Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones

[Loswr]

And today, CaNikon are missing the boat again, because they have no mirrorless FF MILCs ready now and it looks they will not even have one ready within the year.

Nikon just stated that the bloom is off the mirrorless rose, and sales of their MILC line are falling - and faster than expected based on the economy. The boat you refer to might just be the Costa Concordia.

These days, only a few budget-restricted, conservative die-hards insisting on OVF are willing to swallow marketing-crippled FF DSLRs (6D, D610) still priced at more than 1500. All others are buying Fuji APS-C instead and/or are will be buying innovative and more affordable FF-mirrorless cams.

Amazing how the 'few budget-restricted, conservative die-hards' seem to outnumber the 'all others' buying Fuji APS-C...

But as is the case at CR, people always claim to know better ... even it is means ignoring facts staring at them in the face.

+1

 

[Lichtgestalt]

can´t believe the amount of nonsense in this thread.

no wonder so many photographers struggle doing business when they are so bad at grasping economics.

this is not about canon being punished for not being "innovative enough".
this is about a situation that affects all brands.

 

[J.R.]

no wonder so many photographers struggle doing business when they are so bad at grasping economics.

;D ;D

 

[AvTvM]

"Nikon MILCs" ... of course Nikon gets punished. Because their ill-fated dwarf-sensored 1-system does not sell any longer. Even japanese schoolgirls have stopped buying them, despite pink and gold painting.
Truth is simply: end of 2013
* Nikon has not a single MILC worth buying. Only boring me-too consumer-level APSC DSLRs (e.g. D5300). One marketing-crippled FF-DSLR (D610) plus expensive lenses to go with it. D800 is excellent, but most people wanting one, got one by now.
* Canon .. exactly the same. Just insert "EOS-M", "Rebel XXS", "EOD 6D" and "5D III".
Too liittle innovation. Too much drip-feed iteration. Too high prices (for what it is).

Therefore CaNikon are both receiving their well-deserved punishment.

 

[Lee Jay]

it is very simple. Canon and Nikon are being punished for not having brought to market DSLRs that are both affordable and interesting to regular-income photo enthusiasts. Lack of interesting products ... less sales. 1 Million less incrementally boring DSLR-iterations ... hahaha, I love it. Customers are king, after all.

Two years ago (late 2012) Canon and Nikon missed the boat. No compelling and affordable APS-C DSLRs. No D400. No 7D II. Pricing closer to USD 1000 than to 2000. Of course with built- in GPS, Wifi, and in Canon's case EX-RT radio flash trigger. And fully articulated LCD (not just tilt!). For Canon the old 45-point 1 AF system plus a kick-ass 24MP APS-C sensor, half a notch better DR and Hi-ISO than the Nikon D7100 sensor. Nikon would have easily gotten away with the D7100 sensor and AF system (Multicam 3500DX).

And today, CaNikon are missing the boat again, because they have no mirrorless FF MILCs ready now and it looks they will not even have one ready within the year.

These days, only a few budget-restricted, conservative die-hards insisting on OVF are willing to swallow marketing-crippled FF DSLRs (6D, D610) still priced at more than 1500. All others are buying Fuji APS-C instead and/or are will be buying innovative and more affordable FF-mirrorless cams.

CaNikon are in for a lot of punishment. Well deserved.

Depending on specs and performance I'd be willing to pay as much as $300 for a FF mirrorless Canon.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

Therefore CaNikon are both receiving their well-deserved punishment.

ah and who exactly is the new star on the camera sky?

olympus, fuji, panasonic or sony? ;D

i guess we will see when they show their numbers......

 

[danski0224]

A simple add-on accessory provides GPS tagging to the 1D X and 5DIII. I highly doubt that many people opted for the 6D over the 5DIII for built-in GPS, rather, the overwhelming majority made that choice because the 6D costs much less.

It would have been nice if this GPS was included in the upper end bodies.

Maybe there are technical reasons why it wasn't.

On the surface, it seems that there is significant intentional fragmentation within the Canon lineup with features that should be common within the line. This could be one of those features and WiFi is another that comes to mind.

I would have far more interest in either of those features than the movie capacity that is included in the camera bodies.

Choosing a camera body for GPS features means I give up many possible AF points that I find useful for off-center composition. There is a huge price gulf between the 6D, 5DII/III and the 1DX or future rumored 1DXs. I would suspect that the number of off-center picture composers outnumber the camera users that really and truly need all those AF points for action shooting.

Going from the 5DIII to the 6D to pick up internal GPS features seems very unlikely (excluding other revolutionary changes, 5DIII to "5DIV" for internal GPS is also unlikely- at least for me). So much is given up in other areas. I can understan product differentiation through sensor size, megapixels, ISO range, viewfinder, AF points/speed, metering and so forth. If internal GPS and/or WiFi was available across the 6D, 5D and 1DX lines, would this feature really cannibalize sales?

From my perspective as a product user, keeping GPS and/or WiFi out of the mix makes no sense- I realize that I have no knowledge of legit technical issues or product development timelines that may have excluded internal GPS or WiFi features. My phones have had GPS and WiFi for a long time without an external add-on, so the exclusion of this tech from an expensive camera is especially baffling.

I do not own the GP-E2, nor have I seen one in person. Based on a quick search of online reviews, the device is either connected to the hotshoe or to the camera via a cable. Either seems to pose potential pitfalls compared to having the GPS internal to the camera body: no flash or snag the cable on something. There also seems to be some issues with the type of files generated by the Canon GPS unit, but this may have been "fixed" with later versions of 3rd party programs such as Lightroom.

I would be interested in feedback concerning the GP-E2.

 

[J.R.]

Therefore CaNikon are both receiving their well-deserved punishment.

ah and who exactly is the new star on the camera sky?

None ... the poster however in this case has a fascination for the new Sony cameras and with all the gushing emotion probably he is oblivious to the fact that sales of cameras are on the decline worldwide and not just because Canon has not come up with a mirrorless FF.

If this were the auto industry you would be forgiven to believe that it has been receiving its "well deserved punishment" because they haven't innovated enough to make a car that flies!

 

[Ruined]

Therefore CaNikon are both receiving their well-deserved punishment.

ah and who exactly is the new star on the camera sky?

None ... the poster however in this case has a fascination for the new Sony cameras and with all the gushing emotion probably he is oblivious to the fact that sales of cameras are on the decline worldwide and not just because Canon has not come up with a mirrorless FF.

If this were the auto industry you would be forgiven to believe that it has been receiving its "well deserved punishment" because they haven't innovated enough to make a car that flies!

Bad analogy, as I think people actually want and would buy a flying car.

Mirrorless sales, on the other hand, are doing even worse than DSLR sales and going in the wrong direction. As cameraphones continue to get better (look at Lumia 1020), I believe they will eclipse mirrorless as the portable high quality camera. You can't get much more portable than being with you all the time, and mirrorless almost always makes some sacrifices in quality or functionality for the small size. Pros will use DSLR, consumers will use cameraphones, mirrorless will have little market left IMO. Sales data appears to support this is already happening.

 

[J.R.]

Bad analogy, as I think people actually want and would buy a flying car.

Not really ... the point I was trying to make is that the auto-makers were struggling because the economy was in bad shape and not because they were not innovating enough.

 

[Ruined]

"Nikon MILCs" ... of course Nikon gets punished. Because their ill-fated dwarf-sensored 1-system does not sell any longer. Even japanese schoolgirls have stopped buying them, despite pink and gold painting.
Truth is simply: end of 2013
* Nikon has not a single MILC worth buying. Only boring me-too consumer-level APSC DSLRs (e.g. D5300). One marketing-crippled FF-DSLR (D610) plus expensive lenses to go with it. D800 is excellent, but most people wanting one, got one by now.
* Canon .. exactly the same. Just insert "EOS-M", "Rebel XXS", "EOD 6D" and "5D III".
Too liittle innovation. Too much drip-feed iteration. Too high prices (for what it is).

Therefore CaNikon are both receiving their well-deserved punishment.

Ah, yes, Sony had a much better idea by coming out with a dwarf full frame camera that requires full frame dslr-sized lenses. Therefore completing negating any advantage of a small body, and actually making it a disadvantage as the lenses become too large and heavy to grip on a tiny body. Handling a big lens on a micro camera is going to be a mess, no pro would want that. Heck I wouldn't even want a big lens on a rebel, nevermind anything as small as an a7!

But sure, you can say "Hey look at my little nifty micro camera," then observe the awkward look on people's faces when the a7 looks like a fat guy in a little coat once you strap on a zoom lens.

 

[Loswr]

Therefore CaNikon are both receiving their well-deserved punishment.

By all means, don't let your opinion blind you to the facts. Canon is still outselling Nikon, and Nikon is still far outselling FuSonOly. Your implication that Canon and Nikon are being 'punished' by FuSonOly is unfounded, bogus...and also completely wrong.

This thread is about Canon cutting their FY2013 forecast by 7.7%. Included in that is a projected drop in sales of dSLRs/lenses of 3%. Olympus predicts a drop in PEN sales of 12% - four times the relative decrease of Canon (of course, in absolute terms Canon's 3% drop may well represent more cameras than Olympus even sells!).

So, who is punishing who? :

Actually, the answer is the global economy is punishing everyone. Your assertion that FuSonOly is punishing Canon would be like saying Canon's camera sales are the cause of Fuji's announced cut in the forecast for Subaru car sales.

Feel free to peddle your doom-speak and unfounded, biased opinions somewhere else...might I suggest DPR?

 

[AvTvM]

It's so obvoius... Don't you guys see it?

• Canikon get punished for making uninnovative market-differentiated, crippled ever-so-boring dslrs and crappy milcs (canon: too sluggish, nikon: speedy enough but midget-sensored)
• oly and mFT get punished for using quarter-sized sensors in full-sized bodies and trying to charge APS-C price for it. Plus all the retro-styling crap. Thats limits their market to a smaller than necessary segment.
• fuji is not doing as well as they could. They have painted themselves into the retro corner as well. And limit themselves to exotic APS-c transx sensors. Plus crop lenses at prices that will get you decent ff lenses as well.
• sony is in a mess, with all a-lenses, e-lenses and bodies, everything in aps-c and in ff. And while they are to be commended for bringing ff-milcs, they are coming up just a bit shy of a home run. Ibis, better af, better battery - and they would have scored really big time.

And, read my lips: i no fanboy for any brand. I will post here as long as i please. And i will not spend my money on any inadequate camera system. And neither should you.

 

[justsomedude]

Therefore CaNikon are both receiving their well-deserved punishment.

So, who is punishing who? :

Actually, the answer is the global economy is punishing everyone. Your assertion that FuSonOly is punishing Canon would be like saying Canon's camera sales are the cause of Fuji's announced cut in the forecast for Subaru car sales.

Feel free to peddle your doom-speak and unfounded, biased opinions somewhere else...might I suggest DPR?

Considering that many outfits are posting record profits, your "global economy" argument is actually the one that is unfounded. Just because Canon writes "negative impact of economic deterioration" in a quarterly report, does not make it fact. Many businesses are booming right now, selling luxury items at high costs (see Google, Apple iPhones/laptops, Sony Playstation, Xbox, etc.).

The reality is simple: consumer trends are changing, and Canon has not tacked to follow those market shifts. Many people have complained here in recent months/years (me being one of them), often times to the chagrin of the "long term" forum members. See your own post, for example: "might I suggest DPR?" You and the Canon-faithful are welcome to employ a dismissive attitude towards consumer complaints, but this is where it gets you; a deteriorating company stuck in a rut and unable to quickly respond to market factors. Here we are, almost two years out from the D800 launch with no competing body in sight! That is shameful. And just ask Microsoft how well an entrenched/consumer-unfriendly mentality is working out for them with Windows8.

In the post above, AvTvM really nailed it - these companies simply decided to ignore consumers, and now they are suffering as a result. The companies that evolved and innovated are thriving - even in a less than ideal global economy. Those that don't implement dramatic shifts in corporate direction will either stagnate or wither and fade away. Only time will tell.

For me, I remain a Canon enthusiast. I'm well invested in glass and have three bodies that serve me well on a professional level (5D3, 6D and 60D). However, for my recent overseas travel adventure, I just picked up a Fuji x100 on eBay. I must say it has forced me to re-evaluate my position regarding brand-loyalty. As long as other camera users (both professionals and enthusiasts) continue to evaluate competing equipment, and as long as Canon refuses to accept the incredibly competitive marketplace, they will only further erode their position as leader in the dSLR sector.

I hope they can right the ship.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

It's so obvoius... Don't you guys see it?

• Canikon get punished for making uninnovative market-differentiated, crippled ever-so-boring dslrs and crappy milcs (canon: too sluggish, nikon: speedy enough but midget-sensored)
• oly and mFT get punished for using quarter-sized sensors in full-sized bodies and trying to charge APS-C price for it. Plus all the retro-styling crap. Thats limits their market to a smaller than necessary segment.
• fuji is not doing as well as they could. They have painted themselves into the retro corner as well. And limit themselves to exotic APS-c transx sensors. Plus crop lenses at prices that will get you decent ff lenses as well.
• sony is in a mess, with all a-lenses, e-lenses and bodies, everything in aps-c and in ff. And while they are to be commended for bringing ff-milcs, they are coming up just a bit shy of a home run. Ibis, better af, better battery - and they would have scored really big time.

And, read my lips: i no fanboy for any brand. I will post here as long as i please. And i will not spend my money on any inadequate camera system. And neither should you.

sorry, but you sound like that ankorwat guy with your constant repeats.

no we don´t agree with your points about canon being punished.. how often we have to repeat that?

posting your opinions over and over will not change the facts or our opinion.

The companies that evolved and innovated are thriving - even in a less than ideal global economy.

mhm....aha.. and which CAMERA maker would that be?
leica? ;D

The reality is simple: consumer trends are changing, and Canon has not tacked to follow those market shifts.

so you think canon should start making smartphones?

at one point the market for DSLR cameras is saturated.
there is no two digit grow anymore, not even a status quo... sales will decline.
after a decade this point seems to be reached now.

i would not buy a P&S anymore.. but i have in the past.
my parents (over 60) would not buy a DSLR or any expensive camera, because their smartphone cameras are good enough (for them). my father was shooting with an AE1 and T90 before.

NO INNOVATION FROM CANON (that some geeks wish for like a 40+ MP sensor, 14.4 stops of DR) WOULD CHANGE THAT!

40+ MP and more DR is stuff only a minority wants anyway.
that´s something you people here don´t get.
this forum has a few thousand members.... but there are millions of rebel owners out there who don´t care.

canon would sell more cameras if the rebels had a "direct-to-facebook" connection and an android like OS.
nobody outside some geek forums cares about 40+ MP and 1 stop DR more or less.

my niece loves to take photos but she would never carry a DSLR or any other camera around.
even a small m43 camera is an extra piece she has to carry. her samsung galaxy does everything she needs. and here photos are instantly uploaded to facebook.

do you think she is interested more in sharing here pictures easily..... or having a 40+ MP file transfered to facebook?

on the other side people who are a bit more interested in image quality already have a camera.
my uncle has a D90 and no intention to upgrade.
there are not many people out there who pay 2000-3000 euro every 4 years for a new camera.

before smartphones... my parents and my niece would have bought a dedicated camera to take pictures.

so yes times are changing.. but the problem is... the innovations you guys want will not solve the problem.

 

[Loswr]

Many businesses are booming right now, selling luxury items at high costs (see Google, Apple iPhones/laptops, Sony Playstation, Xbox, etc.).

Of the products you highlight, only Apple laptops exceed the price of entry-level dSLRs. Not a terribly valid economic argument.

You and the Canon-faithful are welcome to employ a dismissive attitude towards consumer complaints, but this is where it gets you; a deteriorating company stuck in a rut and unable to quickly respond to market factors. Here we are, almost two years out from the D800 launch with no competing body in sight! That is shameful.

The reality is simple: the 5DIII is the competing body to the D800, and it's outselling the D800 by a wide margin. Consider that with many lenses, the D800 barely outresolves the 5DIII, and once you take it off a tripod, it's actually worse. If MP mattered most to the market, everyone would ditch their dSLRs for Nokia phones with 41 MP. Want to be the first of us to make the leap into the brave new world?

In the post above, AvTvM really nailed it - these companies simply decided to ignore consumers...

Well, they're ignoring him, anyway. I find that my needs are being met just fine.

Are the days of the dSLR numbered? Quite likely...someday, cell phones will have 10 gigapixel 3D lightfield cameras that record continuously at 120 fps, and images will be instantly processed with though-controlled Photoshop Mobile. That's a ways off, though. In the meantime, that innovative replacement to the dSLR, the MILC, is seeing sales drop faster than dSLRs, despite their lower prices.

 

[justsomedude]

so yes times are changing.. but the problem is... the innovations you guys want will not solve the problem.

I agree with you on many of your points, Lichtgestalt, but the problem is one of Canon (and the entire dSLR industry's) own making. Cranking out an "updated" camera every three years at an exorbitant price-premium with minimal, if any, feature changes, is not a way to run a business or get brand loyalty. Yes, it's worked for Apple, but they are the lone wolf in this regard and can run their business that way due to their rabid fanbase. dSLR users by nature, are a much more finicky bunch that won't be duped by minor spec improvements. The "check out our new dual-pixel AF!! Now give us 1,200 of your hard earned dollars!!" marketing approach just doesn't work on the majority of us. We're simply not that impressed by the cost per feature. And as you stated, many of us already have dSLRs and the image quality is fine, so getting us to shell out $3,200 for the next FF consumer model is a tough sell. Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters.

That said, I still think massive innovations can be made. I, for one, am still clamoring for a sensor that mimic's the dynamic range of film. I don't need 40+ MP, but having better shadow performance would be something I would gladly pay for. (and something I am still envious of regarding the D800)

But this is all nit-picking silliness that only demonstrates the point I think we all agree on... the dSLR manufacturers are on an unsustainable trajectory. Without major shifts, and I'm not sure what those shifts should be, they will only hasten their own loss of market share.

 

[Orangutan]

It's so obvoius... Don't you guys see it?

In the post above, AvTvM really nailed it - these companies simply decided to ignore consumers

OK, let me see if I understand you: you seem to be saying that consumers are punishing Canon (and others) not by buying a similar product from a competing brand, but rather by not upgrading frequently and enthusiastically, regardless of brand? I.e., consumer says "70D isn't a big enough upgrade from the 60D, I'll keep what I have for another two years" rather than "I'll go buy a D610 and Nikon lenses?"

If that's your point at least it's remotely plausible, but it would take some serious market research to show it to be more than speculation.

Edit: I should note that this happens to be true for me: the 70D did not offer enough to make me upgrade from my 60D. However, I'm only one example, so this says nothing for the market as a whole.

 

[justsomedude]

Of the products you highlight, only Apple laptops exceed the price of entry-level dSLRs. Not a terribly valid economic argument.

Given that the entire article points to consumers using $600 iPhones in place of $600 entry-level dSLRs, I think it's an incredibly valid point. And one that I'm sure Canon's market strategist won't be as quick to ignore.

The reality is simple: the 5DIII is the competing body to the D800, and it's outselling the D800 by a wide margin.

That's all fine and dandy, but the 5D3 still can't hold a candle to the dynamic range of the D800. Sure, when you throw in DUAL-ISO hacks you can get there, but out of the box shadow performance is far from equal.

Well, they're ignoring him, anyway. I find that my needs are being met just fine.

That's fine, I just don't think ignoring those who are not 100% satisfied by Canon is a logical approach. And telling them to go to another forum seems downright condescending and rude. I think the best use of forums is to discuss opposing viewpoints, not banish them.

It would behoove you to understand the mentality of the dissatisfied user base. For there are many of us who still continue to use Canon loyally, on a daily basis as part of our business. We just find their approach to their product line "evolution" to be somewhat, how shall I say this, disingenuous with respect to the advanced shooter.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters.

yep.. a decade ago most people could only dream to have a digital SLR (i was one of them).
i was shooting film for a relativ long time. i switched to digital at the end of 2008.

today most who are interested in a DSLR have one .. or two..or three.. or..

and as you wrote, 10x15cm prints from a 8 year old camera don´t look much different then from a 1D X.

and that´s what most people do... 10x15cm or 13x18cm prints. if they print out photos at all.
that´s why my uncle is still happy with his D90.

this market can´t grow forever.

im also not really interested in a mirrorless DSLR.
not yet... i have seen all the latest EVF and im still not 100% happy with them.

the size advantages of a mirroless is not that important for me.
the current canon DSLR´s have the right size for my hands.
handling feels natural. i don´t want a tiny camera body.

and when i want a camera i can carry all day in my pocket, all mirrorless FF cameras would be to big anyway.