What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2017 Infographic

[Canon Rumors Guy]

Every year for the last 5 years, LensVid has released their infographic and report showing the state of the camera industry. You can now check out their <a href="https://lensvid.com/gear/happened-photography-industry-2017/">report and infographic for 2017</a>.</p>
<p>Click the image above for a larger view.</p>
<p>The information is based on the <a href="http://www.canonrumors.com/the-final-camera-shipment-numbers-for-2017-are-in/">CIPA report for 2017</a> released earlier this month.</p>
<p>A look back at previous LensVid reports on the camera industry:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://lensvid.com/gear/lensvid-exclusive-what-happened-to-the-photography-industry-in-2013/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2013?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://lensvid.com/gear/lensvid-exclusive-happened-photography-industry-2014/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2014?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://lensvid.com/gear/lensvid-exclusive-what-happened-to-the-photography-industry-in-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2015?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://lensvid.com/gear/lensvid-exclusive-happened-photography-industry-2016/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2016?</a></li>
</ul>

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				2013
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				2014
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				2015
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				2016
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[ahsanford]

So the question becomes: how much mirrorless penetration must there be before the big two SLR makers (Canon/Nikon) make the historic move to release their next Rebel / D5X00 cameras without a mirror?

I'm not talking about selling a Rebel SLR and M(whatever) side by side, I'm talking about a Rebel update happens and this time there is no mirrored version. How far are we away from that? 1 generation? 2? 3?

- A

 

[neuroanatomist]

I'm talking about a Rebel update happens and this time there is no mirrored version. How far are we away from that? 1 generation? 2? 3?

The ILC market was 65% dSLRs in 2017, only 35% MILCs. I’d say we’re at least as far away from that as however long it takes for that ratio to flip.

 

[Canon Rumors Guy]

There is also no data on how many people use a mirrorless ILC as their main camera vs people that have a mirrorless system to backup their DSLRs.

I think if you removed the people who use DSLRs as a primary with a mirrorless backup, mirrorless penetration is likely halved.

 

[Talys]

There is danger in the interpretation of these numbers. Some things to consider:

1. Mirrorless didn't really increase substantially until this year. Is it an anomaly or a trend? On the other hand, DSLRs HAVE decreased substantially every year. It's safe to call that a trend.

2. But the WHY of #1 is important. Are people buying mirrorless because it is a superior tool? Or is it because their DSLR does everything they need it to, and they don't want to buy another one? For 95% of my photography, a 5D Mark II, 6D Mark 1, or 60D or even older would work perfectly fine.

3. There are people who own both mirrorless and DSLRs. I think, lots of enthusiasts. What is the ratio of usage of mirrorless and DSLR for people who own both?

4. Will Mirrorless plateau, and eventually, decrease, as the technology matures, and successive generations cease to provide meaningful benefits?

5. What is the breakdown of interchangeable LENSES sold, mirrorless-only lenses, and native DSLR mounts? I think this would be more reflective of the future of the marketplace.

 

[[email protected]]

Good comments. One other observation:

The increase in cameras shipped back in the early part of the decade was in part due to a very rapid and massive technological shift, where people were buying cameras every 2 years sometimes, as the new digital technology produced very significant upgrade bumps.

I see similarity to that now in the mirrorless segment. Not so much that massive additional functionality is being presented each time (although it's significant), but rather that the products are iterating very quickly. I venture to guess that the average A7R2 owner is several times more likely to upgrade to the A7R3 than the 5D3 owner was likely to upgrade to the 5D4, as the mirrorless side has a lot more developing going on. Maybe that example is too high end, but same would be true for the Fuji crops, etc. There is a higher likelihood to upgrade, as well as a much faster upgrade cycle going on in mirrorless (including in CanonWorld).

Separate point:
Looking at the deeper trend, I think that the lower end mirrorless bodies are likely to be the ones most apt to suffer camera phone cannibalization (same is true for low end DSLRs).

Final point:
I don't think that us mirrorslapper drivers dislike the idea of mirrorless. To me it's just plumbing. I suspect there is a big cost driver encouraging the retirement of mirrors, and that'll really toll once you see EVFs being both good and very cheap. So in answer to the earlier question about when Canon/Nikon release a mirrorless-only version of its existing line.... The model whose design starts immediately after the introduction of a lagless EVF. Since they're not quite good enough now (close), they'll likely be good enough and cheap enough in 3 cycles+, as the design times are long with these large companies - longer than the replacement cycles themselves.

 

[Richard CR]

I see similarity to that now in the mirrorless segment. Not so much that massive additional functionality is being presented each time (although it's significant), but rather that the products are iterating very quickly.

There's alot of this.

also mathematically a segment of the industry which is gaining companies versus another which is basically losing companies producing articles, should have a shift.

Some of 2017 gains can be attributed to the earthquake, but it's more 2016 was so poor overall in terms of camera shipments for mirrorless (sans Canon) and DSLR's (sans Canon again).

2017 as was 2016 are both really awkward years to try and make any predictions based upon. Both of them were affected by Sony's sensor fab disruption. Both Panasonic and Olympus (and I believe Fuji as well) postponed major product announcements from 2016 and put them into 2017. That would have caused, shipment wise, too much of a gain in 2017 because some of those units would have shipped in 2016 in a normal year. So while 2017 was breathtaking if you are mirrorless fan, some of that just may not be there in 2018, some of that rate of increase is because of earthquake. The total number of mirrorless shipped is probably pretty close though, with the exception of the 1st quarter amounts.

Of course we'll get a better picture starting in 15 days

As far as the rebels and such moving over because of mirrorless gains - I think is backward thinking (not you, but a prior post)

Canon or Nikon (or both) will move to mirrorless to save assembly, alignment, manufacturing and warranty costs when they feel they have credible cameras for that segment, and the segment isn't put off by having an EVF. Even then I would imagine that Canon will implement more of a "let the better camera win" by running mirrorless and DSLR's side by side competing against each other, than they would simply vanishing the highly successful DSLR lineup.

It's really only been this current generation of Canon cameras where you could really say they have all the pieces (DPAF across all cameras, DIGIC 7 for processing). Nikon supposedly has all the pieces now as well, but time will tell on that.

 

[mppix]

The "Camera Market Overview" graphic is misrepresenting its own numbers
- 52% in 2016 is more than "half"
- The 2016 numbers don't sum up to 100% (but probably due to rounding)
- 30% in 2017 appears to be smaller than 28% in 2015
- 16.4% mirrorless share in 2017 appears to be similar than the 30% DSLR share

At best, the intern that did the graphic did not know better but this should have been caught. Lensvid is over-representing (visually) the importance of mirrorless in this overview and under-representing the importance of non-interchangeable cameras.

This is unfortunate because the mirorless vs DSLR discussion is already heated enough. The few solid numbers that we have should not be manipulated.

 

[old-pr-pix]

2. But the WHY of #1 is important. Are people buying mirrorless because it is a superior tool? Or is it because their DSLR does everything they need it to, and they don't want to buy another one? For 95% of my photography, a 5D Mark II, 6D Mark 1, or 60D or even older would work perfectly fine.

3. There are people who own both mirrorless and DSLRs. I think, lots of enthusiasts. What is the ratio of usage of mirrorless and DSLR for people who own both? ...

I can only speak for myself... I originally bought ML (m43) instead of getting a 7D as a small, light 2nd back-up body. Plan was to only have one lens for it. I felt it would be good enough for much of what I do. (Non-profit stuff that goes into newsletters, flyers, web pages, etc. I also evaluated original Canon M - it wasn't good enough - AF was horrible.)

Quickly I found I enjoyed using the ML more than expected. Added a second ML body (less EVF lag), got battery grips for both bodies, upgraded to full complement of PRO series lenses, and now use mirrorless probably 75% of the time. Lighter, much smaller lenses for equal focal length & f-stop (I know, not the same DOF), fit in smaller bags and honestly can do 95% of what I do. In reality though, most of the size/weight savings are due to smaller sensor, not ML vs. dSLR. For me, given the current state of ML development, it really is a toss-up with dSLR's. Either get the job done.

I still like my dSLR Canon gear and L lenses. I'm hoping Canon will bring us some exciting stuff before I wear-out existing and need to replace.

 

[ahsanford]

I'm talking about a Rebel update happens and this time there is no mirrored version. How far are we away from that? 1 generation? 2? 3?

The ILC market was 65% dSLRs in 2017, only 35% MILCs. I’d say we’re at least as far away from that as however long it takes for that ratio to flip.

Hence my question: can that ratio flip if CaNikon stick with mirrors in their high volume Rebel / D5X00 lines? One might argue that ratio can't realistically get past 50-50 until either those two lines abandon their mirrors or (in Canon's case) the EOS M line is dramatically discounted vs. a same-spec'd SLR -- which they clearly won't do.

So I contend the market won't truly transform from mirrors to mirrorless until the bosses of the SLR world say that it's time and put their crop high volume mirrors out to pasture.

- A

 

[Talys]

I'm talking about a Rebel update happens and this time there is no mirrored version. How far are we away from that? 1 generation? 2? 3?

The ILC market was 65% dSLRs in 2017, only 35% MILCs. I’d say we’re at least as far away from that as however long it takes for that ratio to flip.

Hence my question: can that ratio flip if CaNikon stick with mirrors in their high volume Rebel / D5X00 lines? One might argue that ratio can't realistically get past 50-50 until either those two lines abandon their mirrors or (in Canon's case) the EOS M line is dramatically discounted vs. a same-spec'd SLR -- which they clearly won't do.

So I contend the market won't truly transform from mirrors to mirrorless until the bosses of the SLR world say that it's time and put their crop high volume mirrors out to pasture.

- A

But why would they do that?

Entry level DSLRs will keep some people -- who want cheap DSLRs -- from considering mirrorless competitors. And, Canon/Nikon are tooled up to produce DSLRs so efficiently that they have effectively created a duopoly. That's actually a really good place to be.

The only reason I can imagine to kill DSLRs is because (a) MILCs are just way more profitable (I think this is unlikely to ever happen) or (b) because nobody wants to buy mirrorless cameras anymore.

And remember, there are still a lot of people who aren't really camera enthusiasts who have preconceptions of what a "real" camera should look like, and buy something like that to take better photos on their vacation. Or, they think that if they spend $600, they'll get National Geographic quality photos from their trip. The guy at the sales counter genuinely doesn't care what the customer buys, as long as they fork over some money. I've literally seen a sales person extol the virtues of mirrorless to customers who are interested in one, telling them that DSLRs are dead. Then go on and on about how DSLRs are vastly superior to the next customer and that mirrorless is just a fad.

 

[Rudeofus]

There is danger in the interpretation of these numbers. Some things to consider:
2. But the WHY of #1 is important. Are people buying mirrorless because it is a superior tool? Or is it because their DSLR does everything they need it to, and they don't want to buy another one? For 95% of my photography, a 5D Mark II, 6D Mark 1, or 60D or even older would work perfectly fine.

Several years ago many people didn't buy new cameras to achieve some specific photographic task, but as a status symbol (just read neuroanatomist's postings constantly writing about his white superteles), as something to be shown off ("Look at my new 5DII sooo much detail", "OMG my 100-400 L IS II is soooo uber sharp!" or whatever).

This is something I don't see anymore, nobody runs around showing off their 5DIV/1DX/77D with hyper swivel. People used to take snaps with their smart phones "I know it's crappy but sadly I forgot to bring my DSLR", now they use it almost defiantly "nope, I am not going to lug around 2 kg of camera equipment".

New DSLRs seem to have completely lost their magic with Joe/Jane Shmoe, and LensVid's numbers clearly show this.

 

[Mikehit]

There is danger in the interpretation of these numbers. Some things to consider:
2. But the WHY of #1 is important. Are people buying mirrorless because it is a superior tool? Or is it because their DSLR does everything they need it to, and they don't want to buy another one? For 95% of my photography, a 5D Mark II, 6D Mark 1, or 60D or even older would work perfectly fine.

Several years ago many people didn't buy new cameras to achieve some specific photographic task, but as a status symbol (just read neuroanatomist's postings constantly writing about his white superteles), as something to be shown off ("Look at my new 5DII sooo much detail", "OMG my 100-400 L IS II is soooo uber sharp!" or whatever).

This is something I don't see anymore, nobody runs around showing off their 5DIV/1DX/77D with hyper swivel. People used to take snaps with their smart phones "I know it's crappy but sadly I forgot to bring my DSLR", now they use it almost defiantly "nope, I am not going to lug around 2 kg of camera equipment".

New DSLRs seem to have completely lost their magic with Joe/Jane Shmoe, and LensVid's numbers clearly show this.

Smacks of envy to me - someone who can't afford the to gear and tries to rationalise other people being able to.

Several years ago many people didn't buy new cameras to achieve some specific photographic task, but as a status symbol

Why do you think this has changed? Has the introduction of mirrorless resulted in a sudden change of photographic gestalt from status symbols to wanting to take pictures?
Of course, we never hear mirrorless Sony owners crowing about their superior dynamic range and their instant focussing do we?

nobody runs around showing off their 5DIV/1DX/77D

I never saw anyone do that. Not even with a 77D (really??). I saw popoel paying top dollar for a camera to do a specific job, but of course if yo are happy with the picture of an eagle in flight taken with a 60D and 70-300 USM kit lens then I am genuinely happy for you.

New DSLRs seem to have completely lost their magic

Nope. It is because people now have a choice due to market diversity.

 

[neuroanatomist]

It used to be that people were jealous of those with better camera gear (just read Rudeofus' post whining about me having a white supertele), but now dSLRs have become so common that most people have moved on to being jealous of other things.

 

[exquisitor]

The "Camera Market Overview" graphic is misrepresenting its own numbers
- 52% in 2016 is more than "half"
- The 2016 numbers don't sum up to 100% (but probably due to rounding)
- 30% in 2017 appears to be smaller than 28% in 2015
- 16.4% mirrorless share in 2017 appears to be similar than the 30% DSLR share

At best, the intern that did the graphic did not know better but this should have been caught. Lensvid is over-representing (visually) the importance of mirrorless in this overview and under-representing the importance of non-interchangeable cameras.

This is unfortunate because the mirorless vs DSLR discussion is already heated enough. The few solid numbers that we have should not be manipulated.

I agree with you. But not only "Camera Market Overview" is flawed. Essentially every graph is misrepresenting the data.
Look at the "Amount of total cameras by year": note the difference between 2013 and 2015 and the difference between 2015 and 2016. 26 millions shift is smaller than 12 millions shift!
"Amount of interchangeable lenses by year": note years 2010 and 2014, both are at 22 millions, the column for 2014 is higher. What?!
"Number of cameras shipped in 2017 by region": "Others" segments in the graphs for cameras and lenses have 2 and 2.6 % respectively. But 2 % are represented larger than 2.6 %! "Europe" segment for lenses with 25 % is larger than "Americas" segment with 28 %.
Even the graph on the right with "Cameras manufactured between 2010 and 2017" with appropriate scale manages to manipulate the height of the columns slightly, so that DSLR is understated and mirrorless is exaggerated.

There are two possibilities: Lensvid made an incredibly sloppy job of representing the data or they manipulated the graphs on purpose. In both cases I would recommend rather to refer to the original CIPA data as this "representation" is very wrong.

 

[Talys]

Several years ago many people didn't buy new cameras to achieve some specific photographic task, but as a status symbol (just read neuroanatomist's postings constantly writing about his white superteles), as something to be shown off ("Look at my new 5DII sooo much detail", "OMG my 100-400 L IS II is soooo uber sharp!" or whatever).

This is something I don't see anymore, nobody runs around showing off their 5DIV/1DX/77D with hyper swivel. People used to take snaps with their smart phones "I know it's crappy but sadly I forgot to bring my DSLR", now they use it almost defiantly "nope, I am not going to lug around 2 kg of camera equipment".

New DSLRs seem to have completely lost their magic with Joe/Jane Shmoe, and LensVid's numbers clearly show this.

I surely hope that Canon and Nikon do not design their cameras around the type of person that you're describing.

Cameras should be designed around the needs of people who want to advance their photography; to create better images, do things previously difficult or impossible, or to make real tasks more convenient or efficient. Professional cameras shouldn't be consolation prizes for people who can't afford a nice house, supercar, Learjet, or whatever.

I will also point out that in most parts of the world, cameras are nearly the lamest status symbol I can imagine. Someone who isn't an enthusiast could care less about whether you had an A7R3 or a A7.

 

[Rudeofus]

Smacks of envy to me - someone who can't afford the to gear and tries to rationalise other people being able to.

You've got to be kidding me. In the grand scheme of things these white super teles are not that expensive, see what people spend on cars, motorcycles, houses/flats. In addition, these white lenses retain their value much better than most other status symbols, and rarely incur running costs like property tax, maintenance or fuel.

Owning one of these lenses is not a sign of wealth in my neck of the wood, it's just a sign, that you are inclined to spend your money on photographic items. For most folks, and this includes the photographically inclined ones here, a 500/600 F/4 is a solution desperately looking for a problem, that's why you won't see them often.

Why do you think this has changed? Has the introduction of mirrorless resulted in a sudden change of photographic gestalt from status symbols to wanting to take pictures?
Of course, we never hear mirrorless Sony owners crowing about their superior dynamic range and their instant focussing do we?

Photographic items went from "look at my gadget ZOMG I AM TEH COOLZ" to "I brought my cam along because it gives better quality images" all the way to "I am not lugging this weight around, my 5DIII remains at home and I'll bring my mirrorless".

Folks really don't give a crap anymore about dynamic range or AF speed. In my fotoclub, where 1Dx users rubbed against 5DIII users just a few years ago, now the same members bring in mirror less or Olympus DSLR cameras and go "oh so small!".

I never saw anyone do that. Not even with a 77D (really??). I saw popoel paying top dollar for a camera to do a specific job, but of course if yo are happy with the picture of an eagle in flight taken with a 60D and 70-300 USM kit lens then I am genuinely happy for you.

If only those bought a 5DII/III who needed it for their job, neither of us would be able to afford one. Selling the same design to 1.000 photographers who really need it and to 10.000.000 who just want it because it's cool - that's what makes these cameras and lenses affordable to everyone.

New DSLRs seem to have completely lost their magic with Joe/Jane Shmoe, and LensVid's numbers clearly show this.

I surely hope that Canon and Nikon do not design their cameras around the type of person that you're describing.

They absolutely have to, see my above comment. Economy of scales ...

Do you really believe, that there was an honest photographic need for 7.5 million dSLR cameras last year?

 

[Mikehit]

Smacks of envy to me - someone who can't afford the to gear and tries to rationalise other people being able to.

You've got to be kidding me. In the grand scheme of things these white super teles are not that expensive, see what people spend on cars, motorcycles, houses/flats. In addition, these white lenses retain their value much better than most other status symbols, and rarely incur running costs like property tax, maintenance or fuel.
....

Well now you have me confused because you said people buy big whites to brag

Several years ago many people didn't buy new cameras to achieve some specific photographic task, but as a status symbol (just read neuroanatomist's postings constantly writing about his white superteles), as something to be shown off ("Look at my new 5DII sooo much detail", "OMG my 100-400 L IS II is soooo uber sharp!" or whatever)

Now you seem to be agreeing they bought them to do a job. What exactly is your point?

 

[Rudeofus]

Well now you have me confused because you said people buy big whites to brag

They used to do this, but this trend is going down - as shown by Lensvid's charts.

Several years ago many people didn't buy new cameras to achieve some specific photographic task, but as a status symbol (just read neuroanatomist's postings constantly writing about his white superteles), as something to be shown off ("Look at my new 5DII sooo much detail", "OMG my 100-400 L IS II is soooo uber sharp!" or whatever)

Now you seem to be agreeing they bought them to do a job. What exactly is your point?
[/quote]
Those people, who buy photographic equipment to fill a photographic need, are a small minority, and these folks won't sustain the production numbers to keep prices where they are right now. Canon/Nikon/Sony can't sustain their business model (in the photography sector), if the "gotta have its" leave the market.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Well now you have me confused because you said people buy big whites to brag

They used to do this, but this trend is going down - as shown by Lensvid's charts.

Sorry, I must have missed where LensVid plotted the data for the big white lenses. Can you point that out on their graphic? And since their infographic is based on CIPA data, can you also point out the CIPA data on production/shipments of specific classes of lenses?

Or are you just talking out of your nether orifice?