Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs

[AJ]

Right.

Remember, 10 years ago we thought that in 2013 we'd be driving hydrogen-powered cars, our houses would be lit by power obtained through cold nuclear fusion, and cancer would be cured.

And we thought APSC was just going to be a stop-gap format.

 

[jrista]

http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/

I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D

I'm not sure how they going to make 24-70 f2.8, 85mm f1.4, 135mm f2, 70-200 f2.8, 300mm f2.8 list goes on...small enough to go with mirrorless body.

I suspect the DSLR will still be here. For all the hype mirrorless gets, it's market isn't particularly strong except in a few sub markets (namely, Japan.) Conversely, the DSLR market has remained very strong, and I believe if the root causes of the recent moderate downturn were fully investigated, a multitude of other far more significant reasons BESIDES mirrorless would be found culprit.

In ten years time, I bet the DSLR shares the market 50/50 with Mirrorless, maybe 40/60. I think the DSLR will die hard, if it truly dies at all. What I think will really happen is DSLR users augment their kit with the addition of a mirrorless, but continue to use both. (At least, that's what I suspect I will do myself, and I know there are a lot of the silent majority out there who think just like me when it comes to mirrorless options, EVF vs. OVF, etc.)

 

[Rienzphotoz]

Right.

Remember, 10 years ago we thought that in 2013 we'd be driving hydrogen-powered cars, our houses would be lit by power obtained through cold nuclear fusion, and cancer would be cured.

And we thought APSC was just going to be a stop-gap format.

;D ;D ;D good one!

 

[ScottyP]

As long as they make the mirrorless bodies compatible with the EF lenses, who really cares? People expect to replace camera bodies an a semi-regular basis anyway. But I don't see how it would make sense for Canon to 5h1+can all its great lenses and start over.

I also think the tiny body thing will not take over. The ergonomics are just not there. People with cameras smaller than 1DX are constantly adding battery grips, which make the camera larger. That is not just about battery life; some folks like (or at least don't mind) the bigger size, because that also makes them easier to hold onto.

Look at cell phones! For years they got littler and littler, and for a while an absurdly tiny phone was a status symbol. (Zoolander) But then functionality and ergonomics surged back, and now iPhones and smart phones are pretty big, because that makes them easier and more pleasant to work with.

 

[CarlTN]

Of course Leica's CEO would say mirrorless would take over...rangefinder cameras are mirrorless, and they're what Leica have been known for, for what, almost a century?

It's kind of like Apple saying whatever they make is going to take over. They're losing their luster, and now Samsung and others are taking over.

I would bet heavily on a professional camera body still having a reflex mirror 15 or 20 years from now, and especially still being as large as a 1-series body (perhaps a bit lighter, but the same physical size). The technique is just too established, and the physics are against an EVF ever totally replacing a mirror and pentaprism. Even if phase autofocus goes away, there will still be some sort of mirror and prism. But I'm not even sure phase autofocus will ever go away...not for stills photography anyway. It kind of has to for video.