Nikon Full Frame Mirrorless to Have New Z Mount

bwud

EOS RP
Sep 3, 2014
305
10
Thanks you. It does. Quite. One could show orders of magnitude on that y axis!

Granted most people don’t buy a phone because it has a camera, at least not in the early days of those devices, whereas people buy cameras because they are cameras. In other words, bundling skews the numbers; it would probably be even more lopsided if charted for, oh... calculators, which also come with most phones - you probably wouldn’t even see the standalone calculators on a linear scale.

Nevertheless, for those who both want a camera and want a phone, it can be a compelling product and sway buying decisions away from dedicated devices, as is likely evidenced largely in the marketing trends. I’d guess that is a greater effect by far than maturity.
 

Sarpedon

EOS M50
Oct 30, 2014
42
0
3dit0r said:
As an addendum to my previous post, I got playing with the Camera Size website on my coffee break. Even I hadn't quite realised just how ridiculous the FF DSLR/Mirrorless size/weight comparison was until I did so. A couple of examples, just to provide food for thought (this is cameras with lenses, so to see what I'm on about you have to click on the little 'body plus lens' icon next to the scale slider):

5D Mark IV + Canon 24-70 f/2.8 L II vs Sony A7riii+Sony 24-70 f/2.8 GM
http://j.mp/2yc91ej
Note that the overall size of the combination is near exactly the same, again, only the height of the mirror box makes the Canon taller. Weight is similar.


5D Mark IV + Canon 50mm f/1.2 L vs Sony A7riii+Sony 50mm f/1.4 ZA
http://j.mp/2sjiC5J
Here the Canon combo is smaller, despite being a stop faster. Weight is similar again.

There are other advantages to mirrorless other than size/weight, of course, but I'm now extremely unconvinced that the mount makes much difference at all in the overall equation.

This is an important point that the more extreme Sony partisans avoid. But both sides are half right and half wrong here.

I think it's healthier to think of something like the A7 series as a modular system: big and heavy with the typical "pro" lenses, just like a DSLR, and furthermore, necessitating an additional grip (and therefore additional money) for good ergonomics with those lenses.

But configured a different way there is a real size advantage: use a small lens like the 35 2.8 on an A7R III and you've got a significantly less bulky and somewhat lighter kit than even the smallest full frame DSLR/lens combo (a 6D with a 40mm STM). There are also weight and size savings to be found with an ultra-wide and high-quality zoom like the 12-24. That's a real advantage, it's just not the clear-cut advantage the fanboys claim.
 

Tugela

EOS R
Feb 12, 2014
873
23
Hflm said:
neuroanatomist said:
Tugela said:
The trends in the 2017 shipment numbers are consistent with previous years, so there is no reason to think that will not continue.

Once again, your 'facts' are contradicted by reality.

index.php


You really should try to live in the real world with the rest of us, instead of inventing your own private reality where you know stuff.

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/when-does-mirrorless-suppla.html
showed two scenarios based on unit volume which are very possible (based on 10% decrease in dslrs and 10% increase in mirrorless, for example).
bythom_ilc_trendline_med.jpeg


Change the growth rate to account for new MILC models introduced by Canon and Nikon and thing can change faster:
bythom_ilc_trendline2_med.jpeg


So 2019 or 2020 are easily possible in my opinion.

MILC adoption will accelerate going forward, it is a simple case of demographics and where the market growth potential is. Younger people are going to favor cameras with integrate computing power into their basic operation, and those will mostly be MILCs. Most of the growth potential for cameras outside of body replacement will be in third world countries, places that don't have attachments to the DSLR concept. There will be a number of major releases in the MILC market, while in DSLRs the only major release we might expect is the 7D3, a line that does not have a huge following to start with. Lastly, the last bastion of DSLRs is North America, and there we are seeing very strong upticks in MILC adoption.

Taking all of those things into account, we can expect to see accelerated MILC growth in 2018 and 2019. As soon as the bigger holdouts such as Canon and Nikon start moving over to the MILC market, expect to see DSLRs being routed. Like I said, 2019 will be the turning point, DSLRs will fade away pretty quickly after that.
 

Talys

Canon R5
CR Pro
Feb 16, 2017
2,082
362
Vancouver, BC
Tugela said:
MILC adoption will accelerate going forward, it is a simple case of demographics and where the market growth potential is. Younger people are going to favor cameras with integrate computing power into their basic operation, and those will mostly be MILCs. Most of the growth potential for cameras outside of body replacement will be in third world countries, places that don't have attachments to the DSLR concept. There will be a number of major releases in the MILC market, while in DSLRs the only major release we might expect is the 7D3, a line that does not have a huge following to start with. Lastly, the last bastion of DSLRs is North America, and there we are seeing very strong upticks in MILC adoption.

Taking all of those things into account, we can expect to see accelerated MILC growth in 2018 and 2019. As soon as the bigger holdouts such as Canon and Nikon start moving over to the MILC market, expect to see DSLRs being routed. Like I said, 2019 will be the turning point, DSLRs will fade away pretty quickly after that.

Wow. Your hypothesis is loaded with so many assumptions that I don't even know where to begin.

Where does all of this market data come from? How do you know younger people don't proportionately use more smartphones? Or that a slightly, or much older, crowd has more disposable income to spend, potentially, tens of thousands on camera stuff? How do you know that some younger people prefer an OVF? Why on earth do you think 3rd world countries would have the highest growth, when water and food and war can be more pressing problems? And with what money do they buy these super-expensive cameras?

I'll stop there, but just because typing this made me sleepy :)
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
CR Pro
Jul 21, 2010
25,047
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Tugela said:
There will be a number of major releases in the MILC market, while in DSLRs the only major release we might expect is the 7D3, a line that does not have a huge following to start with.

Two new Rebel/xxx(x)D bodies are coming for CP+. Those lines outsell high end APS-C and FF, but that's not 'major', right?


Tugela said:
As soon as the bigger holdouts such as Canon and Nikon start moving over to the MILC market, expect to see DSLRs being routed.

Because Canon isn't already #2 in the MILC segment, right? Or by 'moving over' do you mean stop selling dSLRs, which still outsell MILCs by a 2:1 margin? Because that's a smart, short term move, right?


Tugela said:
Like I said, 2019 will be the turning point, DSLRs will fade away pretty quickly after that.

Like you said, every Canon camera with Digic 7 will have 4K video. Remind me, how'd that work out for you?
 

Talys

Canon R5
CR Pro
Feb 16, 2017
2,082
362
Vancouver, BC
neuroanatomist said:
Tugela said:
As soon as the bigger holdouts such as Canon and Nikon start moving over to the MILC market, expect to see DSLRs being routed.

Because Canon isn't already #2 in the MILC segment, right? Or by 'moving over' do you mean stop selling dSLRs, which still outsell MILCs by a 2:1 margin? Because that's a smart, short term move, right?

EF-M mount cameras don't count, because they're missing the 2 most important aspects that define Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Cameras: full frame, and 4k video.

People who like to say that Canon is #2 in the MILC segment like to conveniently omit that M-series cameras are just DSLRs that are missing mirrors.
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
8,617
1,642
Talys said:
EF-M mount cameras don't count, because they're missing the 2 most important aspects that define Mirrorless Interchangeable Lens Cameras: full frame, and 4k video.

People who like to say that Canon is #2 in the MILC segment like to conveniently omit that M-series cameras are just DSLRs that are missing mirrors.

Ha! +1.

I find these debates are principally about someone wanting to win an argument that it's all about FF mirrorless and Canon still doesn't play there. Until that happens, any data we throw their way...

Tops in FF
Tops in APS-C
Tops globally in overall sales
#2 in mirrorless (in some markets -- I don't know the global situation)

...is dismissed as Canon being the lonely polar bear on a melting iceberg, totally *******.

And the funny thing is, the second Canon does come good with an FF mirrorless platform, it will get picked to pieces like a Thanksgiving turkey for the decisions Canon made with it (full EF mount?! no IBIS?! Only 326 AF points?!). There's no pleasing some folks.

- A
 

AvTvM

EOS R6
Nov 4, 2011
3,165
0
i think the situation with Canon is not aptly described by "you can't please all folks". Quite the opposite. It is amazing, how stupidly patient many/most Canon customers are, given Canon's multiple failures on each and every front of camera system development. :p ::)

"Mirrorless in general", "FF mirrorless" in particular, not fully competitive sensor tech over the last 10 years, no 4k, or something less often mentioned: why no Eye-controlled AF system in any of their digital cameras ... and and and ?

All we are and were getting from stupid Canon over the last 10 years - ever since they fell behind tech leaders -
was an endless stream of always the same, marginally changed mirrorslappers and a bunch of Mk. II, Mk. III, Mk. IV sh*it ... instead of some really groundbreaking, innovative gear.
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
CR Pro
Jul 21, 2010
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Is it more likely that the millions of people who buy cameras that meet their needs are stupidly patient, or that a few individuals who think their personal views represent those of the majority are stupid(ly egotistic)?
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
8,617
1,642
AvTvM said:
All we are and were getting from stupid Canon over the last 10 years - ever since they fell behind tech leaders -
was an endless stream of always the same, marginally changed mirrorslappers and a bunch of Mk. II, Mk. III, Mk. IV sh*it ... instead of some really groundbreaking, innovative gear.

Because we -- and, in this case, you and your expectations -- are. not. the. market. I can't say this enough.

If a smaller camera, Eye AF, 4K, oodles of DR, etc. are what the market wanted, Sony would be stealing Canon market share left and right. That's not happening. (I'm not saying those features aren't desirable, but they are not enough to unseat some large advantages Canon has (lenses, quality, ergonomics, branding, trust, etc.)).

AvTvM, you almost take on the mentality of a climate change denier with this: all the data in the world will not convince you.

- A
 

Talys

Canon R5
CR Pro
Feb 16, 2017
2,082
362
Vancouver, BC
AvTvM said:
i think the situation with Canon is not aptly described by "you can't please all folks". Quite the opposite. It is amazing, how stupidly patient many/most Canon customers are, given Canon's multiple failures on each and every front of camera system development. :p ::)

"Mirrorless in general", "FF mirrorless" in particular, not fully competitive sensor tech over the last 10 years, no 4k, or something less often mentioned: why no Eye-controlled AF system in any of their digital cameras ... and and and ?

All we are and were getting from stupid Canon over the last 10 years - ever since they fell behind tech leaders -
was an endless stream of always the same, marginally changed mirrorslappers and a bunch of Mk. II, Mk. III, Mk. IV sh*it ... instead of some really groundbreaking, innovative gear.

Speaking for only myself:

1. I still don't really like EVFs for my 4 types of photography I do most: birding, backyard wildlife, cat photos (because I use off camera flash), studio photography.

2. I think the 80D/6D2/5D3 sensors are wondrous things that have more DR than I can use - at least, on properly exposed shots.

3. I haven't yet seen a mirrorless with ergonomics I like (meaning, comfortable to use for long shooting periods). That includes Canon's.

4. 4k, 1080p, 720p, the entire video and all audio features can be deleted, for all I care. I would trade it for another custom setting spot on the dial.

5. I would like Eye AF. But if I must choose between OVF and Eye-AF, I will choose OVF every time. I suppose, being able to choose OVF with no Eye AF or LiveView Eye AF would be the ideal compromise for me.

6. I don't like my cameras to change very much from generation to generation. I like them to improve, but being comfortable and controls being reflex actions are an important part of good photography for me. Plus, I will often carry two bodies, with one of them being older. I like that I can use a 5 year old Canon body and a brand new one at the same time with all the important stuff in the same places.

Finally: I really do feel that the DSLR market is pretty mature. For every amazing photo that I see and admire, - largely, what I need to achieve something like that is not more DR or eye AF or whatever. If I were a better photographer, I'd be able to take most of them with a 5D2 or 5D3. Until then, whether I have a 6D2 or A7R3 doesn't really matter.
 

3kramd5

EOS R6
Mar 2, 2012
3,084
405
FWIW he didn’t say “EyeAF” as in the tracking algorithm Sony uses, but eye controlled AF as in the selection mode in canon elan 7ne and some other film SLRs.

AvTvM said:
not fully competitive sensor tech over the last 10 years

What even does that mean, “not fully competitive?”

Canon is the market leader in spatial resolution (notwithstanding medium formats), sensor-level autofocus (widest coverage and PDAF enabled locations), and close to the top in ISO speeds and (again notwithstanding medium format) color depth. They’re somewhat behind in dynamic range.

Where are they not fully competitive? The sensor market itself in which they don’t participate? The only way to judge canon’s sensor competitiveness is through camera sales. Sony wins because Sony provides vastly most camera sensors (to the smart device makers in particular). Who else does canon trail?
 

ahsanford

Particular Member
Aug 16, 2012
8,617
1,642
3kramd5 said:
FWIW he didn’t say “EyeAF” as in the tracking algorithm Sony uses, but eye controlled AF as in the selection mode in canon elan 7ne and some other film SLRs.

Ah, my bad.

So his dream car may have laser cannons, a dorsal shark fin and flame job on it... but the base car is still a 1999 Honda Insight.

Thank you. My AvTvM log has been updated.

- A
 

AvTvM

EOS R6
Nov 4, 2011
3,165
0
i find it very funny that folks who claim they greatly prefer optical viewfinders (OVFs) sing the praise of Canon's DP-AF, which is not active at all in OVF operation, and of limited use in Live-View mode only [DSLRs] and EVF-mirrorless cams. :)

To me, Canon DP-AF is massively overhyped and overrated. No Canon DP-AF equipped camera - DSLRs and mirrorless alike - delivers "best-in class AF performance" ... despite all those DP-AF shenanigans.

Sony A6500 AF dances circles around EOS M5/M6, Olympus EF-M1 dito, higher end Panasonics as well, [decent] Fuji models are not better but not worse either.

To me ... I would happily trade DP-AF for 2 more stops DR at base ISO and a "regular" combo AF [on-sensor Phase-AF for speed followed by CD-AF for accuracy].
 

privatebydesign

I post too Much on Here!!
CR Pro
Jan 29, 2011
10,265
5,387
AvTvM said:
i find it very funny that folks who claim they greatly prefer optical viewfinders (OVFs) sing the praise of Canon's DP-AF, which is not active at all in OVF operation, and of limited use in Live-View mode only [DSLRs] and EVF-mirrorless cams. :)

To me, Canon DP-AF is massively overhyped and overrated. No Canon DP-AF equipped camera - DSLRs and mirrorless alike - delivers "best-in class AF performance" ... despite all those DP-AF shenanigans.

Sony A6500 AF dances circles around EOS M5/M6, Olympus EF-M1 dito, higher end Panasonics as well, [decent] Fuji models are not better but not worse either.

To me ... I would happily trade DP-AF for 2 more stops DR at base ISO and a "regular" combo AF [on-sensor Phase-AF for speed followed by CD-AF for accuracy].

There is less than 1/2 stop of DR difference between all those cameras at base ISO...

Get the camera that suits you best with the features you value most, Canon make what they make, they don't care about you or me so get over it.
 

Talys

Canon R5
CR Pro
Feb 16, 2017
2,082
362
Vancouver, BC
AvTvM said:
i find it very funny that folks who claim they greatly prefer optical viewfinders (OVFs) sing the praise of Canon's DP-AF, which is not active at all in OVF operation, and of limited use in Live-View mode only [DSLRs] and EVF-mirrorless cams. :)

To me, Canon DP-AF is massively overhyped and overrated. No Canon DP-AF equipped camera - DSLRs and mirrorless alike - delivers "best-in class AF performance" ... despite all those DP-AF shenanigans.

Sony A6500 AF dances circles around EOS M5/M6, Olympus EF-M1 dito, higher end Panasonics as well, [decent] Fuji models are not better but not worse either.

To me ... I would happily trade DP-AF for 2 more stops DR at base ISO and a "regular" combo AF [on-sensor Phase-AF for speed followed by CD-AF for accuracy].

I vastly prefer OVF and I am a DP booster, so I guess you mean peeps like me.

I'll keep it simple: use a Nikon, go to live view, and try to take some photos. It is freaking unusable. Even for stills, it is painful.

Just because 95%+ of my photography is with OVF doesn't mean that I don't appreciate live view and DP the other 5% of the time. One use is tripod, high up, with screen tilted down. Instead of climbing a ladder, I AF with a remote trigger and take the shots.

Or, I might be at an event in a crowd where I have to reach up to take a shot. DP just WORKS the way live view autofocus should.
 

9VIII

EOS 5D Mark IV
Feb 8, 2013
1,843
0
AvTvM said:
i think the situation with Canon is not aptly described by "you can't please all folks". Quite the opposite. It is amazing, how stupidly patient many/most Canon customers are, given Canon's multiple failures on each and every front of camera system development. :p ::)

"Mirrorless in general", "FF mirrorless" in particular, not fully competitive sensor tech over the last 10 years, no 4k, or something less often mentioned: why no Eye-controlled AF system in any of their digital cameras ... and and and ?

All we are and were getting from stupid Canon over the last 10 years - ever since they fell behind tech leaders -
was an endless stream of always the same, marginally changed mirrorslappers and a bunch of Mk. II, Mk. III, Mk. IV sh*it ... instead of some really groundbreaking, innovative gear.

DPAF is groundbreaking, everyone else in the industry must be kicking themselves every day over Canon getting full Phase Detect autofocus across the entire sensor when that feature is undoubtedly more valuable than anything that anyone else in the mirrorless space has come up with yet.
If it were their tech Sony would be advertising DPAF as tens of millions of autofocus points trying to use big numbers to inflate their ego, but Sony can’t do that because they aren’t as innovative as Canon.
Canon is industry leading in everything they want to be, they’re the best in the business at making stuff that the most people want to buy.

The failure of Nikon over the last 10 year is twice as noteworthy as any shortcomings Canon has, for the oldest player in the business to be running themselves into the ground over and over (Nikon 1, SnapBridge, KeyMission) has got to be the biggest slice of industry news this century.
 

Mikehit

EOS R6
Jul 28, 2015
3,336
541
AvTvM said:
All we are and were getting from stupid Canon over the last 10 years - ever since they fell behind tech leaders -
was an endless stream of always the same, marginally changed mirrorslappers and a bunch of Mk. II, Mk. III, Mk. IV sh*it ... instead of some really groundbreaking, innovative gear.

10 years....10 YEARS...??
Canon has been making uncompetitive cameras for 10 YEARS (!!!) and Sony and Nikon have still not replaced them as #1? Jeez, their products must be shite once you look at everything but the sensor. What on earth have Sony/Nikon been doing to not be able to pick up all those gazillion of new users (you know, the ones with no legacy lenses to hold them back) to fail so miserably to not be number one!!!! AFTER....10....WHOLE....YEARS....!!!

Outside the sensor the rest of their cameras must be complete cack to blow their obvious and clear superiority.
 

AvTvM

EOS R6
Nov 4, 2011
3,165
0
as written before: stupid Canon was and is extremely fortunate to have even more stupid competition.
Sony obviously wants to repeat their Betamax experience one more time. And stupid mirrorslapping Nikon hopefully will falter soon. Olympus .. dwarf sensors. Fuji: APS-C and "pseudo"-MF only instead of launching a killer FF mirrorless system... all of it helps Canon to survive despite all their fails and stupidity.
 

Talys

Canon R5
CR Pro
Feb 16, 2017
2,082
362
Vancouver, BC
AvTvM said:
as written before: stupid Canon was and is extremely fortunate to have even more stupid competition.
Sony obviously wants to repeat their Betamax experience one more time. And stupid mirrorslapping Nikon hopefully will falter soon. Olympus .. dwarf sensors. Fuji: APS-C and "pseudo"-MF only instead of launching a killer FF mirrorless system... all of it helps Canon to survive despite all their fails and stupidity.

With your brilliance, you should apply for an executive position at one of the camera manufacturers. Surely then, you could cure them of their stupidity and they would sweep the market. 8)