This is what we know Canon will be announcing for Photokina

[tron]

I believe they try to make the exactly opposite convertor. To connect the poor little silly new future short lenses that they will supposedly design for the delight of a few forum users to the classic forever living EF mount

 

[tron]

And, they use their time to design the new super 7DMkIII and 5DsRII cameras. Because, no matter what internet surfers - and not necessarily Canon users - say the above cameras would sell a lot!

 

[mppix]

I believe they try to make the exactly opposite convertor. To connect the poor little silly new future short lenses that they will supposedly design for the delight of a few forum users to the classic forever living EF mount

Technically, it is possible to fit a pancake inside a 5D once you remove the mirror

And, they use their time to design the new super 7DMkIII and 5DsRII cameras. Because, no matter what internet surfers - and not necessarily Canon users - say the above cameras would sell a lot!

Ditto to that.

 

[zim]

Jeez there Neuro..... chill out! It's not that simple..... There have to be 11 wires in it too!

right that's it, if it doesn't have at least 15 they'll still be playing catch-up with the market leader so I'm offtt. Cnon.

 

[Loswr]

right that's it, if it doesn't have at least 15 they'll still be playing catch-up with the market leader so I'm offtt. Cnon.

Yeah, Canon needs more wires to improve their lens DR.

 

[brad-man]

Since it seems very unlikely that Canon will be releasing a FF MILC this year, I don't understand why this thread was put in the Bodies section. It should have been placed in the Lens category, since the real headline is they're going to release a frickin' EF-M f/1.4 lens! It's not a Sony GM or Zeiss that'll cost $1000+. It's not a puny little micro 4/3 from Fuji. It's a Canon crop f/1.4! History in the making...

 

[Michael Clark]

That makes no difference to my point. FYI, the grey market goods in UK are generally about 20-25% cheaper than the High Street which sorta suggests they are avoiding VAT, which matches your description of prices in the US and how a shop can offer at grey market prices. But that does not avoid the fact prices of 5DIV in UK have been relatively stable for the last 2 years, nor does it avoid the fact that relying on ebay prices to support an argument is dodgy in the extreme.
And my point is that Canon clearly does not need to reduce its prices (if it did they would have done so) yet Sony with supposedly superior products need to reduce theirs to compete with Canon.

That is the problem with the market - it gives a genuine picture of what the population as a whole thinks of a product. I am not saying that Canon does not need to respond because it clearly does. My point is, and always has been, that the urgency with which they need to respond is far, far lower than the doom-mongers, Sony fanboys, and geen-eyed Sony wannabes (those wishing Canon would copy them) make out.

The prices of grey market goods in the US are not based on avoiding VAT.

The U.S. has no VAT nor any other form of national sales/consumption tax. All sales taxes are assessed at the state and local level and vary greatly, but it is rare for the rate to be greater than 10% anywhere. Some places they are much less. When ordering from an online seller that does not have a physical presence in the state to which the item is being delivered, there is very often zero sales tax on the item at all.

 

[transpo1]

There are lots of ways to interpret any piece of information, but some are logical while others are nonsensical. The tech has been around since Sony launched the a7 and a7R in 2013. Hardly new. Yet only now (in one country, for a short time period) is Sony ahead of Canon for FF ILC revenues. The tech isn't different, what's changed is the recent launch of zero FF ILCs by Canon vs. 2 FF ILCs from Sony – one at <$2K (and lower cost is what buyers really want, your "educated buyers" tripe notwithstanding).

So you’re saying that if Canon launched the 6DII now, they would be outselling Sony? That seems quite a dubious claim (Also, quite interesting that Nikon has not been #1 in FF sales in the U.S. in the past year with its D850, since that was a recently released FF camera and by your standards, “newness” is what counts.)

Low cost here is not the issue because Canon has two FF cameras well below the $2K mark- the 6D and 6DII @ $999 and $1599. And actually, you can even buy a 6DII with 24-105L lens for $2499- quite a steal! The equivalent Sony A7III package would run you over $3K. So given all of that, it seems extremely unlikely Sony is selling just on cost either.

And I quote from Nikkei Asian Review, for anyone who missed it:

“Canon will shift more of its focus to mirrorless cameras, a change in strategy spurred by sharp growth in the market. [...]

With mirrorless cameras rapidly gaining popularity and rivals like Sony breaking into SLRs, Canon decided it must ‘actively roll out products for a growth market even if there is some cannibalization,’ Sakata said.”

So there it is. It is Sony’s overall package of FF mirrorless tech in a small package that is getting the dollars, and we can surmise that specs such as DR, low light capability, and 4K video play a big part.

(Anecdotally, two photographer friends in NYC just had a choice to make to buy their first FF cameras- it was between Nikon, Canon, and Sony- one even remarked how she loved the Canon colors, etc. But eventually they both chose Sony A7IIIs on the basis of DR, low light capability, and value.)

Maybe it’s true that the novelty of mirrorless and value of better specs will wear off eventually, but so far, in the first half of 2018, they have not.

Nonsensical argument? Nope- pretty sound reasoning here actually- And I actually backed it up with a quote.

 

[Michael Clark]

Apparently you pull your "facts" from the same nether orifice AvTvM gets his...or maybe you get yours more locally and someplace cleaner, say...from a box of Cracker Jacks. Regardless, according to CIPA for the 6-month period we're talking about, 18% of ILCs went to the Americas (which comprise more than just the US, last time I checked).

And apparently your ability to spew poorly conceived sarcasm far exceeds your ability to perceive it.

 

[Loswr]

So you’re saying that if Canon launched the 6DII now, they would be outselling Sony? That seems quite a dubious claim (Also, quite interesting that Nikon has not been #1 in FF sales in the U.S. in the past year with its D850, since that was a recently released FF camera and by your standards, “newness” is what counts.)

Have you tried shopping for a D850 in the past 6 months? They've been backordered at all major online retailers (although there are a few 3rd party sellers on Amazon selling them for several hundred dollars over MSRP). Kinda hard to sell cameras if they're not available, 'eh?

If Canon had launched a 6DIII at the beginning of the year, I'd bet real $$$ we'd not have seen Sony announcing a lead in FF ILCs in the US for 1H18.

 

[Loswr]

And apparently your ability to spew poorly conceived sarcasm far exceeds your ability to perceive it.

LOL. Try to be more clear with the intent of your sarcasm, mate. Mikehit stated that Canon doesn't care about the US, so your sarcastic reply that 50% of ILCs are sold in the US came off as something you believed, stated in sarcastic tone. Now, it seems you're backpedaling when presented with the actual facts.

 

[dak723]

There's another way to interpret this as well- Sony has the lead with FF because they're the only ones who have FF MILCs. These are cameras with new technology that are more lightweight (at least, the bodies are) and with EVFs suitable for video shooting. The tech is new, and educated FF buyers seem to want it.

Well, you might say "educated FF buyers," but as someone who believed the Sony hype a couple years ago, I would say "gullible suckers..."

 

[3kramd5]

Company A’s position is that they're about to sell FEWER FF ILCs than Company B and C combined.

Fixed this for you, transpo

 

[transpo1]

Have you tried shopping for a D850 in the past 6 months? They've been backordered at all major online retailers (although there are a few 3rd party sellers on Amazon selling them for several hundred dollars over MSRP). Kinda hard to sell cameras if they're not available, 'eh?

If Canon had launched a 6DIII at the beginning of the year, I'd bet real $$$ we'd not have seen Sony announcing a lead in FF ILCs in the US for 1H18.

Well, low FF sales numbers due to lack of manufacturing capacity are still low FF sales numbers- it still counts. Or rather, it doesn’t count- for Nikon.

As for the 6DIII, if it were a 6DIII without a mirror and with the specs I mentioned, I’d say your wager would be right.

 

[amorse]

So you’re saying that if Canon launched the 6DII now, they would be outselling Sony? That seems quite a dubious claim

The 6DII certainly got a bad rap, just like the 6D, but let's not forget that even the 6D was the leading full frame camera in sales on Amazon at one point. Canon even credited their hold on top marketshare in October of 2017 to strong sales of the 6D II, yes, only 3 months after the 6D II was released.

Also, quite interesting that Nikon has not been #1 in FF sales in the U.S. in the past year with its D850, since that was a recently released FF camera and by your standards, “newness” is what counts.

Not true - D850 started shipping in September 2017, and were 1st in full frame by December 2017 or 8 months ago. Also, it was the NPB group that made the claim - the same company claiming Sony's achievement now for full frame.

So to recap, Canon releases a full frame camera (6DII) and then claims keeping top market share because of it's positive sales. Later, Nikon releases a full frame camera, and then claims top market share. Later still, Sony releases 2 full frame cameras, and then claims top market share. This seems like a trend - releasing a full frame camera results in a short term increase in full frame sales.

And I quote from Nikkei Asian Review, for anyone who missed it:

“Canon will shift more of its focus to mirrorless cameras, a change in strategy spurred by sharp growth in the market. [...]

With mirrorless cameras rapidly gaining popularity and rivals like Sony breaking into SLRs, Canon decided it must ‘actively roll out products for a growth market even if there is some cannibalization,’ Sakata said.”

Canon did announce their interest in putting emphasis on the mirrorless market in late February 2018. By July of this year Canon claimed top spot in mirrorless for Japan with the m50 - very much in line with their plan to shift to mirrorless. Frankly, if Canon can say "we want to shift emphasis to mirrorless" then be first in mirrorless only 6 months later, that actually speaks pretty highly of their success.

I'm not trying to insinuate what is better or what people want more, I'm just trying to show that the data all of this is based on is flawed - it's a snapshot in time. Longer term data helps to show what actual marketshare looks like, and for total marketshare Canon still has nearly 50% of the market as of August 1, 2018, and has held the top share for 15 years now. Sony could continue to grow and gain marketshare in more areas, but selling the most of one thing for a short period is not at all indicative of selling a lot of things for a long time.

 

[bokehmon22]

Sony sold 40% of FF by $ for H1. Canon sold 33%.

It's not a good trend for Canon but, there are a few points worth considering...

Sony and Canon are about the same size. Sony is basically an electronics company while Canon is an imaging company. I am sure that Canon will not just let Sony eat its lunch.
Canon still doesn't have a FF mirrorless in the market. If they had a competitive product, I am sure that they would capture top spot.
Based on Canon's history and the position of FF mirrorless, Canon is probably making sure it gets it right before releasing it's FF mirrorless.

Sony has a high resolution EVF 240 fps. If they can incorporated that and learn from Nikon and make a more ergonomic weather seal camera body - watch out. Tamron and Sigma commitment to E lens make it easier to switch too.

 

[Bennymiata]

To me, mirrorless cameras are just a new fashion that so many people are really keen to jump on the bandwagon, otherwise they won't look "hip".
I've got an M5 and love it, and I've used Sonys, but in the cut and thrust of event photography, NOTHING beats a good DSLR.
Mirrorless cameras are just too slow to react. By the time you push the shutter button and actually get the photo taken, you've lost the shot, or it's blurry because the af hasn't hunted enough to get the perfect focus but reckons that because you're pushing the shutter so hard and for so long, it better take SOMETHING.
My 5d3 is virtually instantaneous with a focus hit rate around 99%.
Maybe because I was brought up using film, but spraying and praying (if you can see much through the viewfinder with a mirrorless) isn't my style and I like to wait for the perfect moment. I usually bring home anywhere from 500 to 2,500 shots from a job, and if I sprayed and prayed, I'd have to go through tens of thousands of shots!

Obviously my needs are nothing like other peoples, but in the years to come, I can see people going back to mirrorslappers.
Nothing is as satisfying to shoot with and nothing is as comfortable to hold in your hand all day as a good DSLR.
IMHO.

 

[Loswr]

Well, low FF sales numbers due to lack of manufacturing capacity are still low FF sales numbers- it still counts. Or rather, it doesn’t count- for Nikon.

Oh, agreed. But the point remains – Canon, no new FF, Nikon, one unavailable new FF, Sony 2 new FF. Easy to claim victory when no other teams show up at the match. Educated forum members see that for the hollow (local and likely transient) victory that it is.

 

[Kit.]

Oh, agreed. But the point remains – Canon, no new FF, Nikon, one unavailable new FF, Sony 2 new FF. Easy to claim victory when no other teams show up at the match. Educated forum members see that for the hollow (local and likely transient) victory that it is.

Still, it means that "novelty" sells quite well.

Maybe it's time for Canon to create a "Youtuber" series of cameras, with cool specs, poor reliability, short market life, and PrintPublish button.

 

[justaCanonuser]

I'll be looking closely at the Nikon FF mirrorless options. Canon could take more than another year to bring something to market. It may just be a development announcement in January, which can mean 1 to 2 years before it's in your hands. Canon can be surprisingly slow, in fact some people have been waiting for an update to the 50 f/1.4 for the better part of a decade!

I decided to take a time tunnel approach to Canon, traveled back to Canon's ML age and got two mirrorless Canon 7 bodies plus three original Canon rangefinder lenses. Canon's RF 1.4/50mm lens from early 60s e. g. does not need any upgrade. Great gear for having fun in the street, you simply shoot even without chimping on LCD screens - it's all about imagination. You can have even more fun when you enter a fancy Leica shop with that gear and ask for a fitting lens cap. And the best thing about this gear is: you can't vlog! It protects you from making yourself one of those clowns flooding all channels with their brainless blah blah.