The 100-500 is currently £2819. I think Canon could sell a budget-range 200-600/5.6-8 (no tripod foot, no case, no hood, etc) for not much more than half that amount.
I don't think it would eat into sales of the RF100-500. Those who can afford it would still choose it, but those who can't afford it (and there are many in that position) would likely jump at the cheaper option. So it would provide additional sales, rather than cannibalise the 100-500.
How many Sony 100-400s that sell at £600 more than their 200-600s do you see in hides and on safaris? Not many I would guess because the birders went for the longer cheaper lens when it came out, which would be the likely scenario if Canon brought out a cheap but good 200-600.As for the cost of a 200-600/8 zoom, if Sony can sell thousands of them for £1499, why can't Canon? You say you think the niche is smaller than I suggest, but it's a big enough niche for Sony, and I see lots of their 200-600 in birding hides and on safaris.
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