Sony to capture all the non-Canon sensor sales

[SPKoko]

I have just read this interesting article:

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/more-doom-and-gloom.html

where Thom Hogan analyzes the latest Sony’s financial presentation and he concludes that:

I’m sure that Sony fanboys reading the chart might notice and jump up and down about one aspect: near 100% market share in Compact DSC sensor sales. Heck, if you do the math properly, they’re also projecting near 100% capture of the non-Canon ILC market, too.

That is, if it were not for Canon, all the sensors would be manufactured by Sony, that would get a monopoly in imaging sensors...

My interpretation of this is: Nikon users should be very grateful to Canon for not buying APS-C/FF sensors to Canon. If Canon bought Sony sensors too, Sony could charge whatever they wanted for their sensors!!!

 

[Giovanni]

There are many more than Sony, there are Toshiba, Samsung, Panasonic , Renesas, Aptina, Omnivision to mention a few, so don't worry

 

[distant.star]

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Interesting forecast suggesting the maturity of the digital camera market.

The glaring error for me is the assumption that no one makes image sensors except Sony and Canon. There are other companies involved and to varying degrees.

Also, this post doesn't seem to belong in the EOS Bodies section.

 

[SPKoko]

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The glaring error for me is the assumption that no one makes image sensors except Sony and Canon. There are other companies involved and to varying degrees.

Well, if you study carefully the slide, you will see that the orange ball (the ILC one) does not grow in size (total units) but it is expected to move from ~30% of market share (2013) to ~45% of market share (2017 forecast). Taking into account that the current Canon ILC market share could be between 40% and 50%, that is why, in my opinion, Thom says that Sony aims to capture almost all the non-Canon market share by 2017.

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Also, this post doesn't seem to belong in the EOS Bodies section.

Please excuse me if I posted in the wrong section. If any mod is reading this, please feel free to move the post to a more suitable section.

 

[jrista]

There are many more than Sony, there are Toshiba, Samsung, Panasonic , Renesas, Aptina, Omnivision to mention a few, so don't worry

There are these. Aside from Toshiba and Samsung, however, I am not sure that sensors from the others are currently used in photography cameras. I think most are used in video cameras and small form factor cameras...smartphones, machine vision, scientific, etc.


Toshiba has a fairly small presence. I think Samsung currently only has their sensors in their own cameras, although I could be wrong about that. That gives Sony a MONSTER share of the market, which from a competitive and consumer standpoint, is kind of worrying.

 

[Giovanni]

Nikon use Sony,Toshiba and Renesas made sensors .Toshiba in for example d7100 and Renesas in D3, D3S, D4.
Olympus and Panasonic, Fuji use lot of Panasonic sensors.

 

[jrista]

Nikon useSony, Toshiba and Renesas made sensors .Toshiba in for example d7100 and Renesas in D3, D3S, D4.
Olympus and Panasonic use lot of Panasonic sensors so also does Fuji

Right. Were talking about a handful of cameras for three sensor manufacturers. That is still a pittance compared to the market share that Sony has. Long term, that is not really a great situation for consumers, especially given the predicament of Olympus and Panasonic. Fuji still has some good market share. I don't know how many of their sensors are Panasonic, though.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Sony seems to be getting it, they are dropping their smart phone failing business, and concentrating on growth where they can make some $$$.


http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/info/irday2014electronics/devices_E.pdf

 

[Lawliet]

Long term, that is not really a great situation for consumers

You always have the pure play foundries, those have the required skills, tools and experience with mixed signal and MEMS to create whatever you want at a structure size that makes even the most advanced DSC sensors feel ancient. Basically Samsung's current sensor is an example, even if the fab is owned by the same conglomerate.

That also keeps Nikon in a good position for negotiations, they have their own designs - Sony has to offer something competitive at a price delineated by the costs for a production run at any of those foundries.

 

[c.d.embrey]

The most important quotes. "Just to stay at the same revenue levels as this year the camera makers would probably have to increase their average selling prices 2x or so just to hold ground. Look out Leica, you’re going to have company."

The doubling of camera prices in just four (4) short years "...try to wean yourself off the credit-card-as-therapy trip..."

And "Automotive use alone eclipses the camera market we currently know, and by a substantive amount (3x the sensor unit sales)."

Camera sensor sales become unimportant to Sony's bottom-line. So R&D money goes to profitable products

BTW I'm glad I still have FILM cameras and a light meter (and know how to us it) There is no effing way I'll spend $2,400.00 on an 80D or $6,500.00 on a 5D4. YMMV.

 

[Lawliet]

There is no effing way I'll spend $2,400.00 on an 80D or $6,500.00 on a 5D4. YMMV.

Spend 1200 on the big cam instead of 1000 on a DSLR and 200 on a compact and it works out.
Bonus points: some lenses other then the kit one keep the revenue also up w/o increasing the camera prices.

 

[AvTvM]

Sensors are and will be a commodity. Solid state mirrorless cameras will halve current dslr prices and deliver superior imaging capability. No need to panic. We are the buyers. Them ... Are just suppliers. If We dont buy, we will take pictures with our current cams. They go bust.

 

[c.d.embrey]

Sensors are and will be a commodity. Solid state mirrorless cameras will halve current dslr prices and deliver superior imaging capability. No need to panic. We are the buyers. Them ... Are just suppliers. If We dont buy, we will take pictures with our current cams. They go bust.

So you think that Canon, Nikon, etc, etc going "bust" is a GOOD THING ??? If that happens "buyers" will have no-one to buy from

 

[c.d.embrey]

There is no effing way I'll spend $2,400.00 on an 80D or $6,500.00 on a 5D4. YMMV.

Spend 1200 on the big cam instead of 1000 on a DSLR and 200 on a compact and it works out.
Bonus points: some lenses other then the kit one keep the revenue also up w/o increasing the camera prices.

Could you please explain. I haven't a clue to the meaning of "big cam" ???

 

[AvTvM]

Sensors are and will be a commodity. Solid state mirrorless cameras will halve current dslr prices and deliver superior imaging capability. No need to panic. We are the buyers. Them ... Are just suppliers. If We dont buy, we will take pictures with our current cams. They go bust.

So you think that Canon, Nikon, etc, etc going "bust" is a GOOD THING ??? If that happens "buyers" will have no-one to buy from

No problem, then we will capture images using sony or samsung cameras. Suppöiers dont matter all that much. We, the customers matter. Suppliers dont make what we want ... They'll go bust!

 

[c.d.embrey]

Sensors are and will be a commodity. Solid state mirrorless cameras will halve current dslr prices and deliver superior imaging capability. No need to panic. We are the buyers. Them ... Are just suppliers. If We dont buy, we will take pictures with our current cams. They go bust.

So you think that Canon, Nikon, etc, etc going "bust" is a GOOD THING ??? If that happens "buyers" will have no-one to buy from

No problem, then we will capture images using sony or samsung cameras. Suppöiers dont matter all that much. We, the customers matter. Suppliers dont make what we want ... They'll go bust!

Please reread. "Canon, Nikon, etc, etc" Should be read as ALL CAMERA MANUFACTUERS.

BTW with the way camera sales are dropping there may be no camera buyers left in four (4) years. By then 99% of photography may be done with camera-phones and surveillance cameras

 

[jrista]

Sensors are and will be a commodity. Solid state mirrorless cameras will halve current dslr prices and deliver superior imaging capability. No need to panic. We are the buyers. Them ... Are just suppliers. If We dont buy, we will take pictures with our current cams. They go bust.

So you think that Canon, Nikon, etc, etc going "bust" is a GOOD THING ??? If that happens "buyers" will have no-one to buy from

No problem, then we will capture images using sony or samsung cameras. Suppöiers dont matter all that much. We, the customers matter. Suppliers dont make what we want ... They'll go bust!

Canon and Nikon going bust would be a disaster for everyone who has untold thousands invested in their lenses and other accessories. Adapters only take you so far. Maybe in some cases adapters may work well enough for most things, but there are special use cases where going with a camera system is better. Canon and Nikon going bust wouldn't be a good thing for anyone. Having used the A7r, I would still rather get a Nikon D810 for the sensor, rather than the A7r. It is just FAR more expensive to get the D810, since you need lenses as well (Canon lenses cannot be adapted)...so I have not. You cannot underestimate the value of an existing kit of lenses (which, if Canon were to go bust, would effectively render my entire kit "worthless"...and thus unsellable.)

 

[jrista]

Sensors are and will be a commodity. Solid state mirrorless cameras will halve current dslr prices and deliver superior imaging capability. No need to panic. We are the buyers. Them ... Are just suppliers. If We dont buy, we will take pictures with our current cams. They go bust.

So you think that Canon, Nikon, etc, etc going "bust" is a GOOD THING ??? If that happens "buyers" will have no-one to buy from

No problem, then we will capture images using sony or samsung cameras. Suppöiers dont matter all that much. We, the customers matter. Suppliers dont make what we want ... They'll go bust!

Please reread. "Canon, Nikon, etc, etc" Should be read as ALL CAMERA MANUFACTUERS.

BTW with the way camera sales are dropping there may be no camera buyers left in four (4) years. By then 99% of photography may be done with camera-phones and surveillance cameras

This is highly doubtful. The market is not going to disappear. It may contract, but it will not disappear. The P&S market is definitely suffering from the explosion of high quality cameras in smartphones, but those are still and never will be a replacement for the kind of giant sensors you get in a proper ILC. One way or another, the ILC market will persist. This is just Sony's interpretation of market trends...that doesn't make it the bible's truth. It is also based on PAST data...which, as everyone should know, is no indication of future trends.


Most markets have cycles. Some markets have very long cycles. The introduction of quality phone cameras is disruptive, and is thus impacting the cycle for ILC cameras. I don't think it is going to topple the ILC market entirely...I don't think smartphones have the power to. Different tools for different jobs. One is for your average snapshots, the other is for serious photography. Sure, some people go crazy, get additional lenses for their iPhones, and produce some great works of art...but 99% of smartphones are used to create instagram fodder.


I hand out a lot of my photography business cards these days, and people always ask me how I get my photos. When I explain the kind of camera I use, most are quite intrigued, and some (including one just a couple days ago) end up buying their own DSLR. I think there is still appeal...I think in many ways, potential customers simply don't know the options are out there, or if they do, they don't know why they would get anything other than their phone. WHEN they know of the options and why the options exist...many people do want more, want better, want more flexible, faster, etc.


The ILC market will not be toppled by smartphones.

 

[c.d.embrey]

This is highly doubtful. The market is not going to disappear. It may contract, but it will not disappear. The P&S market is definitely suffering from the explosion of high quality cameras in smartphones, but those are still and never will be a replacement for the kind of giant sensors you get in a proper ILC. One way or another, the ILC market will persist. This is just Sony's interpretation of market trends...that doesn't make it the bible's truth. It is also based on PAST data...which, as everyone should know, is no indication of future trends.


Most markets have cycles. Some markets have very long cycles. The introduction of quality phone cameras is disruptive, and is thus impacting the cycle for ILC cameras. I don't think it is going to topple the ILC market entirely...I don't think smartphones have the power to. Different tools for different jobs. One is for your average snapshots, the other is for serious photography. Sure, some people go crazy, get additional lenses for their iPhones, and produce some great works of art...but 99% of smartphones are used to create instagram fodder.

The ILC market will not be toppled by smartphones.

If Thom Hogan is right "Just to stay at the same revenue levels as this year the camera makers would probably have to increase their average selling prices 2x or so just to hold ground. Look out Leica, you’re going to have company." How many people will buy Double Priced Rebels, xxD and Pro cameras ??? Will photography go-away as a main-stream hobby ???

Remember the old saying "Every day, in every way, I'm getting better and better" This really does apply to camera-phones. I can't wait to see how good the camera will be in an Apple iPhone10

 

[dgatwood]

If Thom Hogan is right "Just to stay at the same revenue levels as this year the camera makers would probably have to increase their average selling prices 2x or so just to hold ground. Look out Leica, you’re going to have company." How many people will buy Double Priced Rebels, xxD and Pro cameras ??? Will photography go-away as a main-stream hobby ???

Photography was a mainstream hobby even when people were paying three bucks for a 24-shot roll of film and several more bucks for processing and prints. Photography has never been cheaper than it is right now. It can go higher without destroying the market.

Besides, they can also keep prices flat by reducing the number of models so their R&D expenses are spread across more copies per design.

Remember the old saying "Every day, in every way, I'm getting better and better" This really does apply to camera-phones. I can't wait to see how good the camera will be in an Apple iPhone10

They're getting better, but they're still tiny sensors with tiny lenses and typically no zoom capabilities. And for that to change would turn them into point-and-shoot cameras, which would be clumsy to carry around and use as phones.