Except we're rapidly approaching a tipping point where Canon wants us all to join RF, and quickly. They won't force us, but goodness knows they can overtly play favorites with new bodies and refresh cycles. RF will be more frequently updated and RF will lead new generations of bodies and have us wait and hope for an EF equivalent that may never arrive. Each cycle of that peels some more of us off to RF.
I just think simultaneous is a super friendly move for folks like me. Minimize buyers' remorse and you increase your chances of getting my money. But I'm not sure you can win the market with that approach.
- A
I guess I just disagree with the basic premise that Canon is able and willing to manipulate the market in favor of mirrorless. It seems like a very risky strategy in a shrinking market to push about half of your customers to a new format, especially when you have have essentially cut everyone loose with the RF mount. Yes, Canon wants to sell mirrorless cameras and they want to sell expensive RF lenses. But, I'm pretty sure they have done some serious cost-benefit analysis on neglecting/abandoning current DSLR users. The probably have a pretty good idea of what percentage they can convert and what percentage they can't. And, let's admit that they also want to sell DSLRs and EF lenses -- which are probably much more profitable now anyway.
Even if they feel they can convert 80% of full frame DSLR users to mirrorless, I doubt they want to lose that remaining 20%. Everyone says "Canon is going to force us to..." But, last I checked, they don't have a gun to my head.
I'm an R user. I like the system. But, there are things that DSLRs do better. Maybe Canon can close that gap with the next generation of R cameras (and until the R5 is released and we see how it works in the field, we won't know). As an R user, I'm skeptical. But, even if they achieve DSLR speed and quality autofocus and OVF responsiveness, I'm sure they realize that there is a lag between having a product available and having customers adopt that product. The other point I keep trying to make is that DSLR development is not going to be frozen. The 1Dx shows that. We have yet to see how it performs, but if it comes close to the promise, I think it could provide some evidence that Canon is telling the truth when they say they intend to continue to develop both systems.
You say Canon wants us to join the mirrorless market. But it's also possible Canon wants us to have at least two bodies -- mirrorless for what it does best and DSLR for what it does best. In fact, they have probably figured out that there are people like me who bought the RF 24-105 because it was more convenient than constantly switching to an adapter when changing lenses from one body to another.
Now, no one can decipher the mysteries of Canon's marketing and development strategies, so I'm certainly not saying a simultaneous release will happen. Just, from my perspective, I think it might be the strategy that carries the least risk.