What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2013?

A few years back, a lady colleague asked me advise on which camera she should buy to take to parties and to snap her kids.

So with her Powershot she took pics that 99.99% of photographers would delete immediately. Yet she got way more comments on FB with her pics than some togs got with their DSLRs.

This calibre of photographers are today more than happy with their camera phones. They can snap and upload straight to FB without needing a PC or the such.

In my personal opinion, this segment of photographers are lost to dedicated camera manufacturers as the mobile they can slip into their bags/pocket/bra does everything they need.

Canon should make entry level DSLRs more attractive to entry level photographers as this is the gateway drug, as it were.

Strengthen the lens line up by replacing those decades old versions and make sure they out perform 3rd party lenses! Give us a 400 series RT flash and consider price drops on certain peripherals like flash brackets, macro lens adaptors etc

Just my two cents which will mean nothing to Canon's pricing structure or hardware lineup.
 
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Not all parts of the photography market are in decline its easy to paint a doom & gloom picture but the fact is we have lived through the last five years of unpresedented sensor development and that development is still relatively young. Canon, Fuji, Panasonic are all working on three layer sensors to mimic film, larger fab wafers from 200mm to 300mm which will improve yeald and more developments in ASICS, FPGAs etc that will allow a greater level of processing & control.
 
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GfK report Sept 2013:
Basic compact cameras with little zoom capability, in particular, are facing competition from smartphones with their camera functions. Sales were down 40 percent in the first half of 2013. However, top-quality digital camera sales increased, in part quite substantially, depending on their target group and intended area of application. For example, full-frame single-lens reflex cameras were up 26 percent. With a high average selling price of €2,245, they accounted for 14 percent of all cameras sold in terms of value and had a significantly favorable impact on retail sales. They just about make up for the falling sales of single-lens reflex cameras with smaller sensors [fewer pixels] (-10 percent) and compact mirror-less system cameras (-8 percent). Meanwhile, interchangeable lens system cameras now account for around half of all camera sales.
What happens in single-lens reflex and mirror-less cameras very much affects what happens to sales in the interchangeable lens market. In value terms, they already account for 22 percent of the photo market (cameras and lenses together). That shows how much potential there is for the accessory market as people move increasingly into high-end cameras.
 
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GfK Photography Summit Dec 2013:
In the best analog times, some 70 million cameras were sold every year worldwide, 10 percent of which were SLR cameras. In 2010, the market grew to its peak of 136 million units. Even though numbers in sub- sequent years fell considerably, the importance of high-value cameras has
actually increased quite considerably, she said. In 2013, for example, SLR and compact system cameras accounted for more than 20 percent of the volume. The most important growth drivers, said Knoche, were innovation and ease of use. At the same time, it was true to say that, for consumers, the possibility of sharing their emotions with other people was now evidently more important than picture quality.
8 billion image-capture devices:
A look at the sales figures underlines the extent of the digital revolution: Arndt Polifke, Global Director Telecom GfK Consumer Choices, estimates the num- ber of smartphones sold worldwide in 2013 at 1.007 billion, which represents an increase of nearly 47 percent com- pared with the previous year. On top of this, there are 725 million feature phones (down 19 percent) and 243 million tablets (up 83 percent). Here, the proportion of inexpensive devices (less than 100 euros) is rising considerably. Other trends with the mobile devices include larger displays, faster proces- sors, 4G connectivity and slimmer bod- ies. Another aspect is the ever improv- ing resolution of the built-in cameras: Two thirds of the smartphones sold have a resolution of 5 MP and more, half of which have more than 8 MP.Against this background, Heribert Tip- penhauer, Global Director Photo Office Stationery Consumer Choices at GfK Retail and Technology, looked at the effects of this development for the cam- era market. Less than 10 percent of the 8 billion image capturing devices sold worldwide in the last five years are cameras.
In a consumer study in which 2,365 smartphone owners in Germany and the UK were questioned, GfK obtained some interesting data on consumer be- havior: While the vast majority of smart- phone owners use a camera when they want to record important memories such as travel trips, family events etc., for spontaneous snapshots they nor- mally turn to their mobile device. In fact, 41 percent of the consumers questioned take at least one photo a day with their
smartphone (UK: 34 percent, Germany: 47 percent). In contrast, only 6 percent said they use their camera every day. A thought-provoking aspect is what the GfK found in its study regarding the photographic knowledge of those questioned. 55 percent said that, for them, the most important quality feature in a camera was the number of pixels, and 16 percent said the zoom factor. The quality of the lens (3 percent) and size of the sensor (2 percent) thus play virtually no role in buying decisions. The intention to buy a digital camera among the smartphone owners ques- tioned in the survey is surprisingly strong: Indeed, 27 percent said they intend to buy a camera within the next twelve months – above all because of the better picture quality. 20 percent said the reason for buying a camerawas to learn more about photography. Among the 16 to 24-year age group, this figure was as high as 35 percent. This begs the question of how this desire for learning could be satisfied. The majority of smartphone owners who do not intend to buy a camera said they were satisfied with their present camera. For half the 16–24- year olds, buying a new camera is quite simply too expensive. With regard
to those contemplating buying a new camera, nearly two thirds of smart- phone owners have their eyes on a system camera, which the GfK sees as good news for the imaging segment. Although Tippenhauer anticipates a total global volume of only 97 million cameras for 2013 (down 16 percent), the figure will include 17 million single-lens reflex models (up 13 percent) and 5 million compact system cameras (up 25
percent). Premium-class compact cam- eras with a large sensor or high zoom factor are also growing, according to GfK‘s statistics: A total of 16 million is expected for 2013 (up 23 percent) and 19 million (up 19 percent) for 2014. Whereas average prices in the grow- ing segments are continuing to rise, the lower compact camera segment of the market with a predicted sales volume of 60 million pieces in 2013 (down 28.5 percent) and 47 million in 2014 (down 22 percent) is fading into insignifi- cance.
he “Apple Effect” showed that it is quite simply more fun to use an iPhone (or another smartphone). “It is not the smartphones that are the monsters; the monster is our relationship to the con- sumer,” said Hilbig. In order to really reach the customers, the industry must opt for emotions instead of technology; ease of operation was more important than complicated patents and exclusive customer loyalty programs. The big trade associations such as CIPA, PMA and the German Photo Industry Asso- ciation must now act to re-kindle con- sumers‘ enthusiasm for taking pictures with cameras, emphasized Hilbig.
 
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One reason for slumping camera sales is that those that Canon/Nikon have created such good dslr's that most people who've bought them these last few years are perfectly happy with them and see no need for replacement.

Remember, in the film era people would own cameras for years. It's only in the digital age that it has become common for camera manufacturers to constantly update their models, usually at least once per year, and to have this pressure upon them to get consumers to always upgrade.

The problem is not the technology; cameras are better than ever. The camera companies need to band together and create a massive marketing campaign to sell people on the idea of having a more serious and separate camera than their smartphone. That would lift all boats.
 
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JimKarczewski said:
There wouldn't be such a drop in lens shipments if some of they lenses didn't cost as much as a car. Sorry, but $12k for the 200-400 is way out of my budget at this time. Same with Canon "adjusting their prices to match the market" So the 400 just became history unless I pick one up used.


Exactly. Can we get something that's more than $300 but less than $10,000?
 
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Jan 21, 2011
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dilbert said:
What happened? Market saturation.

Along with those that are already established not seeing anything in new products (from 2012 - 2013) as being worthwhile upgrades.

Coupled with maturing technology. Not too long ago, nobody had digital cameras. Somewhere between 2004 and 2009 (give or take a few years) the technology reached the right level of affordability and maturity that:
[list type=decimal]
[*]Just about everyone could afford a digital camera
[*]early adopters were starting to replace cameras less frequently
[/list]

What is now coupled with that is the fact that a lot of low-end users are abandoning P&S cameras in favour of phones.

Add to this the fact that the D800, D4, 1Dx and 5DIII all effectively hit the market in 2012 - making it a bumper year for high-end DSLR sales.

The years from 2009 to 2012 probably should be seen as abnormally good for sales.
 
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100

Nov 9, 2013
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Canon Rumors said:
Until people in the United States show they’re willing to spend on these systems, I don’t think we’ll see a huge advancement in technology or products.

The America’s (as in 2 continents) have a combined market share of 29% so the US share will probably be below 20%.
If the other 80+% are willing to spend money on these systems the US share is basically irrelevant for “advancement in technology”.
Emerging markets like China and India will become far more important if they keep on growing.
The US population is about 317 million (little over 4% of the world population)
China: 1,360 million (19%)
India: 1,241 million (17%)

It will take a view more years, but to me it seems inevitable that Asia will become the only dominant economic superpower and future advancements in technology and products will be based on the wants and needs of those markets and not on the US or Europe.
 
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unfocused

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100 said:
It will take a few more years, but to me it seems inevitable that Asia will become the only dominant economic superpower and future advancements in technology and products will be based on the wants and needs of those markets and not on the US or Europe.

However, worldwide cultural homogenization means that the distinctive wants and needs of markets will become less and less relevant. Asian consumers may someday dominate the world economy, but if they share the same taste in clothes, movies, songs, food, etc., as their western counterparts, it's not really going to matter all that much.
 
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thedman said:
JimKarczewski said:
There wouldn't be such a drop in lens shipments if some of they lenses didn't cost as much as a car. Sorry, but $12k for the 200-400 is way out of my budget at this time. Same with Canon "adjusting their prices to match the market" So the 400 just became history unless I pick one up used.


Exactly. Can we get something that's more than $300 but less than $10,000?

I am waiting on a couple too (a better UWA, a new 400 5.6 with IS, a better 50 1.4) but there are lots of good options available now: 24 2.8 IS, 28 2.8 IS, 35 f/2 IS, 100 2.8 macro IS, the 24-70 lenses, 70 - 200 2.8 IS, the Tamron 150 - 600 , etc etc
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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100 said:
The America’s (as in 2 continents) have a combined market share of 29% so the US share will probably be below 20%.
If the other 80+% are willing to spend money on these systems the US share is basically irrelevant for “advancement in technology”.
Emerging markets like China and India will become far more important if they keep on growing.
The US population is about 317 million (little over 4% of the world population)
China: 1,360 million (19%)
India: 1,241 million (17%)

What are the respective GDPs and per capita incomes of those countries? What does that mean in terms of purchasing power for 'luxury goods'? Population growth isn't everything. Using some of your numbers, 5% of the population is buying 29% of the world's cameras. Also, I would guess the US accounts for ~25% of the market - by stating the US population of 4.44% as a 'little over 4%', your rounding error is almost the population of Canada.
 
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We have conducted market research and used recognised market research companies as someone else has pointed out in China, India, Brazil, Russia etc. the public are buying broadly and I use that term losely the same well respected brands and that includes photographic goods. The luxury end of the market in % terms is small the main market for high end cameras is middle class males typically between 35-60 years old. The female market starts younger but is much smaller and outside of the US is gravitating to CSC cameras. Asia as a % of global sales has increased the most since 2007 but thats not just China.
The sales of the products we make are tied to the fortunes of DSLRs and CSCs and are only a small % of those overall sales i.e. targeted mainly at keen hobby & club photographers as well as professional and this segment "know exactly" what they want.
The issue longer term is how do manufacturers keep the interest of this group as moores law catches up with improvements that may only be incremental and not enough to spend $ 2245 on a new camera.
 
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Etienne said:
thedman said:
JimKarczewski said:
There wouldn't be such a drop in lens shipments if some of they lenses didn't cost as much as a car. Sorry, but $12k for the 200-400 is way out of my budget at this time. Same with Canon "adjusting their prices to match the market" So the 400 just became history unless I pick one up used.


Exactly. Can we get something that's more than $300 but less than $10,000?

I am waiting on a couple too (a better UWA, a new 400 5.6 with IS, a better 50 1.4) but there are lots of good options available now: 24 2.8 IS, 28 2.8 IS, 35 f/2 IS, 100 2.8 macro IS, the 24-70 lenses, 70 - 200 2.8 IS, the Tamron 150 - 600 , etc etc

I have the range I want now, I just want better. I've been way patient waiting for long-overdue updates to the not quite spectacular 17-40 and 100-400 lenses. A solid 14-24 would be fantastic.
 
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100

Nov 9, 2013
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unfocused said:
100 said:
It will take a few more years, but to me it seems inevitable that Asia will become the only dominant economic superpower and future advancements in technology and products will be based on the wants and needs of those markets and not on the US or Europe.

However, worldwide cultural homogenization means that the distinctive wants and needs of markets will become less and less relevant. Asian consumers may someday dominate the world economy, but if they share the same taste in clothes, movies, songs, food, etc., as their western counterparts, it's not really going to matter all that much.

True, but trends have to start somewhere. Today the western world is still dominant but with the shift of economic power that may change as well. Our wants, needs and taste are mostly created by companies these days.
 
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100

Nov 9, 2013
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neuroanatomist said:
100 said:
The America’s (as in 2 continents) have a combined market share of 29% so the US share will probably be below 20%.
If the other 80+% are willing to spend money on these systems the US share is basically irrelevant for “advancement in technology”.
Emerging markets like China and India will become far more important if they keep on growing.
The US population is about 317 million (little over 4% of the world population)
China: 1,360 million (19%)
India: 1,241 million (17%)

What are the respective GDPs and per capita incomes of those countries? What does that mean in terms of purchasing power for 'luxury goods'? Population growth isn't everything.

I know population growth isn’t everything, but if you look at the way things have developed over the last decade or so the economic power is shifting from the west to the east and I don’t see that changing much in the next decade.
The Economist predicts China will overtake the US in 2019
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/11/chinese-and-american-gdp-forecasts

neuroanatomist said:
Using some of your numbers, 5% of the population is buying 29% of the world's cameras. Also, I would guess the US accounts for ~25% of the market - by stating the US population of 4.44% as a 'little over 4%', your rounding error is almost the population of Canada.

Talking about rounding errors…
The America’s have a combined population of about 954 million. That’s not 5% but 12% so your rounding error is about 14 times the population of Canada, or the combined population of the US and Mexico.

Anyway, the point I tried to make is that 70%-80% of the market have a bigger influence on product development than 20-30% and that it's kind of arrogant to think that US-buyers will determine the direction of future development of Asian companies like Canon and Nikon.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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100 said:
Anyway, the point I tried to make is that 70%-80% of the market have a bigger influence on product development than 20-30% and that it's kind of arrogant to think that US-buyers will determine the direction of future development of Asian companies like Canon and Nikon.

Not necessarily US, but 'Western' comprises the Americas and Europe, a combined market larger than Asia (at least for now). The EOS M2 wasn't released in Europe or the US.
 
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