The Sad Truth About Canon's Future?

Jul 21, 2010
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Well, I certainly won’t listen to you. For some reason you parade around this website like a gatekeeper with absolutely zero qualifications to do so. I typically ignore most of your posts because you immediately talk down to everyone. You are not qualified to talk down to me about this because I leave my backyard and travel the country taking motorsports photos. My observations on the dwindling number of young sports photographers using Canon and the rise in the number of Sony shooters is just that - something I’ve observed for several years. The Associated Press, UK’s Press Association, NFL, and countless other organizations and news outlets have switched. By all means, stay in your backyard and assume you’re the gatekeeper for all topics on Canon Rumors. Or just move on and not feel the need to pretend you know more than everyone else on this website any chance you get.
People often choose to ignore reality when it contradicts their opinions.

I analyze data for a living, so I understand the difference between anecdotes and data. Drawing conclusions from anecdotes is foolish. You’ve done so here, but I can assure you that Canon is not foolish.

As for news agencies switching brands, who makes that decision - the dwindling number of people using the cameras, or the people managing the dwindling budgets that pay for those cameras? If Sony offered a better deal…

Consider your opening question:
Has Canon officially lost the youth market in photography? I think they have...

Your evidence that Canon has ‘officially lost the youth market in photography’ is that you observe more young motorsports photographers using Sony than Canon at the events you attend. Professional photographers. In one sport genre. In one country. In your mind, that comprises ‘the youth market in photography’. Do you realize how asinine that sounds?

Here’s some interesting info:
They don’t reveal any information about their sampling methodology, so it’s still just anecdotal, but at least it has a broader reach than one person observing one tiny photography niche.
 
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Do you mean in full earnest that your Tamron 70-200 wit 2X extender is sharper than the RF 100-400 ?
No way, not even close !
Well, see for yourself...


The Tamron is not sharper at its largest aperture with a 2x teleconverter, that is true, but stop it down 1/3 of a stop to f/6.3 and it's already on pair with the 100-400, while maintaining a larger aperture — tested on a slightly higher resolution camera body than the RF lens.
By f/8, which is the maximum aperture of the RF 100-400 at 400mm, the Tamron is definitely sharper.

Well, how can the RF 100-400 be a good lens, given the low cost and lack of red ring? Looks like @m4ndr4ke escaped the RF trap but fell into a different trap.
I don't care for red rings. In fact I just sold one to replace it with 3rd party glass :)
And I'm not that sure I escaped the RF trap...time will tell
 
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Del Paso

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Well, see for yourself...


The Tamron is not sharper at its largest aperture with a 2x teleconverter, that is true, but stop it down 1/3 of a stop to f/6.3 and it's already on pair with the 100-400, while maintaining a larger aperture — tested on a slightly higher resolution camera body than the RF lens.
By f/8, the maximum aperture of the 100-400 at 400mm, the Tamron is definitely sharper. Better center, periphery and corner sharpness.


I don't care for red rings. In fact I just sold one to replace it with 3rd party glas

Well, see for yourself...


The Tamron is not sharper at its largest aperture with a 2x teleconverter, that is true, but stop it down 1/3 of a stop to f/6.3 and it's already on pair with the 100-400, while maintaining a larger aperture — tested on a slightly higher resolution camera body than the RF lens.
By f/8, which is the maximum aperture of the RF 100-400 at 400mm, the Tamron is definitely sharper.


I don't care for red rings. In fact I just sold one to replace it with 3rd party glass :)
And I'm not that sure I escaped the RF trap...time will tell
If I had relied on TDP's "image quality", I would never have bought the sharpest EF lens I own, the EF 180mm F3,5 macro. According to the picture of the chart, the EF 180 macro would have to be considered unacceptably soft. We all know it's just the opposite. So, if you really want to compare 2 lenses, better find a more reliable way...
 
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According to the picture of the chart, the EF 180 macro would have to be considered unacceptably soft.
Well, check again, because I see a decent result for that lens...far from "unacceptably soft". Maybe the source is more reliable than you say it is.


Being an old lens, over 25 years old, it's not fair to compare it at its brightest aperture.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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If I had relied on TDP's "image quality", I would never have bought the sharpest EF lens I own, the EF 180mm F3,5 macro. According to the picture of the chart, the EF 180 macro would have to be considered unacceptably soft. We all know it's just the opposite. So, if you really want to compare 2 lenses, better find a more reliable way...
Agreed. I like Bryan’s site and respect the work he does, but typically he tests one copy of a lens. Lens copies vary, sometimes by a lot.

My RF 100-400 has essentially nearly same center sharpness as my 100-500L, noticeably better than the copy of the RF 100-400 that Bryan tested (I have the same ISO 12233-type charts he uses).

When a lens performs much worse than he expects, he tests multiple copies (for example, he ended up testing four copies of the EF 24-70/2.8L II). His expectations are lower for non-L lenses, the only one I know for sure that he tested a second copy of was the EF-M 18-150 (I asked him to, because my results were significantly better than his, and his second copy was much better and those are the results in his tool).
 
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Del Paso

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Well, check again, because I see a decent result for that lens...far from "unacceptably soft". Maybe the source is more reliable than you say it is.


Being an old lens, over 25 years old, it's not fair to compare it at its brightest aperture.
I disagree! Nothing decent about what I see.
This 25 years old lens is damn sharp, even at F 3,5. But not on TDP's chart...
Apart from this , I still believe TDP's reviews are reliable, documented and unbiased.
 
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shadow

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Sony's menu's suck when in use in field on a non regular basis, all the learning curve and memorizing unless you use constantly just blows. Period. I am tired of using the 6400 and because of the interface lost some action shots, I perhaps wouldn't have had I brought my M50, but because Sony had the lenses it was why additional camera. My Canon touch screen is far superior. I await the Sonyr changed menu's (no idea when). However, the prosumer aspect of buying both low end cameras, is a mistake for video outdoors. For Video indoors, on a tripod both are fine for 1080p, which was the original goal.. Neither have in body IBIS and my 18-105 f/4 $600 lens is ok handheld for video but the M50 with EF85mm no IBIS, trying to shoot moving subjects the shake is unacceptable.

This stabilization thing really surprised me after using 4 different 1990's Sony and Sharp Handicams (shooting 200mph R/C F1 racing, now an extinct R/C class) how the results with MILC's without stabilization and such larger investment my videos are what they are outdoors for action. After spending $7000 on all this gear, its disappointing to see the cropped in $400. GoPro camera videos I watch on YT are more stable. Or the 640x480 90's low res on $400 camcorders video. It is what it is.
 
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Has Canon officially lost the youth market in photography? I think they have...

I recently had the privilege of covering one of the coolest races I've been wanting to shoot since I first heard about it - TX2K. This is a race that involves a lot of exotic cars going head-to-head in an elimination ladder - many breaking 215mph with a Nissan GTR breaking 237mph this year. Anyway, this was not my typical group of photographers I get to work with...most of the people out there shooting weren't professionals working for any publications, so I got to see a lot of new faces. Most of the photographers there were between the ages of 18-25, judging by the looks of them, and upwards of 90% of them were shooting on Sony. Canon was very poorly represented...but Nikon even more so.

I was told over 90 people were given official media access (get to be trackside with a vest) and if I had to guess, only 8-10 photographers were on Canon and maybe half of those were on Canon mirrorless. I personally saw only 3 people using Nikon. Literally everyone else was shooting Sony mirrorless.

Eventually I found myself chatting with several of them and I brought up the fact a lot of them were shooting Sony. Do you know what several of them they told me? Lenses and price. Several months ago, I made a post about how Canon would lose the market of up-and-coming photographers if third party manufacturers were left out of the RF mount. It was very interesting to see this on display.

I said this because I can still remember what it was like to be an up-and-coming photographer that eventually became a full-time professional. Along the way, I could only afford a Canon L-series lens here and there. I bought the best body I could realistically afford, and then I bought the best lenses I could afford. This allowed me to stay within the Canon ecosystem and grow into it. Right now...I don't see that as an option for photographers looking to buy new cameras. I know Canon always says people can adapt EF mount lenses but that is NOT something people want to do. Sure, that makes the transition easier for a lot of us since we can still use our older lenses as we migrate over, but "fresh" photographers going out and buying a Canon R6 or EOS R seldomly do so with the intention of adapting lenses and they can't really afford ANYTHING on the Native RF mount.

This is a very big deal in my opinion and I don't see it working out very well for Canon in the long run.
You are correct in some way regarding price.....Have been doing a lot of soul searching as to whether should swap brands when I go mirrorless...
Did a comparison of pricing for purchasing the lenses and body and if I was to jump ship to Sony I would save myself around £4000, then the ongoing price of lenses and with 3rd party lenses available for sony
 
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Between Canon and Sony what I'm seeing is that Canon is trying to move down market and trying to convert people who may be on the fence between smartphones and mirrorless cameras while Sony is looking to segment their cameras and sell as many cameras as they can to existing customers.

Take the newly relased entry entery level cameras from the two companies. The Canon R8 is essentially an R6ii stripped down for an amateur. You're missing a second sd card slot and ibis. But it has a brand new 24MP sensor that does 4k60 uncropped shooting both good video and photos. The downside is the RF lens selection, but most people moving up from a smartphone wont have an issue with that for a few years. They can purchase the body a 50mm prime and some accessories and be well under $2k. If they want to vlog they can get the 16mm for cheap and they have the 24mm and 35mm both with stabilization at a price that wont bank the bank.

Now take the ZV-E1 which is their newest "vlogging" camera which in theory should be aimed a similar market that wants to upgrade from the smartphone. At $2200 for just the body that seems a bit of a stretch. The camera is heavily slanted toward video and while it does low light well the 12MP sensor isn't going to be the best for photos. You cant really put the cheaper apsc glass because you'd cut in on the already low megapixel sensor. If you look at all the reviews all the people within Sony's ecosystem love the camera because its basically the same sensor in the A7Siii that sells for $3500. The problem is that camera is 3 years old at this point. Pretty much no one recommends it to someone starting out as its too expensive and not versatile and instead they all think its great for people who need a back up a7Siii for cheap.

So then you say if it isn't good for photos and vidos and its $2200 why not spend $2500 for the A74. The problem is the a74 doesn't do 4k60 uncropped. But you get that on the R8 and R6ii. And again the R8 is $1500. They intentionalled cripped the a74 so that it would be slightly worse in video for the only reason to push their customers to want 2 cameras instead of one. I don't think this is a good move when smartphones are continually getting better making mirrorless camera obsolete. They should be pushing to make the best cameras to convert people to these cameras and get them used to using them in their workflow.

I think the R8 and R50 are great all around entry cameras and will do well in finding new customers. The r50 is already topping charts in Japan and once they can start shipping the r8 I assume it will do the same.

The main issue will be once they bring new people into the Canon ecosystem over the next year or two will they release enough variety in lenses to keep people.
 
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The main issue will be once they bring new people into the Canon ecosystem over the next year or two will they release enough variety in lenses to keep people.
I think keeping people is easier than bringing them in. As for lens variety, historically most users do not buy that many lenses (though that may be changing), and zooms are far more popular than primes. Consider that Canon has a very reasonably prices trinity of consumer zooms covering 15mm to 400mm – that is likely to meet the needs of a majority of FF users, at least.
 
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Could you point me in the direction of what those resonably priced zoom lens are, expecially on the wide side. This to me seems to be their biggest weakness.

I orginally shot on Nikon and had affordable but decent Tamron and Sigma lenses. The R8 seems enticing enough for me to jump back in with Canon but $2,400 for a 2.8 wide angle zoom vs $800 - $1000 from a competitor almost makes the price of the camera irrelevant at that point.
 
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Could you point me in the direction of what those resonably priced zoom lens are, expecially on the wide side. This to me seems to be their biggest weakness.

I orginally shot on Nikon and had affordable but decent Tamron and Sigma lenses. The R8 seems enticing enough for me to jump back in with Canon but $2,400 for a 2.8 wide angle zoom vs $800 - $1000 from a competitor almost makes the price of the camera irrelevant at that point.
The RF 15-30mm f/4.5-6.3 IS sells for $550, or if a prime will work the RF 16/2.8 is $280.

The 'trinity of consumer zooms covering 15-400mm' that I referred to comprises the RF 15-30 ($550), RF 24-105/4-7.1 ($400) and RF 100-400 ($600), totaling $1550. The 100-400 is currently at $50 discount from list price, so the set could run $1600. I actually bought the 100-400 from B&H during the rebates in Dec 2022 when it was selling for only $500.
 
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Got it thanks. Yeah those lenses highlight the problem Canon is in. If they opened up their lenses they would have Sigma and Tamron options at a fixed 2.8 compared to 4.5 variable at a similar price.

Again, I think people can get by with a low cost prime to start but they need to start rolling out competive lenses.
Lol. Canon is not ‘in a problem’ of any sort. They have been the ILC market leader for 20 years, and they continue to dominate the market. For many years, Sony led the mirrorless market in Japan, but last year Canon took away their #1 spot in that segment.

Clearly, Canon is doing just fine at selling cameras and lenses. Far better than any other brand. Why should they open the RF mount?

If you don’t find their lenses ‘competitive’ because you want a constant aperture zoom and can’t afford Canon’s L-series lenses, sorry but that’s not a Canon problem, that’s a you problem.

Of course, there are a wide variety of constant aperture zoom lenses, both used EF-L series and new/used third-party EF mount, that work perfectly on R bodies via the mount adapter. You want native lenses? Still a you problem.
 
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@neuroanatomist

Read my first post. I was highligting that I think Canon seems to be moving in a better position than Sony to bring NEW people into the category of ILC. The R5 and R8 seem like great entry options.

I think its clear that the market for ILC is slowy dying. DSLR's got replaced mirrorless and slowly mirrolress is getting replaced by smarthphones. Canon trying to bring new people to the industry is a good move. We AGREE that Canon has the largest market share, but again they are the largest in a market that is declining.

Looking at consumers and telling them that they cant afford a Canon lens at a price that their competitor sells lenses for is somehow the consumers problem is not really a strategy to grow your busines.

FYI I'm a hobbyist. I can afford ALL of these cameras and lenses. The issue is that 95% of the time my smarthphone produces good enough results. I'm looking to give money to these companies not because I need them but because I enjoy spending money on gadets as a hobby. The results I get out aren't really worth the additional invest but the experience is better so I'm willing to pay. I'm the exact kind of customer these companies need to grow.

If they are going to be flippant and arrogant with that sort of statement then fine, I'll let them die off even faster.
 
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But the sigma 16-28 F2.8 is $600 cheaper. Or the Tamron 17-28 F2.8 is $700 cheaper.

I would take the wide aperature for the smaller focal range at a similar price and all day at those discounts. That's not to say those lenses are as good as the canon lense but giving the customer options counts for something.

In a world where the camera market is shrinking you would think these companies would be trying to give as many options as possible.
 
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Read my first post. I was highligting that I think Canon seems to be moving in a better position than Sony to bring NEW people into the category of ILC. The R5 and R8 seem like great entry options.
Agreed.

I think its clear that the market for ILC is slowy dying. DSLR's got replaced mirrorless and slowly mirrolress is getting replaced by smarthphones. Canon trying to bring new people to the industry is a good move. We AGREE that Canon has the largest market share, but again they are the largest in a market that is declining.
Was declining. According to Canon's financials as well as industry reporting, the ILC decline appears to have leveled off and has started to increase (albeit only slightly).

Looking at consumers and telling them that they cant afford a Canon lens at a price that their competitor sells lenses for is somehow the consumers problem is not really a strategy to grow your busines.
So, which of Canon's competitors has a 16mm f/2.8 lens for under $300? A FF 15/16-xx mm zoom for under $600? I guess I missed those more affordable competitor lenses.

It's also worth noting that 'growing your business' doesn't necessarily mean selling more lenses. That's important, but so is the profit margin. Selling an additional 10,000 high end lenses with a $500 margin is more growth than selling an additional 100,000 inexpensive lenses with a $40 margin.

I'm curious – what multinational, multibillion dollar market cap imaging/industrial products business do you run? It's so amusing when people here claim they know better than Canon how to make and sell cameras and lenses.

FYI I'm a hobbyist. I can afford ALL of these cameras and lenses. The issue is that 95% of the time my smarthphone produces good enough results. I'm looking to give money to these companies not because I need them but because I enjoy spending money on gadets as a hobby. The results I get out aren't really worth the additional invest but the experience is better so I'm willing to pay. I'm the exact kind of customer these companies need to grow.

If they are going to be flippant and arrogant with that sort of statement then fine, I'll let them die off even faster.
Sure, sure. But have you told Canon that unless they offer fast, fixed aperture RF mount zoom lenses at 3rd party prices they'll lose your business? I'm sure that would get them to change their strategy, especially if you tell them how wrong their approach is. Good luck with that.
 
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Was declining. According to Canon's financials as well as industry reporting, the ILC decline appears to have leveled off and has started to increase (albeit only slightly).
The sales were MUCH higher years ago. They dropped extemely low due to material shortages. That increase is slowly working the pipeline issues out. So I agree that it has leveled off. But it has done so at rate that is a fraction of what it was in the past. The non ILC marketed has basically been rendered obsolete, and now DSLR are essentially moving that way as well. So the market is consolidating around mirrorless as its last stand. There is currently a market for Youtubers, content creators, etc. But eventually this market will be wiped out as well and its going to happen faster if they dont provide options. Ultimately they'll essentially only be able to sell ultra high end specific cameras as that will be the only niche to fill. Providing competitive options pushes that day off and brings more people in the hobby.

On the smartphone side you already have companies like profoto that are designing their flashes to work directly with smartphones. Imagine the workflow of being able to take flash photography directly on a smartphone, saved directly to the cloud, quickly edited on the same phone and then posted to social media.

Sony has already stated "we expect that still images [from smartphones] will exceed the image quality of single-lens reflex cameras within the next few years". Now that probably is due to the fact that Sony has 42% of the global image sensor market for phones. I currently think CANON has the BETTER strategy for ILC to try and bring in entry level consumers by providing more robust entry level cameras. My rub with Sony is that I believe they are less focused on the entry level market. They are fragmenting the market for their cameras to try and sell more higher end cameras to the same consumer. There is no reason why the A74 should have 4k60 cropped other than to make the consumer want to buy the new ZV-E1 as a backup/alternate camera. But it seems their strategy is to NOT focus heavily on the entry level because they serve that market buy selling image sensors for iphones.
So, which of Canon's competitors has a 16mm f/2.8 lens for under $300? A FF 15/16-xx mm zoom for under $600? I guess I missed those more affordable competitor lenses.
Look back at my original post. The 16mm F2.8 prime was the lens I RECOMMENDED. I think the R8 with the 16mm and either the 24mm or 35mm with stabilization gives you a total price around $2,200 which is the price for the ZV-E1 body ONLY.

Now as far as zoom lenses that where I see an issue. Sony has way more options because their e-mount is open to Sigma and Tamron. There are multiple lenses Sigma 18-50mmF2.8 ($550), Tamron 11-20mm F2.8($700), Tamron 17-28mm F2.8($800) just to name a few. Were talking about people looking to step up from smartphones. They are not going to be blowing images up they are looking for a certail look for youtube and social media. They are looking for at least an F2.8. The canon F2.8 is $2400.

Look at the Canon RF 24-70mm F2.8 at $2400. The Sigma equivalent on the E mount for Sony is $1100. IF you are buying the Canon R3 or Sony A1 then sure have the absolute best quality 24-70mm for them to buy at $2400. But people buying cameras like the A74 or teh R6ii at $2500 giving them an option at $1100 goes along way.

It's also worth noting that 'growing your business' doesn't necessarily mean selling more lenses. That's important, but so is the profit margin. Selling an additional 10,000 high end lenses with a $500 margin is more growth than selling an additional 100,000 inexpensive lenses with a $40 margin.

I'm curious – what multinational, multibillion dollar market cap imaging/industrial products business do you run? It's so amusing when people here claim they know better than Canon how to make and sell cameras and lenses.
I somewhat agree here. In my day job I work in real estate development consulting and as a small boutique company we focuse on taking on less projects that pay more per project. But again we are a boutique company with 6 people and a 50% operting margin. Our model doesn't work at scale with the larger corporate companies we compete with.

Canon can run their business as they see fit. I'm sure when Blockbuster controled the home video market with the most brand recognition had plenty of business acumen. They should'v become what Netfilx is today but they ignored the streaming sector and didn't cater to those customers because they were on top.

Sure, sure. But have you told Canon that unless they offer fast, fixed aperture RF mount zoom lenses at 3rd party prices they'll lose your business? I'm sure that would get them to change their strategy, especially if you tell them how wrong their approach is. Good luck with that.
Go on the Youtube. Look at most of the more popular content creators. Sony is clearly the prefered platform and the big reasons are the lens selection. Sony jumped into mirrorless first and Canon finally moved over because they were forced. Canon has overtaken Sony as leads mirroless sales. Again they seem more willing to focus on the sub $1500 market (GREAT). However they seem to be trying to go the gillette route and sell more low end cameras to get people into the fold but then make up that money by forcing them to buy more expensive lenses.

If they want to go the Blockbuster route and focus on making the most money today but sacraficing the future I don't think that bodes well for camera hobbyist in the long run.

Go look in the comments section of any place that is pro Sony. Anytime someone mentions hey the R8 or R6ii are better cameras than the Sony equivalent the immediate reaction is BUT you have to pay $1000 more for a comparable lens. Why get the R8 and 24-70mm for a combined $3900 when you can get the clearly better A74 and the Sigma 24-70mm for a combined $3600.

But you could be correct. For all I know they may not have the capacity at this point to make more cameras faster so why try to provide more lens options to sell at a lower cost when its not going to translate into more camera sales. Going back to the original topic of this thread then the future for Canon's camera division may indeed be very sad.

And none of this even touches on AI.
 
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