EOS 5D Mark III Replacement Talk [CR2]

[Joe M]

This makes far more sense than the previous talk of the 5D3 going to high mpx in the next version. I figured that would be the case when first mentioned. As far as what they want to call all these variations, I think it'll be tricky. Personally, I think all the names (numbers) of the various cameras are tricky enough as it is. I guess you can go 5D3, 5D4, and keep adding digits until you hit 5D27 (if that would even fit on the camera badge). I'm waiting to see what happens when the 90D comes out. Then it's 100D, 110D...?
In any case, whatever the names, as long as a body similar to the current 5D3 continues, I'm ok with that. The next iteration will have to be a big leap though as the 5D3 is serving me pretty well.

I agree the naming is important as the 5 series is the sacred cow. But I dont think Canon ever makes a model badged the 90D. Sounds way to much like the old Nikon D90.

Yes, no 90D yet. But, what comes after 70D, 80D...? All the nomenclature is about to get awkward. But people naming stuff whether it be a camera body or, most anything that's updated/upgraded ( software is a good example), get to a point where they regret starting with "whatever 1" when they get to "whatever 9". How to name something so people know you have the latest and greatest and yet not confuse the issue? Personally, I don't care what they call the cameras as long as they perform as I require.

 

[JonAustin]

... Im just waiting for the 5DIV to come out. So I can get a second 5DIII when the prices go hit 2k.

Bingo!

It's very entertaining reading all these posts by forum members about which variant they should buy of a camera model that hasn't even been announced yet!

 

[RGF]

I agree the naming is important as the 5 series is the sacred cow. But I dont think Canon ever makes a model badged the 90D. Sounds way to much like the old Nikon D90.

What happens after the 90D? Suddenly Canon mid-tier camera is 3 digits, the realm of lower end cameras.

Numerical naming can be tricky - especially long term.

 

[Famateur]

I'd be very surprised if they came out with two versions of the high MP sensor with and without an AA filter.

Agreed. I don't have the rumor/leak details the CR Admins have, but I wonder if there's some overlap between 'one camera with AA filter and one without' and 'a high-megapixel 5Ds and a lower megapixel 5DIV'. If I were to guess, it would be that the 5Ds lacks the AA filter, and the 5DIV retains it (i.e. just two bodies, not three). That wouldn't seem like throwing things against the wall to see what sticks. An "S" body has been missing from the lineup for quite a while, and a successor to the 5DIII is expected. Seems reasonable to me...

I might be wrong, but isn't the need for an AA filter reduced as the pixel density goes up? That might support Canon's decision to remove it for the 53MP body.

Now, to tread into areas I have even less knowledge...When it comes to resolving power of lenses, I don't see how 53MP would be an issue. We don't run into resolving power issues on the current crop sensors (or do we, and I just don't know?), so having similar pixel density on a full frame camera should be fine, right? It also wouldn't be a compromise on noise performance because full frame's advantage is a function of more surface area to gather light, not pixel density (because of gapless microlenses). Anyone with expertise on the subject, feel free to set me straight (Neuro, jrista, Lee Jay -- I'm looking to you guys ).

Anyhoo, this is what I'd sepculate:

1. 5Ds High-Megapixel for $4,999
2. 5DIV for $3,499
3. 6DII for $1,999

The high-megapixel body will be released long before the 5DIV. This would be to entice 5DIII users (particularly studio and landscape users) to make the jump from their aging 5DIII workhorses, and at early-adopter prices. Once that pent-up demand is satisfied, they release the 5DIV as a true upgrade/replacement of the 5DIII to feed the wedding/portrait/event market the 5DIII has served so well. The 6DII will have a few incremental advancements that keep it in the "entry level" category but are nice enough to justify the boost back up to $1,999. I wouldn't be surprised if the 6DII doesn't come for another year or more, though. The 5DIII second hand market might also push 6DII prices back down to $1,799 pretty fast, too.

It would be cool if Canon did something that blows everyone's minds at launch. For example, leap-frogging 4K and debuting a higher resolution standard with clean output and a powerful codec that keeps file sizes reasonable. Of course, the Cinema EOS line pretty much guarantees that won't happen in a DSLR. Or maybe Canon introduces a new sensor architecture that mops the floor with any current products for dynamic range and ISO performance.

Realistically, I think the acknowledged focus on serving the high-megapixel crowd and the high-sensitivity crowd separately is a pretty good indicator that a mind-blowing, do-all sensor is not coming any time soon.

Oh well -- I'm just excited for another generation of full frame bodies to be released so I can decide if I get the 6DII or pick up a current (then previous) generation body for much lower price. Either way, it's good for me.

 

[Maiaibing]

"4D" is possible

Not so: 4 is a no-go in Asian markets, just as there's no PowerShot G4. There's even a word for it " tetraphobia": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_in_Chinese_culture#Four.

So...please explain the Nikon D4 and D4s to us. Is Nikon not a Japanese company? Is Japan not part of Asia? Are Nikon just very brave to flout a public phobia, whereas Canon is too cowardly to do the same? I look forward to you sharing your cultural wisdom on the subject...

Sure, everything you ask for good ol' Neuro, inquiring in the usual friendly tone

On close inspection, you'll notice that in Nikon's numbering the 4 is *after* the d, while with Canon it would to be much more prominently up front and the whole name probably more pronounced like "death" (native speakers around?).

It probably depends on a company's specific marketing strategy how much they consider these local specifics, it might be more important for consumer-grade products (like Powershot) than flagship (like D4). And it'll matter if you have to actively skip a number or can easily avoid the problem altogether with a new product like "EOS 4D".

Its a Chinese language problem. Its irrelevant if it comes first or last as you want to avoid the sound itself.

Its not going to be a big problem if a Japanese Camera company calls a camera something with "4" as the Chinese will associate it with a foreign product anyway (and thus be more forgiving). They could also just give it a proper Chinese name for the Chinese market as the hotel chain Four Seasons did. There are good reasons for doing so with a lot of products anyway just think Coca Cola.

 

[PureClassA]

I'd be very surprised if they came out with two versions of the high MP sensor with and without an AA filter.

Agreed. I don't have the rumor/leak details the CR Admins have, but I wonder if there's some overlap between 'one camera with AA filter and one without' and 'a high-megapixel 5Ds and a lower megapixel 5DIV'. If I were to guess, it would be that the 5Ds lacks the AA filter, and the 5DIV retains it (i.e. just two bodies, not three). That wouldn't seem like throwing things against the wall to see what sticks. An "S" body has been missing from the lineup for quite a while, and a successor to the 5DIII is expected. Seems reasonable to me...

I might be wrong, but isn't the need for an AA filter reduced as the pixel density goes up? That might support Canon's decision to remove it for the 53MP body.

Now, to tread into areas I have even less knowledge...When it comes to resolving power of lenses, I don't see how 53MP would be an issue. We don't run into resolving power issues on the current crop sensors (or do we, and I just don't know?), so having similar pixel density on a full frame camera should be fine, right? It also wouldn't be a compromise on noise performance because full frame's advantage is a function of more surface area to gather light, not pixel density (because of gapless microlenses). Anyone with expertise on the subject, feel free to set me straight (Neuro, jrista, Lee Jay -- I'm looking to you guys ).

Anyhoo, this is what I'd sepculate:

1. 5Ds High-Megapixel for $4,999
2. 5DIV for $3,499
3. 6DII for $1,999

The high-megapixel body will be released long before the 5DIV. This would be to entice 5DIII users (particularly studio and landscape users) to make the jump from their aging 5DIII workhorses, and at early-adopter prices. Once that pent-up demand is satisfied, they release the 5DIV as a true upgrade/replacement of the 5DIII to feed the wedding/portrait/event market the 5DIII has served so well. The 6DII will have a few incremental advancements that keep it in the "entry level" category but are nice enough to justify the boost back up to $1,999. I wouldn't be surprised if the 6DII doesn't come for another year or more, though. The 5DIII second hand market might also push 6DII prices back down to $1,799 pretty fast, too.

It would be cool if Canon did something that blows everyone's minds at launch. For example, leap-frogging 4K and debuting a higher resolution standard with clean output and a powerful codec that keeps file sizes reasonable. Of course, the Cinema EOS line pretty much guarantees that won't happen in a DSLR. Or maybe Canon introduces a new sensor architecture that mops the floor with any current products for dynamic range and ISO performance.

Realistically, I think the acknowledged focus on serving the high-megapixel crowd and the high-sensitivity crowd separately is a pretty good indicator that a mind-blowing, do-all sensor is not coming any time soon.

Oh well -- I'm just excited for another generation of full frame bodies to be released so I can decide if I get the 6DII or pick up a current (then previous) generation body for much lower price. Either way, it's good for me.

+1000 Dead On agree. That's exactly where my thinking is right now. Except for the pricing. I don't see Canon making a camera designed to effectively go head-to-head with a D810 (and/or the new Sony 46MP sensor allegedly due out soon) at $5000. In order to be a viable competitor, I would think they would have to keep it sub $4k. Which means the lower MP 5D3 or its replacement would come down to $2999 perhaps... UNLESS there is so much difference between the two models (very different but equally critical uses) they come out at the same price, just like Sony does with the Alpha 7R and 7S. Thinkin' that may be a stretch for Canon given their history but not out the realm of possibility depending on exactly what they build AND if this CR2 even bears fruit.

 

[Marsu42]

Its a Chinese language problem. Its irrelevant if it comes first or last as you want to avoid the sound itself.

Its not going to be a big problem if a Japanese Camera company calls a camera something with "4" as the Chinese will associate it with a foreign product anyway (and thus be more forgiving). They could also just give it a proper Chinese name for the Chinese market as the hotel chain Four Seasons did. There are good reasons for doing so with a lot of products anyway just think Coca Cola.

Thanks, that's very interesting! What's your take on Canon skipping the Powershot then, are they jumping at shadows or is a Japanese product maybe not considered as "foreign" (because it's Asia) as an American one - no matter Nikon going ahead with the D4?

 

[Famateur]

If I was a Canon exec, I wouldn't have any heartburn about reaching the limitations of current name/numbering in the product lineup. New names and numbers aren't hard to come up with, and transitioning reputation from one name to another is pretty doable.

It wouldn't surprise me if Canon times the release of some ground-breaking tech it's been sitting on to correspond with new names that resolve the impending numbering ceiling on current product lines. That would be an ideal time to make the change to a new name, and when you do, all that suffixed number-based versioning fun can start fresh.

 

[Maiaibing]

Anyhoo, this is what I'd sepculate:

1. 5Ds High-Megapixel for $4,999

Wow - that would certainly make my wallet's demand for moving over to Nikon increase by leaps and bounds!

Canon already outpriced itself once with the $3.500 5DIII what do you expext they will put into a 5Ds that will make people fork over $5.000? That's the price range of a 1D series Camera.

I got both my 5DII's very early after intro for $2.200 - just say'in.

 

[Random Orbits]

I agree the naming is important as the 5 series is the sacred cow. But I dont think Canon ever makes a model badged the 90D. Sounds way to much like the old Nikon D90.

What happens after the 90D? Suddenly Canon mid-tier camera is 3 digits, the realm of lower end cameras.

Numerical naming can be tricky - especially long term.

How about A0D? Just kidding. Naming the Rebels Txi in the US was a smart move on Canon's part although having the SL1 known as the 100D wasn't such a good move...

 

[drs]

5Ds for me, which makes the most sense to continue where the 5D and the 5DmkII sets the initial path. The 5DmkIII, based on my needs, was never even considered to be part of my kit. (I shoot RED Epic Dragon for motion, so any DSLR video is not my trigger to buy).
With the quality of lenses available for the EOS mount, yes, 53MP will be just fine. :•) I'm in – if Canon delivers soon.

 

[Chaitanya]

can be true, just saw a post on Canon India's facebook page about 10,000INR discount on 5D mark III in India.

 

[Famateur]

+1000 Dead On agree. That's exactly where my thinking is right now. Except for the pricing. I don't see Canon making a camera designed to effectively go head-to-head with a D810 (and/or the new Sony 46MP sensor allegedly due out soon) at $5000. In order to be a viable competitor, I would think they would have to keep it sub $4k. Which means the lower MP 5D3 or its replacement would come down to $2999 perhaps... UNLESS there is so much difference between the two models (very different but equally critical uses) they come out at the same price, just like Sony does with the Alpha 7R and 7S. Thinkin' that may be a stretch for Canon given their history but not out the realm of possibility depending on exactly what they build AND if this CR2 even bears fruit.

You may be right on prices being lower than my guess (that was little more than a wet finger to the wind ). With the pleasantly reasonable introductory prices of the 70D, 7DII, 16-35 F4L IS and 100-400 F4.5-5.6 II, some downward movement in prices might be expected.

The completely unsupported thoughts that pointed me to $4,999 for the high-megapixel body are:

1. It was rumored that the high-megapixel "S" body could be in the 1 series and come in at $7,999. Putting it in a 5D series body means it would have to be < $5,000, and likely < $4,000, as you suspect.

2. The difference between 6D and 5DIII is about $1,300. If the new 5DIV comes in at similar intro price to the 5DIII ($3,499), then a similar price difference would put the 5Ds around $4,799. I threw on a couple hundred more to account for the "we-finally-have-a-high-megapixel-body!" factor.

To your point, it wouldn't surprise me if it was more like $3,499 for 5DIV and $3,999 for 5Ds. You choose between sensitivity and resolution, with resolution getting the premium. Competition from Sony/Nikon and their resolution/price will also add downward pressure to Canon prices.

It'll be interesting to see what happens!

 

[dolina]

Just make it better than Nikon/Sony's full frame bodies from 2014. If any of these new full framers are better than Nikon/Sony's 2015 bodies then awesome!

 

[Famateur]

Anyhoo, this is what I'd sepculate:

1. 5Ds High-Megapixel for $4,999

Wow - that would certainly make my wallet's demand for moving over to Nikon increase by leaps and bounds!

Canon already outpriced itself once with the $3.500 5DIII what do you expext they will put into a 5Ds that will make people fork over $5.000? That's the price range of a 1D series Camera.

I got both my 5DII's very early after intro for $2.200 - just say'in.

My guess could very well be way high. I remember everyone moaning about the price of the 5DIII when it came out and that it wasn't enough of an upgrade over the 5DII for the premium. While there are a number of photographers who passed on the 5DIII for that reason, it still managed to become one of the most successful all around bodies to date. The price has also settled down to $3,099.

As for 1-series territory for pricing, there's only one 1-series body in the lineup right now, and it's still $6,799. That's $1,800 above my admittedly high estimate for a 5Ds. That said, the 1Ds II intro'd at $7,999 (don't know what the other "S" bodies into'd at -- feeling Google-lazy). It doesn't seem crazy to me that a new "S" variant would command a significant premium, even if put into a 5D body.

Speculation is always fun!

 

[Famateur]

Just for fun, I found that you can still buy a new 1DsIII for $5,500 on Amazon. That's $1,500 more than my estimate for the 5Ds, and at less than half the resolution -- not to mention the weaker processing power and older AF and metering systems of a 7-year-old camera.

 

[keithcooper]

Bring on the 3D - the name has a built in idiot filter. Just remember to put a 'does not shoot 3D photos' sticker on the box to thwart those who are stupid and litigious ;-)

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Be good if they could do an electronic Anti-Alias option that you could turn on and off on the camera and hopefully the MK 4 will come with 4K Video which is coming more and more common.[\quote]

All Digital cameras have a electronic high pass or anti alias filters in the electronic signal processing. I once saw a video of a Canon engineer discussing the measures that Canon and everyone took to eliminate Moiré. It works in tandem with the optical filter to give a sharper cutoff of high frequencies that cause Moiré. Electronic filters alone aren't enough, so cameras without high pass filters do have Moiré, more or less depending on several factors.

While its true that you can reduce resolution of a high MP camera with Mraw or Sraw, that does not eliminate the issues with Moiré, and it also begs the question as to why pay more for a high MP camera and then cripple it.

A high MP body will likely new either a Digic 6+ (NEW), or dual Digic 6 processors in order to have a reasonable
fps. The higher power usage will be a hit on battery life as well unless we see a new and larger battery.

 

[The Flasher]

Is this Canon taking Sony's Alpha 7 triple threat head on? It'll be interesting to see how the features and price points compare.

j

 

[Maiaibing]

While there are a number of photographers who passed on the 5DIII for that reason, it still managed to become one of the most successful all around bodies to date.

It doesn't seem crazy to me that a new "S" variant would command a significant premium, even if put into a 5D body.

Speculation is always fun!

1) I'm not sure about how well the 5DIII did as I have never seen any specific info on this. To my knowledge Canon never claimed strong 5DIII sales as they have done with the 5DII, 70D and Nikon did with the D800. Anyone??

2) Speculation is the reason for being at CR!

I certainly accept that your guess is as good as mine. However, there are still arguments to be made that seem more or less reasonable. Like we are not going to see a $500 5DIV.

I once made a poll on the price for the new 70-200 f/2.8 IS L II. The average guestimate was 2.390 USD - Canon official MSRP: 2.499 USD. 4% off - not bad. Unfortunately, people have a much harder time with guessing new camera features - not least because there are so many variables.

We will all be wiser soon (I guess!). :