AvTvM said:
Unfortunately, exact numbers are either not broken down in enough detail and/or all over the place, since press realeases and articles alike are obsure and/or poorly written.
The big picture is clear:
* consumers
not buying much. Money is tight, they got smartüphones and most of the households got comapct cameras and often a low-end DSLR as well. Most consumers have smartened up sufficently to realize their DSLR+kit lens sit in the closet most of the time and their smartphones deliver good enough IQ. Market saturated - not only compacts, but also more-of the-same-and-only-marginally-better, iterative low-end DLSRs. All manufacturers similarly affected. Except for a few moving up into enthusiast segment, will generally not return to buy another dwarf-sensor compact or DSLRs in the future.
* prosumer/enthusiast
smartened up and come to realize those boxy-clunky mirrorslappers are nearing end of shelf live. Waiting for "the right"mirrorless camera at affordable price without having to sacrifice much in speed/performance (AF) and ergonomics (esp. OVF vs. EVF) compared to their current DSLRs. Ideally coming from their current manufacturer to increase chances, some lenses will continue to work quite well (via adapter) and not having to learn a new user interface. They are sitting on the fence and also don't buy as many lenses since future of systems is open.
Sony's A7/R are just about "attractive enough" to capture some in that group. Or may settle for mfT or Fuji X camera. Will start buying FF mirrorless, once really good sub USD/€ 2000 offerings come. And then also replace their lens parks over time to native mirrorless lenses with shorter flange distance. Whoever of the 3 - Canon, Nikon, Sony gets there first, will take market leadership.
* pro
economy is tight. Minimize capex. Overall very conservative market segment. Will buy what is absolutely needed from CaNikon. Old farts and those shooting long lenses / fast action will stick with DSLRs for at least 2 more rounds [5D Mk. V and Nikon D6 likely to be "final models"]. Will eventually also move to mirrorless, but over a longer period of time ... 5 years+
Canon and Nikon are looking at a quickly closing "launch window" for mirrorless FF. If they don't get it done in 2014, they'll be really really hard hit. Nikon will go under first. But Canon is not safe either, if they bungle it.
Wow I'd say that's overly sure for pure speculation. I agree on the Consumer side, but the Pro, enthusiast, prosumer market - I disagree! Mirrorless may or may not take off. Mirrorless may or may not sell side by side DSLR's. Mirrorless may or may not replace DSLR's. Mirrorless may or may not be remembered as a good idea went bad.
I's say it's more relative to market saturation and less $$$ being spent trying to create a revolutionary product because the overall economy is sliding - and sorry, there's nothing really revolutionary with mirrorless - People not buying new products especially in the prosumer enthusiast area are buying because its a shiney new thing - not because of needs. With a tight economy, who that is taking great shots with their 2 year old rebel is gonna swap and spend 1k on something that really just doesn't show the big bang wow whistle. The new sony's - they may be the wow now, but, have fun with those adaptors and lack of AF. Or, have fun waiting for sony to make a few dedicated lenses then forget about the whole thing in favor of something else.
As to pro market - the big rush for the mk3 and the 1dx is done, its kind of now the hobby crowd or the slowert o upgrade crowd on those bodies ...and many of those folks may end up just snagging a 6d. I do agree that the pro market will be more conservative - but to say all of us are just waiting around for the mirrorless replacement cycle to begin I think is just off. As many have pointed out --- the major benefit to mirroless is size and weight, major downfall is that once you need ranges past 135mm, your stuck with an adaptor and a large heavy lens which is very awkward on a small body. It's gonna take a hell of a lot of R&D money to get past that (creating smaller optical systems that match the quality of current high end glass, and creating in a way that reduces size and weight and keeping it all weathersealed?????)- which means longer telephoto lenses will be extremely expensive!!!! And speaking of money, it will also take a ton of money to get EVF tech up to pro level - finding a way to reduce the battery drain, or there's more R&D...designing higher capacity batteries to deal with the increased energy need --- that alone will be tough, then you have the low light problem, the latency problem, and yeah, the how to make everything not look like puke when viewing through an EVF....
I will agree that you think mirrorless is the way, but many are way less sold on the idea, and given all the market forecasts - it does seem like the market agrees, mirrorless is currently losing ground because most of those looking for mirrorless are going to be in the ---now why would buy that when i can just use my cell phone crowd...
