This is exactly how stock traders react if you confront them that stock-picking is an illusion of skill (see Daniel Kahneman, thinking fast and slow work). It's their job so they rather defend it. What would you rather like to hear when doing your work that your skilled or based on luck? People tend to see personal outcomes more as a result of skill. While outcomes of other are more a result of randomness in their eyes (look up contribution bias). Predicting the future accurate is an illusion as well IMO. To many variables going on in the world and rare events.
If you didn't like Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb try the book from Daniel Kahneman, thinking fast and slow. The evidence you asked can be find over there. Widely respected guy and a Nobel Prize winner. Try not to be biased against me just because I quoted you about your speculation about the release date of the R1. I highly recommend those books, give them a read with an open mind. If your opinion is still different after that no worries. Each on their own.
The problem IMO in your previous posts is you gather loose bits of info and make up a story of it (and seem extremely confident about it). Based on some research you think you have the whole picture and can predict the future. In reality you have a few pieces (information) of the puzzle. What if the pieces (of information) you don't own and you don't know exist, have a bigger effect on the outcome than the pieces you already have (info)?
Look up illusion of validity a cognitive bias. Last week you seem overly confident the R1 doesn't get released this year or before 2024 (just because that is the pattern Canon usually follows with the 1DX). This rumor is pointing in a different direction (if it's true idk, time will tell). I don't speculate on that just noticing some fallacies in your posts. Let me do the search for you '
Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates his or her ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analysing a set of data, in particular when the data analysed show a very consistent pattern—that is, when the data "tell" a coherent story '
Since your also into trading have a look here as well: The
Illusion of Stock-picking .