dilbert said:
Last time I saw a graph from CIPA, DSLR sales were in decline and mirrorless sales were flat.
Are there any newer graphs that show DSLR sales either plateauing or rising? Or mirrorless falling?
yeah, and the scales are way off too most cases.
the marketshare really hasn't changed that much over the course of 4 years.
some proponents like to exaggerate aspects but the reality is, that sony switch off it's mass DSLR shipment's, that would account for around and 10-18% drop in SLR shipments.
since it's shipments, one has to be aware that both canon AND nikon both have decreased their inventory on hand and ship more on demand then they did on the past.
CIPA started recording MILC / DSLR I think in the beginning of 2012 with 19% marketshare.
that did not have Fuji, Canon as the two notables, and sony was still shipping SLT's in mass quanitities
zip forward to the end of 2015.
Sony has flipped it's 13-18% marketshare over to mirrorless. Canon is now shipping MILC's, so is Fuji.
the total marketshare? 25%. as a matter of fact, since Sony flipped over to full time mirrorless in conjunction really with the A7 release (when you stopped seeing the junk slt's floating around) accounted for around a 3% shipment marketshare "step" and after that "step" it's basically been plateaued.
there's a few obvious "spikes" in shipments, surrounding new products - but some seem to be attributed to canon mass shipping versus any real trend.
so you do the math on that and tell me if it's really growing to you or even remaining static.
as a pure precentage, both have slide from their 2012 shipments, and keep in mind that we're also not including the fact that this is FOB prices, mirrorless at least in some areas of the world are viciously slashed in prices to compete in the market.
DSLR's have fallen the most percentage wise, however if you account for sony's SLT share, the percentages are actually not far off.
2012
2013 85% 84%
2014 65% 83% (18%)
2015*56% 78% (21%)
Note that in late 2013, sony flipped from SLT to mirrorless. both are within a 9-11% delta flip.
if you note, we see the biggest drop between 2013-2014 when sony essentially exited the DSLR market.
also 2015 data only includes 11 months, so DSLR may have stablized from 2014-15, now that the impact of sony is more static.
also consider these are shipments.
Shipments are also tied to new products. canon and nikon release most of thier cameras on three year or more cycles,so there is more of a ebb and flow to their shipments. where with so many companies in the small 25% niche, they are shipping on average 9 TIMES the new products per year than canon or nikon are.
and even with that, we're not seeing a considerable change.
and then you consider mount marketshare which has an big impact on whether people switch systems. the F and EF mount are growing at nearly three times the rate as all mirrorless mounts combined.
Even today.
that increases the used market, and the more locked in because just about any DSLR is "good enough" for most people now.
(there was alot of edits to this.. sorry)
