Only a "my Canon dealer told me" post, but maybe there is some truth to it

[pedro]

And it goes:

"I just came back from my pro photo retailer. I went there to preorder a D800 plus 24-70 and 70-200.
My main equipment got accidentally trashed so have to start from scratch, as only my old backup equipment survived. While I do posses some analog Nikon stuff, in the last 10 years of DSLR have always been with Canon. But I have had enough of basic incremental upgrades and ridiculous AF in anything but the 1D series. The new D800 is the 5D3 I was expecting for all those years. I do photo and video at 50/50 rate.
So, while talking with the shop owner this morning, exposing him my situation and my decision to switch brands, he told me off the record, that the Canon rep had told them a couple of days ago that something WILL be announced by the end of the month. This is confirmed. What exactly? They weren't given further details, but they were told it was "5D related and better than the 5D2". He also told me that it won't be a direct 5D2 replacement, as the 5D2 will remain on the line up. "It will be a camera between the 5D2 and the 1Dx" (those were his words).
I trust my retailer, they've been in the business for over 30 years, it's the pro shop for a area of 1mill people, and I got this info only when I talked directly to the owner, after 30 mins chatting with his employes. It's hard to say how accurate the info they were given is, maybe it will directly replace the 5D2 after all. But I can tell the Canon rep has advanced him this in order to prevent people like me to switch (the shop sells all kinds of brands, plus Profoto studio stuff and such).
After this news I've decided to postpone my decision for a few weeks.
I still like everything in the D800 and I don't mind brands at all, only fear to lose "tactile memory" and the white color on the lenses, for the rest I don't care. I will attend the D800 presentation next week and wait till the end of the month. I can get away with a 20-25MPx 5D3 as long as it includes everything else the D800 has.
Let's see what happens."

Cheers, Pedro

to follow the thread:

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=40623929

 

[barryjphoto]

This is going to be good, pass the popcorn….

The funny thing is that if you went in as a natural Nikonian and just ordered, there would be nothing to post about. Yet the passion is red hot right now about Canon keeping up or not and folks just cannot help themselves and must discuss the 'switch'. I hope your chat with the Dealer comes to fruition and you and many others get the body they want. Me, I'm looking to upgrade my body but most likely with a used 7D which I hope the market will be flooded with and drive prices down.

 

[marekjoz]

It might be nothing but truely: if the seller was about to lose his credibility and potentially lose an order then there someting could be about it. As far as he was really good informed himself.

 

[Joker328]

I don't know why, but I find this pretty convincing. I mean if you were going there to buy a brand new Nikon camera, why would he make up some story to convince you to WAIT and buy something later. No business person in their right mind would do that, UNLESS the owner actually values his customers and was sharing some inside info to win your long-term business, which does make a lot of sense in the photo business. So you have to figure the owner is probably telling you what he heard from the rep. The only question is whether the rep is honest, or just making stuff up to cut into Nikon's D800 preorders. Again, if he has any interest in maintaining long-term business, this would be a dumb move, but I've seen sales people do dumber things.

 

[marekjoz]

I don't know why, but I find this pretty convincing. I mean if you were going there to buy a brand new Nikon camera, why would he make up some story to convince you to WAIT and buy something later. No business person in their right mind would do that, UNLESS the owner actually values his customers and was sharing some inside info to win your long-term business, which does make a lot of sense in the photo business. So you have to figure the owner is probably telling you what he heard from the rep. The only question is whether the rep is honest, or just making stuff up to cut into Nikon's D800 preorders. Again, if he has any interest in maintaining long-term business, this would be a dumb move, but I've seen sales people do dumber things.

Yes, I agree with this one

 

[willrobb]

Very interesting, if the info is fairly solid and if it's something a bit more than a 5D2 bit not quite a 1DX (as you would expect from sn upgrade) AND the 5D2 would be continued this new mystery camera could pack quite a punch me thinks.

Hold off on the jump to Nikon for a little while...

 

[CJRodgers]

I really hope they dont price the new 5d replacement wrong. A price right in the middle the current 5dii price and 1dx price is too high for a lot of people that want to upgrade. That would be about £3000gbp. Or maybe im just tight. I hope they price it similar to the d800 at £2300gbp at the most.

Do people think the 5dmkii will loose much value or stay at the same price?

 

[vuilang]

Whatever the new cam: Hopefully it wont be anymore than $3500

 

[wickidwombat]

good idea to wait and see what news comes in a couple of weeks, hope you old backup gear can cover you in the meantime. sorry about the loss of your gear i hope you had insurance to pick up the tab on the new gear.

one thing i cant believe Nikon havent addressed is that tiny Dpad controller on the back its really a frustrating setup

 

[tt]

I'd say maybe £2999. After a few months the retailers can drop it to £2850 or so if they want. The new 5D isn't going to be 2007/2008 prices.

 

[Noink Fanb0i]

If this guy is like most other camera dealers, he'd be trying to upsell you a more expensive model. In effect, what he's saying is: "hey, don't spend $3K on the D800, wait for a few weeks and I'd sell you the 5D3 for a few hundred $$$ more". Cha-ching j/k

 

[Noink Fanb0i]

It makes more sense if the 5D2 would indeed remain in the lineup as the "entry-level" ~$2K FF cam, while the 5D3 goes up and beats the D800 on specs to justify its >$3K price. Sandwich the Nikon in between the two Canon FF bodies.

 

[Flake]

I don't know why, but I find this pretty convincing. I mean if you were going there to buy a brand new Nikon camera, why would he make up some story to convince you to WAIT and buy something later. No business person in their right mind would do that, UNLESS the owner actually values his customers and was sharing some inside info to win your long-term business, which does make a lot of sense in the photo business. So you have to figure the owner is probably telling you what he heard from the rep. The only question is whether the rep is honest, or just making stuff up to cut into Nikon's D800 preorders. Again, if he has any interest in maintaining long-term business, this would be a dumb move, but I've seen sales people do dumber things.

I wonder just how many pre order sales from people switching to Nikon are cancelled and switched back to Canon when their new model is announced a few weeks later. What does the dealer gain from telling you about the Canon? Well it's a lot of admin work for someone who can probably sell every D800 / 5D MkII they're allocated, but having to turn a customer away when they're sold is unpalatable especially if someone later changes their mind. Better to get it right with a considered buyer than either a customer who fickley changes their mind, or later has regrets over that choice.

As for the performance of the D800 I'm surprised by the number of people who are obviously blinded by the megapixel count. For me that is a big negative, it means hugely extended workflow as everything takes longer, and more storage for shoots. No one commercially needs files this big, people have been shooting commercially on 12MP Nikons for years without complaint.

I shall wait until the first reviews of the Nikon D800, especially with regard to noise & dynamic range, I'm too committed to Canon for mine to be an easy change, but I'm sure that any 5D MkII replacement will easily meet the demands of professional clients.

 

[bycostello]

i'd not hold my breath...

 

[birdman]

I believe Canon has a viable opponent to the D800. My only concern is....Will the IQ be better?

The AF needs to be at least 45-pt. from predecessor 1D series. Hopefully it will be 61pt new setup.

Finally, I wonder what happened to the 28MP or 32MP specs we kept hearing months ago. Everything says 22MP.

Nikon has had better ISO performance in last gen, namely because at 12MP it's easier to achieve. Going forward, we can only surmise how that will play out this generation. It's hard for me to believe Canon is not doing everything in its power to defeat Nikon at its own game. The D800 is VERY tempting, but I know reviews are needed before I dump my Canon gear. Also, I have the D7000 and 3 primes already...35/1.8, 50/1.8D, 85/1.8D. The switch is not that big a jump for me. But my 5dII bests the D7000 in metering and skin tones. Canon DSLRs have better ergonomics also, and I want to stay with them. But the longer I hold onto my 5dII and D7000, the more their value will plummet.

 

[psolberg]

I believe Canon has a viable opponent to the D800. My only concern is....Will the IQ be better?

The AF needs to be at least 45-pt. from predecessor 1D series. Hopefully it will be 61pt new setup.

Finally, I wonder what happened to the 28MP or 32MP specs we kept hearing months ago. Everything says 22MP.

Nikon has had better ISO performance in last gen, namely because at 12MP it's easier to achieve. Going forward, we can only surmise how that will play out this generation. It's hard for me to believe Canon is not doing everything in its power to defeat Nikon at its own game. The D800 is VERY tempting, but I know reviews are needed before I dump my Canon gear. Also, I have the D7000 and 3 primes already...35/1.8, 50/1.8D, 85/1.8D. The switch is not that big a jump for me. But my 5dII bests the D7000 in metering and skin tones. Canon DSLRs have better ergonomics also, and I want to stay with them. But the longer I hold onto my 5dII and D7000, the more their value will plummet.

IQ being better will depend on your shooting style. Nothing in the ISO 50-400 will touch the D800 period. Physics are physics and it is a given that just like when nikon used 12MP to 1up canon's 20MP in high iso, they are now choosing to give up some ground in light sensitivity to gain raw detail. I don't know why they are doing so but if I had to take a guess, it is because they are confortable with their results that they feel that going farther in the ISO race will just benefit an ever decreasing number of people. Nikon didn't go the MP route in the last generation because they likely felt sensor technology had to catch up for it them be worth it, and they saw and successfuly exploited the need for more sensitivity. It would have been relatively trivial for them to have made the D700 a 24+MP DSLR. On the other hand, canon seems to feel that they are OK staying another 4 years at 20MP and buming the ISO boundaries a few stops higher. So if you define your baseline of IQ in the high ISO ranges, then the D5III will be better. Yet don't forget that just like the 5DII can look about the same as a D700 downsampled to 12MP, downsampling 36MP to 22MP can indeed help reduce the apparent noise. We all justified the 5DII increased pixel density and noise this way over the D700 but the other camp can now play the same game.

Who is right and who is wrong is a silly discussion to have because neither is right or wrong. Photography is all about trade offs and I can come up with plenty of shooting situations and styles to justify either camera. The bottom line is that you're unlikely to go wrong with either a D800 or 5DIII. It will just come down to what da heck is it that you shoot and what your output quality must be.

I know if I shot landscapes for a living at ISO 100 and f/8, a D800 with a 14-24mm and that new Lee fitler holder for that lens is probably nothing short of nirvana. But I don't do landscapes so I wouldn't care for a D800. Much more interested in the 22MP 5DIII.

 

[briansquibb]

IQ being better will depend on your shooting style. Nothing in the ISO 50-400 will touch the D800 period.

... and Canon flash are useless too - sounding like a Nikon troll.

There is no way to know which is the best camera for IQ apart from testing all the cameras side by side

 

[sublime LightWorks]

I don't know why, but I find this pretty convincing. I mean if you were going there to buy a brand new Nikon camera, why would he make up some story to convince you to WAIT and buy something later. No business person in their right mind would do that, UNLESS the owner actually values his customers and was sharing some inside info to win your long-term business, which does make a lot of sense in the photo business. So you have to figure the owner is probably telling you what he heard from the rep. The only question is whether the rep is honest, or just making stuff up to cut into Nikon's D800 preorders. Again, if he has any interest in maintaining long-term business, this would be a dumb move, but I've seen sales people do dumber things.

Assuming the story is a true one, I have to agree....my gut tells me that, when you look at the gaps in the current Canon lineup, the level of technology in the mid-range units, and the competition it faces at the moment, if they wait any longer, they will lose out on sales and public awareness.

If you couple new releases with an advertising campaign during the Olympics, Euro 2012, the TdF, etc., that's a lot of exposure to put you back on top of the heap.

Having said all that, I've said previously I don't realistically expect to see 1Dx AF in the 5D2 replacement, I believe we will see some kind of improved 1D4/7D AF and metering system, 6fps, and the core elements of stuff found in the 1Dx and 7D (gigabit Ethernet, horizon and grid viewfinder, zone shooting modes, a bit better weather sealing), 60 fps video, and a 22Mpix sensor that will come close, but not surpass the 1Dx IQ.

Extending, I think a new 7D (7Dx??) will be more of the 1Dx in APS-C sensor format at 8fps and a similar AF to the 5D2 replacement mentioned above. Thinking that could have 18Mpix APS-C sensor, single CF card slot, optional grip, accepts same 1Dx options (wifi module, etc.), $2000


**** If Canon really wanted to turn the market on it's head, here's a camera that would be nice to see (mythical 3Dx):

- 18Mpix FF sensor with same IQ performance as the 1Dx
- 8 fps
- 1Dx AF and metering
- single CF card slot
- 7D level weather sealing
- optional grip
- 85% of the functional features of the 1Dx (less a few items 1Dx specific or pro-level specific)
- accepts same 1Dx options (wifi, etc.)
- $3400

The above camera would work just fine with one Digic 5 and one Digic 4 (for the 1Dx AF and metering). It would be a true "baby 1Dx" for the upper-midrange market.

You'd then have (high to low):

1Dx - full pro camera
3Dx - 80% pro-level or advanced wedding (slower fps, smaller body, a few less features, not full weather sealed compared to 1Dx)
5Dx - serious studio and wedding FF with the extra pixels for cropping and detail
7Dx - high-end APS-C, solid all-round performance in a crop body
70D
Txi series
1Gx

The new video cameras (C300's, 4K, and future 8K, 12k, 24k) will be in their own branch, but still part of the EOS line.

For the record, my photography business is second to my career job which pays me a hell of a lot more than shooting does, but I do run two successful photography operations. I use my Canon 5Dmk2 and 7D bodies heavily, as well as a PhaseOne I'm still getting to know. As my working as expanded, I find myself needing a solid workhorse that can handle any situation that comes up. I see myself going the 1Dx upgrade path by the end of this year (unless that 3Dx I listed above happens) and I'd likely sell the 5Dmk2 to one of my event second shooters. I'd keep the 7D as my second DSLR body and for the extra reach the crop gives me, especially when a 1.4x tele-extender isn't enough.

 

[pj1974]

Like the above post, a lot of this makes sense to me, provided it is an accurate story. I've given applauses to the folks who've highlighted the logic - and presented options about what could be happening with possible Canon releases

Before reading this thread, I'd just posted in another thread about the 5DX/5DmkIII - basically indicating that I believe a 5DmkIII will come out, but there is space for a higher megapixel 3D.

Full post there at http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?topic=3494.msg73576;topicseen#new

In summary, here is my take on the future Canon line-up:

APS-C
- 1200D ('budget') 12MP 3fps. Basic 9pt AF & budget sensor. Smallest body & OVF.
- 650D ('consumer') 18MP 4fps. 9pt with cross-type & better sensor. Better display & OVF.
- 70D ('amateur') 18MP 6fps. 9pt AF with more cross-type AF pts. Better body & OVF.
- 7DmkII ('prosumer') 22MP 8fps. 19pt AF, cross-type AF pts. Best APS-C body & OVF.

FF
- 5DmkIII ('enthusiast') 26MP 5fps. 19pt AF downgraded 7D AF, A few cross-type AF pts.
- 3D ('premium') 34MP 8fps. 45 AF, many cross-type and extra sensitivity AF pts. Better body.
- 1DX ('professional') 18MP 14fps. 61AF. Full professional body. Highest connectivity and feature set.

Hmmmm... Interesting times!!

Paul

 

[Chuck Alaimo]

I don't know why, but I find this pretty convincing. I mean if you were going there to buy a brand new Nikon camera, why would he make up some story to convince you to WAIT and buy something later. No business person in their right mind would do that, UNLESS the owner actually values his customers and was sharing some inside info to win your long-term business, which does make a lot of sense in the photo business. So you have to figure the owner is probably telling you what he heard from the rep. The only question is whether the rep is honest, or just making stuff up to cut into Nikon's D800 preorders. Again, if he has any interest in maintaining long-term business, this would be a dumb move, but I've seen sales people do dumber things.

Reading this, one thing does pop into my mind as a potential reason why a salesmen would do this - simply stated, could it be that the way markup/commission works, the store ends up making more off new canon product than nikon does? Just a thought. Also, depending on the store, they may prefer (have better contract with) either Nikon or Canon. Here where I live there are 2 good stores, both sell canon and nikon, but one is the official canon store and the other is the official nikon store - maybe something similar is going down? Or it could even be something simpler - maybe the canon rep has been working that route for some time and has become friends with the owner. If thats the case, the owner may simply want to help out his buddy by encouraging more canon sales?