EOS-1D X & EOS 5D Mark III Replacements in 2015 [CR1]

[Maiaibing]

Really the only guideline useable. Not that's its fail safe. But seems to be useful to gauge updates more than anything else. Here's my D-series timeline,
+ 42 Months

MAR 2012 5DIII

So far 27 Months

+[37 Months = JUL 2015 ??] 5DIV ??
+[42 Months = DEC 2015 ??] 5DIV ??

So, still hoping for a 5DIV announcement at the end of this year.

Keep in mind that announcement dates do not translate to the first shipment received.

Like say the 5D Mark II. I do recall that was the announcement date but I know the first shipment of bodies arrived after Christmas and before New Years of that year.

Maybe, but the 5DIII actually went to the shops the same month as it was announced. So I expect no delay to market if indeed it is announced mid-2015 and not late 2014/early 2015 as I hope so I can plan my next move.

If Canon has something new up their sleeves I am sure they will want to "hype" it as they did with the 5DII before it came out with several teases preceding it. No reason for "hyping" the 5DIII. Solid - yes. Innovative - no. Canon even promoted it relative to 5DII: "builds on the performance of the legendary EOS 5D Mark II, offering improved speed,greater resolution, enhanced processing power and extended creative options for both stills and Full HD movies".

Time will tell.

 

[GMCPhotographics]

Car makers are a stagnant market with very little change from year to year.... mostly cosmetic changes. No real surprises anywhere... As a point in case, with pickup trucks the big thing this year is GM with a step in the corner of the bumper.... that's it!

Or Ford's 700 pound reduction in weight going from steel to aluminum.

Or how about the Toyota Hybrid System announcements, fuel cell vehicle announcements, or other maker's (including Tesla) battery electric vehicle announcements? Those are hardly "stagnant".

I stand corrected!

The VW XL1 is pretty amazing too. 300+ mpg. It's so efficient the oil dependant USA government have banned it from sale.

 

[Don Haines]

As for major sporting events the next ones are the 2016 Sumner Games in Brazil, 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and 2018 Winter Games in Korea.

I dont know of any major sporting event in 2015 so my bet is the new 1-Series body will be out sometime in 2016.

The Rugby World Cup is a truly massive sporting event, and will take place in 2015. It will take place in England. I can't wait, as am already looking forward to it!!! ;D

World cup of Cricket also happens early 2015. Thats three major events in 2015!

and the Constance Bay Ice Fishing tournament. That makes four!

LOL@ Constance Bay Ice Fishing tournament....times a billion! ;D

you've got to test a pro level camera in cold weather

 

[LetTheRightLensIn]

Thank you BTW for supporting my assessment that 2015 will be a dry year for 5D and 1D replacements. Other than no major sporting events of the caliber of the Olympics or World Cup there is the thing about product life cycles.August 2016.

I must say that I find it a little amusing that on a rumour site where you are giving your opinion of a theory with regards to the future 5D and 1D product line from Canon, that you ignore two of the world's largest sporting events.

Cricket World Cup:
http://www.icc-cricket.com/cricket-world-cup

and the Rugby World Cup:
http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/

They may not be sports that are popular in the Philippines, a country I love, but I can assure you they are right up there with FIFA World Cup and Olympics.

But we already discussed that earlier in the thread. It is always easy to theorise when you select which facts to omit, ignore or manipulate.

umm no
(although, granted, more popular than some may think, cricket is huge in India and they have a ridiculously huge population, but all the same come not bigger the Olympics)

 

[3kramd5]

Car makers are a stagnant market with very little change from year to year.... mostly cosmetic changes. No real surprises anywhere... As a point in case, with pickup trucks the big thing this year is GM with a step in the corner of the bumper.... that's it!

Or Ford's 700 pound reduction in weight going from steel to aluminum.

Or how about the Toyota Hybrid System announcements, fuel cell vehicle announcements, or other maker's (including Tesla) battery electric vehicle announcements? Those are hardly "stagnant".

I stand corrected!

The VW XL1 is pretty amazing too. 300+ mpg. It's so efficient the oil dependant USA government have banned it from sale.

How did they find the time to do that what with all the chem-trailing and 9/11 orchestrating?

 

[Tugela]

As for major sporting events the next ones are the 2016 Sumner Games in Brazil, 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and 2018 Winter Games in Korea.

I dont know of any major sporting event in 2015 so my bet is the new 1-Series body will be out sometime in 2016.

The Rugby World Cup is a truly massive sporting event, and will take place in 2015. It will take place in England. I can't wait, as am already looking forward to it!!! ;D

World cup of Cricket also happens early 2015. Thats three major events in 2015!

and the Constance Bay Ice Fishing tournament. That makes four!

LOL@ Constance Bay Ice Fishing tournament....times a billion! ;D

you've got to test a pro level camera in cold weather

If it does not work properly at -30C it is completely useless as a camera. Well known fact.

 

[dolina]

I agree. If it doesn't work at -30c it is useless for cricket.

As for major sporting events the next ones are the 2016 Sumner Games in Brazil, 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and 2018 Winter Games in Korea.

I dont know of any major sporting event in 2015 so my bet is the new 1-Series body will be out sometime in 2016.

The Rugby World Cup is a truly massive sporting event, and will take place in 2015. It will take place in England. I can't wait, as am already looking forward to it!!! ;D

World cup of Cricket also happens early 2015. Thats three major events in 2015!

and the Constance Bay Ice Fishing tournament. That makes four!

LOL@ Constance Bay Ice Fishing tournament....times a billion! ;D

you've got to test a pro level camera in cold weather

If it does not work properly at -30C it is completely useless as a camera. Well known fact.

 

[assassin11]

I dont know of any major sporting event in 2015 so my bet is the new 1-Series body will be out sometime in 2016.

Would the 2015 Pam am games in Toronto be considered a major sporting event?

No.

1Ds Mark III was announced in August 2007, just weeks after the 2007 Pan Am Games in Rio. The Canon EOS-1D X was announced in October 2011 during the Pan AM games in Guadalajara. Just saying.

See bold for your answer.

My point is camera bodies came out on those years (Pan AM Game years). So 2015 is a possibility. Just after or during.

 

[expatinasia]

Thank you BTW for supporting my assessment that 2015 will be a dry year for 5D and 1D replacements. Other than no major sporting events of the caliber of the Olympics or World Cup there is the thing about product life cycles.August 2016.

I must say that I find it a little amusing that on a rumour site where you are giving your opinion of a theory with regards to the future 5D and 1D product line from Canon, that you ignore two of the world's largest sporting events.

Cricket World Cup:
http://www.icc-cricket.com/cricket-world-cup

and the Rugby World Cup:
http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/

They may not be sports that are popular in the Philippines, a country I love, but I can assure you they are right up there with FIFA World Cup and Olympics.

But we already discussed that earlier in the thread. It is always easy to theorise when you select which facts to omit, ignore or manipulate.

umm no
(although, granted, more popular than some may think, cricket is huge in India and they have a ridiculously huge population, but all the same come not bigger the Olympics)

umm no, what?

I did not say the Cricket World Cup and Rugby World Cup are bigger than the Olympics, I said they are major global sporting events that attract billions of viewers.

Cricket is huge in India, Sri Lanka, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, England and a lot of other countries.

Rugby is also huge in a lot of countries around the world and is even played here in Asia Pacific where Japan and South Korea are the best teams, with China and HK fast getting better. Most other nations here are not very good at it, but this is for many reasons including sport education, marketing and history.

The final with England v Australia in the Rugby World Cup was viewed by some 3billion if I remember correctly and was broadcast in 205 countries.

Anyway, this is not about sport. I was just making the point that there are major international sporting events in 2015. I only mentioned the two biggest, and those two are massive. There are also plenty of other smaller events that do not compare to the Olympics and FIFA world cup.

Back to cameras?

 

[madmailman]

You think it might just be an economies of scale issue. Maybe the 7DII will have a sensor built on a new smaller say 50nm production line and to get the most out of the new line Canon needs to produce all it's new sensors on that line and retire the old 500nm line(s). This would make economic sense no? The "new revolutionary" sensor in the 7DII I think will point out where ALL EOS cameras are going.

 

[GMCPhotographics]

You think it might just be an economies of scale issue. Maybe the 7DII will have a sensor built on a new smaller say 50nm production line and to get the most out of the new line Canon needs to produce all it's new sensors on that line and retire the old 500nm line(s). This would make economic sense no? The "new revolutionary" sensor in the 7DII I think will point out where ALL EOS cameras are going.

Canon used the 7D as a development mule for camera ergonomics and User Interface updates, which is why the camera's handling is still so fresh. Nearly all of it's design changes went into the 5DIII and 1DX. So much so many people called the 5DIII a full frame 7D than a 5DII replacement (which is what the 6D eventually became). The AF redesign paved the way for the 61 point array and control and apart from the sensor, there is still a lot to like about the 7D. So it makes sense for Canon to use the 7DII as a development tool to updaqte the sensor technology and design. As long as the 7DII breaks even in the market place then the develeopment and lessons learnt from this model are effectively free to Canon, who can then incorporate it's features into the next gen of camera models...ie 5D4, 6DII, 1DXII ect. If the sensor is fantastic, then it's hype will generate a natural desire for full frame variants...and the next gen camera models will pretty much sell themselves with little marketing. In my view, that's the wise application of innovation which leads to market dominance.
If I rememebr the 40D introduced Live view to Canon, which was later incorporated into the 1DsIII and 5DII models. For landscape work, it was a game changer...somehitng which Nikon have never fully engaged with.

 

[AvTvM]

Canon used the 7D as a development mule for camera ergonomics and User Interface updates, which is why the camera's handling is still so fresh. Nearly all of it's design changes went into the 5DIII and 1DX. So much so many people called the 5DIII a full frame 7D than a 5DII replacement (which is what the 6D eventually became). The AF redesign paved the way for the 61 point array and control and apart from the sensor, there is still a lot to like about the 7D. So it makes sense for Canon to use the 7DII as a development tool to updaqte the sensor technology and design. As long as the 7DII breaks even in the market place then the develeopment and lessons learnt from this model are effectively free to Canon, who can then incorporate it's features into the next gen of camera models...ie 5D4, 6DII, 1DXII ect. If the sensor is fantastic, then it's hype will generate a natural desire for full frame variants...and the next gen camera models will pretty much sell themselves with little marketing. In my view, that's the wise application of innovation which leads to market dominance.
If I rememebr the 40D introduced Live view to Canon, which was later incorporated into the 1DsIII and 5DII models. For landscape work, it was a game changer...somehitng which Nikon have never fully engaged with.

+1 ... on eyerything!

 

[trstromme]

Solid rumours I'd put any money on come along very rarely. I personally discount almost anything that's more than 4 months out from an announcement.

I still can't fathom why the camera makers are so secretive, when companies like Intel and Microsoft provide roadmaps into future announcements.

Because these are two very different industries when you look at their markets;
Intel (especially)
The regular customer doesn't buy much direct from them.

Okay, then why do automobile companies do something quite similar, and telegraph their model replacements or refreshes usually more than a year in advance, and their technologies many years in advance?

do they?
They showcase models when they're done developing them, prior to general availability.
Before that, everything is hush-hush. Here in Norway (and also Sweden) each year you get spy shots of cars from the large european manufacturers being caught while making the journey to the north for winter testing etc. these cars are masked and hidden away as best as the manufacturers can. (like Canon/Nikon do when field testing their I'm sure)The manufacturer won't confirm or deny anything and their reps tend to flee at the sight of a camera.
When a model or technology is ready and introduced it is because it is meant for mass consumption, and they are sure of if and when they can deliver.
I don't really see much difference between the auto industry and the photo industry here. Models are introduced at for instance trade shows. Apart from concept and futuristic tinkering (as Canon have also done, for instance the 4k prototype..) very little is spoken about when it comes to new model lines or continuation of existing ones.
(Canon have made development announcements, like the 1Dc and the 800mm. It is because it serves them some purpose. They are limited in scope, one product typically and assure customers that they too are in a certain game.)

Why?
Because if you lay out your plans in the open you also make a commitment on delivery.
I work for a major software and hardware company in the IT industry. We do not (and are forbidden) to discuss plans of upcoming features, versions etc. yes there are road maps, but they are mostly internal, non-committing, often under NDAs. The public roadmaps are very broad, not much detail in them.
These things have financial implications; law-suits etc. from investors, customers etc. if you do not deliver. In an established marked I think it's better to keep quiet and surprise the markets every now and then than to be very outspoken and disappoint.
We had a (future) product once, the SPARC ROCK CPU which was a very unconventional new CPU design. We started talking about it in 2005. it was cancelled in 2009 because we could not perfect the technology. It cause a lot of negative press each and every time we delayed it much to the dismay of investors and the markets.

my shots on flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/trondstromme/

 

[madmailman]

You think it might just be an economies of scale issue. Maybe the 7DII will have a sensor built on a new smaller say 50nm production line and to get the most out of the new line Canon needs to produce all it's new sensors on that line and retire the old 500nm line(s). This would make economic sense no? The "new revolutionary" sensor in the 7DII I think will point out where ALL EOS cameras are going.

Canon used the 7D as a development mule for camera ergonomics and User Interface updates, which is why the camera's handling is still so fresh. Nearly all of it's design changes went into the 5DIII and 1DX. So much so many people called the 5DIII a full frame 7D than a 5DII replacement (which is what the 6D eventually became). The AF redesign paved the way for the 61 point array and control and apart from the sensor, there is still a lot to like about the 7D. So it makes sense for Canon to use the 7DII as a development tool to updaqte the sensor technology and design. As long as the 7DII breaks even in the market place then the develeopment and lessons learnt from this model are effectively free to Canon, who can then incorporate it's features into the next gen of camera models...ie 5D4, 6DII, 1DXII ect. If the sensor is fantastic, then it's hype will generate a natural desire for full frame variants...and the next gen camera models will pretty much sell themselves with little marketing. In my view, that's the wise application of innovation which leads to market dominance.
If I rememebr the 40D introduced Live view to Canon, which was later incorporated into the 1DsIII and 5DII models. For landscape work, it was a game changer...somehitng which Nikon have never fully engaged with.

I think you are missing my point. I was just throwing it out there that new 1D & 5D next year could be because Canon have retooled their sensor production lines and will no longer be able to produce the current sensors. We will have a very good idea if this is the case when the 7DII is released.

 

[GMCPhotographics]

You think it might just be an economies of scale issue. Maybe the 7DII will have a sensor built on a new smaller say 50nm production line and to get the most out of the new line Canon needs to produce all it's new sensors on that line and retire the old 500nm line(s). This would make economic sense no? The "new revolutionary" sensor in the 7DII I think will point out where ALL EOS cameras are going.

Canon used the 7D as a development mule for camera ergonomics and User Interface updates, which is why the camera's handling is still so fresh. Nearly all of it's design changes went into the 5DIII and 1DX. So much so many people called the 5DIII a full frame 7D than a 5DII replacement (which is what the 6D eventually became). The AF redesign paved the way for the 61 point array and control and apart from the sensor, there is still a lot to like about the 7D. So it makes sense for Canon to use the 7DII as a development tool to updaqte the sensor technology and design. As long as the 7DII breaks even in the market place then the develeopment and lessons learnt from this model are effectively free to Canon, who can then incorporate it's features into the next gen of camera models...ie 5D4, 6DII, 1DXII ect. If the sensor is fantastic, then it's hype will generate a natural desire for full frame variants...and the next gen camera models will pretty much sell themselves with little marketing. In my view, that's the wise application of innovation which leads to market dominance.
If I rememebr the 40D introduced Live view to Canon, which was later incorporated into the 1DsIII and 5DII models. For landscape work, it was a game changer...somehitng which Nikon have never fully engaged with.

I think you are missing my point. I was just throwing it out there that new 1D & 5D next year could be because Canon have retooled their sensor production lines and will no longer be able to produce the current sensors. We will have a very good idea if this is the case when the 7DII is released.

It's a fair point you make, I think Canon will want to move away from it's existing sensor design because it's their most complained about feature in the current generation of cameras. If Canon has to introduce new silicon etching equipment due to the need to move forwards, then that can only be a good thing for photographers. Canon have a history of slow but accurate change, they were slow to introduce AF, but they did it right and when they did, most other camera manufacturers moved over to a simular system. Nikon with their awful screw drive...Minolta / Sony had a simular system. Canon held off Digial sensors and pretty much went stright for cmos when every one else was playing with CCD chips...again, a few years later every one copied Canon because they got it right first time. A classic case of measure twice and cut once.
So when this new sensor tech lands....it'll be a wonder and an eye opener.

In the mean time, I'm still enjoying my 5DIII's

 

[ewg963]

Makes me wonder if I should return my 1dx and wait since I have the time.

Couple things to consider. It's CR1. If this rumor is true, we looking at least 1yr or more before we get to hand on X2.

We both bought the X at discount price. We might lose $500-$700 when ready to upgrade. It still cheaper than rent. I'm keeping mine until I see real thing

+1

 

[keithcooper]

Making use of rumours - selling kit?

I've never sold kit based on a rumour (and I see a few ;-) I get asked quite often and always ask what people are going to take pictures with, whilst waiting for the new stuff...

The only times I do make use of rumours is to ensure that when something comes along that I will definitely want, I've spoken to my dealer well in advance to make sure I get one of the first (I got my 1Ds3 in November 2007). One of the main reasons (apart from the 'New Toy' effect ;-) is because I write articles and reviews and timing may be important (hence I produced one of the first reviews of Canon's new 10-18mm lens).

With some products. you can wait and do a much more comprehensive review of (such as large format printers or colour management kit), but 'consumer' stuff has a time frame where there is more interest. In terms of my time put into the site, most is spent on the 'serious stuff' not the rumours (actually most is spent on the commercial photo part of the business, since that's what pays the bills ;-)

 

[Maiaibing]

Canon have a history of slow but accurate change, they were slow to introduce AF, but they did it right and when they did, most other camera manufacturers moved over to a simular system. Nikon with their awful screw drive...Minolta / Sony had a simular system.

Your memory fails you. Under presure by the tremendous succes of Minolta's AF system Canon rushed out a small series of utterly hopeless lenses with AF in a self-contained battery driven lens design. It was - of course - a complete flop and compelled Canon to rethink as they did with the EOS mount which left many Canon users dismayed because it rendered their old lenses useless, but allowed Canon (and ultimately its large user base) to move into the future.

 

[mackguyver]

I'm not sure I buy this rumor unless the new sensor tech is truly revolutionary (dual pixel doesn't excite me that much). For me the 5DIII and 1D X are very close to the perfect cameras and it would take at least one or more of these items for me to consider upgrading, assuming no degradation of existing features/performance:

1. 2+ stops of improvement in ISO noise levels
2. 2+ stops of improvement in DR
3. 50% increase in megapixels
4. 50% increase in frame rate
5. Significant weight reduction (1D X) via carbon fiber or something
6. Something revolutionary that we don't know about

 

[Dylan777]

I'm not sure I buy this rumor unless the new sensor tech is truly revolutionary (dual pixel doesn't excite me that much). For me the 5DIII and 1D X are very close to the perfect cameras and it would take at least one or more of these items for me to consider upgrading, assuming no degradation of existing features/performance:

1. 2+ stops of improvement in ISO noise levels
2. 2+ stops of improvement in DR
3. 50% increase in megapixels
4. 50% increase in frame rate
5. Significant weight reduction (1D X) via carbon fiber or something
6. Something revolutionary that we don't know about

It's easy to say it now. With your G.A.S problem, I have hard time believing it ;D

I now have little taste of 1d class, we might be the 1st few on pre-order list when X2 announced.