The End of the DSLR?

[jolyonralph]

I had an interesting discussion last night with a guy who has more contacts than I do in the Canon world. He made a bold statement.

"Canon will never release another mirror-based professional DSLR"

Pushing further he said that you won't see a 1DXIII or a 5D Mark V with mirrors. There will probably be refreshes in the amateur lineup (90D etc) but even those won't go more than a couple of generations more.

6D Mark II? He doesn't know, but wouldn't be surprised if it was ready but Canon were unsure whether to actually launch it or not.

He expects the current 1DX II and 5D IV to be on sale for "At least" another 5 years, and possibly like the film cameras they'll keep them in slow production for a few years more for those who really don't want to move to mirrorless.

Changes in current lens designs, focus technology and changes in market plans for future lenses are all being based on a mirrorless future, apparently.

He also said this would make a lot of people unhappy, which is why no-one is talking about it.

So perhaps I shouldn't either. But oh well too late


I suspect he may be wrong. I am a definite convert for mirrorless, but there is still a huge difference when it comes to shooting fast action. And battery life! Will these problems be solved within 5 years? Probably.

 

[jolyonralph]

I'm pretty sure we'll see a 5DSR II though, with a mirror!

 

[neuroanatomist]

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

 

[jolyonralph]

I wonder if the 1DX II has reached the limits of how fast a traditional mirror system can perform. If we want more frames per second then we either have to look at pellicle solutions (A99II) or mirrorless. I've seen the future, and it's not the EOS RT.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Mirrorless systems have not yet caught up with dSLRs for tracking moving subjects, more frames not in focus isn't really a viable solution for 1-series uesrs.

Sony has made claims about the a9. Lett me know when you start seeing them on the sidelines of major sporting events. I won't hold my breath.

 

[jolyonralph]

Many film photographers also swore that digital would never replace 35mm professionally. Look how that worked out for them.

But yes, I think Canon are playing the smart game here, letting companies such as Sony grow the market for mirrorless and waiting until they can entirely replace the mirror with a fast enough sensor.

The future goes beyond just speed. We already have face tracking, which works really well. What can we expect in future cameras? intelligent object recognition and tracking for example? So not just faces, but birds, balls, lions or whatever else is there. Face tracking is the 'consumer' end of the technology, but I see future cameras being sold not just on megapixels and focus speed but on the intelligence of the onboard systems in identifying items of interest and getting them in focus before you have even had time to think about what to focus on! Of course there will still be manual modes for us luddites

 

[Rockskipper]

They'll have to somehow match the quality of an OVF with an EVF and make it work when the power's off to make a lot of us happy. And then there's blackout...

 

[docsmith]

How many drinks had your friend had???? : : :

I am not sure the exact lead time it takes to launch a professional DSLR....but it would surprise me if Canon isn't already working on the 5DSR II, 5DV, and 1DX III. All with mirrors.

It would not surprise me at all if they have several prototype mirrorless FF dSLRs. Matter of fact, it would shock me if they didn't. But when they go exclusively mirrorless, I would also expect a new lens mount. Thus, I expect a transitional period, a FF mirrorless body (M1), EF adaptor, and a few lenses at launch. At least one more generation of mirrorslappers to help with the transition as the new lens mount is populated.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Many film photographers also swore that digital would never replace 35mm professionally. Look how that worked out for them.

I'm not saying mirrorless won't replace dSLRs in pro cameras (or consumer cameras), that will likely happen. But suggesting that Canon will make it happen across all their lines, all at once, and never release another dSLR? Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

No one is talking about it, not because it will make people unhappy, but because it's silly.

 

[unfocused]

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

So true.

Mirrorless will replace SLRs when they can do everything a mirrored system can do, only better. So far, that is not the case. Will it be the case in five years? Who knows? And, really, who cares?

As long as I can look through a viewfinder, see my subject and compose my frame, what do I care if there is a mirror in the camera or not? Regardless, I highly doubt that the basic ergonomics of high-end interchangeable lens cameras are going to change all that much.

Of course, if the OP's story is at all close to true, it proves that his "friend" is something of an idiot. After all, to say that a company is going to make a major change that "would make a lot of people unhappy" is a pretty good indicator that the person knows absolutely nothing. Companies do not go out and purposely do things to make "a lot of people unhappy."

 

[YuengLinger]

Many film photographers also swore that digital would never replace 35mm professionally. Look how that worked out for them.

I'm not saying mirrorless won't replace dSLRs in pro cameras (or consumer cameras), that will likely happen. But suggesting that Canon will make it happen across all their lines, all at once, and never release another dSLR? Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

No one is talking about it, not because it will make people unhappy, but because it's silly.

But if we are looking at a new mount, should we avoid Big Whites? Will they be obsolete or relegated to adapters that slow down AF?

 

[tpatana]

Mirrorless systems have not yet caught up with dSLRs for tracking moving subjects, more frames not in focus isn't really a viable solution for 1-series uesrs.

Sony has made claims about the a9. Lett me know when you start seeing them on the sidelines of major sporting events. I won't hold my breath.

Yea you get these threads every so often. Like I said earlier, when mirrorless has:

-99% as good AF tracking and speed
-Nearly indistinguishable EVF, with virtually no lag

Then I'm all in for mirrorless. Using my dlsr until that happens.

My guess is that time is less than 5 years thou, so it's possible 1DX3 has those. For sure 1DX4 will have those (although they'll change name at that point, but the 4th gen in 1DX legacy)

 

[Hflm]

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

So true.

Mirrorless will replace SLRs when they can do everything a mirrored system can do, only better. So far, that is not the case. Will it be the case in five years? Who knows? And, really, who cares?

As long as I can look through a viewfinder, see my subject and compose my frame, what do I care if there is a mirror in the camera or not? Regardless, I highly doubt that the basic ergonomics of high-end interchangeable lens cameras are going to change all that much.

Of course, if the OP's story is at all close to true, it proves that his "friend" is something of an idiot. After all, to say that a company is going to make a major change that "would make a lot of people unhappy" is a pretty good indicator that the person knows absolutely nothing. Companies do not go out and purposely do things to make "a lot of people unhappy."

In my opinion, shooting weddings using a 5divs with A7rii for supplement (having used Nikon high-end and Fuji XT2, too, to get a perspective) the transition point is close, if not already there for most areas. We all know the A9 specs. Many things need to be investigated further in real competitive situations to see whether the laurels are deserved or not. But for the majority of users, when implemented in the A7iii or similar (no blackout, fully silent shutter, similarly quick start-up time, etc. etc.) I don't see a big reason to stay with DSLRs anymore. I find myself using the DPAF most of the time at weddings, to be honest. Why? Focus is accurate even at the outer focus points using my f1.4 lenses _all_ the time (even better with the A7rii). No back- or front-focus issues any more. You often have a single chance getting the focus right and I love using the A7rii since I know the image will _always_ be perfectly focused. Always. It is more quiet, exposure is closer to what I want in strong backlit situations resulting in less post-processing time (nice when dealing with thousands of images for a wedding). DPAF is already very good. I can easily imagine Canon using the same EF mount in a DPAF MILC or maybe an intermediate hybrid version. I wouldn't use a different mount. RED, BlackMagic, and others have active EF mount systems. Thom Hogan said that rumor at the NAB trade show has it that Panasonic will be going that direction with a new VariCam.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I have little doubt that Canon is looking at mirrorless, but so far, they have not produced a single FF body or even one with pro level AF for mirrorless. They have lots of patents, and likely will release one in a few years. They have done lots of surveys, and found most pro level photographers have little interest in mirrorless, since the glass is so important, and mirrorless does not make it smaller or lighter.

We'll see how much your friend knows when the 6D MK II is released later this year.

I'd give you good odds that it will not be mirrorless.

 

[YuengLinger]

I have little doubt that Canon is looking at mirrorless, but so far, they have not produced a single FF body or even one with pro level AF for mirrorless. They have lots of patents, and likely will release one in a few years. They have done lots of surveys, and found most pro level photographers have little interest in mirrorless, since the glass is so important, and mirrorless does not make it smaller or lighter.

We'll see how much your friend knows when the 6D MK II is released later this year.

I'd give you good odds that it will not be mirrorless.

But why can't the mount area of mirrorless be a little elongated so as to accommodate current ef lenses?

I just hope the adapters are 99% as good as current performance without on FF bodies.

 

[jolyonralph]

My friend never said the 6D II would be mirrorless. His suggestion was that it would be a traditional update to the 6D, but this might be cancelled because Canon are not sure of the strength of the market for DSLR cameras.

Personally, I think Canon's got a good chance of doing something innovative with a hybrid OVF/EVF that gives photographers the best of both worlds, so that 'live view' can be used through the viewfinder etc. If they can get this right and their parents hold up well then it could give them a huge advantage in the future.

 

[jolyonralph]

But why can't the mount area of mirrorless be a little elongated so as to accommodate current ef lenses?

I just hope the adapters are 99% as good as current performance without on FF bodies.

As I just said, I think a hybrid OVF/EVF solution (which would therefore require normal EF mount) would be the best solution.

But I think what is quite possible is that we'll see in the future a FF mirrorless camera effectively in two different form factors, as a 5D/6D style large body with standard EF mount (so no adaptors needed) and as a more compact EOS-M style body with the EF-M mount which would take EF-M lenses (current and future full-frame variants) and EF lenses with appropriate adaptor.

Much in the same way as the current 80D and EOS M5 are almost the same camera in two different form factors (albeit in this case only one is mirrorless.)

That second option would of course require a whole new line of FF EF-M lenses which may or may not be a sensible allocation of resources by Canon. But they probably wouldn't need much, a decent 24-70 f/4 IS, 50mm 1.8 or 14 prime, maybe a compact 35mm f/2. Everything much wider or much longer than these would have little benefit in making EF-M specific versions. Of course these lenses would work on existing EOS M cameras too.

 

[Sporgon]

My friend never said the 6D II would be mirrorless. His suggestion was that it would be a traditional update to the 6D, but this might be cancelled because Canon are not sure of the strength of the market for DSLR cameras.

;D ;D

Your friend is some dude

 

[ykn123]

Oh boy, am i the only one who give a s... on whether my camera has a mirror or not as long as i can use it to take great pictures?

 

[arthurbikemad]

Maybe tech will change, maybe a clear sensor will be developed, then new tech could give me what I want, to see through my lens without the need for an EVF, no EVF I have ever used has ever come close to a simple DSLR let along the amazing and incredible OVF of the 1DX2.