What’s Coming Next from Canon?

[jeff89]

That's a pretty big jump, you're effectively doubling the surface area of the front element. The entire lens would have to be redesigned, from each optical element to the body itself. It would be vastly different from the original 100-500: at least 1 kg heavier and bulkier. If it ever came out, it would certainly not cost "only" $4500-5000 and move much closer to the 100-300.
Canon's never done such a lens refresh. If they want to fill the gap, it'll be with a new lens.

To be fair, Craig did say $5000-6000 white tele lens, and i think a faster RF 100-500 L is a more viable expectation than the RF 300-600 f5.6 L in that price point. They made a big splash with the RF 28-70 f2 L, they would make a huge splash with a RF 100-500 3.2-5 L.

This assumes a 70-85% cost increase to producing a lens a full stop faster, economy of scale and projected sales. I have no idea on Canon’s pricing margins, it’s often said Canon’s profits aren’t driven by their top end gear, presumably because of units sold, but when you see them knock $8000 off the RF 1200 L lens, there’s obviously some room for pricing. Maybe that’s why the speculation of a RF 300-600 L in a sub $7000 range.

Again, if I have to speculate, a faster RF 100-500 L is less to make, unless they ramp up their production of the front and other lens elements that they can use in both the RF 100-300 2.8L and the RF 300-600 5.6L and take advantage of the economy of scale, like they did in their 24 MP sensors (R6 and R8) and other shared sensor cameras.

Things that increase costs are the things we all want, internal zooming and fixed aperture, but at the end of the day we will forgo those things based on sharpness, strong weather sealing and cost.

 

[ScreensMatter]

I suspect Nikon and Sony are making $4000-6000 supertele lenses for the same reason.

Canon has always made very targeted products for specific users, hence why we get both RF 100-400mm and RF 800mm f/11 that no other companies have been able to match in affordability. From my observations RF-mount was a rushed launched. The development capacity of lenses is limited and they have had to make priorities. Some user groups have been left out, astrophotography until recently. They had to let in Sigma and Tamron on RF-S. 4k to 6k supertele lenses will probably come someday. For now they can earn more profit making other lenses that either are higher volume or have better margin.

 

[Surab]

I am very curious about the R8 II though I've an inkling that it won't fit what I want. That's ok because the original R8 already does.

I do for example like that the R8 has no ibis, l and thus a moving part less. Makes me much more confident in throwing it into my daily bag with the 28mm on, inside a small pouch.

So let's what they'll bring, maybe the mark 2 will take the larger 6er batteries?

 

[Surab]

For me it was the upgrade to the 100-500 form EF 100-400 II.

If I could only justify it... haha

 

[Del Paso]

Canon really needs to get with the program on the sub 5-figure "not quite the fastest" supertelephoto market.

Nikon (current prices on Adorama):
400mm f/4.5 - $3050
600mm f/6.3 - $4000
800mm f/6.3 - $6000

Sony:
100-400 f/4.5 - $4300
300mm f/2.8 - $6600

Sigma E-Mount:
500mm f/5.6 - $3300
300-600mm f/4.0 $6600

Canon:
Best we have is doubled 70-200Z, 100-500L, or 200-800 non-L (none really competing in this space).

Maybe we can take a break from 9 wide/ultrawide lenses in the last 18 months or so lol
View attachment 229546

No, no, no!
We can only take a break from wide/ultrawide lenses AFTER the introduction of number 10: The 14mm TS-E !

 

[pererik_2000]

R6 mark ii (~USD2400)? All R bodies can adapt EF and EF-S lenses with the converter.
https://www.proshop.se/Kamera/Canon-EOS-R6-Mark-II-Body/3143406
You may even find a reasonable second hand R5 in Sweden for less money.

The R6 mark ii ($2585) has the same 24 Mpix sensor as R8 (currently $1550 in Sweden) but also with IBIS. It is a much bigger and heavier camera. I like the idea of a lightweight camera like the R8 with somewhat better specifications. IBIS and 32 Mpix sensor is my wish. I doubt that a 24 Mpix (3x2) sensor is good enough for 4K video with 1,6 crop and 16x9 aspect ratio.

 

[Czardoom]

Canon really needs to get with the program on the sub 5-figure "not quite the fastest" supertelephoto market.

Nikon (current prices on Adorama):
400mm f/4.5 - $3050
600mm f/6.3 - $4000
800mm f/6.3 - $6000

Sony:
100-400 f/4.5 - $4300
300mm f/2.8 - $6600

Sigma E-Mount:
500mm f/5.6 - $3300
300-600mm f/4.0 $6600

Canon:
Best we have is doubled 70-200Z, 100-500L, or 200-800 non-L (none really competing in this space)

Canon really needs to get with the program on the sub 5-figure "not quite the fastest" supertelephoto market.

Nikon (current prices on Adorama):
400mm f/4.5 - $3050
600mm f/6.3 - $4000
800mm f/6.3 - $6000

Sony:
100-400 f/4.5 - $4300
300mm f/2.8 - $6600

Sigma E-Mount:
500mm f/5.6 - $3300
300-600mm f/4.0 $6600

Canon:
Best we have is doubled 70-200Z, 100-500L, or 200-800 non-L (none really competing in this space).

...

As primarily a bid photographer, the Canon 100-500L and the Canon 200-800 are the only two lenses I would even consider from this group, even though you consider that they don't even compete. The 3 Nikon lenses certainly look like good value for the money, but they are all primes, so much more difficult to handle for my use, and I would not even consider them. The two Sony lenses, not nearly long enough, although the new zoom sure looks good for other uses. The Sigma 300-600, way too expensive compared to the two Canon options. Under pretty much no circumstances would I need (or use) f/4 for birding.

 

[Czardoom]

I think the reason for no 7D III is because of the transition to mirrorless, the 7D was released in September 2009, the 7D II in September 2015, so it was do for a refresh in September 2019, and even though, Canon had the M-series, Canon was under pressure to address Sony in the mirrorless market, thus they released the Canon R (5D IV sensor) in September 2018, and the RP (6D II sensor) in March 2019. The R5 and R6 were released during the Covid lockdowns, July 2020 and August 2020 with all the uncertainties and supply chain issues. So the R7 was released in June 2022 with the R10 in July 2022.

Canon still had the DSLR's: 1DX III and 5D IV. So with what was going on, I don't think the 7D III refresh was as high of a priority, everyone I know raves about the 7D II, those customers were happy. If I was a birder, I would have gotten a 7D II, but as a landscape guy, I moved from the 7D to the 5D III and 5DS R. There was talk of Nikon going the way of Sears Roebuck, but the Nikon D800 and D850 DSLR's kept the faithful Nikon shooters with hope, until they hit a home run with the Z9 and later Z8. I think I got the last Nikon APS-C, the D780, which was struggling against the mirrorless environment.

Birders like their APS-C sensors, my first entrance into birds was on Safari last year and for that I have the 200-400 f4 + 1.4x, but it left me coming up short more than I would have liked. I had my R5, R6 & R7 on the trip, but since I was a first time safari, I often had the wrong set up on the river or on game drives trying to balance light and length. Then on a trip to the Amazon, I took my R5, R7 and R3, and exchanged the 200-400 for the 300 2.8 and the 200-800 for length. Unfortunately the AF on the R5 isn't nearly as capable as the R5 II and the folks shooting A1 II, as they could track monkeys moving through the trees, while my R5 and R3 struggled mightily.

I have moved my R7 to my underwater photography niche and was looking forward to the R7 II, or a high MP R3 which is even more of a question mark than the R7 II. I was thinking about converting a R5 or maybe R5 II also, but now I think I am going to go the Sony A7CR or wait on the A7CR II for my FF underwater camera as it affords higher MP's in a smaller housing.

As far as future buyers, I think those in the R50 segment, will probably be more of a candidate for a R10 I/II or R8 I/II. Heck the RP is still selling, long after the R. I think the people that are most enthusiastic about the R7 II are wildlife and to a lesser extent, outdoor sports shooters, they want a premium APS-C flagship, if you ask them , they would really like for it to be a R1 APS-C camera, is Canon going there, highly unlikely, but Canon wants to hold on to that segment, there are plenty of other cameras for new buyers to hop into the brand. How many birders would opt for a R6 I/II over the R7? How many will opt for a R6 III or wait for the R7 II? I am in the wait crowd, as my current travel combo now is the R1 & R5 II.

I am amazed that people have already forgotten the Covid lockdowns and supply chain issues (toilet paper ?). There were a lot of abnormal things occurring, and the current Iran/Strait of Hormuz oil and supply chain issues are probably forcing them to be flexible. Heck, with talk of the market dropping 40-60% here in the US, the camera market may all but dry up.

Some good points, but I think you are ignoring the 6 year gap between 7D and 7D II and the 7 year gap between the 7D II and the R7. And the fact that Nikon has never made a successor to their "flagship" wildlife crop camera, the D500. Judging from people on this forum and other places, I also think that many folks who were looking for a higher end R7, ended up going full frame with the higher mp R5. I think, all things considered, we are talking about a niche camera. I bought the R7 because it was affordable. As primarily a bird photographer, a high-end, more expensive R7 II does not interest me at all. Price matters. This is not to say I don't think Canon may indeed go high end with the R7 II. I think that the R7 and R10 may be too close in terms of specs, so taking the R7 to another level might make perfect sense.