Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina

[Canon Rumors]

Keith Cooper's take: ;D

Speculation time ...I note that there is a similar list at CR, and since I disagree with many of their thoughts, I thought I'd put up my own thoughts (so BIG pinch of salt required)

1Ds4 - to launch this year
1D5 - no merger yet. Maybe a new 1D mark 5 in 2012, with internals based on 1Ds4 (Digic V) - limited availability for the Olympics
5D3 - a Photokina 2012 camera
7D2 - late 2012/early 2013 - new higher MP sensor and faster
70D - 2013
650D - 2012 (similar sensor but Digic V)
and some wild cards...
3D - destined to remain in 'Fabled' status for quite some time
6D, 8D, 9D - more potential model numbers

We're pretty close other than the EOS-1s, Keith wants a 1Ds Mark IV pretty badly... perhaps he can will it to happen!

My mind will probably change in the next month when the real leaks start to happen about November 3.

 

[Babarous]

"If the 5D3 moves up the latter in performance and price, a $2000 full frame camera at launch would be an industry first and a massive seller. Canon was the first company to break the $1000 price barrier with a DSLR, no reason they can’t do it again."

What the heck? A850 was full frame and under $2000 at launch date.

 

[Canon Rumors]

"If the 5D3 moves up the latter in performance and price, a $2000 full frame camera at launch would be an industry first and a massive seller. Canon was the first company to break the $1000 price barrier with a DSLR, no reason they can’t do it again."

What the heck? A850 was full frame and under $2000 at launch date.

You're right, I forget Sony exists. The correction has been posted.

 

[Sebmour]

I always find it funny when people talk bad about the AF system of the 5DII. The centre point is the best on the market. The rest are a little useless unless under good light. (I have tracked Nascar coming towards me in Montreal, Canada with my 200 f2LIS)

The AF on my 1D4 is junk in low light. As soon as I pass 3200 ISO...my AF will not lock on lower contrast subject while my 5DII will lock on right away. The D3 series locks on without any issues also. (This has been tested in my home under the same condition for all 3 cameras)

Just to point out...since people will have a hard time believing my fact above, I shoot 1D4, 5DII, 24LII, 35L, 50 1.4, 85LII, 135L, 200LIS. In both cameras I use the S type focusing screen.

I have email Canon CPS...still awaiting a reply after 2 weeks!

I am hoping for a 5DIII.
I am wishing for a FF of 24MP, ISO 6400 clean like ISO 1600 (on 5DII), Same center point AF but better side points AF. Same Battery, 100% viewfinder with a good magnification, improvement on weather sealing (rubber gasket instead of foam), same ergonomics, same IQ (this is the hard part), 5FPS, Full HD 24, 30 and 60 FPS with a better rendering. This would be perfect for me and I would pay 3500-4000$ for such a camera.

I am also wishing for an APS-H Ef mount camcorder. Full HD, 24, 30, 60, 120 FPS, B&W viewfinder, XLR sound connectors, Integrated ND's, Zebra, Focus assist, full HD monitor output, 4" LCD screen for focus puller. I would pay 4000-5000$ for such a camcorder.

ENjoy the day!

 

[Gothmoth]

i think canon will of course make an adapter for EF lenses to their mirrorless system.
i see no reason why they should not.

 

[sandro]

They should just stop using this 3y cycle for products that just leaves old products around where the competition advances. They should release a NEW revolutionary product NOW, I don't care when the previous model was released.
I care for video mainly and the video part is so so so prehistoric.

 

[bvukich]

You're right, I forget Sony exists. The correction has been posted.

Don't feel bad, it's relatively easy to do.

I don't know if I have a case of "pick on the new kid" or not, but I just don't see any compelling argument to buy into the Sony ecosphere (or lack thereof).

Canon, Nikon, even Pentax; I can see the benefits to each, depending on where you're coming from, and where you're headed. Sony, not so much. They make some good sensors, but I think Nikon does a better job of wrapping a camera around them than Sony themselves. Plus Nikon, like Canon, actually has an ecosphere. Sony has minimal third party support, and only recently could you even rent lenses anywhere.

I'm admittedly biased against the Sony the parent company, and have a smoldering hatred for some of their subsidiaries; but I'll gladly give credit where credit is due. I'm just not confident they're in it for the long haul. That being said, I do hope they are. More competition is ALWAYS better for the customer. And if nothing else, they will (and probably already have) drive Canon and Nikon to release better products at a faster pace.

 

[pedro]

I am hoping for a 5DIII.
I am wishing for a FF of 24MP, ISO 6400 clean like ISO 1600 (on 5DII), Same center point AF but better side points AF. Same Battery, 100% viewfinder with a good magnification, improvement on weather sealing (rubber gasket instead of foam), same ergonomics, same IQ (this is the hard part), 5FPS, Full HD 24, 30 and 60 FPS with a better rendering. This would be perfect for me and I would pay 3500-4000$ for such a camera.

@Sebmour: I do not understand a lot of tech. So given your inmense knowledge you get very easily to an actual calculation for a 5Diii according to that. My only question is: If that was real, wouldn't it come to a real gap in pricing between a next lower 7D? Your draft leaves room for a 6D in the US $ 2000-2500 segment then. If such a body was aimed towards lesser MP and equal ISO performance, lesser video facilities (which never will use, once going back FF after 30 years) I'll buy that day one. 8) Cheers, Pedro

 

[x-vision]

I think EOS will evolve a lot in the coming 12 months, the business of digital SLRs has changed with the advent of video in the segment. I figured I’d offer my opinion on the line partially based on things I’ve been told and things that just make sense to me.

Some of your points make a lot of sense but I also have different views on others.

A merged 1-series (1DV)
I find it strange that this camera is not out yet.
Canon, the pioneer of large DSLR sensors, currently does not have a pro FF model on the market - after the 1DsIII has been officially discontinued in some countries (e.g. Canada) and unofficially discontinued in others.

6D
With a merged 1-series, it is very likely that we'll see two FF models positioned under the king of the hill.
If I was working for Canon marketing, the 5-series will be split into a 5DIII ($2500) and a little 1-series ($4000).
The little 1-series camera will be basically the 1-series but without the integrated grip and some other minor differences.

7DII, 70D, etc.
The business of DSLRs has changed indeed.
With the D7000 and the A77/Nex-7, the price point of the 'enthusiast' class of cameras has moved down to $1200.
At the same time, we see mirrorless eating at the bottom of the DSLR market.
I thus expect some major changes of the non-FF lineup.
Canon needs an ultra-compact Rebel (if not mirrorless) and an appealing $1200 offering.
This will affect all 1.6x models. Can't predict at this time what will happen but I see re-alignments in all three model lines - Rebel, xxD, and 7D.

 

[Meh]

More competition is ALWAYS better for the customer. And if nothing else, they will (and probably already have) drive Canon and Nikon to release better products at a faster pace.

Absolutely!

 

[chardinej]

I disagree on one point. I shoot the 1DIV in a less-than-semi-professional capacity. I would like nothing more than a mirrorless body to fit on a super-tele that would lighten the load hugely, give me say 20-30 fps, FF at 20-30 mp and be ultrafast at autofocusing and processing the images. My 1DIV is the size and weight it is to allow a mirror to flap up and down at a rate that will get me 10fps. Get rid of all that overhead and you are left with a mirrorless, pro body. That's what Canon should produce.

 

[Zuuyi]

I want a FF under 2k. $1999 is a lot easier to pay then $2500.
I don't care about FPS. I want a portrait/wedding standard. But I just don't see it happening. I don't want crop but I don't need a 5d3. It's hard to justify such a camera. I'm sorry I will pay 2000 instead of the 3200 5d kit price; and get the Tamron 25-75/1.8, Sigma 1.4, and still have $200 in my pocket.
But it's likely I will just have to buy a 5D2 because it will still be a Great camera when the 5d3 comes out.

I'm hoping for a $2000 price point for the 5d3 (not likely); for the mythical 3d to get a 3500 price point a some space in the price range. This would make the 7d a prosumer sports shooter and the 5d3 would get more people who planned on the 7d to move up.

I just don't see a 6d showing up in the line up (even though I want it); and I don't see a purpose for a 2-4d; what professional need is missing that will fall in the 2500-5000 price point. Only one I see is a Camera that does 4k to fight against Red.

 

[niccyboy]

Would love the 5dmk3 to pop up for a release soon, I currently operate with a few mk2s and a 7d, and just hate that 5d focus, and 7d's poor low light and weak colours... besides that they are still good units.

I also was an early adopter of hdslr video, with rigs, follow focuses etc, and have since changed to Sony Nex VG10s due to the ergonomics, audio quality, autofocus, and ability to put eos adapters on it. So an EOS mount video camera would be snapped up immediately.

I almost went up to the 1d recently but decided to get another body to run a short and long lens simultaneously as i couldnt justify the extra cost vs the features. I think Canon are shooting themselves in the foot if they don't put a bigger gap between the 5dmk3 and the 1d's.

my 2 cents!

 

[photogaz]

6D - Haha, there's no way in hell Canon would release another 9 type auto focus system - It's TOO dated!

 

[jimmy156]

Tommorow - 12 Months
November 3rd, 2011
5Dmk3 - Welcome to Hollywod. Same Full Frame. Digic V. No More Megapixels, we don't need them. Big push is in Video. And for god's sake no Rotating Screen. If you can afford this camera you can get a secondary screen for video; and for on the go photographer's the screen is the weakest point. Cycle says 2011; 3 years 1 month
which is November 2011(sounds familiar). * Edit - And the fact that Red is having an annoucement the same day says High End EOS & Video. Which Screams 5d3 to me*

Jan - Feb 2012
1Dmk5 - Olympics. Speed. Speed. Speed. 4 year cycle says 2011. But I think early 2012. Plus the current one is Digic 3 and that needs to be updated. Canon loves those huge L Lenses at sporting events; so they will release it Jan-Feb 2012 so they can update before June.

Feb - Mar 2012
7Dmk2 & T4i - I think they will be released at the same time Digic 5 of course. 7d going even further in the Video world. Feb-Mar 2012

13-24 months

January 2013
1DsmkIV - No rush but it is the flagship for studio photographers. 40 Megapixels, and not a pixel less. January 2013.

Feb - Mar 2013
T5i - Like Clockwork. The income sheet needs it's annual boost. Feb-Mar 2013

Summer - Fall 2013
60mkII - Updated; time for the 7dmk2 to sell. Getting T2i, T3i, and T4i owners to upgrade for some more advanced video options. Summer - Fall 2013.

I don't see a 3d or 6d being released anytime soon. They need to clean up the lines not add more.
They offer 13 DSLR models. They need to compact that list. Plus I don't see them using "3d" unless it's 3-D.

My wish is the list being compacted to
1Ds - 5 Year Cycle $7000
1D - 4 Year Cycle - $5000
5D - 3 Year Cycle - $2500
7D - 2 Year Cycle - $1500
XXD - 18 Month Cycle - $1000
XXXD - 1 Year Cycle - $750
XXXXD - 6 Month Cycle - $500

I don't really see those life cycles being so long. 1DIV is also dual digic 4 not 3. Also, how are there 13 models being offered? If you really see what's in stock you'll see that there's only the 1D, 5DII, 7D, 60D, 600D, and the crappy low end one. that's like 6 models.

O/T but this attitude irritates me. I know everyone here will be a gear/tech freak, but that doesent make low end camera's "crappy" This shot for example was taken with an 1000d and 18-55 kit lens... and was highly commended in the prestigous wildlife photographer of the year award.

 

[goodmane]

Sounds reasonable. I just hope Canon bring out a full frame camera with a built-in flash like Nikon D700 as well as movie mode. Otherwise I might as well ditch my SLR system as I currently use my Canon G9/smartphone for loads of video and unfortunately my 5D stays at home for weeks gathering dust.

With a built-in flash and movie mode I would consider holding off purchase of micro 4/3 or Fuji x100 or waiting for Canon equivalent, and maybe just buy a small 35mm prime.

I would also dearly love to replace my large 24-70L f2.8 with a 24-70 f4 L that was half the size but still had good bokeh and distortion as opposed to the not so great and still fairly large (in my opinion) 24-105L.

 

[Meh]

O/T but this attitude irritates me. I know everyone here will be a gear/tech freak, but that doesent make low end camera's "crappy" This shot for example was taken with an 1000d and 18-55 kit lens... and was highly commended in the prestigous wildlife photographer of the year award.

That's right, and great photo by the way. Please realize that most people on this forum do know that great photos can be taken with "crappy" cameras. Very cool photos can be taken with camera phones which most people, including pro photographers, carry around with them. Most gearheads on this site also have a P&S but probably a pretty good one rather than a crappy one

You do touch on a good point. There is a tendency to begin referring to anything less than the best available or even an ideal soon-to-be-announced camera to be "crappy". The 7D has been called crappy. The 5D2 focus has been called crappy. Etc. Well, that's just not true in absolute terms... comparatively, there might be some other camera that does a slightly better job at a particular feature but suddenly it's as if there's a night and day difference. The Sony sensor in the Nikon D7000 had an extra stop of DR at low ISO and suddenly every other camera out there is crap, outdated, etc. Nonsense.

To be fair, there are many pundits on here for focusing on real world image quality so there's a balance in the discussions. No one feature or attribute is the best in all situations. That's not to say each new feature or attribute isn't important. They all are under certain situations. Sports shooters need high frame rates, landscape photographers do not. Everyone can benefit from higher DR at times but not every scene has even 10 stops of DR and in fact some photos look better with less DR so the photographer will clip the shadow details in photoshop to get more contrast and many other examples.

Gear is good. Technology is good. And it's cool when camera manufacturers give us something that hasn't been possible in the past. Every camera has it's use from an iPhone all the way to a 1D4 and medium format. Film is good so is digital... they each have different benefits and limitations.

It's fun. No need for anyone to be offended or irritated except if anyone is rude or disrespectful to others and those trolls know who they are.

 

[Woody]

I seriously doubt Canon will commit commercial suicide by NOT releasing an update to any of their APS-C camera. New/updates for 1D/5D/3D/6D all sound nice and dandy but represent only a small fraction of Canon's income source. They must be seriously stupid if they shy away from mirrorless bodies... especially since every major player has already released a mirrorless camera except Canon.

 

[Woody]

The business of DSLRs has changed indeed.
With the D7000 and the A77/Nex-7, the price point of the 'enthusiast' class of cameras has moved down to $1200.
At the same time, we see mirrorless eating at the bottom of the DSLR market.
I thus expect some major changes of the non-FF lineup.
Canon needs an ultra-compact Rebel (if not mirrorless) and an appealing $1200 offering.
This will affect all 1.6x models. Can't predict at this time what will happen but I see re-alignments in all three model lines - Rebel, xxD, and 7D.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[foobar]

My take on "What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina":

Overall I don't think we'll see many surprises, mainly incremental updates except for the 1Ds.
I'd love to see Canon playing with some new concepts (hybrid viewfinder anyone?) but Canon seems to be pretty conservative in that regard.


EOS 1D/1Ds
I think a fast FF camera is overdue and I also think that APS-H is on it's way out. I've said this before and I know that some people think differently about the topic, but Nikon upped the game with the D3 and it's Canons turn to catch up - but now they'll have to compete with the upcoming D4. Also, we can expect Canon's new processor to be fast enough to allow for high speed and high resolution at the same time.

To please the current APS-H shooters, I could imagine Canon offering an APS-H crop-mode, probably in combination with an LCD viewfinder overlay (they could show the outline or even completely black out the unused parts of the frame). I also think that they'll continue to sell the 1D4 as long as there's demand for it.


5DIII/3D/6D

There will be a 5DIII.
If there will be a cheaper FF camera, I'm pretty sure it will be the 5DIII and not a 6D or something like that. I'm still of the opinion that the 5D series is Canon's "cheap FF" series. What would you do to make the 5D2 cheaper? Plastic body? Penta mirror VF? Worse AF? Slower FPS? Not really. Feature-wise the 5D2 already plays in the same league as the XXD series (before the 60D), so the next step would be to make it the "FF rebel". I don't think we want Canon to go there.

Anyway, I think the most likely scenario is that the 5DIII is simply an evolutionary upgrade to the 5DII. Better AF, new sensor, new processor, a lot of new software features. I don't expect any surprise moves from Canon.


7D Mark II
Might get launched at Photokina 2012 but not before that.


70D
No idea, really. We'll probably either see this or the 7D2 at Photokina (with the other camera being released in 2013).


650D
Will probably be released as a minor update to the 600D in early 2012. It will probably just switch to Digic 5 and add a few minor features like video AF (similar to Nikon). In the entry-level camera class this has become almost like fashion. Every manufacturer needs something new each year, so consumers don't think they're buying "old tech".