What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2013?

[Loswr]

Well, if Canon or Nikon actually came out with a FF mirrorless it would sell.

Based on your opinion? : The APS-C and smaller sensor market is much larger than the FF market, and Canon and Nikon both came out with MILCs in that arena…neither of which have sold very well at all (outside of Japan). If Canon and Nikon thought that a FF mirrorless would sell well, they'd have one on the market already. They don't, so clearly their opinion differs from yours…and I know who's more likely to be correct.

Just look at Sony's A7. It's selling very well. The demand is high.

Based on what evidence?

The a7 is #1,113 on Amazon's Camera & Photo list right now. The a7R is doing better, it's #619. Both of those are really high on the list, right? No, they're not.

The Canon 5DIII is at #269, the 6D is at #191, and the best-selling dSLR, the T3i, is at #7 on that list (behind the GoPro3 and a $60 Canon P&S, the other 4 items are accessories).

 

[HurtinMinorKey]

IDC is such a joke.

 

[mackguyver]

What happened is that the size/weight issue of DSLRs is overrated.

Cameras just can't go more portable than cell phones.

And mirrorless is the wrong solution to the problem of DSLRs being too large and heavy. It turns out that users of DSLRs do not mind DSLRs being large and heavy, as long as there is a mature lens system, and the manufacturer being able to reduce the weight just a little bit.

Not quite true ... a lot of people want smaller and lighter, but they (me included) don't want to give up ergonomics or performance.

I have to agree with yeahyoung on this one. I just don't see the "middle size" camera value proposition. It's not (comfortably) pocketable like a phone, and it's generally a compromise in terms of IQ and other factors. I have two cameras in this segment (a Panasonic Lumix LX-5 and a the EOS-M). While both are nice for events and places where I either can't take a DSLR (concerts) or don't want to attract a lot of attention (banquets and other events), they are my least used cameras.

If the camera doesn't fit in my pocket, why compromise? Why not take my DSLR and get awesome photos? It might be heavy and large, but so is anything other than my smartphone. That's my (and apparently most Americans') logic.

 

[atkinsr]

To me, this isn't so much about innovation as it is price and company focus.

I am, as I expect most DSLR owners are, a hobbyist. A serious hobbyist, but a hobbyist none-the-less and I'm not rich. I own a Pentax, which I am pretty happy with. I've been wanting to make the switch to Canon FF for about a year for several reasons (resale, used market lens availability, etc.). I have not purchased anything for my current platform since I made this decision. Having watched this site and others, studying every review I can get my hands on, watching sales and Canon's own actions, several things have become abundantly clear to me:

I have to buy a 5DIII, I actually lose functionality over my $450 K-30 by spending $2k on a 6D (to me, the crop sensor 70D is a much better buy than the 6D, even though I don't shoot video).

To do what I need to do, I need a few quality lenses and a flash. Let's price this out (rough estimates):
5DIII: $2800
600EX-RT: $450
Sigma 1.4 EX DG HSM: $500
Tamron SP 24-70 2.8 Di VC: $1300
Tamron SP 70-200 2.8 DI VC $1500

So, for just the basics, we are looking at somewhere around $6600. As a hobbyist, that's a ton of money. That's a used motorcycle, a carefully-budgeted 3-4 week dream vacation around the world, or if invested now, retiring a year early. That's asking a lot from the general (non-money-making) population.

Let's say I'm willing to do it. Should I? Well, to answer that, I look at the company, it's focus, and it's competition:
- On a technical level (dxo mark scores, etc.) Nikon is currently kicking the crap out of Canon. Because some of my "work" is astrophotography and Nikon does some noise reduction (which also wipes faint stars) prior to writing the RAW file, Nikon is not an option for me. I also realize that this is a leapfrog game, with "who's best" changing year-to-year. Canon is behind right now, are they focused on fixing this?
The 5DIII is over 2 years old but their focus has been on everything except FF: Compact updates, mirrorless cameras, and for some reason, updating many of their best/favorite lenses instead of improving the lower end ones. Outside of the Rebel line, the only rumors I've seen of an updated DSLR are for a crop sensor; the 7DII. Those rumors have been going on for at least 5 months with every rumor suggesting a release the following month, and then a delay.

So, it boils down to this:

Am I willing to scrimp, save, and spend the money? Yes, but I think it's way too much money.
But, do I really want to spend the better part of a year's discretionary income on a FF camera body that is nearly outdated for a platform from a company whose focus seems to be everywhere except non-consumer camera bodies?

Not a chance.

-R

 

[ajfotofilmagem]

It's funny to hear that Sony A7r is selling very well. Very well, compared to what? Full frame mirroless can be the dream of some people in this forum, but this represents a small share of the market. Please, let's stop this idea that mirrorless will kill DSLR because it is small, light, cheap (beached M), and as good as. Being small brings disadvantages of ergonomics and performance that users 7D, 6D, 1D are not willing to accept.

I would like a mirrorless size of SL1 (for travel), but would have to be compatible with EF-S lenses to seduce me. I also like to have a mirrorless size 6D (Studio), but would have to be compatible with EF lenses, otherwise I do not care.

 

[lloyd709]

It wasn't rocket science that the market was going to fall around now. It's due to the fact that there was a massive surge on the back of digital cameras coming out. Most people that wanted one (including all those that just have to have new technology) bought one (or two). Now the market is maturing and new versions of chips aren't game changers anymore it's getting back to the old 'a camera is a camera is a camera'. Combine that with the rapid improvement of mobile phone cameras, bonanza time for the big camera companies is over (me thinks) - just like it will be over shortly for the tablet companies (a tablet is a tablet is a tablet).

 

[lw]

looking at the numbers on the Mirrorless market, it is a mystery to me why Canon excluded America and Europe when the M2 was released to the market.

Because they have/had vast inventories of M that they want to shift first.
They are only selling them because they have significantly reduced the price and probably making little profit on them.

The M2 isn't a significant enough improvement that the market would be willing to pay a higher price.

Ergo, the US and EU probably calculate they are better off financially focusing on getting rid of their existing Ms first and not introducing the M2 to only have it kill what M sales are left, and to only have to sell the M2 at yet another fire sale price to shift any units.

But I would be surprised that if M inventories do run out they would not put the M2 on sale if the M3 hasn't arrived by then.

 

[cm71td]

If the camera doesn't fit in my pocket, why compromise? Why not take my DSLR and get awesome photos? It might be heavy and large, but so is anything other than my smartphone. That's my (and apparently most Americans') logic.

+1 I had two different mirrorless cameras. Although great cameras and smaller than my DSLR, I still used a DSLR when the picture really mattered. If I want to travel light, I take my wife's Sony RX100 which fits in my pocket.

 

[apmadoc]

For many consumers, they want a snapshot that is "good enough". The reality is that some of the most recent phones create very good images. If you've seen the documentary "Searching for Sugar Man" the interviews to me seemed very professional. Later I learned that all the interviews were done with an iPhone 4.

To me the part of the business that would be most affected would be the entry level point and shoot cameras.

Some Canon quotes of late makes you wonder if they are going to concede that part of the market.

If I was in charge at Canon, I'd be questioning the return on R&D dollars spent. If they stop spending $20M on the point and shoot low end cameras, and then move that money into high end point and shoots and DSLR's, would that generate a better return on investment?

Certainly there are a lot of older Canon lenses that could use an update. When you look at the difference between the 24-70 original and the new version, it's strikingly better.

Then there's the camera bodies - rumors of a 50MP sensor, etc.

I've been a photographer for over 40 years. When I'm doing serious work, I have a 5D MIII. When I'm traveling for work and want to travel light I have a G1X. I have an iPhone 5 and yes I do snaps with it at gatherings when I don't have any other camera and yes, it does produce a photo that is "good enough"

 

[gary]

Cell phones have already taken the young would be point and shoot photographers and as old people like me get more accustomed to cell phone photography. Point and shoot has all but gone and will be a dead market in 5 years. In my view mirrorless would have been the go too camera but for the cell phone, if I want true portability why bother with mirrorless.

The cell phone gives the majority of people what they want in a small easily portable multi-functional tool. DSLR is becoming and will ultimately become a niche market for pro's or very serious hobbyists, and companies will restructure their line up accordingly and their R&D budget. For canon that has already started with hi-end step into moving pictures.

 

[jeffa4444]

Im not seeing the CIPA data quite as bad as its being painted. The drop in value terms is much smaller overall between DSLRs and CSCs its down 9.9% with the bigger drop in DSLRs, the CIPA figures also seem to indicate a 16% not 19% drop and there is a difference between manufactured and shipped in the data. GfK in a seperate report highlighted that higher end full-frame DSLRs were actually up 26% and these products even discounted retain a higher profit margin. Its no surprise then that Sony brought out the A7/R, Olympus the OM-D E-M1 or than Fuji brought out X-T1all cameras at the higher end of the market.
GfK state the average selling price to be $ 2,250 and that these buyers tend to spend more on accessories. It should also be noted 2012 was a Olympic year and as in the case of the Olympics in China sales of cameras spike during these type of larger event years.
GfK also state that at the height of analogue the peak was 70M cameras and whilst it appears Digital has peaked the figure should include smart cell phones not shown in the CIPA figures to give a balanced view of image taking devices.

 

[bereninga]

I see different information in this than what people are talking about.
DSLRs: If you look at the growth curve over several years, the DSLR sales continue to grow. 2013 only looks bad if you compare the numbers with 2012. The 2013 numbers are still higher than 2011.

In 2012 many new models DSLR models were released that were significantly upgrades (1DX, 5D III, 6D, D4, D800, D600). By contrast, in 2013 we got the 70D, D610, and Df. I'm amazed the numbers dropped as little as they did from 2012 to 2013.

Mirrorless: The 2013 mirrorless numbers are low given the number of great new mirrorless models introduced in 2013. If you listen to the "mirrorless hype", you'd think the growth would be more explosive. I suspect that for now, most mirrorless cameras sales (other than Japan) are second cameras for people who also own a DSLR.

Compact Cameras: Are dying as expected. People who don't care about image quality are just using their phones.

+1

I think Canon needs to really focus (no pun intended) on its lenses. They've acted too slow to compete with Sigma's 35mm and soon-to-come 50mm. The 50mm and 85mm lenses in Canon's lineup are so old and obviously there's a demand for their upgrade.

 

[distant.star]

.
Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.

I don't own stock in any imaging company, and my only concern is how well they are able to meet my needs as a photographer.

So far, Canon has succeeded. In 2010, I bought their T2i, and it still gives me good results. In 2012, I bought their 5D3, and that does everything the T2i can't. Sigma is supplying fine quality lenses at reasonable (comparatively) prices, and I'm buying them.

All companies and industries have their ups and downs. Apparently, the imaging industry picked up a great wave a few years ago, and now that ride is over. Like good surfers, they'll sit on their boards in the lull and watch for the next big one. Some will get tired of waiting; they'll go home. The serious ones will be there to ride the next big wave. And unfortunately, there will always be the gaggle of gossipers on the beach with nothing better to do than whine about what was or was not or what might have been or could have been or was or will be -- and they'll keep building their sand castles and have the tides relentlessly knock them down.

Meanwhile, I'll go on doing what I'm really interested in -- taking/making pictures. If a company comes up with anything that better satisfies my needs in the future, they'll get my dollars. Beyond that, I really don't care about the whys and wherefores of their sales volumes or units shipped or profitability. There will always be enough of us who care about pictures to support manufacturers that supply what we need.

 

[unfocused]

What happened? Market saturation.

What happened to the Photography Industry? The Economy is what happened to the Photography Industry.

... people were moving from film to digital, and that helped sales. Now that the market has reached maturity, it's only natural sales would slow down, and smartphones & the economy just help to roll sales down the hill.

What happened is that the size/weight issue of DSLRs is overrated.

Cameras just can't go more portable than cell phones.

And mirrorless is the wrong solution to the problem of DSLRs being too large and heavy.

These quotes sum it all up.

We are returning to the historic levels of enthusiast and professional camera sales and development. People act like the past decade has been normal, but it hasn't been – far from it.

Normal was the long period from about 1980 to 2000, when the SLR market saw a similar re-alignment after the boom of the 1960s and 70s when every hobbyist bought a Pentax. Canon and Nikon weathered that long period, they consolidated the market and grew to dominance pushing out or marginalizing Pentax, Mamiya, Konica, and all the others.

I would suggest that both companies have the experience and wherewithal to survive and prosper as the market slows. I'm not so sure about the others, although Fuji showed remarkable resilience adapting as the market for their core product evaporated.

If we are honest about it, the current Canon and Nikon full frame offerings could easily last another 5-10 years with only minor improvements. APS-C cameras might need another generation before they are in a similar position, but it is definitely coming. (See some of Thom Hogan's excellent columns on the "last camera.")

Only time will tell if mirrorless is the wave of the future but if today's trends are any indication, it's not looking too likely.

 

[jrbdmb]

Well, if Canon or Nikon actually came out with a FF mirrorless it would sell. But they haven't, so it doesn't. Meanwhile, Sony has stepped up big time to fill that need, and it's paying off. Canon & Nikon seem too scared to make a move. The demand is there. Just look at Sony's A7. It's selling very well. The demand is high.

Sure the A7 / A7R is a popular camera among the photo-geek crowd here, but is it really making inroads into the mainstream? Unless they can price it to compete with Rebels I don't think it will ever catch on.

 

[JumboShrimp]

I may be in the minority here, but I am just not interested in mirrorless anything.

 

[thedman]

"lenses are still a safer bet for a return", yet I've been waiting for Canon to kick out some high end lenses (100-400 replacement, high-end wide angle, etc) and have gotten nothing. And here we are already in March of what this site dubbed "the year of the lens"... has Canon released a lens yet? Something besides a new kit-level consumer zoom?

 

[dstppy]

I agree with the bulk of the comments, but let's not forget something else about the 'plateau':
We're on a plateau of REALLY good cameras.

When canon started adding IS on their PowerShot cameras, that was a leap lightyears ahead. The trickle-down from all of the great high end cameras to consumer grade (or at least consumer priced) bodies/all-in-ones has been consistent.

Anecdotal proof: my grandmother has finally stopped cutting people's heads off when she takes a picture.

The 5DmkII was a rousing success the MK3 was only a shock to sticker and that's coming down . . . seriously, yes, there's market saturation . . . but it's saturation of really good tech.

Okay, feel free to ignore me now

 

[9VIII]

Umm, that "infographic" thing has just a little bit of an agenda.

1. Consider all the cameras that are shipping on cell phones now. Apparently management at Canon perceives this as an overall expansion of the camera industry, that being a good thing and not the end of the world.

2. There seems to be a heavy focus on "mirrorless" systems for some reason. Canon's SLR sales have remained fairly steady. A slight drop last year, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Until people in the United States show they’re willing to spend on these systems, I don’t think we’ll see a huge advancement in technology or products.

I see the problem here as Mirrorless manufacturers pricing themselves out of a market. The Fuji X-E2 should be competing with Rebels, not the 6D (ETA: Looks like I was seeing the price of the X-E2 with a $500 kit lens, but I guess that doesn't actually change a whole lot), and the T-1 should compete head to head with the 70D. As-is the value proposition for those cameras is horrible. I like them, but they need a massive price drop. If that's actually not possible then I guess we've found the biggest flaw in Mirrorless system cameras.

 

[unfocused]

I agree with the bulk of the comments, but let's not forget something else about the 'plateau':
We're on a plateau of REALLY good cameras...

...Okay, feel free to ignore me now

Ignore you? But you are exactly right.