Canon will release a trio of RF mount wide angle L prime lenses in the first half of 2023

[David - Sydney]

I simply don't see Canon releasing a zoom that goes past 500mm natively; I would expect at most a super-expensive supertele zoom like the recent patents, along the lines of the 200-400+1.4. They added 100mm on to their standard L long zoom (100-500 replacing the EF 100-400L) and both that and the consumer RF 100-400 are compatible with teleconverters, so I think they will feel it's covered adequately.

I tend to agree especially with the 600/800mm f11 being so light/compact/cheap.

 

[David - Sydney]

If I was a Canon exec, I would set up something like Canon Professional Services and send requests for opinions directly to people already invested Canon products

CPS is run very differently in different countries. For Australia, it is only open to professionals ie with business setup and a minimum of 2 bodies. Note that they updated the "1D" description to include R3 but not "5D" to "5D/R5". Professionals clearly must not own R6 let alone R which uses the same 5Div sensor.
https://cps.canon.com.au/cps/membership/qualification
Even if I put in a business number and 1 x 5D body with 3+ lenses, it says I don't qualify!

My point is that CPS Australia is quite limited and they don't need/want feedback from cashed-up amateurs or even professionals with one body.

CPS in other regions seems to be much easier to join and Canon could reach those members easily.
Neuro has mentioned in the past that Canon uses the warranty cards for people to send back their information and current kit but those aren't used in all countries and assumes that there is a reasonable % sending them back. I don't send them back for any product simply because local legislation covers virtually everything anyway.

I am sure that Canon accesses their professional users well and have focus groups but I am less convinced that feedback from their non-professional use base is substantial. Reseller feedback especially in Japan would one source though and sales figures.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I mean you're cherry picking statistics since most of Canon's share comes from the 5D IV and now discontinued M series but sure keep on picking!

Lol, no, most of Canon’s sales are not of the 5DIV. And if you think I’m cherry picking data, you know nothing about data analysis. We’re discussing camera sales and you brought up and made predictive statements about market share, and I’m talking about total global digital camera sales by manufacturer per year, i.e., global market share. Data don’t get less cherry-picked than that. What would you like, data on total sales of cameras and cars combined? Sheesh.

Cherry picking would be something like most full frame digital cameras sold in one country over a two-month period. Sony actually did a press release like that once.

Feel to try again. I won’t expect coherent logic, so I won’t be disappointed.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Before you start with the insults, here is my opinion.
I love my Canon kit, but I also like my Sony kit.
Sony has some things Canon does not, and Canon has some things Sony does not.
To say that Canon Dominates the market, (and I know you're going to bring up their ILC sales, which includes all the DSLR bodies they still sell like the Txi series...etc,etc) is not a fair assessment as the future of photography technology is the mirrorless market and both Canon and Sony are pretty close to each other.

They are both market leaders and I think are both neck in neck right now in terms of body features and lens design.
One will release a new body this year, the other will release a body the year after. It is a competitive market with both leaders pushing each other at the moment. I love this competition because I am able to get some pretty awesome premium features that would have only been saved for a higher tier body in a lower more affordable body.

That being said, IF a professional who wants or needs a feature or lens now, they will not settle for less and will not be brand loyal and will purchase what they need. I am a prime example of this. I needed wide glass and went with the only other option I was able to purchase. I would prefer to stick to the RF line, I love my R6 and patiently waiting for an R5ii to come out to make the upgrade, but I am still waiting for a 35 1.2/1.4 and a 14 1.8 to replace my Sony GM's.

I was going to move my R6's to R5's as I am slowly consolidating everything to Canon, but since the R6ii's were released, I chose to wait for the R5ii, I would have loved to wait for the R1, but:
1: I have to wait until 2024, as of today my A1 is my prime work horse I use and it works amazing. By the time the R1 is released, there might be an A1ii which would be another deciding factor to contend with between the brand war.
2: I prefer a smaller more portable body and I can only assume the R1 is going to be a large gripped body.

A professional who makes money in this field can swap gear around and play with multiple systems. However, someone new or a hobbyist who has been waiting and waiting and waiting, might not be so loyal as to continue to wait.
Cannon will never die in doom, but one thing I have noticed is a lot of these youtubers are all running Sony gear. So as a new photographer, or videographer, guess what they might be enticed to purchase as their first system and grow with. The R5c is a perfect example of how it should be on the Netflix approved video list in order to compete with Sony's FX3. Just because the current generation is loyal to Canon because of their history, does not mean future generations will be.
The smartest thing I think Canon did was release the R6ii. It gave way to a ton of used R6's that are a cheaper viable option to push people to the Canon ecosystem. IF they do the R5ii in the spring, Another wave of used R5's will hit the market and push DSLR users to mirrorless and RF glass.

Canon has caught up with Sony's mirrorless market in many regards, but this lens thing is still a pain to deal with. What is interesting is the crazy sales on RF L glass right now. I sometimes wonder what the actual margins are on the manufacturing of the glass.

A point-by-point rebuttal is moot (and in fact, I agree with many of your points). @nunataks specifically brought up market share, and I responded with data on market share that show his/her conclusions to be fallacious.

If you want to compare features and design to decide who is ‘dominant’, that’s a fool’s errand because the features and designs that appeal to people are personal decisions that are linked to their personal needs and expectations. Thanks for sharing your opinion, but it is irrelevant to my reply.

 

[neuroanatomist]

If I was a Canon exec, I would set up something like Canon Professional Services and send requests for opinions directly to people already invested Canon products

Nonsense. Perusing a forum full of randos posting their opinions is a much better way to conduct market research. CPS feedback, targeted marketing surveys (I’ve received several over the years), analysis of purchasing patterns and buyer demographics over time, all of that crap is a distant third fiddle compared to reading posts on CR forum…especially posts by well-informed people like @Snapster.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I do not know what country you are in, but I have had CPS since the begining of the program. It is 250 a year here I believe. Other than front of the line repairs, which is a god send at times, the rest of CPS is a total joke. The rewards page on CPS has not worked in 2 years here.

One main point of CPS is the gear lending, member direct and even more importantly from the Canon representation at major sporting events. Knowing what pros want to try and actually use is good information. Granted, with the ongoing decline of the professional photography pool, those data are becoming less important.

 

[takesome1]

CPS feedback, targeted marketing surveys (I’ve received several over the years),

Could these be CPS point based surveys or maybe a Canon engineer seeding a survey with a "would buy" for his project.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Could these be CPS point based surveys or maybe a Canon engineer seeding a survey with a "would buy" for his project.

I’m not a CPS member. I have no idea how Canon selects their survey recipients. The questions were pretty broad, most of the registration card info recapitulated (demographics like age/income, gear owned), asking about desired features for bodies (multiple choice checkboxes with options like faster AF, higher frame rate, more DR, etc.), other surveys were focused (pun intended) on desired lenses and their features.

 

[David - Sydney]

Nonsense. Perusing a forum full of randos posting their opinions is a much better way to conduct market research. CPS feedback, targeted marketing surveys (I’ve received several over the years), analysis of purchasing patterns and buyer demographics over time, all of that crap is a distant third fiddle compared to reading posts on CR forum…especially posts by well-informed people like @Snapster.

Well, I don't think that your comment is sarcastic!
As one of those "randos" I resemble that remark (nod to the Three Stooges).

As a focus group, we aren't bad...
- Global spread of users with multiple bodies/lenses within the Canon ecosystem ie significant investment in their kit
- Most with some past or current experience of other ecosystems
- Very likely to buy future Canon products
- An above average level of skill in different photographic genres.
- A mix of professionals (however you like to define it), prosumers and casual users.
- Some users will excellent knowledge of technical niches from patents to optical physics to logistics and data/company financial analysis
- Reasonably self moderated to reduce or at least challenge outlier statements
- Much better than cesspools like DPR or others

And most importantly...cheaper than a focus group

 

[neuroanatomist]

Well, I don't think that your comment is sarcastic!
As one of those "randos" I resemble that remark (nod to the Three Stooges).

As a focus group, we aren't bad...
- Global spread of users with multiple bodies/lenses within the Canon ecosystem ie significant investment in their kit
- Most with some past or current experience of other ecosystems
- Very likely to buy future Canon products
- An above average level of skill in different photographic genres.
- A mix of professionals (however you like to define it), prosumers and casual users.
- Some users will excellent knowledge of technical niches from patents to optical physics to logistics and data/company financial analysis
- Reasonably self moderated to reduce or at least challenge outlier statements
- Much better than cesspools like DPR or others

And most importantly...cheaper than a focus group

I don't disagree with your characterizations (and to be clear, I also count myself among the randos). We certainly don't represent the broad ILC market. A self-selected group of people with a strong technical interest in gear may bot represent Canon's major high-end market, either, but that's closer at least.

However, I don't think Canon pays attention to CR forum. Granted, it may have changed recently but a few years back a mod indicated he'd polled the IPs used to access the site, and only one of the tens of thousands was from a Canon-registered address (it was Canon USA, not HQ), and that access was a one-off. Heck, it could even have been me, I used the free WiFi in the lobby at the Branchburg, NJ service center when I was waiting for the shutter recall service on my 1D X.

 

[David - Sydney]

I don't disagree with your characterizations (and to be clear, I also count myself among the randos). We certainly don't represent the broad ILC market. A self-selected group of people with a strong technical interest in gear may bot represent Canon's major high-end market, either, but that's closer at least.

However, I don't think Canon pays attention to CR forum. Granted, it may have changed recently but a few years back a mod indicated he'd polled the IPs used to access the site, and only one of the tens of thousands was from a Canon-registered address (it was Canon USA, not HQ), and that access was a one-off. Heck, it could even have been me, I used the free WiFi in the lobby at the Branchburg, NJ service center when I was waiting for the shutter recall service on my 1D X.

Actually, you would think that Canon would monitor it to see where the leaks/rumours are coming from!
Whether deliberate leaks or accidental or malicious.
The CR2/3 rumours are certainly fodder for the wider Canon community of forums from facebook to youtubers and other websites.

I use a VPN that currently is via Japan so IP addresses aren't always useful but it would still be interesting for the mods to do a simple check.... it only takes one

 

[neuroanatomist]

Actually, you would think that Canon would monitor it to see where the leaks/rumours are coming from!
Whether deliberate leaks or accidental or malicious.
The CR2/3 rumours are certainly fodder for the wider Canon community of forums from facebook to youtubers and other websites.

Main page, maybe. But the forums are something of a morass.

 

[Kiton]

I think you're being very hard on this lens (which is not an L, I should add) - Hans at Optical Limits is enthusiastic (Highly recommended) about it's optical performance:

"... the Canon RF 85mm f/2 STM IS macro is capable of delivering outstanding image quality. It's already very sharp at f/2 - even on a high megapixel body - and it's about as sharp as it gets at f/4. Lateral CAs are negligible. There's a slight degree of pincushion distortion but image auto-correction can eliminate the traces without significant side effects. A vignetting of 2 f-stops at f/2 is in line with other lenses in this class so an activated auto-correction is a good idea here."

I can't comment on it's video performance, but for a lens of this price and specs, it looks pretty impressive to me.

I am actually not that hard on the lens, I like the lens. but I want a faster focusing lens for general use. They have 2 $3,000 plus (locally) 85 1.2, they can have 2 85 f1.8 gen lens. It is the company that I am hard on. Justifiably. The biggest newspaper in town bought 2x R3 and glass for most of the team (14 staffers) and most of the guys feel the same as I do, love the cameras, could push the company managers over Niagara Falls in an instant.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

As a focus group, we aren't bad...

I am not sure Canon hearing that they are DOOOOMED over and over again will help their business decisions very much.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I am not sure Canon hearing that they are DOOOOMED over and over again will help their business decisions very much.

Not only that, I suspect it means that if they do peruse the forums here, they'd rapidly get the impression that many posters here are clueless about reality and reach the conclusion that there is not sufficient business-relevant wheat to be gleaned here from among all the asinine chaff.

 

[nunataks]

Lol, no, most of Canon’s sales are not of the 5DIV. And if you think I’m cherry picking data, you know nothing about data analysis. We’re discussing camera sales and you brought up and made predictive statements about market share, and I’m talking about total global digital camera sales by manufacturer per year, i.e., global market share. Data don’t get less cherry-picked than that. What would you like, data on total sales of cameras and cars combined? Sheesh.

Cherry picking would be something like most full frame digital cameras sold in one country over a two-month period. Sony actually did a press release like that once.

Feel to try again. I won’t expect coherent logic, so I won’t be disappointed.

Since you'd like to resort to insults instead of actual data, here's some that I very quickly Googled:

10 top-selling mirrorless cameras in 2022 so far: Canon is still the daddy

Canon owns the top 3 spots in 2022's best-selling mirrorless cameras in Japan so far – and APS-C bodies rule the roost

www.digitalcameraworld.com

Notice that the Canon cameras on the list are outdated (the M series is dead and the RP is on its way out and heavily discounted) but sure let me know how new and improved Canon products are selling well still! They're hanging on to old stuff that is still selling, but won't be for long.

 

[koenkooi]

Since you'd like to resort to insults instead of actual data, here's some that I very quickly Googled:

10 top-selling mirrorless cameras in 2022 so far: Canon is still the daddy

Canon owns the top 3 spots in 2022's best-selling mirrorless cameras in Japan so far – and APS-C bodies rule the roost

www.digitalcameraworld.com

Notice that the Canon cameras on the list are outdated (the M series is dead and the RP is on its way out and heavily discounted) but sure let me know how new and improved Canon products are selling well still! They're hanging on to old stuff that is still selling, but won't be for long.

So you’re saying that old crap from Canon outsells shiny new stuff from the rest?

 

[neuroanatomist]

Since you'd like to resort to insults instead of actual data, here's some that I very quickly Googled:

10 top-selling mirrorless cameras in 2022 so far: Canon is still the daddy

Canon owns the top 3 spots in 2022's best-selling mirrorless cameras in Japan so far – and APS-C bodies rule the roost

www.digitalcameraworld.com

Notice that the Canon cameras on the list are outdated (the M series is dead and the RP is on its way out and heavily discounted) but sure let me know how new and improved Canon products are selling well still! They're hanging on to old stuff that is still selling, but won't be for long.

And you accuse me of cherry-picking data? Geez. That article is based on BCN data, which represent about half of the retailers in Japan, which comprises less than 10% of the global mirrorless market, which comprises about 60% of the ILC market. In other words, your 'data' are a cherry-picked summary of about 3% of the ILC market. For a 6-month period. And those data confirm that Canon is still on top (though the recent BCN data show some Sony cameras in the top spots). But you conclude Canon is going to lose market share.

Well, as I said – I did not expect a logically coherent response, and obviously I set the bar at the right level.

 

[nunataks]

And you accuse me of cherry-picking data? Geez. That article is based on BCN data, which represent about half of the retailers in Japan, which comprises less than 10% of the global mirrorless market, which comprises about 60% of the ILC market. In other words, your 'data' are a cherry-picked summary of about 3% of the ILC market. For a 6-month period. And those data confirm that Canon is still on top (though the recent BCN data show some Sony cameras in the top spots). But you conclude Canon is going to lose market share.

Well, as I said – I did not expect a logically coherent response, and obviously I set the bar at the right level.

Again, insults just show that you're not confident about your point and the fact that I said that of course they're currently on top but their refusal to innovate will hurt them in the long run is still accurate, which you of course did not comprehend. Old and nearly discontinued cameras won't last too long - and they don't exactly have great stuff out to replace those models once sales dry up, while other brands do.

I'll give you a few minutes to try and figure that one out, but it's ok if you can't come up with a good response - I'm sure you tried!

 

[neuroanatomist]

Again, insults just show that you're not confident about your point and the fact that I said that of course they're currently on top but their refusal to innovate will hurt them in the long run is still accurate, which you of course did not comprehend. Old and nearly discontinued cameras won't last too long - and they don't exactly have great stuff out to replace those models once sales dry up, while other brands do.

I'll give you a few minutes to try and figure that one out, but it's ok if you can't come up with a good response - I'm sure you tried!

I remember a decade ago, the oh-so-wise pundits here DRoned on and on about how Nikon was DRubbing Canon’s sensor DR, and how Canon’s refusal to innovate with their sensor design meant they would soon lose market share.

News flash: they didn’t. They gained.

Your predictions, like your interpretation of the current sales numbers, are hollow. But go ahead and have another run at that football, Charlie. I’m sure Lucy will leave it on the ground for you this time.