Fair enough... as someone who's only had EF, EF-M, and now RF, I forget that EF-S is even a thing. Is the EF-M system sucking the lifeblood out of EF-S? If not why not? If there's a really good reason for that, then maybe I'm wrong about the death more or less of SLR FF.
People on this forum love to extrapolate from their narrow personal experience. I'll play that game. I do some work for a small college. Every year there are maybe two-three students who decide they want something better than a cell phone. They come to me for some lessons in how to use the camera (There is no photography program here.) Invariably, they buy a DSLR and it's almost always a low-end Canon Rebel, frequently in a kit with a telephoto.
Two thoughts:
1) It's only two or three because most are content to use their phones and they become very skilled at using their phones. More young adults are taking more pictures than ever before, but cell phones are the dominant medium and likely to stay that way. That's the big trend and that's what the camera industry as a whole is focused on.
2) Like most consumers, even these young college students when deciding to buy a "real" camera, choose a DSLR.
My tiny sample means nothing. But my
opinion (and it is only an opinion) is that there are far too many variables out there to assume that one format will replace another. I
think that even with all their research Canon/Nikon/Sony etc. have no idea where the market is headed. Sony put all their eggs in the mirrorless basket because they couldn't effectively compete for DSLR users. Canon and Nikon are hedging their bets and are putting a lot of different options out there and seeing what works. My
guess is that Nikon and Canon are playing the long game and we may not see any major product line shakeups for maybe five to 10 years, if ever.
On this forum, there always seem to be teams. With Team Mirrorless trying to beat Team DSLR. But, Canon and Nikon are more like coaches, trying to make sure their bench has a good mix of players -- full frame, crop, DSLR, mirrorless, point and shoot, instant print, etc. etc. The only teams they are on are Team Nikon and Team Canon.