Being a cheapskate I like to buy second hand.. I got my old 30D second hand and will probably get my next body second hand.
The shutter count is an important feature on any sales comments. However as an engineer I know how you get a usually get a "bathtub" failure rate curve.
Now I found a website showing shutter life:
http://www.olegkikin.com/shutterlife/canon_eos5dmkii.htm
I chose the 5DII as I've been wanting to get one.. just need to find the cash. Anyway what's interesting is that there appear to be several cameras failing at low shutter count. So I worked out from the data what the chance was that a known used working camera would fail in the next 10,000 shots.
(aplogies for the formatting.. the pertinent column is the right most, being the chance of failure in next 10k shots)
Number of shots on camera Recorded working Recorded failed Cameras surviving Failures in next 10k shots Chance of failure in next 10k shots
100 0 1 1526 26.3 0.0172
200 1 1 1525 25.5 0.0167
500 7 2 1523 24.2 0.0159
1000 3 2 1514 23.3 0.0154
2000 3 2 1509 23.8 0.0157
5000 32 2 1504 45.0 0.0299
10000 67 17 1470 13.0 0.0088
20000 114 13 1386 10.7 0.0077
35000 148 16 1259 5.3 0.0042
50000 122 8 1095 3.4 0.0031
100000 296 17 965 1.2 0.0012
150000 262 6 652 1.5 0.0023
250000 233 15 384 0.6 0.0016
500000 93 15 136 0.1 0.0006
1000000 17 4 28 0.0 0.0011
2.00E+006 4 3 7
By the looks of things I need to look above 50k shutter actuations.. and there's nothing to be feared by looking well beyond.
The shutter count is an important feature on any sales comments. However as an engineer I know how you get a usually get a "bathtub" failure rate curve.
Now I found a website showing shutter life:
http://www.olegkikin.com/shutterlife/canon_eos5dmkii.htm
I chose the 5DII as I've been wanting to get one.. just need to find the cash. Anyway what's interesting is that there appear to be several cameras failing at low shutter count. So I worked out from the data what the chance was that a known used working camera would fail in the next 10,000 shots.
(aplogies for the formatting.. the pertinent column is the right most, being the chance of failure in next 10k shots)
Number of shots on camera Recorded working Recorded failed Cameras surviving Failures in next 10k shots Chance of failure in next 10k shots
100 0 1 1526 26.3 0.0172
200 1 1 1525 25.5 0.0167
500 7 2 1523 24.2 0.0159
1000 3 2 1514 23.3 0.0154
2000 3 2 1509 23.8 0.0157
5000 32 2 1504 45.0 0.0299
10000 67 17 1470 13.0 0.0088
20000 114 13 1386 10.7 0.0077
35000 148 16 1259 5.3 0.0042
50000 122 8 1095 3.4 0.0031
100000 296 17 965 1.2 0.0012
150000 262 6 652 1.5 0.0023
250000 233 15 384 0.6 0.0016
500000 93 15 136 0.1 0.0006
1000000 17 4 28 0.0 0.0011
2.00E+006 4 3 7
By the looks of things I need to look above 50k shutter actuations.. and there's nothing to be feared by looking well beyond.