Note... this is how you have a discussion.
2020 turned out
better than projected by Canon. A few months back it was reported they have inched into
45.4% of the a shrinking camera market. To me that means that their volume of shipping products was least impacted among all the brands. A good thing if you want Canon to be solvent so your system stays relevant and a bad thing if you want Canon to innovate due to competition.
When the EOS R came out in 2018 it signaled to me that there would be no more further development of the EF mount and whatever bodies made available by Sep 2018 will be continued to be produced until demand is too expensive to cater for.
This makes the 1D X Mark III somewhat of a paradox. I was expecting the R1 in 2020 but often with mission critical hardware you tend to err on being conservative. Last thing Reuters, Getty, EPA, etc want is new tech that may not function as expected.
This is a fundamental reason why I see the R1 to more likely appear by Q1 2024.
Will the release of the R1 significantly offset the loss on the 1D X Mark III? This will cause the
Osborne Effect.
It is very difficult and very expensive to move from 1 system to another if you have a large and built up ecosystem in place. My guess is that
Sony gave a very generous discount to AP to switch their whole operations to their hardware last year. I would not be surprised that Sony gave up any margin to get them as a client to legitimize their system among photo news agencies.
RF mount lens will perform better than EF mount lens due to more modern engineering and better materials science. Canon needs to transition at least 80% of the L lenses before the R1 would be taken seriously.
If Canon positioned the R1 as more expensive than the $6,499 1D X Mark III then I see it as very probable to come out this year but that would make the Sony a9 II half it's price.
Will there be a 2022 Olympics?
If I was the OIC I'd push everyone back by 4 years. Tokyo 2024, Paris 2028, etc.