1DX Replacement

[dolina]

According to the press release from Canon USA and Canon UK the 1DX replaces both the 1D4 and 1Ds3.

The 1-Series primary market is the photo news agencies like AP, Reuters, EPA, SI and other related outfits. Everyone else is essentially secondary.

Because of the hypercompetitive nature of the news business upgrades are done often.

Businesses who find the 1-Series beyond their budget have the option of the 5 or 7 Series bodies.

The upgrade cycles I have mentioned earlier are verifiable and factual. All counterpoints I have read so far are solely based on rumors published on CR. Yes, CR's posts are somewhat accurate but only for those products & services that were released within 24-48 hours after the rumor has been published. Once that lapses the rumor is just talk for gearheads to ramble about.

It is easy to be put on record when using a handle or pseudonym.

In terms of sales volume the 1-Series represents 1% of all EOS bodies made. So the pricing and features are for the 1%.

Anyhow, I am just rumormongering on inanimate objects. Those who are looking to upgrade like myself should take my posts into consideration if they want the latest and greatest.

What I hate most is buying really expensive gear then in less than 6 months a replacement will be announced to be shipped to your door step 3 months later.

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1D body generations.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
17 months as of today
EOS-1D Mark IV http://www.dpreview.com/news/2009/10/20/canon1d4
24 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/2/22/canoneos1dmarkiii
32 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II N http://www.dpreview.com/news/2005/8/22/canoneos1dmkiin
16 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/1/29/canoneos1dmkii
28 months before replacement
EOS-1D http://www.dpreview.com/news/2001/9/26/canoneos1d

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1Ds body generations. As earlier mentioned the 1D X is the successor of the 1Ds Mark III per Canon USA and UK press release.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
50 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/8/20/canoneos1dsmarkiii
35 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/9/21/canoneos1dsmkii
24 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds http://www.dpreview.com/news/2002/9/23/canoneos1ds

Based on the above product cycle duration here are the possible product announce dates if we were to start from October 2011.

16 months - February 2013
24 months - October 2013
28 months - February 2014
32 months - June 2014
35 months - September 2014
50 months - December 2015

And to repeat pro bodies and pro lenses are often announced before major sporting events. There are two scheduled namely Winter Games on February 2014 and World Cup on June 2014.

Based on the data provided I expect at least one pro body to be announced as late as October 2013.

I further speculate that at least a total of 5 lenses will be announced/shipped this year. 3 non-L EF lens and 2 L lenses. No data on EFS or EFM lenses.

Possible candidates for upgrades are below.

1991 - TS-E45mm f/2.8
1991 - TS-E90mm f/2.8
1998 - EF 35mm f/1.4L USM
2003 - EF17-40mm f/4L USM
2004 - EF28-300mm f/3.5-5.6L IS USM
1996 - EF 135mm f/2L USM
1998 - EF100-400mm f/4.5-5.6L IS USM
1993 - EF 400mm f/5.6L USM

A EF 14-24mm f/2.8L USM is possible based on patent filings and Nikon having an equivalent that is selling well.

 

[bdunbar79]

According to the press release from Canon USA and Canon UK the 1DX replaces both the 1D4 and 1Ds3.

The 1-Series primary market is the photo news agencies like AP, Reuters, EPA, SI and other related outfits. Everyone else is essentially secondary.

Because of the hypercompetitive nature of the news business upgrades are done often.

Businesses who find the 1-Series beyond their budget have the option of the 5 or 7 Series bodies.

The upgrade cycles I have mentioned earlier are verifiable and factual. All counterpoints I have read so far are solely based on rumors published on CR. Yes, CR's posts are somewhat accurate but only for those products & services that were released within 24-48 hours after the rumor has been published. Once that lapses the rumor is just talk for gearheads to ramble about.

It is easy to be put on record when using a handle or pseudonym.

In terms of sales volume the 1-Series represents 1% of all EOS bodies made. So the pricing and features are for the 1%.

Anyhow, I am just rumormongering on inanimate objects. Those who are looking to upgrade like myself should take my posts into consideration if they want the latest and greatest.

What I hate most is buying really expensive gear then in less than 6 months a replacement will be announced to be shipped to your door step 3 months later.

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1D body generations.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
17 months as of today
EOS-1D Mark IV http://www.dpreview.com/news/2009/10/20/canon1d4
24 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/2/22/canoneos1dmarkiii
32 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II N http://www.dpreview.com/news/2005/8/22/canoneos1dmkiin
16 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/1/29/canoneos1dmkii
28 months before replacement
EOS-1D http://www.dpreview.com/news/2001/9/26/canoneos1d

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1Ds body generations. As earlier mentioned the 1D X is the successor of the 1Ds Mark III per Canon USA and UK press release.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
50 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/8/20/canoneos1dsmarkiii
35 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/9/21/canoneos1dsmkii
24 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds http://www.dpreview.com/news/2002/9/23/canoneos1ds

Based on the above product cycle duration here are the possible product announce dates if we were to start from October 2011.

16 months - February 2013
24 months - October 2013
28 months - February 2014
32 months - June 2014
35 months - September 2014
50 months - December 2015

And to repeat pro bodies and pro lenses are often announced before major sporting events. There are two scheduled namely Winter Games on February 2014 and World Cup on June 2014.

Based on the data provided I expect at least one pro body to be announced as late as October 2013.

I further speculate that at least a total of 5 lenses will be announced/shipped this year. 3 non-L EF lens and 2 L lenses. No data on EFS or EFM lenses.

Possible candidates for upgrades are below.

1991 - TS-E45mm f/2.8
1991 - TS-E90mm f/2.8
1998 - EF 35mm f/1.4L USM
2003 - EF17-40mm f/4L USM
2004 - EF28-300mm f/3.5-5.6L IS USM
1996 - EF 135mm f/2L USM
1998 - EF100-400mm f/4.5-5.6L IS USM
1993 - EF 400mm f/5.6L USM

A EF 14-24mm f/2.8L USM is possible based on patent filings and Nikon having an equivalent that is selling well.

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

 

[dolina]

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

Notice how the bodies & lenses are released months before the Summer & Winter games? And the World Cup I am referring to is the FIFA World Cup Championship that happens every four years.

The Olympics and World Cup are the most important and most important sporting events in the world. Nevermind Formula 1, nevermind NBA or even rugby world cup, cricket world cup. These are the events that requires the highest end camera and lens.

FIFA World Cup Championships
June 2010
June 2006
May 2002

Summer Olympics
September 2000
August 2004
August 2008
July 2012

Winter Olympics
February 2014
February 2010
February 2006
February 2002

Anyone else want to discredit me? ;D

 

[bdunbar79]

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

Notice how the bodies & lenses are released months before the Summer & Winter games? And the World Cup I am referring to is the FIFA World Cup Championship that happens every four years.

The Olympics and World Cup are the most important and most important sporting events in the world. Nevermind Formula 1, nevermind NBA or even rugby world cup, cricket world cup. These are the events that requires the highest end camera and lens.

FIFA World Cup Championships
June 2010
June 2006
May 2002

Summer Olympics
September 2000
August 2004
August 2008
July 2012

Winter Olympics
February 2014
February 2010
February 2006
February 2002

Anyone else want to discredit me? ;D

Oh come on, just having a little fun . No one is discrediting you. You could very well be correct. Or, the industry is going a completely different direction and we don't know what is going to happen or be developed. I'm not sure why major sporting events would warrant a MP monster, and I'm also not sure how the 1DX can be improved or why it needs improved, but who knows.

 

[dolina]

Boring Sunday afternoon. I am waiting for the polo match to start in 2 hours so I can shoot some sport shots.

I was making moves towards getting a 1DX but seeming the data points to an October announcement I am disinclined to push through with it anymore.

So my alternative now is the 5D3 which is lighter, cheaper and has more MP than the 1DX. Sure it isnt a double grip, lacks dual CF card slots and the battery life is shorter but at least the product life is expected to be good for another 2-3 years.

Sadly I have to have my 800mm serviced for it to work with the 5D3.

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

Notice how the bodies & lenses are released months before the Summer & Winter games? And the World Cup I am referring to is the FIFA World Cup Championship that happens every four years.

The Olympics and World Cup are the most important and most important sporting events in the world. Nevermind Formula 1, nevermind NBA or even rugby world cup, cricket world cup. These are the events that requires the highest end camera and lens.

FIFA World Cup Championships
June 2010
June 2006
May 2002

Summer Olympics
September 2000
August 2004
August 2008
July 2012

Winter Olympics
February 2014
February 2010
February 2006
February 2002

Anyone else want to discredit me? ;D

Oh come on, just having a little fun . No one is discrediting you. You could very well be correct. Or, the industry is going a completely different direction and we don't know what is going to happen or be developed. I'm not sure why major sporting events would warrant a MP monster, and I'm also not sure how the 1DX can be improved or why it needs improved, but who knows.

 

[bdunbar79]

I'm the same way. I complained and complained about winter sports never ending and never ending, and now that it has ended, I miss doing it, lol .

 

[Bombsight]

This thread is a lot like two roaches meeting in the middle of the night, rubbing antlers in a corner, only to move along afterwards.

 

[Atinas]

Product announcements

1Ds Mark III - Aug 20, 2007 (35 months)
1Ds Mark II - Sep 23, 2004 (24 months)
1Ds - Sep 23, 2002

So... what now? Anyway not telling anyone not to stop buying. Just saying be aware.

You conveniently leave out the data point that there is NO true update yet for 1DsMarkIII ...or if one is lax, you should at least co-opt 1Dx as an update (which Canon said it was)...which was October 2011!!! 50 Months from the 1DsIII.

Selective listing of data to argue your point doesn't always help convince anyone.

Lets take the best and worst case scenario to support your rather flimsy thesis...

Even if one assumes that 1DX is "partially" a replacement for 1DsIII, that is 50 Months from 1DsMarkIII announcement to 1DX announcement in October 2011. Which you fail to list.

Much worse, if one assumes that 1DX is not the 1DsIII update, and this true high-MP update is yet to be announced, then it is 67months and counting as of now...

Either way, you leave out a key data point.

Any further contortion of the timeline is just plain silly and can only serve you to hold on to your rather weak prediction.

No one in their right mind is expecting a replacement for 1DX anytime soon

But wait: doesn't that big a period between releases, be it 50 or 67 months, mean an update is to be announced soon?

 

[Loswr]

But wait: doesn't that big a period between releases, be it 50 or 67 months, mean an update is to be announced soon?

Not necessarily. dSLRs seem to be getting toward diminishing marginal returns in terms of upgrades. There's still product differentiation, so you can upgrade if you move up the line. There's also still a consumer base that wants 'this year's' product not 'last year's', even if the only thing that's changed is one or two minor features (like the new car market, real redesigns happen much less frequently than the annual new models). But once you've moved up the line to a 1D X, there's not much room for marginal improvements, and big ones that depend on new technology can take a while to implement.

All of which probably means a new 1-series body will be announced tomorrow, to spite me.

 

[Maui5150]

All of which probably means a new 1-series body will be announced tomorrow, to spite me.

It was announced yesterday... Guess you missed it

 

[dude]

My 1DX will arrive tomorrow. I can't wait 12 months to hope to get a camera that I need now. I am stoked!

 

[BL]

.
I think you're living in a fantasy land if you think there will be a 1DX replacement anytime in the next three years, if ever. I'm on record that it's the last top end, professional, conventional DSLR Canon will ever produce. To the extent it is upgraded, that will happen through code -- firmware.

The 1DX is so advanced at this point there is little they could realistically improve upon. What can they possibly offer that will induce high-end stills shooters to dump their $7K camera for a new $9K camera? Combine that with quickly changing technologies, and the industry is simply going in another direction altogether. Five years from now the 1DX will still be the top still camera with video capability.

The future will be video cameras with stills capability. A whole different world is emerging.

Speaking strictly as an enthusiast who does not earn a dime from my camera, the 1Dx will be the last FF camera I purchase (barring theft or some other catastrophic loss).

For stills (subjects in motion, landscape, low light), I am so pleased with the range of pictures I can take. I can't see myself ever needing a reason to upgrade to another DSLR, even if said camera is a mkII!

Bravo Canon!

 

[privatebydesign]

.
I think you're living in a fantasy land if you think there will be a 1DX replacement anytime in the next three years, if ever. I'm on record that it's the last top end, professional, conventional DSLR Canon will ever produce. To the extent it is upgraded, that will happen through code -- firmware.

The 1DX is so advanced at this point there is little they could realistically improve upon. What can they possibly offer that will induce high-end stills shooters to dump their $7K camera for a new $9K camera? Combine that with quickly changing technologies, and the industry is simply going in another direction altogether. Five years from now the 1DX will still be the top still camera with video capability.

The future will be video cameras with stills capability. A whole different world is emerging.

Well they could start by giving it the MP of one of the cameras it is supposed to have replaced, or even, as has always been the case previously, give it a slight bump, 26mp sounds sweet to me. Then:-
[list type=decimal]
[*]Improve DR
[*]Improve low iso performance
[*]Add ever more to high iso performance, some will never have enough
[*]Use dual pixel technology
[*]Build in WiFi, who doesnt use it now in a pro environment?
[*]Build in GPS, it is a $2 chip not a $400 addon
[*]Build in RT Speedlite transmitter, it won't happen but boy it would be nice to shoot with a "clean" camera every now and again
[*]The transmisive focus screen could give a lot more info
[*]Make it lighter
[/list]

To name just my most important top few.

You can go on record all you like, play King Kanute, the next 1D is comming and it is due to announce this year, the market that buys these cameras in bulk needs to buy new cameras, it is just a product cycle, they will be using them at the Olympics and World Cup, just like they always do. We will start to see blurred pictures of mystery bodies, I'd be taking pictures of the remote controlled cameras at the major venues to see what is comming later this year or at the latest early next year.

 

[CarlTN]

.
I think you're living in a fantasy land if you think there will be a 1DX replacement anytime in the next three years, if ever. I'm on record that it's the last top end, professional, conventional DSLR Canon will ever produce. To the extent it is upgraded, that will happen through code -- firmware.

The 1DX is so advanced at this point there is little they could realistically improve upon. What can they possibly offer that will induce high-end stills shooters to dump their $7K camera for a new $9K camera? Combine that with quickly changing technologies, and the industry is simply going in another direction altogether. Five years from now the 1DX will still be the top still camera with video capability.

The future will be video cameras with stills capability. A whole different world is emerging.

Well they could start by giving it the MP of one of the cameras it is supposed to have replaced, or even, as has always been the case previously, give it a slight bump, 26mp sounds sweet to me. Then:-
[list type=decimal]
[*]Improve DR
[*]Improve low iso performance
[*]Add ever more to high iso performance, some will never have enough
[*]Use dual pixel technology
[*]Build in WiFi, who doesnt use it now in a pro environment?
[*]Build in GPS, it is a $2 chip not a $400 addon
[*]Build in RT Speedlite transmitter, it won't happen but boy it would be nice to shoot with a "clean" camera every now and again
[*]The transmisive focus screen could give a lot more info
[*]Make it lighter
[/list]

To name just my most important top few.

You can go on record all you like, play King Kanute, the next 1D is comming and it is due to announce this year, the market that buys these cameras in bulk needs to buy new cameras, it is just a product cycle, they will be using them at the Olympics and World Cup, just like they always do. We will start to see blurred pictures of mystery bodies, I'd be taking pictures of the remote controlled cameras at the major venues to see what is comming later this year or at the latest early next year.

+1 !! I'll go on record right now and say that I plan to buy the replacement to the 1DX, even if it doesn't come out until white dwarf stars become black dwarf stars...quintillions of years from now!! Things will be darker then, so the improved low light ability will be appreciated!

 

[ewg963]

These are exciting times for photography. I think we'll see a new 1D body in the very near future but for right now I just weeks from getting that 1DX. Does anyone have the link to the mysterious taped up Canon body attached to a 400 2.8 glass in the winter games? I'd love to see it... just curious.
Cheers
Eddie

 

[ewg963]

.
I think you're living in a fantasy land if you think there will be a 1DX replacement anytime in the next three years, if ever. I'm on record that it's the last top end, professional, conventional DSLR Canon will ever produce. To the extent it is upgraded, that will happen through code -- firmware.

The 1DX is so advanced at this point there is little they could realistically improve upon. What can they possibly offer that will induce high-end stills shooters to dump their $7K camera for a new $9K camera? Combine that with quickly changing technologies, and the industry is simply going in another direction altogether. Five years from now the 1DX will still be the top still camera with video capability.

The future will be video cameras with stills capability. A whole different world is emerging.

Well they could start by giving it the MP of one of the cameras it is supposed to have replaced, or even, as has always been the case previously, give it a slight bump, 26mp sounds sweet to me. Then:-
[list type=decimal]
[*]Improve DR
[*]Improve low iso performance
[*]Add ever more to high iso performance, some will never have enough
[*]Use dual pixel technology
[*]Build in WiFi, who doesnt use it now in a pro environment?
[*]Build in GPS, it is a $2 chip not a $400 addon
[*]Build in RT Speedlite transmitter, it won't happen but boy it would be nice to shoot with a "clean" camera every now and again
[*]The transmisive focus screen could give a lot more info
[*]Make it lighter
[/list]

To name just my most important top few.

You can go on record all you like, play King Kanute, the next 1D is comming and it is due to announce this year, the market that buys these cameras in bulk needs to buy new cameras, it is just a product cycle, they will be using them at the Olympics and World Cup, just like they always do. We will start to see blurred pictures of mystery bodies, I'd be taking pictures of the remote controlled cameras at the major venues to see what is comming later this year or at the latest early next year.

+100000

 

[ewg963]

My 1DX will arrive tomorrow. I can't wait 12 months to hope to get a camera that I need now. I am stoked!

You should be... enjoy!!!

 

[dude]

My 1DX will arrive tomorrow. I can't wait 12 months to hope to get a camera that I need now. I am stoked!

You should be... enjoy!!!

Best camera I have ever used. I really wondered if having a 5Diii was going to set me up for a less excited feeling. Not the case. While both cameras seem to give me same photo quality, there is no doubt AI Servo is a MONSTER on the 1DX. 12 FPS where 10 out of 12 frames are sharp, wow!

Too many features to name but I wish my 5Diii could save settings to the card. Biggest complaint against the 5diii now.

 

[ewg963]

My 1DX will arrive tomorrow. I can't wait 12 months to hope to get a camera that I need now. I am stoked!

You should be... enjoy!!!

Best camera I have ever used. I really wondered if having a 5Diii was going to set me up for a less excited feeling. Not the case. While both cameras seem to give me same photo quality, there is no doubt AI Servo is a MONSTER on the 1DX. 12 FPS where 10 out of 12 frames are sharp, wow!

Too many features to name but I wish my 5Diii could save settings to the card. Biggest complaint against the 5diii now.

Hello Dude,
Wow you have both? Did you get a chance to put the DX through its paces in low light shooting yet?

 

[dude]

Yes I do. Very fortunate. I have put it through a high school basketball game so I will allow that to qualify as poor light albeit not a dark setting.

Autofocus is amazing. Quality of images seen from my 5Diii and 1DX are very similar. A little less noise on the 1DX files but nothing I would classify as amazing.

My 1DX will arrive tomorrow. I can't wait 12 months to hope to get a camera that I need now. I am stoked!

You should be... enjoy!!!

Best camera I have ever used. I really wondered if having a 5Diii was going to set me up for a less excited feeling. Not the case. While both cameras seem to give me same photo quality, there is no doubt AI Servo is a MONSTER on the 1DX. 12 FPS where 10 out of 12 frames are sharp, wow!

Too many features to name but I wish my 5Diii could save settings to the card. Biggest complaint against the 5diii now.

Hello Dude,
Wow you have both? Did you get a chance to put the DX through its paces in low light shooting yet?