1DX Replacement

[dolina]

To give you a brief background on my self-generated speculation the 1DX was announced on October 18, 2011, the 1D4 on October 20 2009 and the 1D3 on February 21, 2007.

This represents 24 months between the 1DX & 1D4 and 32 months between 1D4 and 1D3.

Given the data above one can reasonably expect a 1DX replacement to be announced by late October 2013 or late June 2014.

For those who may not know pro bodies and pro lenses are often announced months before a major sporting event like say FIFA World Cup that is happening next year in Brazil on Thursday, June 12 or the XXII Olympic Winter Games that is happening next year in Russia on Friday, February 7.

If the 1DX replacement is announced by late October 2013 I expect stocks to trickle in after Christmas 2013. I was able to get one of the first 1D4 bodies in late January 2010. I expect something similar this time around.

So if you have a 1D4, 5D2 and a few 7D bodies is it time to upgrade or would you just wait 9 more months?

 

[RS2021]

If I were to speculate, the next 1 series body will be the high megapixel 1DsX (or whatever you wanna call it), it will not be a sports or high-speed camera.

While it may have a decent fps, clearly it will not match the fast guns on both the canon and nikon camps.

The camera you are talking about already happened, and it was the 1DX. It was released just last year and saw some use in the London Olympics with prototypes circulating earlier...it has also garnered very good reviews and customer satisfaction, so Canon will be in no hurry to replace it that quickly.

So the upcoming body from Canon will be the answer to Nikon's D800...a high MP 1 series....we will tentatively call it 1DsX

 

[bdunbar79]

Interesting read on it. I wouldn't expect a replacement that soon in this case however. Remember, the 1D4 directly replaced the 1D3. That was not the case this time. In Canon's own words, this was to also replace the 1Ds3, although we know it did not really do that. I would expect at least 32 months again, if not more.

 

[charlesa]

No way the 1DX will be replaced that soon. Canon have to admit it is not a replacement for studio and landscape photographers, but really aimed at high speed action. Next high end body would probably be a high resolution sensor, although it does not make sense either, since the near medium format Nikon D800E is priced way less than what Canon would charge for a 1D body on release....

 

[RS2021]

I would expect at least 32 months again, if not more.

I will go with more than 32 months. What 1DX actually replaced "functionally" was the the APS-H 1D4...Canon effectively eliminated the crop sensor from their one series line in doing so, but was able to keep the high-speed and other highend functions by going with lower MP in a full frame.

I suspect they still plan to have two 1 series bodies, one that is fast, lower MP, "1D4-like" (which is the 1DX) and one that is higher MP studio- and landscape oriented, i.e, "1DsIII-like" (the yet to arrive 1DsX).

Instead of stratifying by sensor size, as they did with 1D4 and 1DsIII, they will now use speed/megapixels inversely to stratify their two high end 1 series bodies...but both will be full frame.

 

[dolina]

Product announcements

1DX on October 18, 2011 (24 months)
1D4 on October 20, 2009 (32 months)
1D3 on February 21, 2007 (18 months)
1D2n on August 22, 2005 (17 months)
1D2 on January 29, 2004

 

[RS2021]

Product announcements

1DX on October 18, 2011 (24 months)
1D4 on October 20, 2009 (32 months)
1D3 on February 21, 2007 (18 months)
1D2n on August 22, 2005 (17 months)
1D2 on January 29, 2004

Only complication could be, you are using the defunct crop sensor upgrade time line... I would, from 1DX forward, switch to the 1Ds-like upgrade-timeline, which got progressively longer, being a full frame one supposes. So, I think your time-frame may now apply to 1DX.

 

[dolina]

Product announcements

1Ds Mark III - Aug 20, 2007 (35 months)
1Ds Mark II - Sep 23, 2004 (24 months)
1Ds - Sep 23, 2002

So... what now? Anyway not telling anyone not to stop buying. Just saying be aware.

 

[RS2021]

Product announcements

1Ds Mark III - Aug 20, 2007 (35 months)
1Ds Mark II - Sep 23, 2004 (24 months)
1Ds - Sep 23, 2002

So... what now? Anyway not telling anyone not to stop buying. Just saying be aware.

You conveniently leave out the data point that there is NO true update yet for 1DsMarkIII ...or if one is lax, you should at least co-opt 1Dx as an update (which Canon said it was)...which was October 2011!!! 50 Months from the 1DsIII.

Selective listing of data to argue your point doesn't always help convince anyone.

Lets take the best and worst case scenario to support your rather flimsy thesis...

Even if one assumes that 1DX is "partially" a replacement for 1DsIII, that is 50 Months from 1DsMarkIII announcement to 1DX announcement in October 2011. Which you fail to list.

Much worse, if one assumes that 1DX is not the 1DsIII update, and this true high-MP update is yet to be announced, then it is 67months and counting as of now...

Either way, you leave out a key data point.

Any further contortion of the timeline is just plain silly and can only serve you to hold on to your rather weak prediction.

No one in their right mind is expecting a replacement for 1DX anytime soon

 

[brett b]

Interesting read on it. I wouldn't expect a replacement that soon in this case however. Remember, the 1D4 directly replaced the 1D3. That was not the case this time. In Canon's own words, this was to also replace the 1Ds3, although we know it did not really do that. I would expect at least 32 months again, if not more.

Exactly. Canon billed the 1DX as the merging of the 1D &1Ds series bodies into one...indicating that there would now be only one 1 series body.
As bdunbar indicates, this really isn't the case. They are working on a high megapixal body. And I agree with RS2021 that they will have two pro bodies...one high speed and one high MP...this might as well be called a 1DXs. But I don't think they will be able to call it a 1 series body since it would be contradicting their marketing of the 1DX.
I'm not one to complain about the price of Canon bodies. I bought the 1DsII, 1DsIII, 1DIV & 1DX at full price when they were new. However, what irks me is that they launched the 1DX as the consolidation of the 1 series giving them the ability to price it between the 1D & 1Ds pricing, knowing all along that they were working on a high MP body that will be the true replacement to the 1DsIII. Therefore, the 1DX is the next gen 1D body w a full frame sensor costing $1800 more than the 1DIV.
All that said...I love the 1DX and don't have any regrets buying it. My eye doesn't see a drop off in IQ from the 1DsIII but with the drop in MP, it's not exactly a replacement.
So, I don't think they 1DX will be replaced within the usual time frame. I think we'll see the high MP body first.

 

[ishdakuteb]

Product announcements

1DX on October 18, 2011 (24 months)
1D4 on October 20, 2009 (32 months)
1D3 on February 21, 2007 (18 months)
1D2n on August 22, 2005 (17 months)
1D2 on January 29, 2004

i agree with charlesa who said, "No way the 1DX will be replaced that soon". and keep in mind that 1dx is actually a direct replacement of 1ds mark iii, which was announced in 2007, instead of 1d 4. so think about it... unless canon come up with a 1d series body with a different usage such as either aps-h or high m-pixel camera. i do not see that 1dx replacement coming out pretty soon, say within about another 3 or 4 years...

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

The main issue for updates is the cost of a new model. By that, I mean the cost for Canon to release a new 1 series model.
Canon does a extreme amount of testing for potential new 1 series models, and the cost is very high. They are always testing new technology, but the cost to actually tool and produce one is high.

This means that they will wait as long as possible to release something new. That will depend on multiple things.
1. Sales and profit.

2. What does the competition have.

3. What new technology exists that will attract buyers, and what will the cost be to produce it. A selling price is set first, and then designers have to compromise until they can meet it. It may very well be possible to do more with a $10K selling price, but if that's not the target, it doesn't matter.

So, we may well see another 1 Series camera this year or next, but it might not be a replacement. A 50mp body, for example, is not going to do as many frames per second, but maybe the rumored Digic 6 will change that.

The rumored 7D MK II mini 1 series might be the next high end model at a lower price than the 1D X. Its probably not a good time to produce a $10K body.

 

[bdunbar79]

Product announcements

1Ds Mark III - Aug 20, 2007 (35 months)
1Ds Mark II - Sep 23, 2004 (24 months)
1Ds - Sep 23, 2002

So... what now? Anyway not telling anyone not to stop buying. Just saying be aware.

Except it makes absolutely no sense to replace a revolutionary camera in 2 years, or even 3, or probably even 4. You can't just look at arbitrary dates, you have to employ the art of thinking too.

 

[sanj]

Premature.

 

[Harv]

Why are we all assuming that a new high MP body will be a 1-Series. Could it not be a 5-Series? 5Dx perhaps?

 

[bdunbar79]

Why are we all assuming that a new high MP body will be a 1-Series. Could it not be a 5-Series? 5Dx perhaps?

I'm going 3-series. Ok ok ok ok ok, I admit. I'm still an EOS-3 junkie .

 

[RS2021]

Why are we all assuming that a new high MP body will be a 1-Series. Could it not be a 5-Series? 5Dx perhaps?

I'm going 3-series. Ok ok ok ok ok, I admit. I'm still an EOS-3 junkie .

I have no objection to that... Canon can cripple it significantly and bring the price down to $4000 or so...3D or 4D.

However, I vaguely remember their product line "pyramid" photo that was circulating a while ago where, if I remember well, they depicted two top tier cameras ...one slot persumably was taken up by 1DX and the other was left empty with an arrow pointing toward it from the bottom of the pyramid...

So that made me lean toward the 1DsX...but I suppose a high MP could be slotted in between 1DX and 5D3 as well....will keep the price down and Canon can make it primarily a high MP body without all the bells and whistles.

 

[RS2021]

Whatever the high MP body is eventually called, I know there is an expectant fan base for it in the rumor sites and the landscape crowd...but as making money in landscape with 35mm format is one of the hardest venues in paid photography, most pros may not be clamoring for it... fanboys will...and I don't begrudge them. It is not my thing, but hey, If you are a hobbyist, and seeing that pebble in the mountain side at 3 miles titillates you... go for it!

So eventually Canon may tip a nod to the fanboys and deliver a high MP body with low fps as a response to D800... with lower end or middle of the road features thus reducing the price and selling more units.

But somehow I doubt many pro's are waiting breathlessly till this high MP body is released...they would much rather have the pro-friendly features the 1Dx already offers.

 

[dolina]

You guys are running under the assumption that CR's rumors are 100% accurate. ;D

Whether it be the 1Ds X or 1DX Mark 2 it doesn't matter. There will be a new double gripped body for the Winter Games and World Cup of 2014 per product cylce. ;D


It is like that CR2 rumor on the replacement of the 200/2 and 800/5.6.

These two lenses were announced in mid-2007 and shipped mid-2008. That is 6 years ago! I agree these will be replaced eventually but not within the next 36 months.

CR points to Nikon offering a 200/2 VR2 and the yet to be shipped 800/5.6 VR but both these lenses are not lighter or offer better USM or IS than Canon. In fact the Nikon equivalents are still heavier even if they are newer. They MAY offer better optical performance but who will buy the 800/5.6 IS II exceeding the price of the 800/5.6 VR? I could imagine a $20,000 asking price if this were to happen.

Sure they do not have the optical coating but there is no urgent need to update either lenses as these are slow slow sellers.

I can even point to a litany of other L and non-L EF lenses that badly need an update. Canon's time is better spent updating mainstream lenses and not gear that requires a princely sum.

I am also confident that a 7D replacement will be happening this year.

 

[distant.star]

.
I think you're living in a fantasy land if you think there will be a 1DX replacement anytime in the next three years, if ever. I'm on record that it's the last top end, professional, conventional DSLR Canon will ever produce. To the extent it is upgraded, that will happen through code -- firmware.

The 1DX is so advanced at this point there is little they could realistically improve upon. What can they possibly offer that will induce high-end stills shooters to dump their $7K camera for a new $9K camera? Combine that with quickly changing technologies, and the industry is simply going in another direction altogether. Five years from now the 1DX will still be the top still camera with video capability.

The future will be video cameras with stills capability. A whole different world is emerging.