APS-C Roadmap for 2012: A Prediction

[jgillespie928]

I predict that Canon will annouce three new APS-C bodies in 2012 that couple a new sensor with the new DiG!C 5+ image processor:

EOS 7D Mark II	EOS 70D	EOS Rebel T4i / 650D
22.1 mp APS-C CMOS image sensor (5,760 x 3,840)	22.1 mp APS-C CMOS image sensor (5,760 x 3,840)	22.1 mp APS-C CMOS image sensor (5,760 x 3,840)
Dual DiG!C 5+ image processors	DiG!C 5+ image processor	DiG!C 5+ image processor
Native ISO 100-12800 1/3-stop & 1-stop increments	Native ISO 100-12800 1/3-stop & 1-stop increments	Native ISO 100-12800 1-stop increments only
10 fps shutter	6 fps shutter	4 fps shutter
45-point (19 cross-type AF points plus 26 assist AF points)	19 all cross-type AF points (EOS 7D AF system)	9 all cross-type AF points (EOS 60D AF system)
Magnesium alloy chassis	Polycarbonate resin with glass fibre on aluminum chassis	Polycarbonate resin with glass fibre on aluminum chassis
Dual media: CF Type I or II / SD, SDHC or SDXC	SD, SDHC or SDXC	SD, SDHC or SDXC
MSRP $2,299.00	MSRP $1,299.00	MSRP $949.00

 

[CandiColoredPixels]

The 3 of those bodies sound pretty good to me. Not sure what type of specs they all might boast, but I do believe they'll come out later this year. Wonder if the 7D2 will have an articulating screen or not, as I'm sure the 70D and the T4i both would.

 

[BRNexus6]

22 MP is overkill on a APS-C sensor. We need better low-light capabilities, not worse.

 

[phemark]

Updated AF system would be nice for Rebel, but would Canon ever consider that?

 

[moreorless]

22 MP is overkill on a APS-C sensor. We need better low-light capabilities, not worse.

I wouldnt be supprized if we see a spilt in crop sensors, the 7D staying at 18 MP offering improved ISO performance and faster FPS and the 70D/650D offering more megapixels.

 

[malasuerte]

Updated AF system would be nice for Rebel, but would Canon ever consider that?

Indeed.

 

[LetTheRightLensIn]

22 MP is overkill on a APS-C sensor. We need better low-light capabilities, not worse.

1. It's not overkill if they want nice 3x3 sampling for video.

2. So tell me how much worse was the 5D2 in terms of SNR than the D700? How much worse will the D800 likely be than the 5D3 in that regard? Exactly.

3. Which will almost certainly have far more base ISO dynamic range the 36MP D800 or the 22MP 5D2? Exactly.

(Granted 22MP is getting to be a lot higher density than any of those cameras....)

 

[jgillespie928]

Good point, BRNexus6. It was a prediction, not a wish list. According to the wiki entry for DiG!C, DiG!C 5 boasts 6 times faster processing and creates 75 percent less noise than the DiG!C 4 processor. It would not surprise me if Canon felt these enhancements in DiG!C would allow a small bump in MP.

 

[Irishpanther]

Cool to see someone actually put down what I've been thinking a while now.

Only a few things I was expecting differently - I would expect them only to use the Digic 5. And I bet they find a way to move the 70D to a higher price.

The 7D2 price is right in line with what my expectations were though. I've seen time and time again people on this forum point out how crowded the APS-C lineup is. With a new 7D you can clear that all out, especially with the new pricing space created with the 5D3 up above 3000 USD. so I would expect the 70D to even push towards 1400 or 1500 USD at introduction.

Totally agree with the new AF systems for each line. I was trying to rationalize some f8 points for the 7D2. If the 1DX gets some, I wouldn't be shocked to see a the 7D2 have a few f8 spots - especially with it's popularity wildlife camera, and therefore the likelihood of it being used with a supertele and extender. I think it'd be necessary for the 1DX to have some f8 points though for this to be a possibility. And then I wonder if Canon would also consider including them even without top performance. Maybe make it a custom function that you had to activate, and so the user would know they are going to experience some performance loss.

 

[idimoe]

These predictions look realistic, I hope they're spot on. The first half of the year looks to be dedicated to FF cameras: 1DX, 5DMK3, D4, D800. Let's hope the second half is dedicated to APS-C cameras: 7DMK2, 70D, 650D, D400, D7100.

 

[dichiaras]

The 9 cross-type AF points would be really nice, but I find it very unlikely that Canon puts such an AF system on a rebel. I hope so, though...

 

[jgillespie928]

Not bad for step 1 of my prediction/T4i. Few places where I was off: (1) the biggie -- Canon stayed with 18MP, (2) it was the DiG!C 5 not 5+ processor, (3) FPS was 5 instead of 4, and (4) the MSRP for body only is $849--one hundred dollars cheaper than my original prediction.

 

[absolutic]

With a big firmware 2.0 coming up for 7D, not sure its replacement is coming soon. Nikon D300s has not been updated for even longer.

 

[unfocused]

Not bad, although missing the sensor is kind of a biggie.

Based on the T4i, I'd say both the 70D and 7D will get touch screen controls and continuous autofocus in movie mode. Not sure about the flip screen for the 7D. Canon may reserve that for consumer-level cameras.

The big question in my mind is whether or not the 7D and 70D will share the same sensor. I'm guessing at least one new sensor, but it's possible we could see two. A 22-24 mp monster in the 70D and 18-20 mp with improved performance in the 7D.

I think your pricing on the 70D may be close, but contrary to conventional wisdom on this forum, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7D come in at about $1,800.

 

[dlleno]

y'all are seeing a new APS-C sensor, in the next 12 months, coming on the heals of the newly introduced 18MP hybrid AF sensor? historical precident suggests that the present t4i sensor will make its way through the rest of the 1.6x ranks.

 

[Loswr]

y'all are seeing a new APS-C sensor, in the next 12 months, coming on the heals of the newly introduced 18MP hybrid AF sensor? historical precident suggests that the present t4i sensor will make its way through the rest of the 1.6x ranks.

I expect a higher MP sensor for the 7DII, incorporating the hybrid PDAF functionality. Note there is a different sensor in the T3/1100D, so Canon is perfectly willing to have multiple APS-C sensors across the lines.

 

[dlleno]

y'all are seeing a new APS-C sensor, in the next 12 months, coming on the heals of the newly introduced 18MP hybrid AF sensor? historical precident suggests that the present t4i sensor will make its way through the rest of the 1.6x ranks.

I expect a higher MP sensor for the 7DII, incorporating the hybrid PDAF functionality. Note there is a different sensor in the T3/1100D, so Canon is perfectly willing to have multiple APS-C sensors across the lines.

true, but Canon didn't lead off with that sensor in the 1100D -- the 12MP sensor first appeared in the 450 and then migrated it to the 1100D as the lowest entry point, as the 15 and 18MP sensors emerged. 7D excepted, Canon historically has historically "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgated them to the xxD and xxxxD later. But that was before 7D...

There is no historical precident for the 7D, unless one considers that it receives the latest and best APS-C sensor, so you may be right and I hope you are in which case 70D would receive the 18MP first, then 7D would follow at 22. I do hope 7D2 sensor is something special. I only worry that if all they do is a MP bump from hybrid AF 18 to hybrid AF 22 (like they did from 15 to 18) then we will really have no ISO improvement at all.

maybe there is still hope for an APS-H body, with some new positive integer on the front, at 22MP...

 

[Loswr]

true, but Canon didn't lead off with that sensor in the 1100D -- the 12MP sensor first appeared in the 450 and then migrated it to the 1100D as the lowest entry point, as the 15 and 18MP sensors emerged. 7D excepted, Canon historically has historically "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgated them to the xxD and xxxxD later. But that was before 7D...

<puts on historian hat>

The 1100D sensor has a greater number of total pixels, although the number of effective pixels is the same as the 450D. That suggests a new sensor, although it's not certain.

• The penultimate 18 MP sensor (before the T4i/650D) debuted in the 7D, then was re-used in the T2i/550D, then the 60D, then the T3i/600D.
• The previous 15 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 50D, then was re-used in the T1i/500D.
• The previous 12 MP APS-C sensor did debut in the XSi/450D, but wasn't re-used anywhere (except, possibly in the T3/1100D).
• The previous 10 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the XTi/400D, and was re-used in the 40D then the XS/1000D
• The previous 8 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 20D, then was re-used in the XT/350D and 30D
• The previous 6 MP APS-C sensor debuted in the 10D, then was re-used in the Digital Rebel/300D.

So...there's only one example of Canon having "led" with sensors in the xxxD rebel and propgating them to the xxD - the 10 MP sensor, but three examples of a sensor debut in the xxD line (prior to the 7D release).

<removes historian hat>

 

[unfocused]

Maybe I'm using too narrow of a definition of a "new" sensor, but I haven't seen any indication that the T4i sensor makes any improvement in sensitivity, dynamic range, noise or resolution. It sounds like the only change to the sensor is to allow for autofocus in live view and movie mode.

I'm not saying that's insignificant. I'm just suggesting that when we talk about sensor improvements, that's not usually what people on this forum are thinking about. This is a sensor change in order to allow another technology (autofocus) to work better. But, is there any indication that Canon has actually improved the performance of the sensor itself? Am I missing something here?

 

[Loswr]

Maybe I'm using too narrow of a definition of a "new" sensor, but I haven't seen any indication that the T4i sensor makes any improvement in sensitivity, dynamic range, noise or resolution. It sounds like the only change to the sensor is to allow for autofocus in live view and movie mode.

I'm not saying that's insignificant. I'm just suggesting that when we talk about sensor improvements, that's not usually what people on this forum are thinking about. This is a sensor change in order to allow another technology (autofocus) to work better. But, is there any indication that Canon has actually improved the performance of the sensor itself? Am I missing something here?

This has been my exact point - yes, technically it's 'new' but have there been in improvements that actually affect the IQ of the sensor?