What Happened to the Photography Industry in 2013?

[Canon Rumors Guy]

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<p><a href="http://www.lensvid.com" target="_blank">LensVid</a> has posted an excellent infographic showing how truly bad 2013 was for the camera industry. At its worst, there was a 40% drop in total camera sales between 2012 and 2013. That included a 19% drop in DSLR shipments.</p>
<p>A few points are brought up about why the numbers were less than stellar in 2013. The first being the use of smartphones over compact cameras, we’re beating a dead horse with that one. The second reason being the economic stability of the planet, we’re still not totally out of the woods in a lot of places around the globe. The third, and the most interesting is North America’s aversion to the mirrorless market. Until people in the United States show they’re willing to spend on these systems, I don’t think we’ll see a huge advancement in technology or products. It’s a chicken and the egg thing, people keep saying make something worth buying, but every company is watching their R&D dollar and DSLR’s and lenses are still a safer bet for a return.</p>
<div id="attachment_16001" style="width: 585px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="http://www.canonrumors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Infographic-1920-1200-01.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-16001" alt="Click for Larger" src="http://www.canonrumors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Infographic-1920-1200-01-575x359.jpg" width="575" height="359" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Click for Larger</p></div>
<p>Source: [<a href="http://lensvid.com/gear/lensvid-exclusive-what-happened-to-the-photography-industry-in-2013/" target="_blank">LV</a>]</p>
<p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">c</span>r</strong></p>

 

[Canon 14-24]

I think a good question is what happened to the upper/pro-sumer/pro Canon dSLR & lens market - in which probably the greater population of the site visitors here encompass? There doesn't appear to be any stagnant slowing of product releases from rivals like Nikon/Sony and third party lens like Sigma and Tamron.

One dual pixal innovation on a 70d with a whole collective of marginal "innovations" of rebels, kit lens upgrades (basically slapping the STM label on), and garbage powershots aren't cutting it for this past year+.

If Canon is keeping tight its R&D spending on marginal rebel/kit upgrades why is it blowing $$$ on releasing lenses like the 24-70 f/4 is L, 24 2.8 IS, and 28 2.8 is? I blame part of the drop in those graphs/numbers on failed business decisions from Canon.

Since 2012-today, the only worthwhile "pro-sumer/pro" lenses have been the 24-70 2.8 II and 200-400 f4 1.4x.

One can only hope with Canon these past few years, that they enter the medium format market or do something more dramatic.

 

[Ellen Schmidtee]

IMHO, we should also be looking at what happened in the years up to the peak.

In 2000, Canon wasn't selling any DSLRs. In 2010 Canon was selling the 5Dmk2, an FF DSLR that can shoot video at an attractive price point. Point being, people were moving from film to digital, and that helped sales. Now that the market has reached maturity, it's only natural sales would slow down, and smartphones & the economy just help to roll sales down the hill.

My guess is the new non-L 24mm, 28mm, & 35mm IS USM are first signs of Canon realizing it has to tap the lower end DSLR market to make money, as in most rebel owners aren't going to upgrade to FF or buy L lenses.

 

[traveller]

I think a good question is what happened to the upper/pro-sumer/pro Canon dSLR & lens market - in which probably the greater population of the site visitors here encompass? There doesn't appear to be any stagnant slowing of product releases from rivals like Nikon/Sony and third party lens like Sigma and Tamron.

One dual pixal innovation on a 70d with a whole collective of marginal "innovations" of rebels, kit lens upgrades (basically slapping the STM label on), and garbage powershots aren't cutting it for this past year+.

If Canon is keeping tight its R&D spending on marginal rebel/kit upgrades why is it blowing $$$ on releasing lenses like the 24-70 f/4 is L, 24 2.8 IS, and 28 2.8 is? I blame part of the drop in those graphs/numbers on failed business decisions from Canon.

Since 2012-today, the only worthwhile "pro-sumer/pro" lenses have been the 24-70 2.8 II and 200-400 f4 1.4x.

One can only hope with Canon these past few years, that they enter the medium format market or do something more dramatic.

I don't think that it's just Canon, I would accuse Nikon of doing similar. The only manufacturers that have been churning out the camera and lens releases over the past few have been Sony (E & FE-mount only), Fuji and m4/3rds. Of course, these manufacturers have needed to build there systems from scratch, whereas Canon and Nikon have a comprehensive system built up over years. Of course, one could make the "look where it's got them" argument: Sony are in the red, Olympus are all but bankrupt with shareholders demanding divestment of the camera division, and Panasonic stills cameras are effectively in the "last chance saloon" with their new Chief Executive threatening to sell any under-performing business unit.

I would tend to agree with Thom Hogan that where the "big two" are weak is in their support for their APS-C lines. Unless they are planning to release full frame bodies at "Rebel" prices (which isn't going to happen any time soon, if ever), their EF-S/DX lens line-up is seriously weak at the wide angle end. I can only think that they hope this drives "serious" users to go full frame, but the danger is that they go mirrorless instead; this is especially so because the sort of user that wants fast wide glass (where X-mount and m4/3rds excel), is also the sort of user that can live without phase detect af.

The other danger is the third party lens makers are starting to encroach upon their turf with higher end enthusiast and professional lenses; these have traditionally been a good profit generator for Canon and Nikon.

 

[spturtle]

Everyone is now buying Leica cameras but they're not a member of CIPA so those sales are not counted.

 

[docsmith]

What happened? Market saturation.

+1....most people that wanted a camera beyond a P&S bought one in 2009-2012.

But the second point is also well taken....2013 was weak on new releases

 

[traveller]

What happened? Market saturation.

Along with those that are already established not seeing anything in new products (from 2012 - 2013) as being worthwhile upgrades.

Quite.

The camera industry until recently still had a growth mindset. I think that this last year or so has brought it home to them that the good times are over. The global recession has killed growth, but I don't think that we'll see a return to the growth levels of the "noughties" even after full economic recovery.

I think that we're at the end of the era after the film to digital transition. The new realities are:

[list type=decimal]
[*]The market is now saturated, many buyers already own a DSLR
[*]CMOS sensor performance seems to have plateaued in that the rate of improvement in sensor performance is slowing down.
[*]This has forced manufacturers to make improvements to other specifications in order to sell upgrades
[*]DSLR manufacturers are now maxing out on improvements to other "key" specifications
[*]They are now looking for new ways to sell cameras (think small and retro)
[/list]

This is actually starting to look like a return to normality in the camera market, having been in a consumer electronics phase. Maybe the pace of releases will speed up again when the next truly disruptive technology comes along; I'm not sure that mirrorless is that disruption.

 

[photonius]

IMHO, we should also be looking at what happened in the years up to the peak.

In 2000, Canon wasn't selling any DSLRs. In 2010 Canon was selling the 5Dmk2, an FF DSLR that can shoot video at an attractive price point. Point being, people were moving from film to digital, and that helped sales. Now that the market has reached maturity, it's only natural sales would slow down, and smartphones & the economy just help to roll sales down the hill.

My guess is the new non-L 24mm, 28mm, & 35mm IS USM are first signs of Canon realizing it has to tap the lower end DSLR market to make money, as in most rebel owners aren't going to upgrade to FF or buy L lenses.

Exactly, the missing point 4 in the analysis.
THe market is maturing, saturating, and stabilizing. There was a huge transition from film to digital. Now digital is at the point where you don't need to buy a new camera every year.
And at present there is no further revolution in sight, where everybody suddenly thinks they have to go out and buy new gear.

A new stimulus could come from things like 3D imaging,
http://www.pelicanimaging.com/technology/index.html
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/519546/depth-sensing-cameras-head-to-mobile-devices/

 

[Etienne]

I agree with many of the comments here. Although I am pretty happy with my 5DIII, I would still like a few upgrades:

Lighter weight
Speedier fps
even better AF, the dual pixel in FF
better video: true HD, 120 fps slow motion, video crop mode, maybe even 4K capability
Focus aids for video, built in intervalometer, etc
How about an XLR device like the optional one on the new panasonic GH4!

I think there's still lots of room for upgrades that I would pay for.

 

[Coolhandchuck]

What happened to the Photography Industry? The Economy is what happened to the Photography Industry.

 

[suburbia]

I would certainly pay into the true 16bit and then 24bit revolution. Might be a long long way off though! Not sure how that would go down in the consumer market but its an increasing number!

 

[Corvi]

Sadly not what i was hoping for. We are still turding around with ancient lens designs but we get a new body to use those ancient lenses on every 3 month. Really ?

 

[rsdofny]

Aside from 2012 which set a high water mark, there was growth in the DSLR segment from 2010-2013. For the compact camera segment, smartphones change the way people taking photo as well as the way they consume it, ie Facebook,Instagram.

I think that the core group of photographers that demand high quality photo will stay with DSLR and grow accordingly. In fact, the adoption of smartphone may generate more interest in photography among the wider user base. A lot of people think that mirrorless camera will take over in this segment, but I disagree. When you add the high quality lens to the kit, the weight and size advantage will diminish unless you are a street photographer that uses fast prime lens. There are features of mirrorless that may be adopted in a DSLR. Photographers can change the exposure based on what is displayed on the back screen. in a DSLR, you cannot see that in the eyepiece.

If camera manufacturers need to compete in the compact market, they need to produce a sony rx100 that can be retailed at $300 or below. They will need to make it easier for people to use it because the class of people upgrading from smartphone may not want to learn too much. Also, the new camera has to have capability that the smartphone cannot do, for instance, smartphone cannot photograph an indoor scene with vivid outdoor background. Wireless connection is a must too, so that the users can facebook the photo to all their friends.

 

[Greenmeenie]

Well, if Canon or Nikon actually came out with a FF mirrorless it would sell. But they haven't, so it doesn't. Meanwhile, Sony has stepped up big time to fill that need, and it's paying off. Canon & Nikon seem too scared to make a move. The demand is there. Just look at Sony's A7. It's selling very well. The demand is high.

 

[lw]

Just look at Sony's A7. It's selling very well. The demand is high.

But where is the evidence?

Which Canon DSLR(s) is it outselling?

 

[jprusa]

looking at the numbers on the Mirrorless market, it is a mystery to me why Canon excluded America and Europe when the M2 was released to the market.

 

[yeahyoung]

What happened is that the size/weight issue of DSLRs is overrated.

Cameras just can't go more portable than cell phones.

And mirrorless is the wrong solution to the problem of DSLRs being too large and heavy. It turns out that users of DSLRs do not mind DSLRs being large and heavy, as long as there is a mature lens system, and the manufacturer being able to reduce the weight just a little bit.

 

[hiplnsdrftr]

Camera manufacturers were spoiled by the boom of consumers entering the digital age of photography.

In the film era, a good film SLR could be 20 years old and still be considered a top of the line camera.

At least in the current digital age, regular upgrades are inevitable. The manufacturers should be thankful for that.

 

[Etienne]

What happened is that the size/weight issue of DSLRs is overrated.

Cameras just can't go more portable than cell phones.

And mirrorless is the wrong solution to the problem of DSLRs being too large and heavy. It turns out that users of DSLRs do not mind DSLRs being large and heavy, as long as there is a mature lens system, and the manufacturer being able to reduce the weight just a little bit.

Not quite true ... a lot of people want smaller and lighter, but they (me included) don't want to give up ergonomics or performance.

 

[cm71td]

I see different information in this than what people are talking about.
DSLRs: If you look at the growth curve over several years, the DSLR sales continue to grow. 2013 only looks bad if you compare the numbers with 2012. The 2013 numbers are still higher than 2011.

In 2012 many new models DSLR models were released that were significantly upgrades (1DX, 5D III, 6D, D4, D800, D600). By contrast, in 2013 we got the 70D, D610, and Df. I'm amazed the numbers dropped as little as they did from 2012 to 2013.

Mirrorless: The 2013 mirrorless numbers are low given the number of great new mirrorless models introduced in 2013. If you listen to the "mirrorless hype", you'd think the growth would be more explosive. I suspect that for now, most mirrorless cameras sales (other than Japan) are second cameras for people who also own a DSLR.

Compact Cameras: Are dying as expected. People who don't care about image quality are just using their phones.