Don’t expect any third-party autofocus lenses in the near future

dolina

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Interesting. So first an RF 28-300L replacement will be launched within 4 years. But now you don't guess it will happen.

I'd suggest putting more thought into your guesses. Do you honestly believe the RF lineup will include five 85mm prime lenses? There are three already. With IBIS and the two RF 85/1.2L lenses, I doubt we'll see an RF 85/1.4. With the RF 85/2 Macro, I doubt we'll see an RF 85/1.8.
Dude, this is a rumor site.

Most rumors are conjectures or outright guesses. Cool your jets.
 

dolina

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I'm pretty sure Canon considers the RF 85mm f/2 Macro IS STM a replacement for the EF 85mm f/1.8 USM. Also, the RF 100-400mm f/5.6-8 IS USM can also be considered a somewhat sucessor for the EF 75-300mm f/4-5.6 III.
Come to think of it it does sound plausable.

Let us see what the next 4 years will bring.

2/3rd EF lens direct replacement or improvement?

1/3rd new lenses?
 

WhatDoesMStandsFor

EOS M6 Mark II
Apr 15, 2020
60
47
Come to think of it it does sound plausable.

Let us see what the next 4 years will bring.

2/3rd EF lens direct replacement or improvement?

1/3rd new lenses?
Consider it is Canon we are talking about, they may even consider the RF 16mm f/2.8 STM a replacement for the EF 20mm f/2.8 USM. And then consider a L series 20mm with a fast aperture, such as f/1.4, since they already have that into their cine line up (both the regular CN-E as the Sumire lenses)
 

unfocused

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Yes, I would agree with that regarding patents. The situation isn't necessarily the same for all types of IP though. For example, for copyright infringment, essentially there needs to be some relevant dealing with the copyright work. So, if I come up with something which is identifical to your copyright work but I didn't copy your work (eg I didn't even know you had ever even created your copyright work so I couldn't have copied it), that isn't copyright infringement. Obviously, that would be an unusual situation though!
And without going too far down the rabbit hole, there is the whole world of appropriation art – Sherrie Levine and Richard Prince for example.
 

randfee

I'm New Here
Aug 27, 2020
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Do you honestly believe that they will take that fact (that you are giving them the 6 months) into consideration when deciding how to act in the next half year?
no - where do I say that... I'm not that naive.
 
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dolina

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Brand loyalty is super cringey. Canon's only job is to fleece as much money out of you as humanly possible.
Framing the market environment will help everyone understand why Canon refuses to license, Sony gave out the basic specifications without fee and Fuji & Nikon gave a selective license

The dSLR & MILC market 1-2 decades ago is different from the one within this decade.

The market has been shrinking YoY since 2010-2012.

With lower sales means cuts in R&D and after sales support. This results in fewer body & lens SKUs released annually and shit bad service center experiences.

If 3rd party brands gets the 1st opportunity of lens sales because Canon do not have that specific lens SKU released then the odds of the buyer replacing it later with a 1st party lens is near zero.

As happy Canon users we do not want to suffer less 1st party choices and diminished after sales service center support.

I rather 3rd party lens brands close down than body makers.

Our worry is Canon may end up like

- Minolta https://www.lightstalking.com/minolta-sony-relationship/
- Ricoh https://www.digitalcameraworld.com/...-reborn-but-will-disappear-from-camera-stores
- Pentax https://www.adorama.com/alc/ricoh-buys-pentax/
- Samsung https://petapixel.com/2017/04/08/samsungs-camera-business-killed-smartphones-report/
- Olympus https://www.pcmag.com/opinions/what-the-olympus-imaging-sale-means-for-photographers
 
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degos

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With lower sales means cuts in R&D and after sales support. This results in fewer body & lens SKUs released annually and shit bad service center experiences.

If 3rd party brands gets the 1st opportunity of lens sales because Canon do not have that specific lens SKU released then the odds of the buyer replacing it later with a 1st party lens is near zero.

Canon Imaging made a profit of 332 billion Yen in 2021. That's money they chose not to invest in R&D and after sales support. Money they so earnestly didn't want to spend on R&D that they decided a better idea was to throw away a quarter of it as tax instead.

If Canon don't offer a particular RF lens that people want to buy it's because of their internal decisions, not because of small third-party manufacturers.

As for me, I'll choose to ignore RF until I have a true choice of lenses from a variety of manufacturers.
 
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dolina

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Canon Imaging made a profit of 332 billion Yen in 2021. That's money they chose not to invest in R&D and after sales support. Money they so earnestly didn't want to spend on R&D that they decided a better idea was to throw away a quarter of it as tax instead.

If Canon don't offer a particular RF lens that people want to buy it's because of their internal decisions, not because of small third-party manufacturers.

As for me, I'll choose to ignore RF until I have a true choice of lenses from a variety of manufacturers.

Canon poised for 20% growth in net profit for 2022​

Upward revision for year expected on Tuesday with weakening yen as tailwind

TOKYO -- Japanese camera maker Canon is expected to book a consolidated net profit of about 250 billion yen ($1.9 billion) for the 2022 fiscal year, roughly a 20% increase on the previous year, due to predictions of strong earnings in semiconductor lithography equipment and security cameras.

The figure exceeds the outlook announced by the company in January by 5 billion yen. Raw materials are rising due to inflation, but the company will work around the problem by finding ways to reduce costs and marking up products.

=====

Making that little, in the 4 years of RF system they have released

- 30 RF lens SKUs, nearly half of the 63 Sony E lens SKUs
- 5 RF full frame bodies that is over half of the 9 Sony FF bodies
- 2 RF APS-C bodies that is half of 4 Sony APS-C bodies
- 32 RF lens SKUs has been promised by Canon CEO by year 2026.

Sony has 2x more bodies & lenses because the E mount started in early 2010, more than a dozen years ago.

Canon EF system also enjoyed more lenses & bodies than Sony during their 1st 4 years because the EF mount was introduced in 1987.

=====

The RF lens & bodies released in the past 4 years are representative of

- faster inventory turnover due to actual higher user demand

- better margins

The RF lens & bodies released in the next 4 years are representative of

- slower inventory turnover due to actual lower user demand

- worse margins
 
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unfocused

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Canon poised for 20% growth in net profit for 2022​

Upward revision for year expected on Tuesday with weakening yen as tailwind

TOKYO -- Japanese camera maker Canon is expected to book a consolidated net profit of about 250 billion yen ($1.9 billion) for the 2022 fiscal year, roughly a 20% increase on the previous year, due to predictions of strong earnings in semiconductor lithography equipment and security cameras.

The figure exceeds the outlook announced by the company in January by 5 billion yen. Raw materials are rising due to inflation, but the company will work around the problem by finding ways to reduce costs and marking up products.

=====

In 4 years of RF mount they have released

- 30 RF lens SKUs, nearly half of the 63 Sony E lens SKUs
- 5 RF full frame bodies that is over half of the 9 Sony FF bodies
- 2 RF APS-C bodies that is half of 4 Sony APS-C bodies
- 32 RF lens SKUs has been promised by Canon CEO by year 2026.

Sony has 2x more bodies & lenses because the E mount started in early 2010, more than a dozen years ago.

=====

The RF lens & bodies released in the past 4 years are representative of

- faster inventory turnover due to actual higher user demand

- better margins

The RF lens & bodies released in the next 4 years are representative of

- slower inventory turnover due to actual lower user demand

- worse margins
Please, don't confuse people with the facts. They like living in their alternate reality.
 
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dolina

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Please, don't confuse people with the facts. They like living in their alternate reality.

8T1R2Lv.png


I blame them being spoiled with the 35 years of EF system that enjoyed YoY growth from 1987 to 2012 where in Canon can afford to tolerate reversed engineered unlicensed 3rd party lenses.

Sony replicated this in 2011 and cleared the air of any legal ambiguity by Disclosing Basic Specifications of the "E-mount" for Interchangeable Single Lens Cameras without Fee.

For the last decade ILC sales dropped YoY so when Canon released their RF mount they refused to license it out or even tolerate reverse engineering.

If 3rd party support is that important I'd stick to Sony that has ~6 year image sensor tech advantage over Canon. This only possible as ~50% of all ~1.4 billion smartphones annually shipped have image sensors from Sony. R&D for smartphone cameras are being applied to E mount bodies.

For me what is more important is CPS. Other than Nikon no other company can match them.

This can only be achieved if sales are doing well.

If I was a working photog and depended on functional equipment for a job I'd hate to depend on a service center that does not have spare parts on hand or a slow turn around.

I'd be forced to spend on a rental while I wait longer than CPS turn around time. That's lost revenue that could have gone to my pocket or to better RF L lenses.
 
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dolina

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If Canon don't offer a particular RF lens that people want to buy it's because of their internal decisions, not because of small third-party manufacturers.

Canon, like every other business, is experiencing supply chain challenges.


I recall the magnitude 9.0–9.1 (Mw) 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami impacting the delivery of these lenses

0L3jVGW.png


- 2010 Canon EF 8-15mm f/4L Fisheye USM
- 2010 Canon EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II USM
- 2010 Canon EF 400mm f/2.8L IS II USM
- 2011 Canon EF 500mm f/4.0L IS II USM
- 2011 Canon EF 600mm f/4.0L IS II USM
- 2011 Canon EF 200-400mm f/4L IS USM Extender 1.4x

I remember this incident because my orders were impacted by it
 

dwarven

EOS RP
Dec 12, 2019
300
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California, US
Framing the market environment will help everyone understand why Canon refuses to license, Sony gave out the basic specifications without fee and Fuji & Nikon gave a selective license

The dSLR & MILC market 1-2 decades ago is different from the one within this decade.

The market has been shrinking YoY since 2010-2012.

With lower sales means cuts in R&D and after sales support. This results in fewer body & lens SKUs released annually and shit bad service center experiences.

If 3rd party brands gets the 1st opportunity of lens sales because Canon do not have that specific lens SKU released then the odds of the buyer replacing it later with a 1st party lens is near zero.

As happy Canon users we do not want to suffer less 1st party choices and diminished after sales service center support.

I rather 3rd party lens brands close down than body makers.

Our worry is Canon may end up like

- Minolta https://www.lightstalking.com/minolta-sony-relationship/
- Ricoh https://www.digitalcameraworld.com/...-reborn-but-will-disappear-from-camera-stores
- Pentax https://www.adorama.com/alc/ricoh-buys-pentax/
- Samsung https://petapixel.com/2017/04/08/samsungs-camera-business-killed-smartphones-report/
- Olympus https://www.pcmag.com/opinions/what-the-olympus-imaging-sale-means-for-photographers

Canon deserves to go out of business if their only strategy is to sell their brand name and take options away from customers. I know I'll be getting rid of all my Canon gear soon in favor of Sony.
 
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neuroanatomist

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Canon deserves to go out of business if their only strategy is to sell their brand name and take options away from customers. I know I'll be getting rid of all my Canon gear soon in favor of Sony.
Seems to me they sell quality products, not just a brand name.

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
 
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dolina

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Canon deserves to go out of business if their only strategy is to sell their brand name and take options away from customers. I know I'll be getting rid of all my Canon gear soon in favor of Sony.

Users like you are better served by Sony.

Smartphones destroyed the market of consumer point & shots and consumer ILCs that is customarily paired with economical 3rd party lenses.

All camera brands are going up market to professionals and enthusiasts with large discretionary spend. Better margins per unit bought. This is a key reason why FujiFILM created a new MILC system with a 0.79x crop Medium Format Sensor with bodies & lenses that are priced, physical dimensions & weight of Canon FF dSLR & EF L lenses.

Total ILC bodies shipped worldwide in key years

- 2003: 845,328 -- 1st year it was recorded separately from p&s
- 2012: 20,157,053 -- all time high
- 2021: 5,348,271 -- last year
- 2022: 5,290,000 -- forecast for this year

Count how many FF vs APS-C body SKUs each brand are in-stock with a USA warranty on https://www.bhphotovideo.com/

For every 4 APS-C body there are 9 FF

If the market for professional photographers dropped from 20+ million jobs to 5+ million jobs would you want to hear customers say they'll switch photographer services in a shrinking market?

That's what many photogs do not understand because they started photography in the growth years of ILC that benefited during the declining years of ILC.

Odds are with Canon's business model will maintain its profitability it being 1 of 3 brands to occupy more than 90% of the digital still camera market into the 2030s.

My key concerns for Canon are these

- CPS continues to operate at the service level I've enjoyed in the past 2 decades within 30 mins drive from me
- Canon keeps releasing new bodies & lenses relevant to my interests

The professional photog friends of mine publicly complained to the local Sony Japanese boss about the CPS equivalent of Sony in my country is terrible. I attribute this to Sony's ability to fund their CPS equivalent to the service level accustomed by professional photogs.

Sony may have FF sensors that is ~6 years advanced of any that Canon has now but that technical advantage gets snuffed when you cannot do personal projects or even revenue generating work due to slow turn around times.

I hope when you have a job scheduled that week your Sony gear will not require any servicing or that will be one costly booking.
 
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entoman

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May 8, 2015
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Brand loyalty is super cringey. Canon's only job is to fleece as much money out of you as humanly possible.
Brand loyalty is sometimes taken to ridiculous extremes, resulting in fanboyism, silly levels of defensivenes and plain stupid bashing of the perceived "opposition".

But there are very good reasons why people remain loyal to a particular brand, e.g. continuity of ergonomics, and reluctance to make uneconomic decisions about switching.

Occasionally, switching can be worthwhile e.g. if an alternative brand offers really significant improvements in specification and performance, or if it offers particular lenses that are unobtainable in someone's current brand. But realistically, there are very few lenses "missing" from the RF range, and anything that is missing is available in EF fitting and will work perfectly with the EF-RF adaptor.

But don't kid yourself that switching brands will make any difference to the quality of your photography, because that's down to you, not to the camera you are using. And don't kid yourself that you'll even notice a difference in technical quality either, because you won't - that is down mostly to good technique, as the IQ from all the top brands is pretty much indistinguishable in the real world. Perhaps you should try living in the real world.
 
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Johnw

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Oct 10, 2020
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Occasionally, switching can be worthwhile e.g. if an alternative brand offers really significant improvements in specification and performance, or if it offers particular lenses that are unobtainable in someone's current brand.

Or I think even more commonly, when you are moving up to a more capable system. I started with Canon and Powershots, then when I moved up to APSC I re-evaluated the options and decided to move to Nikon since I liked their options better at the time. When I moved up to FF, I similarly did another re-evaluation and decided that Canon had the best FF system to invest in for the future.

But don't kid yourself that switching brands will make any difference to the quality of your photography, because that's down to you, not to the camera you are using.

100%. I didn’t move up to APSC until I got good results with Powershots, and I didn’t move up to FF until I got good results with APSC. In each case I understood that my ability as a photographer had reached a point where more capable equipment would allow me to do better and continue to grow in my skill, but it was the prior results achieved that justified the move.
 
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dolina

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I'm brand loyal because of CPS. From feedback of non-Canon users the service level they experience with their brand is not to standard.
 
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Sep 19, 2022
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Canon poised for 20% growth in net profit for 2022​

Upward revision for year expected on Tuesday with weakening yen as tailwind

TOKYO -- Japanese camera maker Canon is expected to book a consolidated net profit of about 250 billion yen ($1.9 billion) for the 2022 fiscal year, roughly a 20% increase on the previous year, due to predictions of strong earnings in semiconductor lithography equipment and security cameras.

The figure exceeds the outlook announced by the company in January by 5 billion yen. Raw materials are rising due to inflation, but the company will work around the problem by finding ways to reduce costs and marking up products.

=====

Making that little, in the 4 years of RF system they have released

- 30 RF lens SKUs, nearly half of the 63 Sony E lens SKUs
- 5 RF full frame bodies that is over half of the 9 Sony FF bodies
- 2 RF APS-C bodies that is half of 4 Sony APS-C bodies
- 32 RF lens SKUs has been promised by Canon CEO by year 2026.

Sony has 2x more bodies & lenses because the E mount started in early 2010, more than a dozen years ago.

Canon EF system also enjoyed more lenses & bodies than Sony during their 1st 4 years because the EF mount was introduced in 1987.

=====

The RF lens & bodies released in the past 4 years are representative of

- faster inventory turnover due to actual higher user demand

- better margins

The RF lens & bodies released in the next 4 years are representative of

- slower inventory turnover due to actual lower user demand

- worse margins

I'm sorry, but 9 FF bodies released? 4 APS bodies? Not that I think it matters, bo you clearly have no idea what you're taking about. Unless you do know and missinform on purpose.