Wow! I'm kind of surprised that this thread generated the interest that it did.
I figured I'd pose a question and see where it would lead. Some of the comments I found very interesting. One of the most interesting to me was from YoukY63:
I also one of the guys that say "never enough". The printing argument is irrelevant: I never print any photo. Instead, I watch them on my computer. And as I am doing landscape (day or night), sometime I enjoy to look at a very small detail of my picture. The more details I can get the happier I am.
That's an approach that I quite honestly never considered. Sure, I know most photographs these days never get printed either as a photographic print or "in print" but I never really thought about enjoying images in that way. Not sure what to think about it, but it is interesting.
Anyway, as far as the original post goes, I thought I might now, after reading so many good comments (and quite a few bad ones as well) put my opinion out there for everyone to pick apart.
I do think megapixel count will continue to increase. But, I think it will become less and less important to customers and the increases will become more incremental than revolutionary. Why do I say that? Not because of any slowdown in technology, but because I think there is a diminishing return on the benefits of higher pixel counts.
Going from 10 mp to 18 mp was a massive jump in resolution. I personally went from being fairly limited in the size of an image I could produce and in the amount of cropping that I could accept, to being able to print a full frame image bigger than I personally would ever want. In addition, I found I could crop an image when needed and even crop quite a bit when I was at the limit of my lens' reach and still have acceptable quality.
But, at the same time, I realize that I am routinely "throwing away" pixels because I don't need the image to be as large as the native size provided by an 18 mp sensor. Do I care, not really? Pixels are free, or at least so cheap as to be effectively free. But, am I willing to pay a premium to get even more pixels that I will be throwing away? Well, if they don't cost too much, I'd consider it because there will always be those times when I'd like to crop an image to compensate for not having a long-enough lens. Or, there may be a time when I want a poster-size print.
But, as I said, I'm only willing to "buy" more pixels if they are cheap, because I've got enough for most of my needs right now.
One the other hand, there may be hidden costs to more pixels that concern me. Will increased resolution reduce Canon's ability to offer higher ISO speeds, less noise and more dynamic range? Only the Canon engineers know for sure, but if that's the case, I'd rather have the latter, because, as I said, I've pretty much got as many pixels as I want right now. And, if those higher pixels mean I have to buy new lenses that cost even more, that's a major disincentive.
Now, while we'd all like to think we are "special," I suspect I'm actually a pretty typical consumer in the "prosumer" category. So, I imagine that Canon is surveying customers like me and deciding what they need to do to make the next generation of 7D a "must buy" camera.
I believe their market research will show that a higher megapixel count would have only a minor impact on moving 7D (or 60D or T3i) customers to a 7DII. And, even though I'd like to see only an incremental improvement in the 7DII (so I can skip a generation and wait for the 7DIII) Canon wants me to buy the 7DII, because they'd rather sell me a new camera every three years, instead of every six.
So, my guess is that while they won't concede the megapixel count to Nikon/Sony, I'm not sure they'll feel compelled to pull out all the stops to offer higher resolution and make that the main selling point for the next generation of APS-C bodies.
They are the industry leader in resolution, they know better than anyone what the downsides to high megapixel counts might be. So, my opinion is that Canon will serve up a decent increase in resolution in the next generation of APS-C sensors, but with the 7D II, I think they will pack some other features into the camera that their market research shows will motivate current 7D owners to buy a new model.
We could all make our list of what those features might be, but frankly...that would be an entirely different thread.
So, what do others think?