Your predictions (unfortunately) seem reasonable according to the existing EF L super teles.
I'd bet they'll come eventually, but there are 4 lenses under $600 USD now - 24-105 (f/4-7.1), 85 f/2, 50 f/1.8, 35 f/1.8. I think the bigger question is which lenses will come in at a bargain price, and whether or not those specific lenses will suit the need.
You are not alone at all. The CV 40 1.2 is my favorite lens, though I couldn't deal with MF and Sony. Samyang 45/1.8 is good too and I'd settle for that. But a nice compact fast 40 would be amazing. I was so crushed when Sigma announced the 40 ART. Was hoping it would just be a longer 35 1.4..... nope. Anywa we'll see
Not sure what you mean by "drinking Straws", but I would really like to see a high quality 200-500 / 200-600. On the wide end, I would think they could maintain f4 @ 200mm since they do that with the the EF 200-400 and the new mount should help a bit. If they could even do 200-500 f4 - f5.6 (maybe f6.3) with similar quality tot he EF 200-400 I would be very happy. I hope this zoom with the EF III weight loss program to get the lens under 7lbs. I wonder if we are going to see any EF 400 f4 IS DO equivalent RF lenses?
I'm sure the EF 40 works great on RF bodies.... I have one but have never bothered to put it on. It's sharp, but too slow and has nasty busy bokeh
I'm curious how Canon will address Sony's 12-24 f/2.8. I don't think the market will be large, but I remember rumors of the 11-24 f/4 becoming a 10-24 f/4 for RF, which would be more practical. Canon could also do a wide fast prime for astro.
I understand that, but always the companies make niche products. A lot of astrophotographers would be absolutely in love with a lens with this specifications and L image quality.
