The Canon EOS R1 may not come until the 2nd half of 2023 [CR2]

dolina

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Are you suggesting that new RF non-IS versions of the 70-200 zooms would somehow serve as cheap alternatives to the IS versions? Sorry, but LOL. Still not seeing the point of non-IS versions. Same story for the telephoto primes.

Canon could easily keep those lenses unchanged because the development was a sunk cost. That would not be the case for new RF versions, which is why we won't see them. Canon wants people to buy the RF 100-500L with extenders, and for those without sufficient funds they offer the RF 100-400, 600/11 and 800/11.
I would like to clarify that I never said that there are RF non-IS versions of the 70-200 zooms today or more general telephoto zooms that fits within 70-300mm range. I expect those to come before year 2030.

Look at this from a price strategy point of view that covers all price points. It may come to a surprise to many but not everyone can afford the latest & greatest at the drop of the hat. Canon is interested in offering goods to all users.

Take the most basic of focal lengths: the 50mm

Low-end <$180
Mid-end ~$399
High-end >$1,000
Doing this Canon catered to low, medium and high ends of the market. Updates are only made when design & manufacturing cost improvements are possible.

As Canon has a generous margin this allows 3rd party lens brands like Sigma, Tamron, Tokina, etc exists.

Historically the EF bodies does the same
  • APS-C has 8 product lines that ranges from entry $389 to top end $1,799.
  • Full frame has 4 product lines that ranges from entry $1,999 to top end $6,499.
RF bodies is continuing this as well
  • Full frame has 6 product lines that ranges from entry $999 to top end $5,999
  • APS-C has 2 product lines that ranges at $949 & $1,499.
 
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neuroanatomist

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I would like to clarify that I never said that there are RF non-IS versions of the 70-200 zooms today or more general telephoto zooms that fits within 70-300mm range. I expect those to come before year 2030.
You suggested there will be RF non-IS versions of the 70-200 zooms. I disagree, and nothing you've said supports the idea that such lenses will ever be made or explains why they would be made. Especially given that IBIS is much less effective at telephoto focal lengths, dropping OIS is a big functional hit. You just put them on a list that appears to be a straight port of the current lineup with only the first letter of the lens designation changed. That list also included an RF 24-70/2.8...honestly, given there is currently an RF 24-70/2.8 IS, do you really expect a non-IS version of that lens to be released in the next 3 years, as you stated? Sorry, but that's just silly. Granted, you said 'possible' lenses but if you think it's possible Canon will release non-IS versions of the RF 14-35/4 IS and 15-35/2.8 IS, for example, then you are barking up the wrong tree or just plain barking mad.

Look at this from a price strategy point of view that covers all price points. It may come to a surprise to many but not everyone can afford the latest & greatest at the drop of the hat. Canon is interested in offering goods to these users.

Take the most basic of focal lengths: the 50mm

Low-end <$180
Mid-end ~$399
High-end >$1,000
Doing this Canon catered to low, medium and high ends of the market. Updates are only made when design & manufacturing cost improvements are possible.

As Canon has a generous margin this allows 3rd party lens brands like Sigma, Tamron, Tokina, etc exists.
The 'low end' of the 70-200 zooms was the 70-200/4 non-IS, and that's the only one of them that was <$1,000 at launch. Today, there is already the RF 100-400 that lists at $650. There's not going to be an RF 70-200/4 non-IS. Period.

It seems to be your contention that Canon will simply clone the EF lineup into RF versions. Of course, there will be several equivalent lenses, but Canon will not clone the full list and I'd expect most of the RF counterparts to offer improvements in some areas (e.g. broader zoom ranges) with compromises in others (e.g. slower variable apertures), as we've already seen.
 

dolina

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You suggested there will be RF non-IS versions of the 70-200 zooms. I disagree, and nothing you've said supports the idea that such lenses will ever be made or explains why they would be made. Especially given that IBIS is much less effective at telephoto focal lengths, dropping OIS is a big functional hit. You just put them on a list that appears to be a straight port of the current lineup with only the first letter of the lens designation changed. That list also included an RF 24-70/2.8...honestly, given there is currently an RF 24-70/2.8 IS, do you really expect a non-IS version of that lens to be released in the next 3 years, as you stated? Sorry, but that's just silly. Granted, you said 'possible' lenses but if you think it's possible Canon will release non-IS versions of the RF 14-35/4 IS and 15-35/2.8 IS, for example, then you are barking up the wrong tree or just plain barking mad.


The 'low end' of the 70-200 zooms was the 70-200/4 non-IS, and that's the only one of them that was <$1,000 at launch. Today, there is already the RF 100-400 that lists at $650. There's not going to be an RF 70-200/4 non-IS. Period.

It seems to be your contention that Canon will simply clone the EF lineup into RF versions. Of course, there will be several equivalent lenses.

You are ignoring other people's requirement and buying power.

Everything you said only considers your ability to buy whatever you want.
 

neuroanatomist

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You are ignoring other people's ability to buy. Everything you said only considers your ability to buy whatever you want.
That's not the point. You made the point that Canon has kept some old EF lenses in the lineup because they are cheap alternatives to the newer designs. There aren't any old RF lenses to keep in the lineup as cheap alternatives, the mount itself is only 5 years old.
 

dolina

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That's not the point. You made the point that Canon has kept some old EF lenses in the lineup because they are cheap alternatives to the newer designs. There aren't any old RF lenses to keep in the lineup as cheap alternatives, the mount itself is only 5 years old.

Are you intentionally being obnoxious, disingenuous to make me spend time to provide citations or are you that unaware that the older lenses in the timeline I provided gets discontinued shortly after the newer model comes out?

That's what your sentences communicates.

I have repeatedly said that the RF mount will get more lenses in the future. I even listed these possible RF L lenses out.

Below are actual lens SKUs that can be bought off the shelf now.

Some are straight EF to RF copies
Some are expanded as flange focal distance allows it
Some specific zooms are moved from L to non-L product line
The RF mount was announced in September 2018. As of this posting it is less than 4 years old.

Canon-4-year-plan-728x462.png


CR: Canon’s roadmap includes 32 new lenses by 2026 according to Canon’s CEO

Before year 2030 I expect the majority of any of these RF lenses to come out. I do not include non-L lenses as these are not part of my interests.

RF L Primes
RF L Zooms
  • RF 200-400mm f/4L IS USM Extender 1.4x
  • RF 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6L IS USM
  • RF 70-300mm f/4-5.6L IS USM
  • RF 28-300mm f/3.5-5.6L IS USM
  • RF 70-200mm f/2.8L USM Lens
  • RF 70-200mm f/4L USM Lens
  • RF 24-70mm f/4L IS USM
  • RF 24-70mm f/2.8L USM
  • RF 14-35mm f/4L USM
  • RF 15-35mm f/2.8L USM
  • RF 11-24mm f/4L USM
  • RF 8-15mm f/4L Fisheye USM
I am surprised that Canon did not make the RF 50L & RF 85L have f/1.0 or wider aperture.

There is the
 
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kaihp

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The 100-500 replaces all of them (but I don’t agree with @kaihp that it replaces the 200-400, that lens in in a completely different class).
Definitely in different cost classes ;)

I have no insight into how Canon plans their lens roadmap or which RF lenses 'covers' old EF lenses, so you could very well be right.

I have no bones to pick in this debate, as it is just idle speculation on my side (I already have the EF 200-400mm) reflecting on the non-appearance of a RF 200-400 lenses. Only the future can tell how Canon slices the market.

Just a pity that the EF 200-400mm appears not to take external TCs well :(
 

neuroanatomist

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Are you intentionally being obnoxious, disingenuous to make me spend time to provide citations or are you that unaware that the older lenses in the timeline I provided gets discontinued shortly after the newer model comes out?

That's what your sentences communicates.
You are misreading it, or you are misrepresenting your own statements. I am simply saying there will not be 70-200mm non-IS lenses in the RF mount. You keep listing them as probable forthcoming lenses. It's not going to happen. The only rationale you offered for the existence of the EF 70-200 non-IS versions is that Canon kept them around because they were older, cheaper lenses that competed with 3rd party offerings. The 70-200/2.8 is from 1995, the 70-200/4 is from 1999. They were never updated (as non-IS versions, I mean – the IS versions were released then those were updated 1-2 times). Those old designs were not discontinued because they were cheap, because the designs were old and the R&D expenses were long recouped…and most importantly there was no need to replace them because the IS versions were available.

I have repeatedly said that the RF mount will get more lenses in the future. I even listed these possible RF L lenses out.
Yes, you have. Of course there will be more RF lenses. Who is arguing that point? It's your list that is of questionable accuracy. As @kaihp pointed out initially, you simply listed EF lenses but changed EF to RF. That's not consistent with reality. The above lenses I mentioned are evidence of that. You list an RF 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6L IS USM as a likely lens. Seriously? There is already a 100-500L that is an expanded FL range of the 100-400L I/II. There is a 100-400 non-L. There won't be an RF 100-400L. To suggest there will be merely makes you look foolish and makes if easy to treat your list as worthless, lazy speculation.
 

koenkooi

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neuroanatomist

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Look at this from a price strategy point of view that covers all price points. It may come to a surprise to many but not everyone can afford the latest & greatest at the drop of the hat. Canon is interested in offering goods to all users.

Doing this Canon catered to low, medium and high ends of the market.
The market today is far different from the market 10-20 years ago. Canon may not approach today’s market with the same strategy they employed two decades ago.
 
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neuroanatomist

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The 70-200 isn't not a straight copy, as evidenced by the telescoping zoom design in the RF. The replacement for the 100-400L is the 100-500L, not the 100-400 non-L. The 100-400 non-L seems to replace the EF 70-300 non-L.
The only RF lenses that are essentially straight copies are the 24-105/4L, the RF-S 18-150 and the 400/600 superteles. The others are all new designs.