CIPA Data for February 2018 is out. Long live the DSLR

[Richard CR]

Having just posted CanonNew’s analysis and breakdown of the CIPA results, I really don’t know what to write here on Canon Rumors.</p>
<p>If you want to really see what I say about the data, go over to <a href="https://www.canonnews.com/february-2018-cipa-results-and-analysis">CanonNews</a>.  Shameless plug? You betcha.</p>
<p>In summary though;</p>
<ol>
<li>Yes it was a good month, especially for DSLR’s that outpaced mirrorless overall for the month.</li>
<li>Results aren’t as good as they appear, partly due to the fact of what I believe is Canon mass shipping all those little rebels that came out.</li>
</ol>
<p>A main take away point;</p>
<blockquote><p>A proper correction month would have had February 2018 sales still under that of this month last year, and most likely continuing for March.

This could mean that outside forces such as new releases have increased sales especially of DSLR’s over that period.  This may have well have happened as Canon released their low end products earlier this year, which would have been mass shipped to retailers in February.</p>
<p>This we see in more clarity when we look at the per unit values for mirrorless and DSLR.  Where the mirrorless values remain consistent, in February, we see a fairly dramatic shift to a lower unit value for DSLRs; meaning there was a higher amount of low value units shipped in February.</p></blockquote>
<p> </p>
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[Richard CR]

Because I'm nice, here's what I had to say about everything for your viewing pleasure:

<p>This months&rsquo; CIPA data was released with some surprising results.</p>

<p>February showed slightly increased sales volume against February 2017, that is an interesting data point that needs to be explored in far more detail versus just an overall summary that it&rsquo;s a good month.</p>

<p>A year ago, February, the shipment totals were increased because of the pent-up shipments of mirrorless in that time frame.  This is shown on this month where we see mirrorless shipments fall in general when compared to a year past.  However, this month unlike last month, DSLR shipments have also increased making up for the lack of volume of mirrorless.</p>

<p>A proper correction month would have had February 2018 sales still under that of this month last year, and most likely continuing for March.

This could mean that outside forces such as new releases have increased sales especially of DSLR&#38;#38;#39;s over that period, which may have happened as Canon released their low end products earlier this year, which would have been mass shipped to retailers in February.</p>

<p>This we see in more clarity when we look at the per unit values for mirrorless and DSLR.  Where the mirrorless values remain consistent, in February, we see a fairly dramatic shift to a lower unit value for DSLRs; meaning there was a higher amount of low value units shipped in February.

This really is a key datapoint that many are missing with their analysis today.</p>

<p>So is this a rebound month?</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s hard to say, because Canon mass shipped a bunch of DSLR&rsquo;s. It is still an important consideration as most months we argue that the consistency of new production releases in Mirrorless give a false sense of calm in that market versus that of the DSLR market.  It&rsquo;s certainly a good month, however it does nothing to show that the continued presence of mirrorless is in any way stopping this month.</p>

<p>Overall the marketshare seems to have stabilized since early 2017, as now for over a year it seems to be floating around the 35% level for mirrorless.  Even though this was a better month for DLSR&rsquo;s there&rsquo;s no real indication that it&rsquo;s going to be an ongoing trend.  Instead, given the shipments of February, it&rsquo;s more likely that next month we&rsquo;ll see a return to the 35% for mirrorless marketshare.

Asia and mirrorless show a leveling of around 60% of the mirrorless market, no real great surprise there as it’s been that way for around 5 years now.  Somewhat interestingly, Japan by itself shows an uptick, leading to believe that perhaps there was more domestic activity than in recent months.

Understandable with Olympus, Panasonic and Canon all releasing mirrorless models, and most geared to a more domestic market (EOS-M50, E-PL9, GF10).</p>

<p>In closing, we have seen a relatively optimistic month, tempered by some new cameras that slightly changed the narrative over months past.  We will have a better feel for the patterns over the next two months.</p>

 

[Talys]

Neat stuff, thank you for posting, analyzing, and sharing!

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

A year ago, Sony had a huge sale with several hundred dollars off their cameras, likely because inventory was too high. Then they claimed they were #1 in sales. They had a sale again this year, but smaller.

Camera sales, and new camera introductions do distort things, particularly over a short time period. Canon is raising prices in Europe, and cutting back on rebates in the USA, so apparently the market supports higher prices right now. The new low priced cameras may also be boosting sales as your analysis shows.

I can't begin to figure out how all these variables play together, I wonder what March will show.

 

[Talys]

A year ago, Sony had a huge sale with several hundred dollars off their cameras, likely because inventory was too high. Then they claimed they were #1 in sales. They had a sale again this year, but smaller.

Camera sales, and new camera introductions do distort things, particularly over a short time period. Canon is raising prices in Europe, and cutting back on rebates in the USA, so apparently the market supports higher prices right now. The new low priced cameras may also be boosting sales as your analysis shows.

I can't begin to figure out how all these variables play together, I wonder what March will show.

Yes -- this is why quarterly and annual data is much more useful in the long run, but in the meantime, this is something we can all obsess over

 

[mb66energy]

I have seen some advantages coming with new bodies which had similar overall IQ:
20D (shutter release butten defect) => 40D with live view => 600D & EOSM with (HD) video + flippy screen (600D)

A major improvement in IQ was visible with
2nd hand bought 5D classic (in 2015) => 200D&SL2 (2017)

What ergonomics / features / IQ improvements do I need? None at the moment! I am the weakest link in the chain, I have to improve and my gear isn't limiting at the moment.

So no interest in buying a new camera / lens - except M50 to reuse older optics and potentially an EF 1.4/50 IS USM.

 

[3dit0r]

I went back to a pro-level DSLR from mirrorless this weekend, although mine was a second-hand body, so I didn't contribute in any way to the sales figures

My initial thoughts, for what they're worth, after several years of mirrorless-only ownership:
- I keep surprising myself that what I see through the OVF isn't representative of exposure, etc. I know that sounds retarded, but the latest EVFs are so good they seem 'optical' to all intents and purposes, and once you've got used to 'seeing' the exposure, it's a strange adjustment back to not.
- I need an extra stop or so to handhold now, due to mirror-slap I expect, compared to my previous X-Pro 2.
- I need several extra stops (or a stabilised lens) to handhold as low as previous mirrorless bodies with IBIS.
- The DSLR is an order of magnitude better built than the Fuji, far more refined and rugged. The only mirrorless system I had which felt on this level was an Oly E-M1 and the 'pro' lenses.
- Technical image quality of the DSLR is better than most mirrorless options I had. It's around equal with an A7rii, to my eye, except for less resolution, but I seem to be able to push the files as well.
- AF is faster and more positive on the DSLR.
- Although mine seems OK with my current lenses, it's a strange concept to return to that my lens/AF calibration might be 'out' and need adjustment. Big advantage to mirrorless having PDAF on-sensor, if it does focus, it's always dead-on focus and doesn't require calibration.
- Video options are lacking, but GH5s is my video camera (I would combine these if Canon brought out a great mirrorless option with great video too).
- Although the DSLR body is heavier, with existing lenses for APS-C/full frame, the overall system with like-for-like focal lengths/apertures doesn't really weigh that much more.
- DSLR body takes up quite a bit more room in my equipment bag, might need a new bag!

My takeaway is, at this point, neither is ideal. If Canon actually gave us the best bits of DSLR and mirrorless, with uncropped video at least on a par with GH5s, and all the features they're renowned for like great colour science and DPAF, I'd be all over it.

 

[Hector1970]

The results seem fine but I'm not sure where the whole market it going.
I'm sure there are still plenty of new photographers getting into the hobby out there who are new to the market.
For those already in the market and invested in full frame there is very little tempting me to upgrade cameras.
Alot of the upgrades now are quite marginal. Tony Northrup has a new video up about that same topic. The degrees of improvement are so small they are within a vagaries of camera testing.
I have a 5D IV which is a very good camera but only marginally better than a 5DIII.
The 6D II is only marginally better than the 6D.
I have an Olympus OM-D 10 II and now there is a version III with very marginal improvements - none of which are compelling to change.
The cameras are running out of road in terms of what they can improve on.
I had some prints from a 7DII (which I'm not mad about as a camera) blown up to 60 inches by 40 inches for an exhibition and I was amazed at the detail in the print. It would have been hard for any camera to be noticeably better.
I think Canon will find it harder to convince people to upgrade cameras in the next numbers of years , They will get a bump with the first mirrorless camera but after that it will be difficult.

 

[Chaitanya]

Guess Digital ILC have matured enough that most people dont seem to have reason to upgrade every 3 years or so and can easily stretch till current camera dies. Lets wait till middle of year to know exact situation of Camera industry.

 

[Tugela]

You need to look at annual performance, not a single month's performance relative to the previous years. The reason being that monthly performance is strongly affected by what happens to have been released just prior to that, both this year and the previous year. In the case of these February numbers, DSLR numbers have been kicked up by the recent release and backlog of the D850. One the other hand, the major MILC driver will be the a7III, and those numbers will not start to kick in until March at the earliest, so MILCs having relatively low numbers in January and February is not surprising.

Let's see what March and April look like before setting off the fireworks.

 

[neuroanatomist]

You need to look at annual performance, not a single month's performance relative to the previous years. The reason being that monthly performance is strongly affected by what happens to have been released just prior to that, both this year and the previous year.

Agreed. But if you're going to do more than look, it certainly helps to have a brain capable of cogent thought behind your eyes.

In the case of these February numbers, DSLR numbers have been kicked up by the recent release and backlog of the D850. One the other hand, the major MILC driver will be the a7III, and those numbers will not start to kick in until March at the earliest, so MILCs having relatively low numbers in January and February is not surprising.

Shipments of full frame ILCs driving overall numbers is a tail wagging the dog scenario. Far more likely that the higher dSLR numbers were driven by bolus shipments of Canon's recently launched xxxD/Rebel models.

 

[Talys]

The reason being that monthly performance is strongly affected by what happens to have been released just prior to that, both this year and the previous year. In the case of these February numbers, DSLR numbers have been kicked up by the recent release and backlog of the D850.

The average price per unit of DSLRs dropped precipitously, from just under 60,000 yen to about 45,000 yen, or about $560 to $420. That doesn't jive with your hypothesis of the month's DSLR numbers being boosted by earth-shattering sales of a $3,000 DSLR.

The CN analysis of shipments of entry level units makes much more sense.

A more plausible analysis would be the opposite - that the Nikon D850, while indisputably popular as a full frame flagship, makes up only a very small percentage of total DSLR sales.