More Than One Active Full Frame Mirrorless Project at Canon? [CR1]

[Rick]

The first project is a full frame mirrorless camera with a native EF mount. This is something we have said has to happen for Canon to enter the world of full frame mirrorless cameras.

Actually, this would be a big mistake. Defeats several of the benefits of mirrorless.

 

[AvTvM]

My bet Canon 1st mirrorless FF like 1DX. 20+FPS. No AF calibration. Buyer: sports photographer. Maybe wildlife. And wedding photographer. Silent camera in church = prayers answered. Not for photojournalist or birders. Birders will hate because many birders are hobby so they picky. Not like pro. Maybe this difference. Pro build bridge, hobby build wall.

hehe. Not quite. Pros do what makes them money. Hobbyists do what they like.

Other than that I agree: most likely Canon will launch a big, fat, 1Dx-type sports MILC with regular EF mount targeted at pros [2018]. Super expensive of course. AF will be "adequate" = similar to EF glass [USM] in live view mode on a 1Dx II.

Next [2018/19], Canon will likely launch and sell new versions [EF] of f/2.8 L zooms and hi-end primes ... with Nano-USM [and IS ... e.g. EF 24-70/2.8 IS USM]. Lens prices will of course be raised from around 2k to about 3k.

Then [2019] they will launch a Sony RX1R II type ultracompact FF camera with bolted-on zoom 3x lens. Powershot G1X III with FF sensor. Ccurved sensor possible, but likely only in Mk. II or Mk. III version ... not in 1st gen.

And only thereafter [2020] will Canon finally come up with the slim, new mount [EF-X?] system to cater to me and all the other people who want a fully capable FF MILC in the smallest possible form factor. Price/performance roughly in 5D territory. Plus a limited line-up of super compact moderately fast, around f/2.0 primes. Plus some f/4 zooms smaller than current EF versions [16-35, 24-70, 24-105].

Things may happen faster, when Sony A7 III/R/S hit the market and get traction and more so, *IF* Nikon brings a killer FF MILC system

 

[Bahrd]

Things may happen faster, when Sony A7 III/R/S hit the market and get traction and more so, *IF* Nikon brings a killer FF MILC system

I think Canon is working hard to combine a global shutter with DP AF to offer a truly silent killer camera.
The type of a mount is not as important as Canon can weigh releasing two lines - one with and one without an adaptor.

 

[BillB]

hehe. Not quite. Pros do what makes them money. Hobbyists do what they like.

Other than that I agree: most likely Canon will launch a big, fat, 1Dx-type sports MILC with regular EF mount targeted at pros [2018]. Super expensive of course. AF will be "adequate" = similar to EF glass [USM] in live view mode on a 1Dx II.

Next [2018/19], Canon will likely launch and sell new versions [EF] of f/2.8 L zooms and hi-end primes ... with Nano-USM [and IS ... e.g. EF 24-70/2.8 IS USM]. Lens prices will of course be raised from around 2k to about 3k.

Then [2019] they will launch a Sony RX1R II type ultracompact FF camera with bolted-on zoom 3x lens. Powershot G1X III with FF sensor. Ccurved sensor possible, but likely only in Mk. II or Mk. III version ... not in 1st gen.

And only thereafter [2020] will Canon finally come up with the slim, new mount [EF-X?] system to cater to me and all the other people who want a fully capable FF MILC in the smallest possible form factor. Price/performance roughly in 5D territory. Plus a limited line-up of super compact moderately fast, around f/2.0 primes. Plus some f/4 zooms smaller than current EF versions [16-35, 24-70, 24-105].

Things may happen faster, when Sony A7 III/R/S hit the market and get traction and more so, *IF* Nikon brings a killer FF MILC system

Could the big EF mirrorless fit in the 5D range with features such as silent shutter for a wide range of pro applications for which a 1D body would be overkill?

Maybe the fixed lens RX1R II ish version might be made in a couple of models--like a 3x zoom and also a model with a large aperture prime in the 28-35mm range. The prime version could be the starting point for introducing a curved sensor.

Another approach would be to come up with something like a 6Dish mirrorless that was relatively small, using a mount analogous to the EF-S, which would be fully compatible with EF, while permitting the use of lenses that penetrated deeper into the camera. This would avoid that use of a lens mount that would not be compatible with EF cameras and required an adapter for the use of EF lenses.

 

[okaro]

If you mean mirrorless will be 80% of sales of any type of camera, surely we're already there with cell phones included, right?

- A

This year mirrorless have been 37% if ILCs shipped. The next year it could be 50%. When the switch happens it can happen really fast like in many previous switches in technology. As to smart phones they make over 98% of total camera sales.

 

[AvTvM]

If you mean mirrorless will be 80% of sales of any type of camera, surely we're already there with cell phones included, right?

- A

This year mirrorless have been 37% if ILCs shipped. The next year it could be 50%. When the switch happens it can happen really fast like in many previous switches in technology. As to smart phones they make over 98% of total camera sales.

As soon as there are *WORTHY, CAPABLE, AFFORDABLE* mirrorless camera systems (including lenses) both for APS-C and for FF offered by all 3 major players [Ca/Ni/SO], the switch will happen very quickly.

Just think of the transitions from film to digital or from vinyl LP to CD, from CD to download, from download to streaming. At first it took a number of years with not very much happening and as soon as it reached some critical mass, full transition happened very quickly.

Anybody believing that "jury is out" whether mirrorless cameras are the (near!) future is ... delusional.

 

[Orangutan]

As soon as there are *WORTHY, CAPABLE, AFFORDABLE* mirrorless camera systems...the switch will happen very quickly.

This is a meaningless statement -- it's like saying as soon as there's a worthy, capable, affordable flying car, the switch from road-bound vehicles will happen very quickly. I think few are attached to a mirror for its own sake, but because it enables features not currently possible with mirrorless.

Each of us has different ideas of what "worthy, capable, affordable" means, and how that is expressed in the market will control the timing of the "transition."

 

[AvTvM]

I'll specify it: I expect *worthy* MILC systems from all 3 players to be available from early 2019. And I expect in 2020 already way more mirrorless cams sold than DSLRs. And by 2021 I see the ratio somewhere around 80:20. From there on out mirrorslappers will only be bought by a few diehards ... similar to those folks who bought film Canon 1D and Nikon F6 film cameras until production was finally ended. Or to people buying vinyl LPs or shooting analogue film today.

 

[dak723]

Who cares if more mirrorless or DSLRs are sold? When the same camera makers make both - it won't even matter to them. People on forums like this seem to believe that by predicting the future sales of each that they are somehow demonstrating their great intelligence. How funny! Anyone with half a brain understands that DSLRs and Mirrorless are not competing with one another, so it doesn't matter one iota to anyone. It's like arguing which is the better fruit, an apple or an orange.

 

[BillB]

I'll specify it: I expect *worthy* MILC systems from all 3 players to be available from early 2019. And I expect in 2020 already way more mirrorless cams sold than DSLRs. And by 2021 I see the ratio somewhere around 80:20. From there on out mirrorslappers will only be bought by a few diehards ... similar to those folks who bought film Canon 1D and Nikon F6 film cameras until production was finally ended. Or to people buying vinyl LPs or shooting analogue film today.

And how many *worthy* MILC systems would you say are now available for purchase, either FF or aps-c?

 

[Orangutan]

Who cares if more mirrorless or DSLRs are sold?...Anyone with half a brain understands that DSLRs and Mirrorless are not competing with one another, so it doesn't matter one iota to anyone. It's like arguing which is the better fruit, an apple or an orange.

+1

The only question is whether the value (to me) is high enough that I want to purchase and use it.

 

[Loswr]

Anybody believing that "jury is out" whether mirrorless cameras are the (near!) future is ... delusional.

Should I report you for a personal attack? :

 

[Dylan777]

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

But only Sony will have the dynamic range to capture it. But only if they improve the weather sealing to survive the event...

2hrs walking in the rain around HongKong, street photography, my a7r II + FE 55mm didn't have any issues. 6hrs plus shooting with same combo in the mountain with snow storm, again no issues.

Don't give such a comment if you haven't touch the product.

If you let me know your PayPal account, I'll send you $1 in the sincere hope that you use it to buy a modicum of a sense of humor.

dynamic range, weather sealing....about add lack of native lenses to complete the joke.

 

[Mikehit]

Jopa, you're correct -- there are different concerns at different levels of SLRs, and yeah, some XXXXD and Rebel folks might not even notice the mirror being pulled.

Anyone I have spoken to about buying their first 'serious camera' wants a camera 'like the pros use'. They won't care if it has a mirror or not but as long as it looks like what the pros use that will be OK - and that means a decent size that 'feels' right' and a proper viewfinder. Some people worry about what the camera weighs, most worry about its size and the xxxxD range are little bigger than mirrorless models once you put a lens on the front. If these people do not see a benefit that outweighs having a camera 'like the pros use' then they will buy the DSLR.

Reading the posts on many forums, I sometimes get the feeling that the key market for mirrorless are experienced DSLR users who want a smaller second system or are fed up of carrying DSLR at all and they realise the cost benefits of weight vs image quality. Newbies do not have that comparison so the idea of DSLR being a 'proper' camera is harder to shake.

 

[Jack Douglas]

Who cares if more mirrorless or DSLRs are sold? When the same camera makers make both - it won't even matter to them. People on forums like this seem to believe that by predicting the future sales of each that they are somehow demonstrating their great intelligence. How funny! Anyone with half a brain understands that DSLRs and Mirrorless are not competing with one another, so it doesn't matter one iota to anyone. It's like arguing which is the better fruit, an apple or an orange.

I read CR for the humour. Those who cut back on CR and venture out with their cameras, whatever they be, are the real winners.

BTW, the apple is the clear winner, it keeps the Dr. away.

Jack

 

[Mikehit]

Anybody believing that "jury is out" whether mirrorless cameras are the (near!) future is ... delusional.

Has anyone denied mirrorless are the future?
Define what you mean by 'near future'

 

[ahsanford]

As soon as there are *WORTHY, CAPABLE, AFFORDABLE* mirrorless camera systems (including lenses) both for APS-C and for FF offered by all 3 major players [Ca/Ni/SO], the switch will happen very quickly.

Just think of the transitions from film to digital or from vinyl LP to CD, from CD to download, from download to streaming. At first it took a number of years with not very much happening and as soon as it reached some critical mass, full transition happened very quickly.

Anybody believing that "jury is out" whether mirrorless cameras are the (near!) future is ... delusional.

Mirrorless will take over. I am not disagreeing with that. I am disagreeing as to when that will happen.

If CaNikon continue to build Rebels, D5500, etc. and mirrorless doesn't climb above SLRs on the pecking order for performance / feature -per-dollar reasons, SLRs will continue to sell in nontrivial numbers. So yes, mirrorless will continue to grow, but with a very strong value-propositioned entry SLR on offer, mirrorless can't realistically 'flip' the market over to its side of the ledger.

So I argue the tipping point to mirrorless (for companies that sell both SLRs and mirrorless rigs) will come when Canon and Nikon decide it is time to occur and offer the next Rebel or D5500 without a mirror. Bang. There's your migration.

And no, Sony will not steal all the APS-C or FF market share over to mirrorless to cause this tipping phenomenon. Those market shifts don't happen overnight, Canon (in particular) will see that coming and then making more aggressive mirrorless moves themselves.

I just don't see a mirrorless market miracle happening without the #1 camera company driving that migration directly.

- A

 

[AvTvM]

mirrorless vs. mirrorslappers is not öike aüples and oranges. it is like automobile vs. horse-drawn cart.

 

[Jopa]

mirrorless vs. mirrorslappers is not öike aüples and oranges. it is like automobile vs. horse-drawn cart.

It would be a valid comparison for a film vs digital sensor cameras. I don't think it's applicable to the case of mirrorless vs DSLR where both represent the same digital sensor at the end. It's more like carburetor vs injector on a gasoline engine. If someone takes a picture with a DSLR and another one with a mirrorless - good luck figuring out which is which

 

[Loswr]

mirrorless vs. mirrorslappers is not öike aüples and oranges. it is like automobile vs. horse-drawn cart.

AvTvM vs. good analogies is like oranges vs. Sputnik.