Canon’s 2024 Roadmap, and the timeline surprised us [CR3]

Jul 21, 2010
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Canon HAVE to get a move on with the R5 MkII. From Yodobashi Japan's latest sales figures, the R5 MkI sales have really dried up, and the only model Canon now have in the top 10 sales list is the R6 MkII (and that's not even in the top 5). They're just handing business over to Sony and Nikon if they don't have an updated body for folks to buy.

Top 10 camera sales:

  1. Sony α7C II body
  2. Sony A9III
  3. Sony α7 IV with kit lens
  4. Sony α7C II with kit lens
  5. Sony α7 IV body
  6. Canon EOS R6 Mark II Body
  7. Nikon Z 8
  8. Hasselblad 907X & CFV 100C
  9. Sony α7R V body
  10. Nikon ZFc with kit lens
Wrong. The R6II is the #1 selling camera, and the R5 is a top seller.

1707832887678.png

Point is data from one store are meaningless (unless your goal is misdirection).

For Japan, at least try BCN who aggregate sales from ~40% of Japanese retailers. All of the top 5 are APS-C (which is totally consistent with the market but shows how single stores aren’t at all representative). Sony has the #1 spot on BCN for last month, Canon has 3 of the top 5 (R10, M50 II and R50). Nice to see Nikon higher in the rankings with the Z30 at #4.

But that last point highlights the relative meaninglessness of even aggregating 40% of Japan sales. The Z30 went from #35 in December to #4 in January. That level of volatility suggests that BCN’s camera data are driven by pretty small unit counts. They're also more general electronic retailer focused, for US folks think Best Buy-type stores, not B&H/Adorama.

Having said that, Sony’s ZV-E10 has been consistently at the top of BCN, and Canon has consistently had about 3 of the top 5 and 5 of the top 10. Only rarely does a FF camera make it into the top 10, usually just after launch or when there’s a big price drop.
 
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john1970

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Pros and agencies will have them for the olympics for sure. Consumers maybe not. R3 was similar.

My heart goes out to all the forum dwellers who are now 'forced' to switch brands because Canon didn't meet a timeline they tied themselves to in their head, and somehow in doing so made non-functional all current gear.

Brian
Good comment. I never understand why people get so upset over timelines. If the R1 comes out in the fall great it will give me more time to set aside the funds so I can make the purchase. In the meantime my Canon R3s work flawlessly. :)
 
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Point is data from one store are meaningless (unless your goal is misdirection).
Lol, don't get butthurt about it... it's just a random data point to illustrate that Canon need a refresh.

Your B&H figure is equally unrepresentative (by your own arguments)... but yep, there are different sales balances in different markets.

Point is that sales do pick up for manufacturers after they release a refresh - and both Sony and Nikon have been riding a wave of releases over the last 12 months, while Canon has been sitting back. I think the OG R5 is still very competitive to be honest, and a bargain at the current reduced price - but people are noticibly holding off for the Mk II, and Canon need to get it on the market and take their money.
 
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They're just handing business over to Sony and Nikon if they don't have an updated body for folks to buy.
Not to worry. In their financial documents Canon forecasts that they will sell 2.80 million interchangeable-lens cameras this year, and that their camera-only revenue will be +3.7% compared to 2023.
 
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Del Paso

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Pros and agencies will have them for the olympics for sure. Consumers maybe not. R3 was similar.

My heart goes out to all the forum dwellers who are now 'forced' to switch brands because Canon didn't meet a timeline they tied themselves to in their head, and somehow in doing so made non-functional all current gear.

Brian
Betrayed by Canon, they'll hopefully join Sony, known for caring for their loved ones and always meeting deadlines announced in forums!
 
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TonyG

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A development announcement for the R1 in April, followed by a later announcement, will be cutting it very fine for the Paris Olympics from 26 July to 11 August 2024.
They will probably have prototypes for certain photographers to try and give feedback. I am curious to see how many might be trying out the A9iii during the games.
The games might end up being a marketing campaign playground by both brands sitting on the sidelines with a white van offering "free candy" if they come into the van lmao.
 
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Not to worry. Canon forecasts that they will sell 2.80 million interchangeable-lens cameras this year, and that their camera-only revenue will be +3.7% compared to 2023.
No doubt they've priced in the R5 MkII release... and whatever other goodies they have lined up :)

I'm sure they'll make a fortune off the RF 35 f1.2 too! :D
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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Not to worry. Canon forecasts that they will sell 2.80 million interchangeable-lens cameras this year, and that their camera-only revenue will be +3.7% compared to 2023.
That's really the take-away. People whine and hand-wring with statements like 'Canon is handing business over to Sony and Nikon', but people have been doing so for years. The names and the 'dire problem for Canon' change, the result is the same. 'Poor low ISO DR', 'worse AF performance', 'late to mirrorless', 'late to full frame mirrorless', 'blocking 3rd party RF lenses', 'no new models this month', etc., etc., etc.

Meanwhile, Canon keeps on dominating the market, remaining with just under a 50% market share, which is greater than the next three competitors combined.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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Point is that sales do pick up for manufacturers after they release a refresh - and both Sony and Nikon have been riding a wave of releases over the last 12 months, while Canon has been sitting back.
Sure, sure. Canon sat back while sales picked up for Sony and Nikon riding their wave of new releases. Funny how the market share numbers for all three didn't change by more than 1% last year. You're welcome to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
 
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Sure, sure. Canon sat back while sales picked up for Sony and Nikon riding their wave of new releases. Funny how the market share numbers for all three didn't change by more than 1% last year. You're welcome to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Some people hold the opinion that the earth is flat. They're quite willing to share that opinion even though doing so makes they look like morons.
Why so defensive? This is a rumor site, we're all Canon enthusiasts, and we're just spitballing about their strategy over the next year. ‍;)

The market shifts all the time; Canon are now all-in on mirrorless, Nikon has rediscovered their mojo, and Sony is throwing everything out there in order to try and compete. Of the three, I think Canon are looking good, and with a lower market share Nikon are interesting in that they can over-spec their releases without as much fear of undercutting their own sales. Sony's strategy is least clear; they've made some strategic errors in the mid-range by releasing a full frame sensor (the 33mpix) that can't run 4k/60 uncropped, but the new a9iii and a7rv have been received well. Interesting times.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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Why so defensive? This is a rumor site, we're all Canon enthusiasts, and we're just spitballing about their strategy over the next year. ‍;)

The market shifts all the time; Canon are now all-in on mirrorless, Nikon has rediscovered their mojo, and Sony is throwing everything out there in order to try and compete. Of the three, I think Canon are looking good, and with a lower market share Nikon are interesting in that they can over-spec their releases without as much fear of undercutting their own sales. Sony's strategy is least clear; they've made some strategic errors in the mid-range by releasing a full frame sensor (the 33mpix) that can't run 4k/60 uncropped, but the new a9iii and a7rv have been received well. Interesting times.
Fair enough... A refresh for most cameras and lenses will come, nothing surprising about that. They will come when Canon decides the time is right, I trust them to know what they 'need' better than any of us. I doubt Canon is taking a loss on the discounted price of the R5, for example, which speaks to the pre-discount margins. But Canon has already stated that lenses drive more profits than bodies, and they're refreshed much less frequently.
 
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Canon HAVE to get a move on with the R5 MkII. From Yodobashi Japan's latest sales figures, the R5 MkI sales have really dried up, and the only model Canon now have in the top 10 sales list is the R6 MkII (and that's not even in the top 5). They're just handing business over to Sony and Nikon if they don't have an updated body for folks to buy.

Top 10 camera sales:

8. Hasselblad 907X & CFV 100C
If that's in the top ten, it is unlikely that the list is representative of sales at large.
 
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TonyG

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Wrong. The R6II is the #1 selling camera, and the R5 is a top seller.
One thing I am curious about is why the Number 1 and top selling Canon Camera and Lenses have all been on constant sales over the past 2 years.
If the demand was truly there, would the rules of supply and demand dictate sales are necessary to sell your product?

Having said that, Sony’s ZV-E10 has been consistently at the top of BCN, and Canon has consistently had about 3 of the top 5 and 5 of the top 10. Only rarely does a FF camera make it into the top 10, usually just after launch or when there’s a big price drop.
Canon Rumors January 20 2024:

Canon takes 3 out of 5 spots in BCN’s top cameras of 2023​

The clear winner was Sony with a total of 3 cameras including the only full-frame camera in the top 10 and commanding the 1st and 2nd place positions. Canon took the next 3 positions to round out the top 5. In a way, this is a much weaker position than Canon has had when the EF Rebels and EOS-M cameras were at their peak, with the EOS-M M50 or the EOS Rebel line usually claiming the number 1 spot on an annual basis for more than several years. #JustSaying
Yup, 2 Years after its launch and with massive price drops (cough cough Canon Frenzy Sales) and the A7iv was in the number 10th spot....
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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One thing I am curious about is why the Number 1 and top selling Canon Camera and Lenses have all been on constant sales over the past 2 years.
If the demand was truly there, would the rules of supply and demand dictate sales are necessary to sell your product?
No idea. Maybe it's like mall jewelry stores in the US – everything is 50% off, all the time.
 
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koenkooi

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I've suspected that the R5II would come soon. Last November 2023, Japan had a large price drop in the retail of the R5. The price has stayed pretty stable for the entire production of the R5. So it was a good indicator that something newer is coming.

I'm really looking forwards to seeing how Canon have progressed their mk II over the previous R5. I wouldn't be suprised to see the same MP caount as the current R5 too. I suspect this is awarm upgrade...not a big upgrade.
Since updated firmware at the level of the R6II/R8 or better is pretty much a given, I'm hoping for the following:
  • Faster full sensor readout
  • Flash support when using the electronic shutter
  • Faster focus stacking
  • Deeper buffer
  • CFe 4.0 support
 
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