Canon EOS 80D Will Be The Next DSLR Replaced [CR1]

[Talys]

Personally, I think there will be a 5D consolidation.

Are you saying a future 5D supercamera is coming in the vein of the D850 / A7R3? High MP *and* high fps?

I only see Canon following suit here if the D850 is stealing Canon business hand over fist, and we don't have any indication that is happening yet. I think a yet-higher MP / 5 fps rig in the 5DS2/5DSR2 lets Canon continue to offer two pro FF bodies in the $3k neighborhood, which is something they very much want to keep doing.

- A

Well, it's entirely possible that they keep two 5D models (down from three), but my guess is that if they did that, it would be more along the Sony direction of A7/A7R, where they are very similar except for megapixels.

I think that there will almost certainly be a 5D model that has a megapixel/fps mix that is competitive with D850, because Canon would be loathe to release a new flagship enthusiast DSLR in 2019 that isn't competitive in headline stats with the 2017 D850.

The way I see it:

Scenario A) The simplest route would be to super 5DSR. Everyone would love a 5DSR with 50 megapixel dual pixel, Compressed CR3, 9 fps, and a little better high ISO performance.

Then, the question becomes, do they make another model that sits above the 6D2, or just bump the 6D series to fill that gap?

Scenario B) The alternate route would be to drop a buffed up 5D4, with more megapixels and a faster drive speed that makes it essentially a Canon D850.

The 5DSR would be a higher megapixel, slower drive version of this, like you suggest. I'm just not sure how popular 50-60 megapixels would be compared to 42-ish, because that's a much smaller difference than 50 vs. 30 megapixels.

Scenario C) They could, of course, keep 5D5 a 30 megapixel camera. But I really, really doubt that, because more megapixels sells new bodies.

I see the most likely as (A), because it would make for the splashiest launch before lucrative Tokyo 2020 sales.

I've played with the Nikon. The problem with that lens is that it is not a satisfyingly sharp at 500mm. The niche it fills is people who don't want to send a lot, and want a first party lens -- because I can't see how it is better than the Sigma in any way other than it that.

I woudn't want that lens either. It's too heavy and has real competition from the 150-600s. The interesting lens is the Nikkor 300mm f/4 PF, which is very sharp and light and goes well with the 1.4xTC. Currently, you would have to rip the 400mm DO II out of my dead hands, and I wish Canon would update its smaller and slower primes.

Exactly. If Canon wanted a me-too consumer long reach zoom, I'd much rather see something competitive in performance with the 150-600s, which set a higher bar.

It would be great to see Canon update their smaller/slower/less expensive primes!

 

[ahsanford]

I think that there will almost certainly be a 5D model that has a megapixel/fps mix that is competitive with D850, because Canon would be loathe to release a new flagship enthusiast DSLR in 2019 that isn't competitive in headline stats with the 2017 D850.

"Flagship enthusiast" -- that's not a thing.

But to your point -- the 5D3 never matched the D800/D800E/D810 for MP or dynamic range and that never stopped it from selling like gangbusters. As Canon has showed time and time again, Canon doesn't have to match anyone's specs -- in fact, doing so leads to a higher production cost and reduces their margins unnecessarily. Consider: they put sensor architecture circa 2010 into a 6D2 and it's selling just fine without 4K, without IBIS, without BSI illumination, without without without. Enthusiasts were pissed, but to Canon, the fact that the 6D2 is selling well without having to give that market the better sensor tech is a win: Canon enjoys higher margins on the 6D2 than if they put a pricier sensor in there and the 5D4 is now thought of as being unassailably better (other than flipscreen), which in turn protects its price.

The way I see it:

Scenario A) The simplest route would be to super 5DSR. Everyone would love a 5DSR with 50 megapixel dual pixel, Compressed CR3, 9 fps, and a little better high ISO performance.

Then, the question becomes, do they make another model that sits above the 6D2, or just bump the 6D series to fill that gap?

No new product required. If they did this, the 5D4 would just (with age) shift downmarket and Canon would be good (6D2) / better (5D4) / best (5DS2) portftolio just like Nikon. I don't think Canon woud get $4k for that supercamera, so they'd swoop in around $3799 and the 5D4's price would have to drop under $3k... Kind of like what happened when the original 5DS was announced.

And I think a supercamera (which very well may happen!) would create a prestige perspective problem. 5DS and 5D3/4 lived at similar levels of prestige/feature set/price with the notion that one delivered detail and the other was the all-battlefield 'do everything' option. A supercamera obsoletes those distinctions and devalues the other product line faster than if they stuck to their guns and just made a 5DS sequel with even more data but limited fps, IMHO.

- A

 

[RGF]

i suspect that we will first see 1Dx Mark III before the 7D M3 emerges.

Will there be a 1Dx M3 this year? Rumors are that the Nikon D6 is due this year so possibly. The two bodies tend to appear at similar times.

 

[privatebydesign]

i suspect that we will first see 1Dx Mark III before the 7D M3 emerges.

Will there be a 1Dx M3 this year? Rumors are that the Nikon D6 is due this year so possibly. The two bodies tend to appear at similar times.

No chance. The 1DX MkIII will be out in 2020 in time for the Tokyo Olympics and not before.

 

[unfocused]

i suspect that we will first see 1Dx Mark III before the 7D M3 emerges.

Will there be a 1Dx M3 this year? Rumors are that the Nikon D6 is due this year so possibly. The two bodies tend to appear at similar times.

No chance. The 1DX MkIII will be out in 2020 in time for the Tokyo Olympics and not before.

I can't imagine why anyone would think the 1Dx III would be out before 2020.

 

[unfocused]

The way I see it...

I think you better get your eyes checked.

Canon already has their product segments figured out. There is zero reason to change.

• 1Dx II – Flagship for those who need/want an indestructible body, high fps, sophisticated autofocus, etc.
• 5D IV – Professional wedding and portrait photographers' workhorse. Most versatile camera for all-around use. The full frame camera that most enthusiasts aspire to.
• 5Ds/5Dsr – Niche camera for those wanting the highest possible resolution. Pixel peepers delight. If you want to print wall-sized images and examine them up close, this is your camera. To make it affordable, Canon recycles the current 5D frame and still charges a premium to buyers.
• 6D – "Bargain" entry-level full frame. Built so it can be discounted 25% a few months after release and still earn a profit for Canon. The camera critics hate and buyers love.
• 7D – "Mini 1Dx." Offers virtually everything that the 1 series offers except with an APS-C sensor. Great for birding and sports in good light when distance limited -- and being distance limited is almost always a given in birding.
• XXD – The 5D of APS-C cameras (not exactly, but close enough) For those who don't need the build quality and fps of the 7D, but want a serious camera for serious enthusiasts without paying the cost of entry into full frame.
• Everything else: A broad selection of APS-C bodies for every price range, so that Canon doesn't leave any buyers on the table.

It's not rocket science and there is no reason for Canon to change a formula that is so obviously working well for them.

 

[ahsanford]

Will there be a 1Dx M3 this year? Rumors are that the Nikon D6 is due this year so possibly. The two bodies tend to appear at similar times.

No. Again, I point people to either the Northlight (pan down, you'll see it) or Wikipedia for Canon's ILC platforms' historical calendars. Before 2020 with a 1DX3 would be a near total shock.

There are variations for earthquakes and supply chain interruptions and what, but Canon is (in general) a creature of habit with its releases. If anything, they trend a little slower to refresh over time b/c (just speculation) they continue to bulk up with new product lines at time goes on.

- A

 

[ahsanford]

Canon already has their product segments figured out. There is zero reason to change.

I agree, but change may be coming. Canon made may slide into making the 5DS2 a supercamera 'one camera to rule them all' by default due the foolish fps decision on the 5D4.

The 5 series, in chronological order since the 5D3:

5D3 --> 22 x 6
5DS --> 50 x 5 + anti-flicker
5D4 --> 30 x 7 + DPAF + DPRAW + touchscreen + on-chip sensor + highly cropped 4K + wifi/NFC/GPS
5DS2 --> ???

With the 5DS2, if Canon goes all in on resolution with (say) 75 x 5 + everything above but leaves out the 4K, I suppose you could argue that the 5D4 still has a unique role to play: it has a higher framerate, it has 4K, etc.

But if Canon goes (say) 50 x 9 or 60 x 7 and puts 4K or a tilty-flippy screen on it --> eek . They may not have meant to do it, but other than pure pixel level high ISO quality -- which a downsampled 5DS2 file will probably lessen the value of -- anything the 5D4 can do, the 5DS2 can do equally or better... ergo, it's a supercamera.

I happen to agree with you that Canon has a clear strategy -- you so well laid it out. But the flipping 7 fps decision on the 5D4 may force their hand. Had the 5D4 gone 30 x 9 I doubt it would have stolen 1DX2 business and it would have set them up far better to maintain price and 'prestige parity' after a 5DS2 arrives. Now, in the wake of a sea of sickening throughput supercameras (A99-II, A7R3, D850), Canon might follow suit fps-wise with the 5DS2 and blow the 5D4 into a lower market position.

- A

 

[Talys]

The way I see it...

I think you better get your eyes checked.

Canon already has their product segments figured out. There is zero reason to change.

Canon already has their product segments figured out. There is zero reason to change.

I agree, but change may be coming. Canon made may slide into making the 5DS2 a supercamera 'one camera to rule them all' by default due the foolish fps decision on the 5D4.

There is no argument from me that Canon has a successful formula and that they know what they're doing. I also mentioned some sort of convergence as a likely possibility, not a certainty.

Basically, it comes down the what ahsanford lays out in megapixels x fps for the various models. I think that we can all agree that in the next 5D iterations, drive speed and pixel density will continue to increase on every major model that Canon puts out, right?

I mean, I really don't think 5DS will stay at 5 fps, any more than I think that 5D will stay at 30 megapixels. So if Canon kept them separate, you might see, what... 60+ megapixels x 6.5 fps on the 5DS and 42-ish megapixels x 8.5 fps on 5D4? Something like that?

The problem becomes that both drive speed and resolution have diminishing returns as you increase them -- and at some point, you end up with cameras that are very samey. It's my criticism about 77D and 80D -- they are just too similar, and often, people make buying decisions based on which one has a good grey market Amazon or eBay or refurb price rather than which one is better suited.

It's just my two bits. Canon will do what it will do, and I'm sure I'll be attracted to one of the options. I will almost certainly upgrade to a 5D model at some point... as long as they put a flippy in at least one of them

 

[ahsanford]

There is no argument from me that Canon has a successful formula and that they know what they're doing.

Canon does have a successful formula: it's the #1 selling brand in ILCs year after year! In addition, Canon has clearly segmented the market into targeted groups, are fielding products across groups, and are building/maintaining the brands therein. It certainly appears that they know what they're doing.

Now, we may not like their gameplan/strategy to win the market -- goodness knows, we all are armchair quarterbacks here -- but few can doubt they've been successful.

- A

 

[The3o5FlyGuy]

4k is just a START.... tons of features should be added if they want to even compete with other brands at this point

 

[transpo1]

Will it be useable 4K or M50 4K?

Was that a dig at the crop, lack of DPAF with 4K or the codec/compression they chose?

You'll have to be more specific. ;D

- A

I’m guessing it was all 3, since all 3 are dig-worthy

VERY interesting that Canon will be adding 4K to “all non-Rebel” bodies moving forward. If we were to believe certain members of the forum, we would think 4K was not necessary, etc. Apparently, Canon, the #1 leader in sales, has finally caught up on its market research and realized that it matters.

 

[Canondude2018]

What a bunch of garbage. You have no idea when the 90D is coming out. Just like you have no clue when you said the 70-200mm 4.0L IS II was coming out in April.

 

[tomscott]

The 7DMKII and 5DS/R are niche products to be on a quick refresh. That being said it would be nice for them to have got the newer tech as they are replaced on a 4-5 year rotation which is incredibly frustrating for those users. You could wear through 2 of each bodies each as a professional in that time.

Im selling my 7DMKII at the moment as I just haven't been using it and eBay didn't even have a template preset for that body! like it doesn't exist! shows how niche they are. There are currently only 3 cameras for sale (including mine) on ebay UK that are auctions not by it now... they arent that easy to get hold of.

 

[unfocused]

The way I see it...

I think you better get your eyes checked.

Canon already has their product segments figured out. There is zero reason to change.

Upon further review. That sounded snarkier than I meant it to be. Apologies.

There is no argument from me that Canon has a successful formula and that they know what they're doing. I also mentioned some sort of convergence as a likely possibility, not a certainty.

Basically, it comes down the what ahsanford lays out in megapixels x fps for the various models. I think that we can all agree that in the next 5D iterations, drive speed and pixel density will continue to increase on every major model that Canon puts out, right?

I mean, I really don't think 5DS will stay at 5 fps, any more than I think that 5D will stay at 30 megapixels. So if Canon kept them separate, you might see, what... 60+ megapixels x 6.5 fps on the 5DS and 42-ish megapixels x 8.5 fps on 5D4? Something like that?

The problem becomes that both drive speed and resolution have diminishing returns as you increase them -- and at some point, you end up with cameras that are very samey. It's my criticism about 77D and 80D -- they are just too similar, and often, people make buying decisions based on which one has a good grey market Amazon or eBay or refurb price rather than which one is better suited.

It's just my two bits. Canon will do what it will do, and I'm sure I'll be attracted to one of the options. I will almost certainly upgrade to a 5D model at some point... as long as they put a flippy in at least one of them

Good points. I do agree that convergence is a marketing problem for Canon (and other manufacturers as well). It's not just megapixels and frames per second, it's true of almost all features. Each generation gets better weathersealing, better autofocus, etc., so the distance between the 1DXII and the 5DIV narrows and the distance between the 5DIV and 6D II narrows as well.

In some ways, the only "safe" area is the space between the 1Dx and the 7D, which is clearly defined by the sensor size. "Safe" in that Canon can pretty much give the 7D all the features of the 1D, and still have the two clearly delineated by sensor size.

Where this all leads I don't know. Part of me thinks we are fast nearing a point of diminishing returns on resolution, but each time I think that, someone comes out with a higher megapixel model that becomes the industry standard.

I do know though, that I am getting a little tired of having to buy 4TB portable drives every month or two as these larger file sizes and higher frame rates eat up space at an incredible pace when you shoot sports.

 

[Sharlin]

VERY interesting that Canon will be adding 4K to “all non-Rebel” bodies moving forward. If we were to believe certain members of the forum, we would think 4K was not necessary, etc. Apparently, Canon, the #1 leader in sales, has finally caught up on its market research and realized that it matters.

That's a silly strawman. Nobody said that 4K is never needed. Obviously it was coming at some point, the question was just whether it was needed a year or three ago. Canon can afford to take its time.

 

[ahsanford]

Good points. I do agree that convergence is a marketing problem for Canon (and other manufacturers as well). It's not just megapixels and frames per second, it's true of almost all features. Each generation gets better weathersealing, better autofocus, etc., so the distance between the 1DXII and the 5DIV narrows and the distance between the 5DIV and 6D II narrows as well.

In some ways, the only "safe" area is the space between the 1Dx and the 7D, which is clearly defined by the sensor size. "Safe" in that Canon can pretty much give the 7D all the features of the 1D, and still have the two clearly delineated by sensor size.

I see where you're going here, but I think that we can be doing the products a disservice just by looking at the horsepower specs and sensor size of each model. Yes, I recognize I just did this on the 5DS2 vs. 5D4 argument, but a lot of the 'other stuff' at the 5-series level is similar.

And that other stuff is why convergence isn't such an inevitable event. Canon's pretty effective at putting stuff above and beyond 'the main stuff under the hood', first 3-4 specs you look at on a spec sheet, etc. into better bodies. Don't forget that better bodies get better metering, far deeper menus and customization, more slots, less plastic and more metal, etc.

But I do agree that convergence or overlap is inevitable if Canon isn't putting new exclusive worth-pulling-out-your-CC-on-day-one features in the higher end cameras -- Canon must continue to pump exciting new features into the top end to more 'finely marble' the buying decisions. It used to be DPAF, anti-flicker, etc. and now that's becoming standard. Lately, it has been 4K, on-chip ADC sensors, DPRAW, etc. but most of that too will eventually be everywhere (6D3 will get 80D-level sensor tech by 2021 I'm projecting :).

So I'd like to see more 'oh wow I want that' tech that isn't horsepower/MP/4K related. When is spot metering at any AF point coming to the 5D line? When can they automate or provide deeper AFMA options for lenses? When might we see a cartridge-like modular LCD mount so we can change out from fixed to tilty-flippy without having to change product lines because our preferred one didn't get a tilty-flippy this time?

- A

 

[Talys]

Upon further review. That sounded snarkier than I meant it to be. Apologies.

No worries, bud

Good points. I do agree that convergence is a marketing problem for Canon (and other manufacturers as well). It's not just megapixels and frames per second, it's true of almost all features. Each generation gets better weathersealing, better autofocus, etc., so the distance between the 1DXII and the 5DIV narrows and the distance between the 5DIV and 6D II narrows as well.

In some ways, the only "safe" area is the space between the 1Dx and the 7D, which is clearly defined by the sensor size. "Safe" in that Canon can pretty much give the 7D all the features of the 1D, and still have the two clearly delineated by sensor size.

Where this all leads I don't know. Part of me thinks we are fast nearing a point of diminishing returns on resolution, but each time I think that, someone comes out with a higher megapixel model that becomes the industry standard.

I do know though, that I am getting a little tired of having to buy 4TB portable drives every month or two as these larger file sizes and higher frame rates eat up space at an incredible pace when you shoot sports.

Yeah, I agree, it most certainly is not all about megapixels and fps; it's a terrible simplification of the product matrix, but those two specs are the ones that keep inching forward and the easiest for camera manufacturers to point to as a reason to upgrade.

Personally, I am happy with ~ 30 megapixels and ~ 8 fps. Unless sensor noise with higher ISOs improves, 42-50 megapixels is probably as high as I care for, and I would start limiting frame rates much higher than the current 7fps 5D4 (because I don't want 10 pictures that all look the same). The exception, I guess, is with portraiture, when the tiniest difference as the subject moves can be "the shot". But it's a lot of work culling those.

On the 5DS side, the three things that they could do that are not spec-related that would make me quite happy and a potential customer would be a more responsive camera when reviewing photos, a touch flippy screen, and a better crop mode (ie not JPEG). I would probably want a very slightly faster drive speed -- 6 to 6.5 fps would do the trick, for me.

On the 5D4, the only thing I'm really looking for is a flippy screen. It's an otherwise perfect camera. Yet, I think the next version will have a little more drive speed and resolution; like ahsanford said, I think 7fps was a mistake on this camera.

The one thing that Canon doesn't have is a faster FPS full frame DSLR that isn't 1D sized. I don't personally need it, but I can understand why some would want one. It would also be really nice to have the 1D autofocus speed -- particularly with extender --- on an ungripped-sized body.

For the record, I'm like you. I keep thinking diminishing returns will force some models to consolidate, but they don't. So it's not like my track record is any good on this I do think it's inevitable that the 5D line eventually not be differentiated by megapixels/frame rates, though, because at some point they'll be higher than anyone needs or wants, and if there are to be multiple models, they'll need to be differentiated in other ways.

In terms of the storage, I would really like a camera that accepts a grip or storage cartridge that can take an m.2 SSD. It would likely be something like a $1,500 option, but having 1TB storage on-camera that had very fast read and write times would be just awesome.

 

[ahsanford]

I'll add to Talys's interesting 'would be nice' list: I'd love Canon to embrace the market potential of a nearly identical camera with only one thing changed out.

Right now we see this with the 5DS / 5DS R. Two SKUs (more when you consider kitting) that have a fundamentally useful difference.

Nikon is doing this for the type of memory card module they put in some FF bodies, if I recall.

Options like these within the same camera design -- with just a few components changed out -- would be attractive:

• Integral screen vs. tilty-flippy
• Standard vs. astro (IR filter and/or cooling)
• Transmissive fixed focusing screen vs. lower-tech but interchangeable focusing screens
• [Insert your 'aw shucks my one hardware-related really easy thing to do didn't make my preferred level of camera' item here]

I realize that this is a major inventory issue, and if Canon gets this wrong their excess & obsolescence costs could be huge. But how much more money would Canon have made if the 5D4 had a tilty-flippy? I imagine a nontrivial chunk of folks have that as a dead-set 'must' feature and ended up getting a 6D2 instead.

- A

 

[illadvisedhammer]

I am eager to see what the 90D has to offer. When the 7Diii finally comes out I will compare the two cameras and if the 7Diii doesn’t have the specs that I want I’ll buy the 90D.

I'd like to add my sample size of one here and see if anyone else has the same wants. I have an 80D and an m6 and the 80D is mostly delightful, could be my last camera. Most of the features I want are mirrorless ones - flexible focus bracketing/stacking for insect macro on AF lenses, focus peaking for MF lenses, zebra stripes, expose for focus point and eye detect focus would be fun. The 80D is my critical use camera because it is more reliable and much faster focusing in low-light. Really what would get me to eventually buy a 90D would be focus stacking and more flexible time-lapse --> the one shot per second limit is not ideal for the medium-slow actions I like to capture - insect eggs hatching, insects molting, and insects feeding. 4 or 5 shots per second would be a much better upper speed limit for time lapse. Other features that would be used and appreciated are auto-AFMA, IR focus assist on camera. Most of these are picking at the edges, this is a mature technology, except in connecting to our phones etc.