EOS-1D X & EOS 5D Mark III Replacements in 2015 [CR1]

[keithcooper]

The roadmap sounds plausible for me. Just expand the schedule to the future and a new 5DM4 is right in time. The 1DX should be fine for the moment.. I don't think that the new 1D will arive before the 5D.

I wouldn't mind to get down to 16 or 18 MPixel again, just with 2 Stops more dynamic. The new Sony A7S is the right direction in my opinion, if it wouldn't be Sony

That graphic is an old one copied from the Northlight site - I update the original every quarter ;-)

Current one is at:
http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/rumours.html#canon_timeline

 

[unfocused]

... On the one hand, it's very difficult to imagine any 7DII advancement of that magnitude. On the other hand, it's always risky to bet against the future when it comes to technological advancements.

I will hope we see that kind of advancement, but I will bet that we won't.

well, 24 MP at least 1 stop improvement for Noise, Banding and DR ... throughout entire ISO Range should be simple enough ...

Sorry, but that reads like a drive-by generic comment, rather than an actual response to my post.

Perhaps without realizing it, you are proving my point:

The changes you reference are evolutionary, not so revolutionary as to impact sales of either the 5DIII or the 1DX. Canon's full-frame DSLRs are outselling their competition by a wide margin.

They are under no competitive pressure to update any of their full frame models. Since the pressure is not coming from the outside, the only reason to update would be internal pressure and that would require a truly revolutionary advancement.

If Canon releases a 24 MP 7DII with the improvements you suggest, that would be nice – but it's not going to suddenly cause 5DIII and 1DX sales to tank (doubtful it's going to even hurt 6D sales).

This thread is all about Canon making such an incredible advancement in sensor tech with the 7DII that they feel they must incorporate those advancements immediately into the 5DIII and the 1DX.

I repeat (this time with emphasis added for the reading-challenged): I hope we see that kind of advancement, but I bet that we won't. (And, if anyone needs further explanation, that is not a dig at Canon, but rather skepticism that such an advancement is on the horizon and may not even be possible.)

 

[R1-7D]

A bit early in the update cycle if true when compared to previous updates maybe? I would think it would be later in 2015 that replacements are possibly announced with closer to 2016 with an actual release if there will be updates.

True

Not quite if you consider this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Canon_EOS_digital_cameras

Again, as I mentioned earlier in the thread, the fact that no 1D utilizes crop sensors may have an effect on the production cycle of their lineup. I might be wrong, but I'm sure investing in creating new full frame sensors is a lot more costly and time consuming than developing smaller sensors.

Even Nikon's new D4s is not an entirely new sensor from what I've read, despite their marketing gymnastics. Not taking anything away from their camera, it's still a beast; but so is the 1DX. A new design isn't needed yet.

 

[dolina]

What we have to keep in mind is that Canon/Nikon will only upgrade their lenses & bodies under these conditions.

1) Rival company updates their offering

and/or

2) Major sporting event like the Summer/Winter Olympics & FIFA World Cup.

===

Now, the first condition has been fulfilled with the D4s but could be countered via Firmware upgrade. Like what happened with the the ones for the 7D & 5D3.

As for major sporting events the next ones are the 2016 Sumner Games in Brazil, 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and 2018 Winter Games in Korea.

I dont know of any major sporting event in 2015 so my bet is the new 1-Series body will be out sometime in 2016.

To be honest Canon should've done something way back in October 2014 for the 1DX. Updating a 1-Series body next year makes little to no sense to me.

As for a 5D3 replacement next year makes lotsa sense to me based on past product lifecycle.

7D being replaced by September makes sense to me. A body that hasnt been updated in nearly 5 years is not the norm.

I do wonder whether all these single digit bodies will incorporate 4K video and/or a replacement to CF cards in the form of CFast. Fastest CF card on the market now is 1066x which is near the 1100x limit. CFast can be had at 3333x today.

BTW getting hot and bothered over a rumor is very irrational. They're rumors for a reason.

The roadmap for the 1DX update might be a bit different than previous 1D cameras; the biggest difference is there is no crop sensor anymore. It's a reasonable assumption that developing a full frame sensor takes more resources and is therefore less likely to receive as frequent updates as in the past when compared to previous 1D models. Of course, this is just an assumption.

In my own opinion of the matter, what's the point of rushing an update? Nikon just updated their D4 with the D4s, but the 1DX is still arguably current and still has superior frame rate, autofocus and resolution. It's also selling better than Nikon's offering. No point in updating if you don't have to.

There's always an update in the works. When the iPhone 6 launches in September you can bet your buns Jony Ive has the 6s already planned out. With the 1DX, despite being announced in October of 2011, it wasn't even in stores until late June or July of 2012. Even if a new 1D body is announced (which I doubt for this year), it will most likely be a good six to nine months before we actually see one available for purchase.

My own guess would be late 2015 or early to mid 2016 for the new 1D. Like I said before, enjoy what you're currently shooting.

 

[kurtj29]

Can't wait to start reading how the 1DX and 5DMkIII can't autofocus - you can buy a used one, but your keeper rate is going to be so low and the IQ is just terrible.

I guess I have to be ready to throw my 1DMk4 in the trash because it will probably just stop taking pictures when the new camera's are announced.

 

[Lee Jay]

This thread is all about Canon making such an incredible advancement in sensor tech with the 7DII that they feel they must incorporate those advancements immediately into the 5DIII and the 1DX.

I repeat (this time with emphasis added for the reading-challenged): I hope we see that kind of advancement, but I bet that we won't. (And, if anyone needs further explanation, that is not a dig at Canon, but rather skepticism that such an advancement is on the horizon and may not even be possible.)

If Canon can somehow extract a 1-stop improvement from the 7D sensor, that would put their top-of-the-line crop camera about on-par with their top-of-the-line full-frame cameras as far as pure sensor image quality goes. That might be a bit embarrassing if they don't move pretty quickly to port that technology to the full-frame world to allow those cameras to regain the 1 1/3 stop advantage they get from just the geometry of a larger sensor. It might also stem the tide of people doing exactly what I was doing this morning, and figuring out what it would take for me to migrate my current full-frame lens system to an all-crop body environment (it's no where near as bad as it sounds, but it's not the greatest either).

 

[dolina]

One constant I know and most people tend to forget is that all replacements of the current lens/product will always will be better than the one they replace except for 1 aspect.

Namely, the introductory price.

;D

 

[Chuck Alaimo]

hmmmmmm...while i won't put much stock in the time table here (still thinking any refresh in the 1 and 5 series line will be as most say, closer to 2016 or in 2016), knowing that the cost will be at least the same as the 5d3 launch price (probably more), I'd say its a safe bet to start setting some cash aside!

We shall see though. while i think the time table is off, I can for sure see the logic in hitting the refresh button sooner than expected if this new sensor in the 7d2 is as improved as the rumors hint at....

 

[unfocused]

This thread is all about Canon making such an incredible advancement in sensor tech with the 7DII that they feel they must incorporate those advancements immediately into the 5DIII and the 1DX.

I repeat (this time with emphasis added for the reading-challenged): I hope we see that kind of advancement, but I bet that we won't. (And, if anyone needs further explanation, that is not a dig at Canon, but rather skepticism that such an advancement is on the horizon and may not even be possible.)

If Canon can somehow extract a 1-stop improvement from the 7D sensor, that would put their top-of-the-line crop camera about on-par with their top-of-the-line full-frame cameras as far as pure sensor image quality goes. That might be a bit embarrassing if they don't move pretty quickly to port that technology to the full-frame world ...

The key word is "if". Others who know more than I do about physics and sensor design have written extensively on this forum about the difficulty (some might say near impossibility) of achieving a full stop improvement from an APS-C sensor.

Frankly, I'd be very surprised if that is where Canon is going with APS-C. I believe they will play to the strengths of each format. High ISO sensitivity for full frame sensors, high resolution (more megapixels and thus more effective "reach") for APS-C.

I've often referenced what I see as Canon's two-body strategy for growth in a market that is becoming saturated. I suspect they have looked at their DSLR buyers and determined that the largest untapped DSLR customer base is single-body owners that can be converted to two bodies – one in each format. I still believe we will see a higher megapixel 7D with only slight improvements in ISO performance.

 

[Tugela]

Why would you need CF on a 6D?
I am pretty happy with the 6D and don't plan to replace it soon. It is a landscape/ all around camera.

Because they used CF in the stone age and therefore it is indispensable, and no one can do without it.

Storage is storage, I'm not sure what the big deal is about. The only criteria is how fast it is, not legacy support for old media from obsolete cameras.

 

[jdramirez]

Can't wait to start reading how the 1DX and 5DMkIII can't autofocus - you can buy a used one, but your keeper rate is going to be so low and the IQ is just terrible.

I guess I have to be ready to throw my 1DMk4 in the trash because it will probably just stop taking pictures when the new camera's are announced.

I think of the 5d mkiii a bit like my wife. I can upgrade at a price... I don't need a new wife... would I like a new wife to spice things up... sure... but the wife at present is not only adequate, but very good...

 

[ashmadux]

So far off, barely even worth thinking about it. its not even july 14. and Canons 2015 is 2017 in the real world.

Why dont we see that they do with the next rebel...sure to be cut down in every way possible to avoid encroach the 70d.

 

[dolina]

CF cards will be replaced by CFast cards when less compressed 4K video becomes the norm.

It could show up in the next 1D, 5D, 7D or any other body that uses CF cards.

CF cards are limited to 1,140x (UDMA 7; 167MB/s).

SDXC version 4.0 cards are limited to 2,130x (UHS-II; 312MB/s).

CFast cards are limited to 4,096x (SATA III; 600MB/s).

XQD version 2.0 cards are limited to 6,826x (PCI Express 3.0; 1,000MB/s).

XQD on paper is a better solution as the speed is limited to PCI Express rather than SATA but it is only used on bodies from Nikon and Sony. CFast has support from Canon and Phase One.

Why would you need CF on a 6D?
I am pretty happy with the 6D and don't plan to replace it soon. It is a landscape/ all around camera.

Because they used CF in the stone age and therefore it is indispensable, and no one can do without it.

Storage is storage, I'm not sure what the big deal is about. The only criteria is how fast it is, not legacy support for old media from obsolete cameras.

 

[Tugela]

They are under no competitive pressure to update any of their full frame models. Since the pressure is not coming from the outside, the only reason to update would be internal pressure and that would require a truly revolutionary advancement.

The purpose of updating is to ensure that competitive pressure does not develop in the first place, not to respond to pressure that has developed. If you wait for pressure to develop you are effectively ceding market share to your competitors, giving them a foothold, and if you want to stay top dog it is in your best interests to see that does not happen.

As soon as you start operating reactively rather than proactively, you have already lost the game.

 

[vscd]

Those are theoretical numbers. Remember the downhill after the Canon 60D got a SD-Card Slot, they never catched up again to his predecessor with CF-Card (Canon 50D). On the Cards I always read high Transferrates, but on the field the CF-Cards never let me down. The SD-Cards did. And they are too fragile.

I think a CFast could be a new standard, but it would be nice if I could use my old Cards in the same slot, too.

 

[Arkarch]

CF or CFast. As long as it is reliable. Working as a software developer, I dont trust SD. As a photographer, certainly not to hold my photos even for the day.

USB 3.0. Nice. I normally drop the Card in a USB 3.0 standalone reader and transfer.

Announcement timing - Perhaps they have held back the 7DII until they were closer to having the full frame sensor version ready.

For me, I really want to move to two full-frame bodies for sports work. Having a full and a crop as I do now confuses my lens lineup for sports. Even with the 7DII - unless it is spectacular - I am more likely to pursue a 1DX as it meets my needs. If its coming rapidly, I could hold up a bit. Only a 7DII better than a 1DX gets me looking again at crop. And crop does not help me with landscape when I have a full. So yeah, a phenomenal new sensor in a 7DII frustrates me as I want to see it in full frame almost immediately.

 

[steliosk]

5D4 wish list
=========

- fix ISO 200 and make it look like ISO 100 (highlight tone priority shots looks noisy when enabled)
- faster SD card slot
- dual SD (get rid of that ancient and expensive CF)
- and yes.. MORE DR please.. kill that banding in the shadows, buy sensors from Sony for Christ sake as nikon does.
- more mp like 40mp (and 20mp mRAW) that those great lenses such as 24-70 2.8 II, 70-200 2.8 II and 16-35 f/4 can handle!

i'd pay for such a hardware.. i wouldn't for something less since i own the 5D3, honestly? what the point?

 

[assassin11]

I dont know of any major sporting event in 2015 so my bet is the new 1-Series body will be out sometime in 2016.

Would the 2015 Pam am games in Toronto be considered a major sporting event?

 

[vscd]

- faster SD card slot
- dual SD (get rid of that ancient and expensive CF)

Your position. Hopefully they won't do that.

- and yes.. MORE DR please.. kill that banding in the shadows, buy sensors from Sony for Christ sake as nikon does.
- more mp like 40mp (and 20mp mRAW) that those great lenses such as 24-70 2.8 II, 70-200 2.8 II and 16-35 f/4 can handle!

Why do you need a Canon, just grab the latest Nikon with your fancy Toshiba/Sony/Whatsoever-Sensor and get lucky. I don't understand why you bought a 5DM3 when everything inside is wrong for you, even the Memorycard.

You'll get an equally good 24-70 or 70-200@Nikon. And who needs 40MPixel? Get a Pano-tool. Understand it. Use it.

P.S. I'm glad that there are companies out there who invent their own sensors, like Sigma or Canon.

 

[Bruce Photography]

Just one more year and we might come out with something.....