Valid points, but a big unknown is the future of the M system, which is already very close to the Rebel price point.
Your hypothetical Costco buyer may be interested in both price and small size and the M is likely to maintain those advantages over the R system. I suspect that only a tiny minority of those buyers will ever go beyond a bundled two lens kit and if at some point they decide to "upgrade" they won't have enough invested in the M system to hesitate chucking it all for an RP and 24-105 STM or whatever lower cost body and lens combination Canon may offer.
On this forum, we often presume that there are significant cost savings and incentives to consolidate lines, but I wonder if the savings is really much of a factor. Canon continues to churn out two-lens Rebel kits for about $550. It is hard to see a similar price point for the R series in the near future.
Yeah for sure, we're all just speculating. I think the M series suffers, in this hypothetical consumer's mind, from looking too much like a point and shoot. Its not 'real camera' enough. Certainly speculation again, but I know personally a few interested hobbyists who have said they don't want a fancy point and shoot, and don't really fully understand that the M series is more that just a fancy point and shoot. Size matters, apparently, in this case.
For the record, I love my M50 and am a big proponent of the brand. If Canon commits to it replacing the Rebel line, that means good things for the future of the line. It just seems like they intend to keep it fully separate though, if they keep it around at all.
As to cost savings for consolidating, its less about volumes and production efficacy than it is about organizational drain. Go the RF and you can have one product line manager, one platform engineer, one product pipeline manager, etc. Stick with EF and you'll duplicate at least some of that, and have to maintain tech experts and separate marketing, sales and support structure for both. On the outside of the organization looking in, it doesn't seem like it amounts to much. But its the kind of consolidation managers really pat themselves on the back for.
Brian
Yes, I do think there will be RF lenses specifically designed for APS-C, just as there were APS-C lenses specifically designed for DSLRs. Not many of course, initially just a kit lens, but I would expect at least 2 or 3 others to follow. It's not as if Canon don't have the manufacturing capacity.
On Canon's crop DSLRs, lenses designed especially for them were very popular e.g. the 18-135mm. That lens was pretty awful, but there were some truly excellent APS-C lenses, such as the acclaimed EF-S 60mm F2.8 macro. It would be disappointing (and to me, surprising) if there were no RF lenses produced specifically for APS-C.
I think what we'll see is lenses that have popped up in the patents where the image circle is just a little too dark at the corners for a full frame, but work with in camera corrections (think the 24-240). These lenses are well suited to APSc sensors, and because of their design look like they'll be nice and compact. There is really no good reason for them to do an RF-s mount. The smaller mirror on APSc DSLRs allowed the rear of the lens to get a little closer to the sensor and had some advantages, but there will be diminishing returns with the already short flange distance of the RF body.
Brian
