The End of the DSLR?

[Don Haines]

YAPOD!

The people at Canon are smart and they know the market. The proof of this is that they are #1 in sales.....

Some people want a small, relatively inexpensive, yet good quality camera. The "M" series is their answer....

Others want the advanced controls (and you need a large sized body to fit them) and uncompromising image quality of a FF camera.... and they will not accept the vignetting and chromatic aberration that comes with bending the light sharper for a short flange body.....

and never the two shall meet.....

 

[Jopa]

Why would a successful business want to make "a lot of people unhappy"?

I don't think anyone would care if a camera has mirror or no mirror, as long as it's fast, reliable and take the existing EF lenses with no issues.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Why would a successful business want to make "a lot of people unhappy"?

I don't think anyone would care if a camera has mirror or no mirror, as long as it's fast, reliable and take the existing EF lenses with no issues.

Its not a simple thing. North American and to some extent, Europeans prefer large Camera bodies, while in Asia, small is considered better. Some say its due to hand size, but its probably more cultural. Companies like Canon have taken the large body approach merely because most camera buyers were in North America and Europe.

That dynamic has changed, Asia is now driving camera sales, and they prefer small. Its very expensive to make flagship level cameras in both large and in small sizes, but that is one solution. Canon is big enough to be able to design and sell both, so I expect that to happen. If sales of small mirrorless bodies take over, then everything will follow the money.

 

[LDS]

After all, to say that a company is going to make a major change that "would make a lot of people unhappy" is a pretty good indicator that the person knows absolutely nothing. Companies do not go out and purposely do things to make "a lot of people unhappy."

Actually, Canon already did when it switched from the FD mount to the EF one. Suddenly, all your precious lenses couldn't be used on new cameras and you had to buy them again (Canon had good reasons for such choice, but it was expensive for customers). So, yes, some deep changes may made people unhappy - if I would have to use all my EF lenses through an adapter on a mirrorless camera I wouldn't be happy at all, and wouldn't probably buy it.

Yet, I'm sure mirrorless will take the place of SLR - they are cheaper to build ( = more profits) and will last less - OLED MTBF is not yet very high (= more sales, and "planned obsolescence"). Some people will be happy to replace a camera every two-three years. Others may be not.

 

[jolyonralph]

Others want the advanced controls (and you need a large sized body to fit them) and uncompromising image quality of a FF camera.... and they will not accept the vignetting and chromatic aberration that comes with bending the light sharper for a short flange body.....

I've seen this said before, and it's still nonsense.

If you stick EF lenses on a mirrorless camera it's going to have exactly the same optical properties as it would on a mirror DSLR. Whether this is with an adaptor onto a compact body or a larger body that takes EF lenses directly. So no-one has to accept any degradation in vignetting or aberration for mirrorless.

Similarly, if you are designing lenses for a short flange distance sensor then it is ENTIRELY UP TO YOU how much distance you put between the rear element and the sensor. If you want to have a larger lens with a greater distance between the two then go ahead.

Compact lenses are an advantage that mirrorless offers, but it doesn't INSIST on compact lenses. Look at the Sony FE lens options for example!

I do agree about smaller cameras being more difficult to operate - my biggest criticism of the M5 is that they made it TOO small.

 

[Mikehit]

I've seen this said before, and it's still nonsense.

If you stick EF lenses on a mirrorless camera it's going to have exactly the same optical properties as it would on a mirror DSLR. Whether this is with an adaptor onto a compact body or a larger body that takes EF lenses directly. So no-one has to accept any degradation in vignetting or aberration for mirrorless.

So what you are saying is 'buy the Sony camera because it is great....but only if you buy an adapter and use Canon lenses....and lose that fantastic frame rate.

 

[jolyonralph]

I've seen this said before, and it's still nonsense.

If you stick EF lenses on a mirrorless camera it's going to have exactly the same optical properties as it would on a mirror DSLR. Whether this is with an adaptor onto a compact body or a larger body that takes EF lenses directly. So no-one has to accept any degradation in vignetting or aberration for mirrorless.

So what you are saying is 'buy the Sony camera because it is great....but only if you buy an adapter and use Canon lenses....and lose that fantastic frame rate.

No, I have no idea how you read that into my comment!

We were talking about FUTURE Canon mirrorless FF cameras, not Sony - and as has already been suggested on this site that a future FF camera may continue to use the standard EF mount and camera general dimensions.

There are more advantages to mirrorless than just size reduction.

Anyway, the high end Sony lenses such as the 24-70 f/2.8G are very good, at least on a par with the Canon 24-70. Are they small and compact? No they're no different to the Canon lenses. Of course with the A7rII you get the benefit of in-body image stabilization which Canon still doesn't have for still photography.

 

[Mikehit]

No, I have no idea how you read that into my comment!

We were talking about FUTURE Canon mirrorless FF cameras, not Sony - and as has already been suggested on this site that a future FF camera may continue to use the standard EF mount and camera general dimensions.

There are more advantages to mirrorless than just size reduction.

Anyway, the high end Sony lenses such as the 24-70 f/2.8G are very good, at least on a par with the Canon 24-70. Are they small and compact? No they're no different to the Canon lenses. Of course with the A7rII you get the benefit of in-body image stabilization which Canon still doesn't have for still photography.

Thank you for clarifying. Your comment was in response to Don who commented on short flange distance so I assumed you were continuing that line.

But yes, you are right that you can make FF mirrorless with the correct flange distance. The thing with the Sony lenses is that optically they may be equal to Canon but lenses designed for the A7rii they reportedly have issues at the edge arising from the short flange distance.

Once Canon go down the line of mirrorless I can see them following Olympus/Panasonic line of having combined IBIS and optical IS to give greater stabilisation - do that with the big whites and you will have an awesome system!

 

[jolyonralph]

The thing with the Sony lenses is that optically they may be equal to Canon but lenses designed for the A7rii they reportedly have issues at the edge arising from the short flange distance.

Again, the flange distance defines the minimum distance between the lens and the sensor. With mirrorless you CAN make that much smaller, but it doesn't have to be.

If your optical formula determines that the best quality is given by a set of lenses with a traditional large gap between the rear element and the sensor then you can do just that with the lens!

There is no *requirement* to put the rear elements extremely close to the sensor, you only do that if a compact lens is your primary goal.

And, even with compact lenses on the A7RII (35mm 2.8) i've seen no evidence of issues at the edge.

 

[Loswr]

My friend never said the 6D II would be mirrorless. His suggestion was that it would be a traditional update to the 6D, but this might be cancelled because Canon are not sure of the strength of the market for DSLR cameras.

So they're going to cancel the 6DII because they're uncertain about the strength of the dSLR market, and instead switch over to entirely mirrorless…a market that is less than one-third the size of the dSLR market.

Yeah, that makes just oodles of sense. :

 

[Orangutan]

I wonder if the 1DX II has reached the limits of how fast a traditional mirror system can perform.

Maybe for flip mirrors, but I've wondered why they couldn't do a sliding mirror (like the shutter curtain) with the big-body DSLRs. If they can get a light shutter curtain to move at x-sync speed, they should be able to get a heavier mirror to move at some decent fraction of that.

 

[hendrik-sg]

Many film photographers also swore that digital would never replace 35mm professionally. Look how that worked out for them.

I'm not saying mirrorless won't replace dSLRs in pro cameras (or consumer cameras), that will likely happen. But suggesting that Canon will make it happen across all their lines, all at once, and never release another dSLR? Sorry, but that's ludicrous.

No one is talking about it, not because it will make people unhappy, but because it's silly.

But if we are looking at a new mount, should we avoid Big Whites? Will they be obsolete or relegated to adapters that slow down AF?

I think we should avoid all which we dont need now. who needs a big white now will have no alternative now. And obsoletness is a selling strategy, and recently the 400 2.8 IS got obsolete, maybe 5 years after replacement.

To link to the past, the guy who bought a FD big white 3 month before the EOS system was announced made a worse investment, than his friend who bout a EOS big white 1 year later, but the eos guy had no big white for 1 year.

Because we never know what happens next (because we not make the decision ourselves) we should avoid what we not need NOW

 

[CanonCams]

My friend never said the 6D II would be mirrorless. His suggestion was that it would be a traditional update to the 6D, but this might be cancelled because Canon are not sure of the strength of the market for DSLR cameras.

;D ;D

Your friend is some dude

Cancelled?

If the rumors are any indication (especially with the supposed registration of the 6D MK II), how many times has any camera company cancelled a product this close to release?

I don't buy it.

 

[Loswr]

Cancelled?

If the rumors are any indication (especially with the supposed registration of the 6D MK II), how many times has any camera company cancelled a product this close to release?

Nikon announced their DL series of premium compacts in Feb 2016 and indicated a summer 2016 launch. They postponed that, then in Feb 2017 they canceled the series.

So, it happens...but it's not going to happen to the 6DII.

 

[Hflm]

I wonder if the 1DX II has reached the limits of how fast a traditional mirror system can perform.

Maybe for flip mirrors, but I've wondered why they couldn't do a sliding mirror (like the shutter curtain) with the big-body DSLRs. If they can get a light shutter curtain to move at x-sync speed, they should be able to get a heavier mirror to move at some decent fraction of that.

?? Why and how should they do that? How to design it to avoid vibration or shock waves initiated by an even faster movement of mechanical parts and reduce blackout time similarly? Development costs are much higher for DSLRs, in a declining market where companies try to move customers to more expensive gear to increases sales numbers or expensive mirrorless (even higher revenue) to mitigate the drop in units sold. The market will move to global shutter or at least efcs. I see the benefit with my A7rii or when using the 5div in LV. The A9 avoids blackouts and allows silent shooting. For the next Olympics an A9 successor will be there, improving what we have now even further. Not all need that, but I find that useful. In combination with higher res sensors it makes sense to avoid things degrading pixel level IQ, unless you only want to use your camera on a tripod.
I can imagine Canon offering some kind of hybrid intermediate models, doing OSPDAF in between mirror slaps, for example, however.

 

[jolyonralph]

Clearly the 6D is coming and it's going to be a traditional DSLR

And, as I said before, I think we'll see a 5DSR Mark II (but possibly not a 5DS mark II?) too.

My views are that we'd likely see at least a 1DX Mark III with a traditional mirror, but yes maybe the 5D Mark V will be a premium mirrorless camera.

 

[jeffa4444]

Canon EF-M flange depth is 18mm for APS-C sensor, Sony E mount is 18mm for Full Frame cameras, Canon EF / EF-S is 44mm (FL / FD was 42mm).

As we see for the EF-M you can use an adaptor to mount EF lenses on a shorter back focus camera to cover the larger 24 x 36mm image circle (as adaptors for the Sony E mount already do with Canon lenses) the issue is this doesn't really save anything on size & weight other than the camera body. Designing new optics is possible but Canon are still releasing new EF lenses they have invested huge sums of money developing so what is the likely reality.

The sensor will not be moved, it would need to move forwards 26mm to accommodate 44mm flange depth lenses

Change the profile of the DSLR: That would break a design tradition dating back to the film EOS 650, not likely.

More likely I think Canon will work on the Rebel line and convert those to mirrorless and move away from EF-S lenses and use adaptors for those wanting to use EF lenses and at the same time expand the EF-M lens line-up to go back to two series of lenses rather than three. Most Rebel camera purchasers (7D MKII / 80D excepted) only ever purchase the kit lens and maybe one other zoom to me that makes more logic and the 7D MKII / 80D users will be able to purchase the legacy EF-S lenses kept in production but not newer versions.

 

[CanonCams]

Cancelled?

If the rumors are any indication (especially with the supposed registration of the 6D MK II), how many times has any camera company cancelled a product this close to release?

Nikon announced their DL series of premium compacts in Feb 2016 and indicated a summer 2016 launch. They postponed that, then in Feb 2017 they canceled the series.

So, it happens...but it's not going to happen to the 6DII.

Yikes.

 

[geonix]

Well, I can remember that it was rumored, once the 7D2 came out, that Canon won't make a mirror 7D III.

At some point in time we will see mirrorless cameras that have no disadvantages compared to pro level dslrs. Also not in AF tracking. We will see if the A9 is already one of those or just an incremental step in that direction.

My hope is, that the technological advance also continues on converters and adapters. If canon came up with a mirrorless body, that had a specially fitted adapter for the current eos lenses, so that these lenses would work on the mirrorless body the same as on current dslrs, the transition would be easy.

 

[Mikehit]

Easy? Not so sure.
There are many experienced users who still do not like the EVF offerings out there. They will form a core of those who need to be convinced. Personally, I look on the EVF as a great aid to composing the picture and the information I get is a great help that overcomes the non-real appearance. But some want it to look like an optical VF as well and 'feel' as though they are looking at the view and not a computer representation of it.