR bodies… and yes, most of these were outfitted with APS-C sensors.

My oh my today’s high-quality cellphone cameras have decimated this particular market, too…and for the past couple or three years, those same Best Buy stores have drastically reduced their display and shelf space for interchangeable lens cameras from all manufacturers.

I don’t think this market segment will ever recover. I hope it does, but I have serious reservations…

But, I think that both the R5 and R6 will continue to sell well—Canon has mastered the art of selling big-ticket items. People who read this forum, for example, know what they want and are willing to pay for it.

The low-end, though, I just don’t see it.
I don't think either the R7 or the R10 could be called low end. I tend to think Canon has a pretty good handle on their markets and would not make cameras that won't sell.
 
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unfocused

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That's a nice graphic that @dolina made, thanks for reposting it.

What strikes me is that while DSLR sales have plummeted, they appear to be bottoming out at only slightly lower than MILC sales, and the latter have been basically flat since CIPA started tracking them separately from DSLRs. (Note that I highlight appear, because two points don't confirm a trend, but a further piece of evidence to support the idea that they're bottoming out comes from Canon's financials, where they stated just that, i.e. 'the low end of the market is bottoming out', and based on MSRP the DSLRs comprise the low end).

But also worth noting is that the above data are unit sales. Revenues tell a different story, one where DSLRs plummet deeper and MILCs show growth.
Good points. I think many people buying their first (and probably only) interchangeable lens camera are looking for something that says "real camera" and that is still a DSLR. Plus, nothing really matches the price points of Rebels. It is interesting that for their first two APS-C R cameras, Canon aimed for the higher end. They may yet release a series of Rebel-style R bodies, but they aren't leading with that.
 
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(See the Chart below from @dolina.)
The chart is certainly interesting but the initial mirrorless data point in 2012 is troubling... I am assuming that it covers interchangeable lens bodies.

Why would they start at ~4m/year? I can understand a ramp up over time but a big bang in 2012 seems unlikely
Sony bought Minolta in 2006 and moved from DLSR to SLT in 2010 but would that be considered mirrorless? SLT was discontinued in 2012
They also added E mount in 2010 and the A99 in 2012 as their first full frame mirrorless body. Only the NEX series was available in 2012 with the a7 starting in 2013.

So what were all the MILC cameras sold in 2012?

The lack of variability over time ie staying around 3-4m/year for 10 years now seems not to include phones taking over the low end of the market. Surely it was not only DLSRs that suffered from this market disruption.
 
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koenkooi

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Mine would be: the R3 with the R5 sensor. That's all, folks!
I wonder what the reverse would cost: an R5 with the R3 sensor and EVF. It would beat the both the R6 and R5 on speed in all ways. But I'm not sure how it would fit into the line up.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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The chart is certainly interesting but the initial mirrorless data point in 2012 is troubling... I am assuming that it covers interchangeable lens bodies.

Why would they start at ~4m/year? I can understand a ramp up over time but a big bang in 2012 seems unlikely
Sony bought Minolta in 2006 and moved from DLSR to SLT in 2010 but would that be considered mirrorless? SLT was discontinued in 2012
They also added E mount in 2010 and the A99 in 2012 as their first full frame mirrorless body. Only the NEX series was available in 2012 with the a7 starting in 2013.

So what were all the MILC cameras sold in 2012?

The lack of variability over time ie staying around 3-4m/year for 10 years now seems not to include phones taking over the low end of the market. Surely it was not only DLSRs that suffered from this market disruption.
The underlying data are from CIPA. The blue bars are ILCs. They also report fixed-lens cameras (i.e. P&S and ‘bridge’) but those aren’t in the chart.

Prior to 2012, they did not separately report MILC vs DSLR, but both are ILCs and were included as such. That’s why there’s no ramp up for mirrorless.

The plot by @dolina is incorrect (and misleading) in that he should have started the DSLR line in 2012 along with the MILC line. Instead, he plotted DSLRs as comprising all ILCs up to 2011, when in fact we don’t know the breakdown of MILC/DSLR prior to 2012 (but almost certainly MILCs would have ramped up over a few years as you suggest).
 
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My guess was/ is the following line-up:

R1 (coming in 2023)
R3
R5 - R5c - R5s

I guess canon will wait for the Sony A 7RV to arrive and then decide what sensor the high resolution camera will receive. My guess is 77-80mp if Sony doesn’t up the mp (as rumors suggest). That way, canon could use a 100mp sensor in 5-7 years (niche cameras have longer cycles)

R6 (mk II in 2023)
R7
R8 (R successor coming in Q1/2 in 2023)

Given the fps specs and ibis for the R7, an R successor at the aimed price point between RP and R6, would at least need IBIS and about 12 Fps. So Canon will have to release an R6 Mk II to differentiate further (e.g. 24 MP BSI sensor) otherwise they’ll either hurt their R6 sales or release a crippled R8…

R9 (RP successor coming in 2022)

Please consider: These are all guesses based on my opinion, not facts or rumors which I imply as facts.
For the time being, Canon can continue to sell the R/ RP as entry models. Besides FPS, the R is a really good camera and great value for money. If you don’t shoot sports/ wildlife, it really is a steal imho.
 
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Interesting times. I own an R5 and I am very pleased with the performances. I need a second body for redundancy for a remote expedition next March. Price set aside, should I jump on the R7 soon available or is it plausible that an R1 with all it’s very desirable features be available in time for March 2023 ? A second R5 would be too much of the same thing, an R6 is not suited for wildlife without carrying a big white and the same goes for the R3. I would like ( and will probably do ) upgrade to an R1 but the best camera is always the one you have available. Any thoughts ?
 
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For years and years, Best Buy stores in my area had, on display, 4-6 different Canon DSLR bodies… and yes, most of these were outfitted with APS-C sensors.

My oh my today’s high-quality cellphone cameras have decimated this particular market, too…and for the past couple or three years, those same Best Buy stores have drastically reduced their display and shelf space for interchangeable lens cameras from all manufacturers.
If the US photography market is anything like the UK It's quite sad that shops like Best Buy (and Currys in the UK) are about the only bricks and mortar camera shops left. There used to be at least 4 photographic shops in my local area. All gone. You can only buy cameras locally in Currys and Argos.

That said, I don't think that the stock Currys and Argos carry - and probably Best Buy, is truly representative of what many photography enthusiasts actually want.
 
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josephandrews222

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If the US photography market is anything like the UK It's quite sad that shops like Best Buy (and Currys in the UK) are about the only bricks and mortar camera shops left. There used to be at least 4 photographic shops in my local area. All gone. You can only buy cameras locally in Currys and Argos.

That said, I don't think that the stock Currys and Argos carry - and probably Best Buy, is truly representative of what many photography enthusiasts actually want.
Your point here is a good one.

A very good one.

Which leads to a question, though (no snark intended)...

Who, exactly, are photography enthusiasts? How is the 'enthusiast' category defined?

And to what degree do what these 'enthusiasts' purchase contribute to Canon's bottom line...compared with those who walked into Best Buy (in the USA) and bought a Canon Rebel XYZ?

I mean...Canon sold MILLIONS of those cameras...film (think Andre Agase ads from the film days) as well as digital (early 21st century).

I very much enjoy (most of!) the back-and-forth on this forum and others like it...and genuinely look forward to seeing what is next for Canon.

But I just don't see the market exploding in a good way...for both the R7 and the R10.

Could be wrong...!
 
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