Don Haines said:
dak723 said:
Again, it is easy to dump on Kodak and say they just didn't adapt to the transition from film to digital, but they made most of the initial cameras and a lot of the sensors, too. But it was not nearly enough to offset the almost complete loss of film and related products because there was no digital substitute for them.
Exactly!
The vast bulk of Kodak was paper, film, and chemicals. It vanished overnight and they were left with huge amounts of infrastructure which had suddenly turned from being assets into liabilities. Everyone knew digital was coming, but the speed at which the p/s cameras took over was astounding.
Therein lies the crux of it.
A portion of internet forum experts believe that it will be at the same speed at which EF, EFS lenses and DSLRs will vanish, with EFM being too nascent to fill the gaps. Some people hypothesize that Canon will turn into another Kodak because by 2020, DSLRs will be specialty devices.
I don't agree with that assessment at all, because I don't think film vs digital is a good comparison with DSLR versus mirrorless.
Digital vs film had two massive benefits: photos no longer cost anything to develop and you could see your results right away. For those who were never film photography enthusiasts, it's hard to overstate those two benefits. I spent enough money on Ilford paper and chemicals back then to buy a really nice piece of camera gear every year. Because of these benefits, it was easy to look early shortcomings of digital, and then to rapidly buy significantly upgraded models.
The benefits between mirrorless versus DSLR are much more dubious if you're not interested in videography. For some photography tasks,
mirrorless are a disadvantage (like wildlife/sports and flash/strobe photography), while for others, mirrorless have some nice advantages (like candids and street photography). But in either case, it's nothing near the difference between digital and film.
And finally, one of the most often stated benefits, size and weight, are practically all in consumer lenses, with pro lenses being as large or larger than DSLR counterparts, making the slimmer bodies an ergonomic disadvantage.
So, will mirrorless continue to gain traction? Absolutely, I think so. The lure of WYSIWIG is high, and the concept of grabbing frames off a camcorder is an appealing one. It's not a fad, and it's not going away. But at the same time, it's not a silver bullet and I think that DSLRs will remain more popular for a variety of tasks for the perceivable future.