The Canon EOS R3 will be $5999 USD

Jan 27, 2020
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All I said was that folks are acting as if it's an impossible theory, NOT that it doesn't require effort. Having worked in project management for well over a decade I fully understand the life cycle of things and what it takes to change something at the development stage, but that doesn't make it impossible, especially if it's determined that the level of work and cost is warranted. It's just funny to me that people are so adamant what Canon is and isn't doing when the reality is, not a single one of us knows what Canon did, no matter how far-fetched or labor intensive it may have been. Just because people think it doesn't make sense certainly doesn't mean it didn't happen. That's my only point, and unless you work for Canon and know exactly what went on, you can't refute that point.
So glad to see how proud you are of your theory! Of course, since none of us work for Canon, we have no proof that your theory is impossible. How lucky you must feel that this is so!

All that aside, I am glad that your theory is almost certainly - but not provably - wrong. Since the release cycle for their 1 series cameras has been every 4 years, and released in time for the summer Olympics, if this was going to be the R1, then it would mean that they were rushing out their latest 1 series camera (plus, almost certainly ensuring lower sales, since the 1DX III was released less than 2 years ago). I don't care about sales, of course, but just pointing out another reason why your theory is most likely totally invalid. But, personally, I would rather Canon stick to the statements they have made indicating that they are not going to rush out a "flagship" camera, but will ensure that they have every issue and innovation worked out to the best of their ability. I think long time Canon owners do not want to see Canon take on the Sony philosophy of releasing cameras in what many folks considered "beta"versions. I'm not sure they would have the patience, or the gullibility, of those early Sony adapters who bought the first 2 generations of the A7 series cameras. As a Canon user for over 25 years, I would have been really pissed if Canon released such sub-par cameras with the thought that I can just buy the next version, which will fix all those issues...at full price, of course. I did own, for a brief time, the A7 and the A7 II, so I speak with at least my own experience about these cameras. Luckily I was able to see their deficiencies within the return window timeframe and did not lose any money. One could argue that the entire FF Sony A series was a Beta version, as many claim that the camera was originally designed to be APS-C and then changed at the last minute to FF. So I guess last minute changes are possible!

But for a "flagship" camera that will have a heavy price tag, I hope Canon takes their time to get things right. I think, as others have pointed out, that the R3 is a way to go part way there on the way to what they hope to accomplish with the R1.
 
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R3 is a stacked BSI and will be a much better camera ergonomically so that cancells out the 50mp depending on ones use case. The R1 is likely going to be the one camera to rule them all and will be priced accordingly.
The R1 is a unicorn at the moment. Th3 r3 doesn't beat the A1, and you can always get a grip for the a1, which I think it's nice to have the option to have a smaller body when needed. Frankly this seems like the mirrorless version of the 1dIII with the addition of the new iris tracking AF.
 
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DBounce

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For comparison here are the rumored Nikon Z9 flagship specs. Price is rumored to be between $6K - 7K:


Nikon Z9 mirrorless cameras:

  • 8256 x 5504px resolution that confirms a 45MP stacked sensor (it is interesting to note that Canon decided to go with a 24MP sensor for their R3 camera).
  • The Z9 will be capable of up to 120 fps in a lower res file size (6Mb I think). Some reports even indicated 160 fps!
  • Built-in GPS – probably GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System).
  • The Z9 will use the same battery as D6. There will be also a new 18-type battery (EN-EL18x) that can be charged by the camera’s USB-C.
  • The sensor has multi leaf blade protective shutter that auto covers sensor when switched off/changing lens to stop dust and dirt on naked sensor.
  • The Z9 will have car autofocus in addition to animal and people AF as well as low light -7 EV.
  • Improved 3D tracking.
  • Improved articulated screen that even works in portrait mode – it is a completely new design.
  • New style locking flap for the two CFExpress memory cards.
  • Third joystick/selector added to use whilst camera close face and shooting.
  • Many new menu features to tweak and match your shooting style.
  • The shutter release sound level can be adjusted from silent to loud… so you can still get that D6 machine gun sound…
  • The official announcement is expected in the next 2 months, but do not expect many cameras to ship before the end of the year. Because of part shortage, the waiting time for the Z9 is expected to be very long.
 
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For comparison here are the rumored Nikon Z9 flagship specs. Price is rumored to be between $6K - 7K:

The difference is that Nikon have said the Z9 is going to be the top model of the Z line, whereas Canon have specifically said the R3 is their second-top model; the 1D X III is still Canon's #1 (literally) body and will remain so until a potential R1.

I expect what Canon are doing is replicating the 1D/1Ds split which lead the way for their digital SLRs prior to the 'X' merging. The change they've made is to name one of the models '3' rather than having two '1's, since last time it did cause some confusion.
So, what I am anticipating eventually happening is Canon having two 'integrated grip' models, the R3 being like the old 1D series which is optimised for sports and news where speed and in-camera jpg quality matters more than resolution, and an R1 being like the 1Ds line which is optimised for studio, landscape and architecture where resolution and the best possible raw quality is prioritised over speed.

A lot of people are expecting every mirrorless camera to carry on being jacks-of-all-trades like the last few top SLRs are. The problem is this is a full system reboot, just like when the industry moved to digital, and just like before that when everyone moved to automatic focus and exposure. So while there is advancement, there will also be some elements which regress; swapping to a whole new design is always two steps forward, one step back. We've seen the Sony a1 try to do everything in one and it's a very good camera in all regards, but the rolling shutter is a bit much for some sports pros, the raw quality is not quite as good for landscape as the a7R IV, etc. Everything about it is a 9/10, but nothing manages to hit 10/10. I'm not expecting the Z9 to be a diferent story; I'm sure it'll be great in every regard, but I don't see them making it the absolute best-in-class in any one single area.
By splitting your top performance across multiple bodies, each optimised for a specific requirement, Canon could actually make the R3 the top sports camera, while a potential R1 could be the top image quality camera. Instead of one camera that is a 9/10 in everything, they can make cameras which are 10/10 in a couple of key areas. And when you're a full-time, 24/7 professional, that extra optimisation for the specific task you need to do becomes everything. Dentists and lawyers who want the fanciest toy to show off down the country club will prefer the all-rounders, but there's a reason why for decades the sports sidelines have been dominated by Canon's sports-optimised bodies, while the resolution-optimised bodies have held the highest market share in product, fashion, and natural sciences photography.

There are positive rumours that Fujifilm will be doing this with the X-H2, having two bodies optimised for different purposes so pros can pick the body which is perfect for their particular uses, rather than settling on a body that is almost-but-not-quite perfect and paying for features they won't use.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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I expect what Canon are doing is replicating the 1D/1Ds split which lead the way for their digital SLRs prior to the 'X' merging.

Canon could actually make the R3 the top sports camera, while a potential R1 could be the top image quality camera.
Canon merged the 1D lines and effectively made the 5-series the go-to for wedding/studio work.

I suspect they’ll replicate that in their MILC lines. I don’t think they want their second-best camera on the sidelines of sporting events and winning WPI awards for war-zone images. They want their flagship to get that exposure, and that means a 1-series body.

Sports and PJ shooters don’t seem to require high MP, so the R1 will likely be 24-30 MP and launch in 2024, on schedule for the 4-year upgrade cycle of the 1-series and as a replacement for the 1D X III and the R3.

Canon has no need to rush a FF 1-series to market. They haven’t rushed anything about their MILC strategy. They were the last to enter the MILC market, and the last to enter the FF MILC market. They were and have remained the ILC market leader, despite all the dire predictions on CR forums about how they would suffer for being so ‘late’ and ‘behind’.

I’d expect an R5-series with a very high MP sensor in the next 1-2 years, aimed at studio/wedding shooters. The R3 will tide over those sports/PJ folks who want a Canon MILC, until the R1 arrives aimed at that group. Both will appeal to different sets of enthusiasts.

People here predicting a high MP R1 are doing so mainly because it’s what they want. In fact, I want one too, but I base my predictions on logic and observations, not on my personal desires.
 
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unfocused

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The difference is that Nikon have said the Z9 is going to be the top model of the Z line, whereas Canon have specifically said the R3 is their second-top model; the 1D X III is still Canon's #1 (literally) body and will remain so until a potential R1....

Your response is very thoughtful and makes a lot of good points. But, I think there are some glaring holes in there as well.

...what I am anticipating eventually happening is Canon having two 'integrated grip' models, the R3 being like the old 1D series which is optimised for sports and news where speed and in-camera jpg quality matters more than resolution, and an R1 being like the 1Ds line which is optimised for studio, landscape and architecture where resolution and the best possible raw quality is prioritised over speed...

I'm not sure what advantages a gripped 1 series style body would have for studio, landscape and architecture. What not simply use an R5 and if longer battery life is needed, add a grip. The 5 series has traditionally been more popular for these uses anyway.

...By splitting your top performance across multiple bodies, each optimised for a specific requirement, Canon could actually make the R3 the top sports camera, while a potential R1 could be the top image quality camera.

However, as @neuroanatomist has pointed out, one of Canon's big marketing ploys has been the lineup of sports photographers at top professional, Olympic and NCAA events all using Canon. He asked if Canon would really want to showcase its second-best camera in this way.

Dentists and lawyers who want the fanciest toy to show off down the country club will prefer the all-rounders...

If they want the fanciest toy wouldn't that be the R1?

...but there's a reason why for decades the sports sidelines have been dominated by Canon's sports-optimised bodies

See above comments about showcasing your second-best body.

...while the resolution-optimised bodies have held the highest market share in product, fashion, and natural sciences photography.

The 5 Series, which isn't going anyplace.

Not trying to pick on you, because I think yours was a well reasoned post, but as I said, there are some issues I can't get past. Mainly, I'm trying to envision what the actual market for an R1 will be and what targeting to that market will dictate in terms of features.

I am of at least two opinions right now:

1) The R3 is an interim body that Canon released because they just don't feel that mirrorless technology has advanced to the point where it deserves the 1 Series label. Under this theory, we would see the 1D remain as the flagship until 2024 and then, in time for the next Olympics, Canon announces a merger of the 1D x and R3 lines into an R1 and the R1 continues in the tradition of the 1D series.

2) Canon has determined that there is more money to be made selling high end cameras to enthusiasts who, in your words, "want the fanciest toys" than there is trying to sell to a shrinking professional market. In which case, the R1 will likely have a 45 mp or higher sensor and pack in every high tech bell and whistle they can dream up. This certainly seems to be the way the market is headed and if one needs proof of that, all you need do is take a look at the growing number of high-end tours provided by entities like National Geographic, Lindholm and Pangolin to name just three.

Anyway, to quote Groucho Marx
Those are my principles, and if you don't like them...well I have others.
 
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Maybe when L lenses are actually ready and available the rate will increase.
It is hard to commit to a system when you go to B&H and there are only 2 L lenses available to order.
What is worse is the adapters are hardly ever in stock, why buy a camera if you are unable to get the lens you want or the adapter for the lens you have.
I just ordered a lens from B&H and they have the 35,85, 50 1.2, 600, 24-105, and maybe the 50 1.8 in stock. Did not check the adapters.
 
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Jan 30, 2020
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Your response is very thoughtful and makes a lot of good points. But, I think there are some glaring holes in there as well.



I'm not sure what advantages a gripped 1 series style body would have for studio, landscape and architecture. What not simply use an R5 and if longer battery life is needed, add a grip. The 5 series has traditionally been more popular for these uses anyway.



However, as @neuroanatomist has pointed out, one of Canon's big marketing ploys has been the lineup of sports photographers at top professional, Olympic and NCAA events all using Canon. He asked if Canon would really want to showcase its second-best camera in this way.



If they want the fanciest toy wouldn't that be the R1?



See above comments about showcasing your second-best body.



The 5 Series, which isn't going anyplace.

Not trying to pick on you, because I think yours was a well reasoned post, but as I said, there are some issues I can't get past. Mainly, I'm trying to envision what the actual market for an R1 will be and what targeting to that market will dictate in terms of features.

I am of at least two opinions right now:

1) The R3 is an interim body that Canon released because they just don't feel that mirrorless technology has advanced to the point where it deserves the 1 Series label. Under this theory, we would see the 1D remain as the flagship until 2024 and then, in time for the next Olympics, Canon announces a merger of the 1D x and R3 lines into an R1 and the R1 continues in the tradition of the 1D series.

2) Canon has determined that there is more money to be made selling high end cameras to enthusiasts who, in your words, "want the fanciest toys" than there is trying to sell to a shrinking professional market. In which case, the R1 will likely have a 45 mp or higher sensor and pack in every high tech bell and whistle they can dream up. This certainly seems to be the way the market is headed and if one needs proof of that, all you need do is take a look at the growing number of high-end tours provided by entities like National Geographic, Lindholm and Pangolin to name just three.

Anyway, to quote Groucho Marx
I predict #2 - high mp R1. Obviously a low mp R1 can't coexist with an R3, and I believe the R3 line will become Canon's go to sports/pj camera.

Withe the Z9 coming out, Canon will want to compete with a pro body high mp, not an R5.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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I predict #2 - high mp R1. Obviously a low mp R1 can't coexist with an R3, and I believe the R3 line will become Canon's go to sports/pj camera.

Withe the Z9 coming out, Canon will want to compete with a pro body high mp, not an R5.
Predict, or personally want?

Answer honestly:
1) Does it make sense for Canon’s second-best camera to be the one most used at high-profile events?
2) Has Canon’s history suggested the use of a high MP sensor in their sports/PJ camera?

I agree that is doesn’t make sense to have a 20 MP 1D X III and a 24 MP R3 aimed at sports/PJ then release a 24-30 MP R1 aimed at sports/PJ…if the R1 is released soon.

But why must it be released soon? Because of Nikon? That rationale was used when Nikon came out with their first MILC. Canon waited, Nikon’s failed, Canon’s became a global best-selling line. That rationale was used when Sony came out with their first FF MILC. Canon waited 4 years to launch theirs.

Nikon is also losing ILC market share, mainly to Sony, such that they’re now 3rd in a market that was formerly dominated by just two makers.
 
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FrenchFry

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I don’t think that 5,999$ US if it is going to to 6,099 Euros. Does the 6,099 Euros in vat since the vats are different country to country?
Nokishita leaked the Euro price first and said it might not be final. A follow up tweek confirmed that their Euro price leak does include 20%VAT.
Nokishita subsequently leaked USD prices, which are pre-tax.

You are correct that a pricing of $5999 USD and 6099 Euro including 20% VAT would be a significant departure from how the same item is typically priced in both markets.
 
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Jack Douglas

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This completely new sensor is designed to produce less “rolling shutter” distortion during Electronic Shutter operation and offer continuous Electronic Shutter still-image shooting at speeds up to 30 fps — with full Dual Pixel CMOS AF and auto exposure1.

Does that imply the same shortcomings of the R5, which incidentally annoy me more often than I prefer? I'm not complaining, I'm just complaining.

Jack
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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Regarding the timing of the R1, this (from an interview with a Canon exec) sounds like it could be a ways off:

While the RF system is a major evolution of the EF system, we believe that in order to bestow an RF camera with the “1” model designation, we must achieve an even greater level of performance, and we continue to work towards reaching those high standards.
 
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