Will DSLRs be gone by 2025 and CIPA shipment volumes for first quarter

[Sith Zombie]

Lots of interesting theories here. Mine is that we will start to see the EF canon range adopt evf's and dual pixel af instead of a phase detect module. In 10 years maybe most of the rebel, xxD and an entry level full frame will be like this, similar form factors but no mirrors. Top end stuff will probably still be DSLR as the tech is refined. This way they have new products for their most profitable lines, i.e. rebels, still have the advantage of the ef lens range and keep pros happy by still providing top end DSLR lines. So to answer the question, no I don't think they will be gone but I don't think they'll be as many to choose from as we do now. If you look at the choice we have now, I think we're all extremely lucky!

 

[romanr74]

Not sure what this discussion is about really. I'm not sure i care if my camera has a mirror inside or not. I want a good viewfinder (i'm not religious if this is electronic or not - maybe I should be?), I have obviously nothing against good live-view capabilities and I want top-notch ergonomics (which the EOS dSLR cameras offer). I'm not after a smaller camera at all. I love shooting with my EOS 5III and a solid lens attached to it. I believe I have fairly good control with this type of gear...

 

[jcarapet]

If there is anything I have learned from this forum, it's that people are stubborn about keeping their DLSR's

mirrorless will get an increased market share, but 10 years is a little soon. Unless people really step up their game. Personally, I like my ergonomics on a fat DSLR and don't want that to go away. I'll have to get into the business of fat aftermarket grips if they do go away.

on the mirrorless front, mark my words. If Samsung had any good marketing, their newest camera would be blowing everybody out of the water. You can't beat it's features for the price.

 

[Valvebounce]

Hi Sanj.
Very nice shot, but then you seem to be very good at creating pro level images, I think the inference was that P&S, DSLR, MILC or Medium Format, these people would still fail to achieve that "professional look!" They still look like Smart Phone pictures! ;D

Cheers, Graham.

Disagree with: they still don't get this promised "professional look" (with ML).

Have you shot with a ML personally? Here is a ML photo taken 2 years ago. ML must have only improved...

 

[sanj]

The discussion is about some people thinking that the ML technology is moving ahead so rapidly that DSLR will eventually become archaic. While others feel that will not happen ever.

It is becoming a discussion akin to religion on this forum. Lol.

 

[gsealy]

I believe that DSLRs will definitely be around in 10 years. Canon and the other manufacturers are continuing to pack more and more features into them. The latest Canon high end cameras now have two processors. Technology continues to evolve. 4K video is still in its infancy.

The thing is that with cell phones people are taking more pictures than ever. There are people taking pictures that never took pictures before. Grandmothers and grandfathers are sharing pictures with their families. They are posting them on Facebook, Instagram, and G+. For right now that is hurting DSLR sales. But there will come a time for a lot of these people when they look at their pictures and compare them to what other people are posting. They will realize that they could do better, and they will look to higher end cameras to help them do that. So in my opinion the current explosion in mobile phone picture and video taking is going to create a future market for the DSLR.

 

[Sunnystate]

DSLR are great and really fascinating piece of machinery, no man would resist the charm of it, just like well crafted collectible guns or certain tools.

The problem is that there is nothing to add or improve on it, just by adding FPS or buffer size etc will not constitute real progress. Real progress and potential ground breaking inventions are in electronic viewfinders, just like in all electronic gadgets, look at smart phones, who would have thought what they can be used for now!

When Mirrorless technology will finally cross certain thresholds, and they are almost there, nothing will stop them from becoming tools of the wet dreams of every photographer, think global shutter and superior autofocus. With Canon and Nikon finally on board (if they survive) There is no way to tell what camera may be in 10 years from now, and again it is plan stupid and shortsighted (as always) to frown from a good things that will come no matter what you guys are thinking or wishing for. I am sure some of you more senior guys were fighting against autofocus 30 years a go.

 

[Maiaibing]

there will come a time for a lot of these people when they look at their pictures and compare them to what other people are posting. They will realize that they could do better, and they will look to higher end cameras to help them do that.

Its the emotional attachment - not photographic quality - which make people "like" a picture. What photogs consider technical quality is largely irrelevant.

This is what the we-hate-mp3-music-files-because-they-sound-bad crowd got wrong. Most people happily listen to sub-par music files through seriously bad sound systems every day. However, music quality matters very little as long as people can recognize it enough to make the emotional connection. 1$ iPhone ear plugs easily satisfy that quality level.

Meanwhile smartphones deliver more than enough visual and sound quality to satisfy the emotional threshold. People's favorite pictures on social media are thus not even even remotely correlated with traditional photographic quality norms - they are in stead correlated with emotions.

Ordinary people are thus not defining the future of the DSLR market. Because they have no conception of picture IQ above current smart phone levels. This is the realm of image geeks such as us.

Personally I think DSLRs are more likely than not to stay due to the geek factor. But its anyone's guess.

 

[sanj]

there will come a time for a lot of these people when they look at their pictures and compare them to what other people are posting. They will realize that they could do better, and they will look to higher end cameras to help them do that.

Its the emotional attachment - not photographic quality - which make people "like" a picture. What photogs consider technical quality is largely irrelevant.

This is what the we-hate-mp3-music-files-because-they-sound-bad crowd got wrong. Most people happily listen to sub-par music files through seriously bad sound systems every day. However, music quality matters very little as long as people can recognize it enough to make the emotional connection. 1$ iPhone ear plugs easily satisfy that quality level.

Meanwhile smartphones deliver more than enough visual and sound quality to satisfy the emotional threshold. People's favorite pictures on social media are thus not even even remotely correlated with traditional photographic quality norms - they are in stead correlated with emotions.

Ordinary people are thus not defining the future of the DSLR market. Because they have no conception of picture IQ above current smart phone levels. This is the realm of image geeks such as us.

Personally I think DSLRs are more likely than not to stay due to the geek factor. But its anyone's guess.

Well written. But I, on my knees, pray that high quality camera gear be affordable and available to those who want to pursue serious photography. There are plenty of magazines, books and artists in this world who require high end photography gear so I am not worried. ML or DSLR? WHO CARES? It should be better than today, thats all.

 

[sanj]

Hi Sanj.
Very nice shot, but then you seem to be very good at creating pro level images, I think the inference was that P&S, DSLR, MILC or Medium Format, these people would still fail to achieve that "professional look!" They still look like Smart Phone pictures! ;D

Cheers, Graham.

Disagree with: they still don't get this promised "professional look" (with ML).

Have you shot with a ML personally? Here is a ML photo taken 2 years ago. ML must have only improved...

 

[AcutancePhotography]

there will come a time for a lot of these people when they look at their pictures and compare them to what other people are posting. They will realize that they could do better, and they will look to higher end cameras to help them do that.

Its the emotional attachment - not photographic quality - which make people "like" a picture. What photogs consider technical quality is largely irrelevant.

This is what the we-hate-mp3-music-files-because-they-sound-bad crowd got wrong. Most people happily listen to sub-par music files through seriously bad sound systems every day. However, music quality matters very little as long as people can recognize it enough to make the emotional connection. 1$ iPhone ear plugs easily satisfy that quality level.

Meanwhile smartphones deliver more than enough visual and sound quality to satisfy the emotional threshold. People's favorite pictures on social media are thus not even even remotely correlated with traditional photographic quality norms - they are in stead correlated with emotions.

Ordinary people are thus not defining the future of the DSLR market. Because they have no conception of picture IQ above current smart phone levels. This is the realm of image geeks such as us.

Personally I think DSLRs are more likely than not to stay due to the geek factor. But its anyone's guess.

Excellent points. This concept of "good enough" may be linked to your definition of emotional threshold.

A lot of people want a photograph to remind them of something they experienced, or to convoy emotions/feelings to someone who did not experience them. For them a cell phone is all they need and want and there is nothing wrong with that.

Trying to sell these customers on DR, pixel density, CA, coma is trying to sell the wrong thing to the wrong people.

What is important to pro/skilled amateur photographers may be completely unimportant to these customers.

Different things appeal to different customers. The best camera is the one that is best for the individual. For many people a cell phone camera is best for them. For others a MICL camera is best for them. and for some a DSLR is best for them. Who is right? They are all are... for them.

 

[Moulyneau]

Mobile phones are shooting maximum photos is agreed. Outside of these DSLR are more visible, agreed again. But then they have been around much longer and used by many more.

Disagree with: they still don't get this promised "professional look" (with ML).

Have you shot with a ML personally? Here is a ML photo taken 2 years ago. ML must have only improved...

You sure provide a great demonstration here that it's not the camera but the photographer... That aside, I do agree that MILCs can produce great photography. As do the latest smart-phones. Just have a quick look at: https://www.flickr.com/search/?text=iPhone6

Lots of snapshots but I think some are quite amazing. I also guess that for now, the general assessment of the IQ of the MILCs is somehow compounded by the advance tech of the Sony sensors. How long will that last? Canon have no choice but to catch up.

I'm just saying that unless we see a big glass technology revolution, MILCs are not really meant to be attached with a 300mm/2.8 or even a 70-200/2.8 for hours on end, are they? So, we talk about general photography, say 16 to 100mm. In that segment, for now MILC's rule somehow, but my take is that over the next 10 years or so, smartphones are going to eat on this one. But not on the heft, ergonomics, pro features of the DSLRs.

 

[Chucho]

No, everybody will be shooting film by then.

 

[RGF]

we will all be shooting smart phones with attachments from our long lens

 

[unfocused]

we will all be shooting smart phones with attachments from our long lens

You might not be far off.

The only truly disruptive technology out there right now is light field focusing. If that can be perfected over the next decade, it's entirely possible we may be operating our lenses from a smart phone and then focusing the images later in post.

 

[sandymandy]

Doubt so. Even if....things will change slowly so there is nothing to worry about. Its not a smart move to throw out something instantly and render the products that came before useless. So im all chill.

 

[PhotographyFirst]

As long as there is any viewfinder lag and the EVF still uses power to allow you to see through the camera, then DSLR cameras will never go away. I personally like that I can shoot without drawing power to compose my shots and not create added heat on the sensor from constant activation. On Sony mirrorless cameras, the viewfinder or LCD is always drawing from the sensor when the camera is turned on. Not a good implementation for conserving an already miniscule battery supply. Carry a bunch of extra batteries completely defeats the idea of using mirrorless to reduce gear weight.

I can see viewfinder lag getting good enough over time, but it will be impossible for an EVF to ever be in use without drawing battery power.

 

[Lurker]

The DSLR will go the way of mainframe computers and paper checks.
Both are alive and well after 25+ years of doom and gloom predictions from the new technologists.
Certainly not in their hay day but still good business.

 

[Aglet]

SLR designs will be produced for quite a while yet, altho there's a good chance they'll become more and more relegated to higher-end niche areas with EVIL/ML taking over more of the low and midrange sales.
I won't be surprised to see Canon, Nikon, etc. produce a ML version of the Rebel and d3000 equivalents within the next few years. They're just easier and cheaper to produce and will be fast enough and become more battery-efficient by then to be viable.
They can even keep the same register distance as the "legacy" lenses.
Then again, as more production methods become even more automated, it'll be possible to maintain mirror-box production for competitively lower costs too.

If the Pentax K-01 would have had a good EVF we would have seen the birth of a proper MILC. Instead they delivered a funny-looking, if ergonomically excellent MILC body, with terrific IQ, that worked with legacy lenses but was often nearly useless outdoors because of the too dim rear display. I had and sold 2 of those because they were really only good for studio work and, well, so was the Pentax K-30 which also came with a nice OVF & PDAF system for the same price and worked as well in live-view mode as the K-01. I chose to keep the more versatile, cost-effective option.

 

[sanj]

Mobile phones are shooting maximum photos is agreed. Outside of these DSLR are more visible, agreed again. But then they have been around much longer and used by many more.

Disagree with: they still don't get this promised "professional look" (with ML).

Have you shot with a ML personally? Here is a ML photo taken 2 years ago. ML must have only improved...

You sure provide a great demonstration here that it's not the camera but the photographer... That aside, I do agree that MILCs can produce great photography. As do the latest smart-phones. Just have a quick look at: https://www.flickr.com/search/?text=iPhone6

Lots of snapshots but I think some are quite amazing. I also guess that for now, the general assessment of the IQ of the MILCs is somehow compounded by the advance tech of the Sony sensors. How long will that last? Canon have no choice but to catch up.

I'm just saying that unless we see a big glass technology revolution, MILCs are not really meant to be attached with a 300mm/2.8 or even a 70-200/2.8 for hours on end, are they? So, we talk about general photography, say 16 to 100mm. In that segment, for now MILC's rule somehow, but my take is that over the next 10 years or so, smartphones are going to eat on this one. But not on the heft, ergonomics, pro features of the DSLRs.

Thank you much.
Yes of course Iphone is making nice photos. But when put side by side to 'proper' cameras, their shortcomings become evident.

"But not on the heft, ergonomics, pro features of the DSLRs." Maybe in time ML will have all the ergonomics and pro features we all desire. Possible?