Death of DSLR?

[Kit.]

Time will show. I feel the oldies everywhere are resistant to change. Remember when digital was introduced the old timers stuck in their thinking insisted film was the only way?

Which exactly "oldies" did that? Can you provide any reference, or are you just talking BS?

What I remember is that the first Canon digital camera that was comparable in IQ to 135 format ISO 100 film was 1Ds. Still, the vast majority of digital "enthusiasts" were unable to afford this camera, were buying inferior cameras that were taking inferior pictures, because, as they were saying, digital was "the future".

 

[takesome1]

"Stuck up" for pointing out an observable fact? At least try and understand the point before criticising it, eh? Or would I be "stuck up" for observing that I wouldn't really want a dog-crap sandwich for my lunch?

It depends on who you went to lunch with.

 

[Don Haines]

It’s not the claim that mirrorless will take over that bothers me, it is the claim of the sudden death of the DSLR. I think that it will be a gradual process, just like film and digital.....

 

[Sporgon]

It’s not the claim that mirrorless will take over that bothers me, it is the claim of the sudden death of the DSLR. I think that it will be a gradual process, just like film and digital.....

To be honest I don’t think the “death” of the DSLR will be gradual: I don’t think it will happen at all because in the time that it would take for larger DSLRs to “die off” there probably will be a genuine paradigm shift in photography that will make mirrorless cameras look as out of date as reflex ones.

The reflex camera will always have certain advantages over mirrorless: you are looking through the lens optically and this doesn’t require power to be active. (Ignoring the liquid crystal power consumption which is virtually nothing).

It really depends if the manufacturers try and drive the consumer down the mirrorless route. I can see this happening on small cameras, indeed it has happened to me with the M5. If Canon had offered the SL2 with a good metal build and a larger, excellent viewfinder using a pentaprism (aka 7Dii / Pentax KD etc) I’d definitely have bought one instead of the M5. But Canon have esthetically positioned the reflex SL2 as a cheapish beginners camera ( though totally capable I know) and the M5 more up market. Which is annoying, for me.

 

[jolyonralph]

It’s not the claim that mirrorless will take over that bothers me, it is the claim of the sudden death of the DSLR. I think that it will be a gradual process, just like film and digital.....

Of course. But at some point Canon will decide that they won't design another new DSLR and just keep selling the existing models until they are no longer viable to sell. And that point will be some point within the next ten years - some people think it could be as soon as 3 years away, others are more cautious.

 

[Don Haines]

Of course. But at some point Canon will decide that they won't design another new DSLR and just keep selling the existing models until they are no longer viable to sell. And that point will be some point within the next ten years - some people think it could be as soon as 3 years away, others are more cautious.

I don’t think that it is an A or B situation...... while I agree that the majority of DSLRs will be mirrorless, I think that there will be a few specialized mirrored cameras in production

 

[neuroanatomist]

If mirrorless was not going to be the way forward, Canon would not have launched it.

If full frame DSLRs were not going to be the way forward, Canon would not have launched them. Well, that seems to be your logic...or at least, what passes for it in your mind.

Why did Canon launch FF DSLRs? Same reason they launched MILCs. Because there is a market segment for them. The mere existence of a market segment doesn't mean that segment will become dominant.

Even if it does (that's IF, not when), it will be a long time until DSLRs exit the market. If DSLRs comprise 30-40% of the market, they will continue to be developed alongside MILCs.

Have a look at the trends over time. MILCs really aren't growing all that much – they dropped from 2012 to 2013, and it took until 2017 to regain 2012 levels (and some of that was the bump from the earthquake-caused sensor shortage in 2016). DSLRs are dropping – that's the combination of smartphones and a mature market. But the decline in DSLRs sales appears to be leveling off. That means it's a reasonable possibility that the ILC market will end up with both DSLRs and MILCs for a long time, until some paradigm-shifting change occurs that clobbers the ILC market.

 

[clicstudio]

With Nikon launching it's mirrorless and Canon to follow soon, it seems like to me - maybe I am not the only one, that soon mirror slappers will soon belong in museums and studios of obstinate photographers.

Reason for this thinking: Neither of these companies would make mirrorless cameras unless they thought they would be better then older technology. Simple.

Well I took the bait and I am hooked on mirrorless. I got a Sony Alpha 7r III which I hated at first and was going to return in favor of my 1DX Mark II but, not only I am keeping it, but I am selling my 1DX II. The quality is just too impressive compared to the 1DX II. Not only the MP but the Dynamic Range is just astonishing. The focus is flawless. It never misses.. The EVF takes time to get used to and it needs some tweaking and the ergonomics are horrible but after using it for a month and being able to customize ALL buttons and dials to my preference, even the G button on the Lens itself for "playback", I am sold. I love the swivel screen, I wish it swiveled 90 degrees downwards as well but it is a lot more sturdy than the flimsy one on a 6D Mark II, for example.
One very important thing that makes a lot of sense, specially for long exposures, is the lack of mirror slap and shutter action that prevents the camera shake. I never seen steadier and sharper photos in muy life. In fact, I Never seen this quality before, ever... In 17 years using Canon, I switched to Sony because technology moves a lot faster than Canon seems to think.
I hope to see something amazing from Canon Mirrorless after Photokina.
I hope they don't stick with EF mount. It's time for something new. People cling to the old stuff they own, because it's already paid for and it would mean buying new but, isn't that what new is supposed to be? All new? Why have a 2018 Mirrorless camera with a 2010 lens? Dumb in my opinion. I agree with Nikon's new Z cameras and the new Mount. If u are gonna get the very best, u need to have the best combo.
I am extremely happy with my A7R III. It has changed a lot of things for me and it has improved the way I shoot. I was too comfortable with the 1DX II but also limited by it. The Sony opened up a completely new world for me. Just knowing -exactly- what you are shooting through the EVF is a game changer, and then the Dynamic Range. It is almost as close to the human eye as -I- have seen.
I am not gonna stop loving Canon. It is in my heart forever but times change and the world doesn't slow down.
DOn't be afraid of mirrorless or of a complete change in system. Sometimes, change is exactly what you need to wake up your numb senses.
Cheers
Patrick

 

[Kit.]

Of course. But at some point Canon will decide that they won't design another new DSLR and just keep selling the existing models until they are no longer viable to sell. And that point will be some point within the next ten years - some people think it could be as soon as 3 years away, others are more cautious.

I would put it this way: at some point Canon will decide that they won't design another new FF ILC and just keep selling the existing models until they are no longer viable to sell. At now, though, we cannot tell if the last FF ILC body sold by Canon will be a SLR.

 

[Don Haines]

My prediction is: small, medium, large.....

Small: The M series.... you want small, and that means tiny lenses too. The M delivers....

Medium: I see the crop rebels going away, to be replaced by a FF mirrorless camera, with the shorter mount. I see F6.3 lenses as part of the ecosystem and some wide fast lenses as well, but mostly "intermediate" lenses..

Large: The XD sized cameras... Large EF lenses to go with them.... Quality at the forefront. A couple mirrored models, and a couple mirrorless models....

 

[dtaylor]

Here's an example where an app could be adapted to a full camera which I would find really exciting. Right now you can use the PhotoPills app to show you where the milky way is at any time of day: the app overlays a fake milky way using augmented reality on top of what your camera phone sees so you can tell where the actual milky way is even though you can't see it. If that functionality was added to a full frame camera, you could compose a milky way shot on your ILC's LCD using the overlay rather than guessing where the milky way will show up in your composition.

Or you can use a DSLR and actually see the Milky Way through your viewfinder. Which brings me to a prediction addressing the subject of the thread...

DSLRs will not cease production unless and until MILCs can match them on two points. EVFs have to match OVFs in responsiveness and IQ in all situations. And on-sensor AF has to match off-mirror PDAF in target acquisition and tracking. MILC engineers have been working on both problems for nearly a decade and still have not solved them. Given the technical issues involved they may not be solvable any time soon. As long as these differences are significant there will be demand for DSLRs.

The other scenario under which DSLRs may cease production would be a true paradigm shift in photography. Something like a multi sensor camera that could shoot 8k (33mp) video at 60 fps and change the plane of focus in post. Technically it would be "mirrorless" but it would represent just as much of a departure from what we currently think of as mirrorless as from DSLRs, and it would kill current mirrorless ILC systems just as quickly.

Here's another observation: the majority of ILC sales are crop sensors (APS-C and m43). There have been many mature MILC options in crop for years. Right now mirrorless outsells DSLRs in exactly one country: Japan. In the rest of Asia DSLRs hold a comfortable lead. In Europe DSLRs outsell MILCs by a nearly 2:1 margin. In the Americas it's 3:1.

I do not foresee the introduction of FF MILCs by Nikon and Canon radically changing these sales numbers. Truly aggressive crop kits from both might (just) push mirrorless into majority sales globally in a couple years. FF kits aren't going to do this at anything other than unrealistic price points and production volumes (i.e. Canon introduces a $500 FF MILC with 5D IV specs and can make millions of them overnight).

The theory that DSLRs are dying or about to die completely ignores the evidence at hand. At some point next decade MILCs might outsell them. But given current sales numbers and buyer preferences I feel comfortable predicting that it will be next decade before MILC takes majority marketshare, which is still a long, long way from DSLRs ceasing production.

 

[sanj]

It depends on who you went to lunch with.
View attachment 179889

Feel better after your stupid post? I understand it all. Very well. You are in denial. People have and are, still saying that DSLR as they exist today are here to stay. They are not. Obviously not.

 

[fullstop]

DSLRs will be here for a long time to come.

This motto inn bold letters will also hang framed on every wall in every CaNikon exec office.

Right next to "Mirrorless is just a fad."



Just look at it this way: any new entrant to the photography market who buys an APS-C or FF mirrorfree cameras is rather unlikely to ever buy old-style mirrorslappers. It is just a matter of how quickly this group gains critical mass. Which is helped a lot by availability of decent mirrorfree cameras. Which has sucked for many years but is now improving. From there on things will happen ... rapidly. Slappers will soon be as small a minority as film shooters today. Less than 3% of ILC market.

 

[scyrene]

In other words, your opinions and definition are irrelevant and useless.

“"Are you smarter than a 5th grader?," I didn’t know about this game until now. Are you preparing to beat those kids???

Ah, that heady combination of ignorance and arrogance.

 

[scyrene]

Time will show. I feel the oldies everywhere are resistant to change. Remember when digital was introduced the old timers stuck in their thinking insisted film was the only way? It is matter of time when mirrorless will take over.
Many stuck up people in this forum few months ago where saying EVF is rubbish, no need to have mirrorless etc. Canon was a cool company not to have a proper mirrorless etc. Now Canon - is launching it. It is now a matter of time. Not saying tomorrow, but in the near future DSLR as we know today will not be where they are.

One thing you do learn with age is to be suspicious when people say "in the near future X will happen" and they repeat it year after year, but it does not happen.

 

[scyrene]

some people think it could be as soon as 3 years away

Those people are exceedingly foolish. Three years!

 

[scyrene]

Feel better after your stupid post? I understand it all. Very well. You are in denial. People have and are, still saying that DSLR as they exist today are here to stay. They are not. Obviously not.

Here's a tip: just because you believe something doesn't make it true, and simply asserting a belief doesn't settle a debate.

 

[scyrene]

There's something decidedly millenarian about these discussions

 

[dtaylor]

Just look at it this way: any new entrant to the photography market who buys an APS-C or FF mirrorfree cameras is rather unlikely to ever buy old-style mirrorslappers.

MILCs have been on the market a long time. Do you have any sales data to back this up? Do we know that MILC buyers never migrate to or add DSLRs?

Which is helped a lot by availability of decent mirrorfree cameras. Which has sucked for many years but is now improving.

Who are you kidding? There have been excellent crop MILC options for years. And crop, not FF, dominates sales. Sony has been the only choice for FF but their offerings have not "sucked."

Sales are still 3:1 in favor of DSLRs in the Americas, 2:1 in Europe, majority DSLR in Asia. Only Japan has higher MILC sales, and that may be because Japan is already DSLR saturated. (If you own 3 DSLRs why not make the next camera a MILC?)

 

[Kit.]

This motto inn bold letters will also hang framed on every wall in every CaNikon exec office.

Right next to "Mirrorless is just a fad."

Mirrorless cannot be "just a fad". Mirrorless is here for about a thousand years, and is going to stay till the end of civilization.

MILC can be "just a fad", though.

Just look at it this way: any new entrant to the photography market who buys an APS-C or FF mirrorfree cameras

...practically doesn't exist. Any new entrant to the photography market these days buys 2.3", usually in smartphone.

is rather unlikely to ever buy

...an ILC.

Although, it was this way since the invention of point-and-shoot cameras.