Will Canon Answer the D4s? [CR2]

nicku said:
What I wish to see from Canon in 2014 :

1. An big megapixel camera in a 5D body.
2. An APS-H 7Dmk2
3. An improved version of the 6D (improved AF in particular)

So they can:-
1: Replicate the comparative flop that is the D800? With a multitude of people who don't know what they are doing with sub optimal lenses and technique leaving an aura of dissatisfaction over their "premium" sensor. I doubt it.
2: So they can restart a stopgap solution to sensor yields on an unsupported sensor size. Not likely.
3: That is the 5D MkIII. The 7D (or whatever) which is the 6D replacement, that is the 5D MkII/5D replacement, will probably not have particularly good AF, high end AF is a market segment deliminator, it seems lower level (cheaper) cameras get WiFI ad GPS built in, even the Powershots get this stuff, though I think this is changing and WiFI/GPS will be standard features soon.
 
Upvote 0
[quote author=jrista]
I live in Colorado. It's actually a fairly decent place for astronomy/astrophotography, as it is rather arid, so few problems with humidity screwing with a telescope. (I think on the best of days we might have 30% humidity, and on most days it is way down around 16%. There have been times when we've had less than 10% humidity.) We have mountains, too, so you can get up to 11,000 feet or more for thinner, clearer air.
[/quote]

Goodness! I was happy for the humidity to be below 95% the other night, when we finally had a clear few hours!

[quote author=jrista]
This is the most advanced imaging device I know of:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/at-work/test-and-measurement/superconducting-video-camera-sees-the-universe-in-living-color

...

If, at some point in the distant future, the ability to supercool electronics to absolute zero becomes "easy", this would basically be the ultimate pinnacle of image sensor technology. We would have <b>perfect color reproduction</b>, perfect electronic current, near-infinite dynamic range (basically only limited by exposure time), etc. The energy requirements for maintining temperature at 0.1K would probably drain even a high capacity DSLR battery like that found in the 1D X in seconds, so I suspect this kind of technology would need an always-on power source (i.e. outlet), or some kind of fuel cell that provided MASSIVE power.
[/quote]

Perhaps this is beyond the scope of the current discussion, but what does 'perfect colour reproduction' mean? I get that this device tells us the wavelength of each photon, but doesn't the reproduction of colour boil down to mapping the readout to things the human eye can recognise? Our eyes don't have perfect colour reproduction, they respond differently across the visible spectrum. Is there an easy way of converting one to the other? Or is this a matter of philosophy?

One last thing (actually a few things). Do you know if anyone has tried using these supercooled astro cameras for earthly subjects? Are they related to so-called 'starlight cameras' used for night time ambient light capture of wildlife? And in the long run, given all you've said, would a move to larger sensors (medium format, for want of a better term) be feasible for this sort of thing? I appreciate that requires larger lenses, but new materials and designs seem to be able to shave off weight, perhaps that could help?

Incidentally, I've been fascinated by this whole discussion, once we got past people moaning. So many fascinating concepts!
 
Upvote 0
nicku said:
What I wish to see from Canon in 2014 :

1. An big megapixel camera in a 5D body.
2. An APS-H 7Dmk2
3. An improved version of the 6D (improved AF in particular)

What i believe Canon will release:

1. Big MP camera in a 1D series body with a considerable price tag.
2. APS-C 7Dmk2 with a improved version of the 20.2 MP sensor.
3. EOS 700D replacement

I agree with much of your guesswork, and I also would like to see a new APS-H sensor (or preferably something in between 1.3x and 1.6x). Unfortunately there aren't many fans of it...and either way, it would not be inexpensive.
 
Upvote 0
CarlTN said:
nicku said:
What I wish to see from Canon in 2014 :

1. An big megapixel camera in a 5D body.
2. An APS-H 7Dmk2
3. An improved version of the 6D (improved AF in particular)

What i believe Canon will release:

1. Big MP camera in a 1D series body with a considerable price tag.
2. APS-C 7Dmk2 with a improved version of the 20.2 MP sensor.
3. EOS 700D replacement

I agree with much of your guesswork, and I also would like to see a new APS-H sensor (or preferably something in between 1.3x and 1.6x). Unfortunately there aren't many fans of it...and either way, it would not be inexpensive.

Agree with Carl --- APS-H is a done deal.

The Big MP -- that's a big who knows - if canon is toyingaround with a new naming scheme it may end up being between a 1d and a 5d in size and price - or they may pump out 2 bodies, one full pro with a 1d price tag and one semi-pro with a 5dish price tag

If the 6d gets a bump this year I doubt we'll see a huge AF upgrade - same 11 points, maybe add a few X type points...We'll see though, originally I thought the 6d may be on a 1 year upgrade cycle because it's got the entry level tag...but, they may be opting to put it on a 2 year cycle (they have have had both plans on the table, if sales don't exceed this then we update it, if they do, then we skip an upgrade cycle).

Asto the 700d thing...that's just a given as rebels always get the 1 year upgrade bump....
 
Upvote 0
Chuck Alaimo said:
CarlTN said:
nicku said:
What I wish to see from Canon in 2014 :

1. An big megapixel camera in a 5D body.
2. An APS-H 7Dmk2
3. An improved version of the 6D (improved AF in particular)

What i believe Canon will release:

1. Big MP camera in a 1D series body with a considerable price tag.
2. APS-C 7Dmk2 with a improved version of the 20.2 MP sensor.
3. EOS 700D replacement

I agree with much of your guesswork, and I also would like to see a new APS-H sensor (or preferably something in between 1.3x and 1.6x). Unfortunately there aren't many fans of it...and either way, it would not be inexpensive.

Agree with Carl --- APS-H is a done deal.

The Big MP -- that's a big who knows - if canon is toyingaround with a new naming scheme it may end up being between a 1d and a 5d in size and price - or they may pump out 2 bodies, one full pro with a 1d price tag and one semi-pro with a 5dish price tag

If the 6d gets a bump this year I doubt we'll see a huge AF upgrade - same 11 points, maybe add a few X type points...We'll see though, originally I thought the 6d may be on a 1 year upgrade cycle because it's got the entry level tag...but, they may be opting to put it on a 2 year cycle (they have have had both plans on the table, if sales don't exceed this then we update it, if they do, then we skip an upgrade cycle).

Asto the 700d thing...that's just a given as rebels always get the 1 year upgrade bump....

The 6D better not be on a 1 year upgrade cycle! Glad we can still agree on things Chuck old buddy! The watchers thought we were still enemies and were holding that against me!
 
Upvote 0
scyrene said:
One last thing (actually a few things). Do you know if anyone has tried using these supercooled astro cameras for earthly subjects? Are they related to so-called 'starlight cameras' used for night time ambient light capture of wildlife? And in the long run, given all you've said, would a move to larger sensors (medium format, for want of a better term) be feasible for this sort of thing? I appreciate that requires larger lenses, but new materials and designs seem to be able to shave off weight, perhaps that could help?

Incidentally, I've been fascinated by this whole discussion, once we got past people moaning. So many fascinating concepts!

AstroCams are cooled and haver very good Q.E....around 70-80% for the good ones. They are CCD type cameras, and part of their low-noise is due to very slow readout. On most astrocams, readout rate is specified in megapixels per second. So, if you get a 5mp astrocam that reads out at a rate of 1.2mp/sec it actually takes four seconds to read one single image off the sensor. An 11mp astrocam might have a readout rate of 2mp/sec, so it takes more than five seconds to read out a single image. That's really slow, excessively slow by modern DSLR standards (which can read out as many as 14 frames per second, which on an 18mp body is a readout rate of 270mp/sec.) I suspect that requiring a slow readout rate is a limitation of CCD technology, and CMOS technology probably wouldn't need such a limiting factor.

Starlight cameras are different than astrocams. Older starlight cams are usually security slow-exposure video cameras, and use VERY LARGE pixels with VERY LONG exposure times. They basically take continuous frames at say 2-3 second exposure times. They often only have a couple megapixels at most, and can see down to 0.001 lux. There is newer starlight technology that can literally see "normally" under nothing but actual starlight (0.0001 lux), and have normal frame rates with normal pixel sizes (i.e. they can have many megapixels in small form factor sensor sizes.) Newer ultra-sensitive sensor technology is using materials, rather than pixel size, to increase sensitivity. SiOnyx recently purchased the beginnings of technology for black silicon sensor design, and they have turned it into sensors that can see exceptionally well in light levels that would render most things black to the unadjusted human eye (given about an hour and a half in starlight levels, and the human eye will fully dilate and we can actually see about as well under nothing but the illumination of stars.)

Black silicon is not really all that complex. It employs the same general concept as nanocoating on modern lenses. Multicoating uses multiple layers of reflective coating in order to cause negating waveform interference with light. Multicoating does not prevent reflection, only results in reflections largely being canceled out. Hence the reason why lenses with multicoating can still lose several percent to as much as 30% transmission in the worst use case. Nanocoating, on the other hand, prevents reflection entirely by eliminating hard transition points. Modeled after moth eyes, cones or rods of varying height (but usually no larger than about 200nm) are used to create a smooth transition zone that guides light in, avoiding reflection entirely. A lens that used only nanocoatings (as of yet, do not believe any such thing yet exists...nanocoating is currently employed on the most critical and largest internal elements, and never on external elements) would have grand total transmission loss of maybe 0.1% at worst, and maybe 0.05% on average.

Black silicon employs the same general concept...it is comprised of nanoscale rods of silicon that barely reflect any incident light at all, guiding the rest through into the substrate. This eliminates reflection off the sensor itself, greatly increasing the rate at which incident photons are able to actually reach a photodiode, thereby increasing Q.E. Technically speaking, the use of black silicon, along with properly designed microlenses to capture more high incident angle light, would increase the rate of photon strikes by so much that much larger photodiodes and even layered photodiodes would be essential in order to convert all those photons into free electrons and increase full well capacity. With black silicon, though, since it guides light through, layering photodiodes should be easier, as photons could penetrate much deeper into the sensor than normally. With multiple layers of photodiodes and little photon loss as they travel deeper into the substrate, full well capacities for small pixels could, theoretically be increased SIGNIFICANTLY...doubled, tripled, maybe even more. A sensor like the 7D's could be doubled from 21ke- FWC to 42ke- FWC, or maybe even achieve parity with the likes of the 5D III at 64ke- FWC.

That is, assuming someone like Canon picks up the technology and employs it. I don't think anyone is looking to black silicon yet for DSLR sensors, and who knows how long it might be before they do.
 
Upvote 0
I doubt we'll see a reply personally, the D4s to me looks to be Nikon trying to answer the superiority of the 1DX in some areas. The Nikon camera might have advantages in low ISO DR but for this kind of body that's much less of an issue where as the Canon has the advantage in FPS and AF.

This is a market Nikon is playing catchup in far more than Canon who could afford to wait even when Nikon went FF rather than ASPH with fast FPS pro camera's with double grips.
 
Upvote 0
vscd said:
Yepp. I think the Nikon D4s is no catch for the 1Dx, it's just closing the gap. It's just newer, so what? The D3s beats the "newer" D4 in a lot of situations...

For Canon I don't think its nearly as important to have the latest greatest camera in this section of the market, even if the new Nikon were slightly better I think they would be happy to leave it another year or two until the more natural end of the 1DX lifecycle to update.
 
Upvote 0
moreorless said:
vscd said:
Yepp. I think the Nikon D4s is no catch for the 1Dx, it's just closing the gap. It's just newer, so what? The D3s beats the "newer" D4 in a lot of situations...

For Canon I don't think its nearly as important to have the latest greatest camera in this section of the market, even if the new Nikon were slightly better I think they would be happy to leave it another year or two until the more natural end of the 1DX lifecycle to update.

Good point, Canon has the luxury of approaching it from a position of strength. Either way though, (based on previous product cycle durations)...I see a 2015 development, or even very likely a replacement announcement for the 1DX, with units being widely available to everyone by spring or summer 2016, if not before. I'd be more surprised if units are actually on sale before the end of 2015. That might mean a development announcement (or even a reliable rumor of one)...this year in 2014.

The Rio summer Olympics, will surely not come before a 1DX replacement is not only set in concrete, but in full production.

It need not have vastly more MP...anywhere from 20 to 26 (or perhaps slightly more if they would just bite their lip and include some in-camera sensor crop modes...for instance a 1.2x crop would be ideal...such as Nikon has done for going on a decade now).

The real and more pressing question for Canon, is when will the 5D4 be available? 2014 or 2015? I would be surprised if it's before 2015, but it would speak well for Canon if that happened. It would mean they are really focused on not only testing new technology, but perfecting it more quickly than they have been doing the past 5 years or so...at least in my opinion!
 
Upvote 0
Quote from: jrista

This is the most advanced imaging device I know of:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/at-work/test-and-measurement/superconducting-video-camera-sees-the-universe-in-living-color


Thanks, I liked reading this. A bit troubling that the galaxy on the left does not have a remotely resolved "nucleus" when compared to the Hubble image, but perhaps some of that is due to an unfiltered capture of a broader spectrum of light (where the Hubble's is meant to only portray visible light)??
 
Upvote 0
CarlTN said:
Quote from: jrista

This is the most advanced imaging device I know of:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/at-work/test-and-measurement/superconducting-video-camera-sees-the-universe-in-living-color


Thanks, I liked reading this. A bit troubling that the galaxy on the left does not have a remotely resolved "nucleus" when compared to the Hubble image, but perhaps some of that is due to an unfiltered capture of a broader spectrum of light (where the Hubble's is meant to only portray visible light)??

Remember, the test sensor only has 2024 pixels. The Hubble image is taken with a 15 megapixel sensor. BIIIG Difference. Once this kind of technology finds its way into megapixel sensors, you'll be able to tell the difference.
 
Upvote 0
jrista said:
CarlTN said:
Quote from: jrista

This is the most advanced imaging device I know of:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/at-work/test-and-measurement/superconducting-video-camera-sees-the-universe-in-living-color


Thanks, I liked reading this. A bit troubling that the galaxy on the left does not have a remotely resolved "nucleus" when compared to the Hubble image, but perhaps some of that is due to an unfiltered capture of a broader spectrum of light (where the Hubble's is meant to only portray visible light)??

Remember, the test sensor only has 2024 pixels. The Hubble image is taken with a 15 megapixel sensor. BIIIG Difference. Once this kind of technology finds its way into megapixel sensors, you'll be able to tell the difference.

Well, unless the image was scaled up and smoothed (a lot), it does seem like it should have resolved at least a bit of the "nucleus"...because it does reveal more of the detail in the galaxy to the right (you can even see the warm colored portion along the edge). That's why I thought it might be due to the Hubble image only portraying visible light, where the other image portrayed full spectrum light. Infrared light could possibly be filling in the "void" that is defining the "nucleus" in the Hubble image.
 
Upvote 0
CarlTN said:
jrista said:
CarlTN said:
Quote from: jrista

This is the most advanced imaging device I know of:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/at-work/test-and-measurement/superconducting-video-camera-sees-the-universe-in-living-color


Thanks, I liked reading this. A bit troubling that the galaxy on the left does not have a remotely resolved "nucleus" when compared to the Hubble image, but perhaps some of that is due to an unfiltered capture of a broader spectrum of light (where the Hubble's is meant to only portray visible light)??

Remember, the test sensor only has 2024 pixels. The Hubble image is taken with a 15 megapixel sensor. BIIIG Difference. Once this kind of technology finds its way into megapixel sensors, you'll be able to tell the difference.

Well, unless the image was scaled up and smoothed (a lot), it does seem like it should have resolved at least a bit of the "nucleus"...because it does reveal more of the detail in the galaxy to the right (you can even see the warm colored portion along the edge). That's why I thought it might be due to the Hubble image only portraying visible light, where the other image portrayed full spectrum light. Infrared light could possibly be filling in the "void" that is defining the "nucleus" in the Hubble image.

In the article, the image WAS scaled up, a LOT. The original image was 44x46 pixels, the image in the article is probably eight to ten times that large.
 
Upvote 0
Don't expect "eventually" to be tomorrow, though. The big name DSLR cameras are the high end ones. They don't sell as much as the Canon Rebels and Nikon Dxxxx models, but they are usually where significant leaps in larger format technologies are made. We already had major new DSLRs released over the last couple of years, and major new mirrorless cameras just over the last year. It'll be a couple years at least before we see any significant innovations trickle down to the DSLR and Mirrorless arena.


I gave some extreme examples sure, but my point is still quantified. The primary difference in our expression is verbiage that attempts to assert knowledge and understanding of physics... (no offense, just an observation)
I work for a medical equipment manufacturer specializing in imaging technology, and if no comparison were made beyond the technology we work with I can assure you that consumer digital imaging products are not implementing the latest imaging technology. If one were to then compare other industries that develop and implement imaging technology outside the realm of consumer photography products, dslrs might as well have a little chimp inside with a tablet and chisel... The physical size of a $2.5billion device has little to do with researching the concepts of that technology for other applications, especially when the $2.5billion device contains many more elements than the digital sensor, and provides ample room for design and implementation to meet other criteria such as serviceability and maintenance - not how small the packaging could be.
However if you are prepared to offer higher megapixels, improved noise algorithms, marginally improved read noise, and the absence of a mirror (all within the concepts of traditional sensor design) as examples of 'new technology' then we have little to discuss given the discrepancy in perspective and definition.



This if funny as hell btw: Fstoppers Nikon DF Digital Camera Hipster Review
Fstoppers Nikon DF Digital Camera Hipster Review
 
Upvote 0
CarlTN said:
moreorless said:
vscd said:
Yepp. I think the Nikon D4s is no catch for the 1Dx, it's just closing the gap. It's just newer, so what? The D3s beats the "newer" D4 in a lot of situations...

For Canon I don't think its nearly as important to have the latest greatest camera in this section of the market, even if the new Nikon were slightly better I think they would be happy to leave it another year or two until the more natural end of the 1DX lifecycle to update.

Good point, Canon has the luxury of approaching it from a position of strength. Either way though, (based on previous product cycle durations)...I see a 2015 development, or even very likely a replacement announcement for the 1DX, with units being widely available to everyone by spring or summer 2016, if not before. I'd be more surprised if units are actually on sale before the end of 2015. That might mean a development announcement (or even a reliable rumor of one)...this year in 2014.

The Rio summer Olympics, will surely not come before a 1DX replacement is not only set in concrete, but in full production.

It need not have vastly more MP...anywhere from 20 to 26 (or perhaps slightly more if they would just bite their lip and include some in-camera sensor crop modes...for instance a 1.2x crop would be ideal...such as Nikon has done for going on a decade now).

The real and more pressing question for Canon, is when will the 5D4 be available? 2014 or 2015? I would be surprised if it's before 2015, but it would speak well for Canon if that happened. It would mean they are really focused on not only testing new technology, but perfecting it more quickly than they have been doing the past 5 years or so...at least in my opinion!
I don't get your remark about the 5D. It hasn't been around even two years and still has no real competition in the market.
 
Upvote 0
Arctic Photo said:
CarlTN said:
moreorless said:
vscd said:
Yepp. I think the Nikon D4s is no catch for the 1Dx, it's just closing the gap. It's just newer, so what? The D3s beats the "newer" D4 in a lot of situations...

For Canon I don't think its nearly as important to have the latest greatest camera in this section of the market, even if the new Nikon were slightly better I think they would be happy to leave it another year or two until the more natural end of the 1DX lifecycle to update.

Good point, Canon has the luxury of approaching it from a position of strength. Either way though, (based on previous product cycle durations)...I see a 2015 development, or even very likely a replacement announcement for the 1DX, with units being widely available to everyone by spring or summer 2016, if not before. I'd be more surprised if units are actually on sale before the end of 2015. That might mean a development announcement (or even a reliable rumor of one)...this year in 2014.

The Rio summer Olympics, will surely not come before a 1DX replacement is not only set in concrete, but in full production.

It need not have vastly more MP...anywhere from 20 to 26 (or perhaps slightly more if they would just bite their lip and include some in-camera sensor crop modes...for instance a 1.2x crop would be ideal...such as Nikon has done for going on a decade now).

The real and more pressing question for Canon, is when will the 5D4 be available? 2014 or 2015? I would be surprised if it's before 2015, but it would speak well for Canon if that happened. It would mean they are really focused on not only testing new technology, but perfecting it more quickly than they have been doing the past 5 years or so...at least in my opinion!
I don't get your remark about the 5D. It hasn't been around even two years and still has no real competition in the market.

Was thinking the same thing Re:5d4. The 5d series seems to be following a similar upgrade path as the 1 series - so, if history repeats we'll see a spec list for the 1dx, followed by silence, followed by spec sheet for a 5d4 in late 2015, then the 5d4 will hit the shelves in the spring of 2016..if we see it in 2015 it will be at the tail end of 2015..

I for one would rather them wait till 2016 - if that means totally new sensor, new digic, better DR...more MP's aren't what I NEED, but, I wouldn't say no to that as long as more MP's don't gimp any of the current features and capabilities of the 5d3.

either way, this is where I like that canon can do what they are doing from a strength position - they can hold steady, make the 5d4 and 1dx2 what it needs to be, not a rushed product that amazes on one end but falls short on many others...
 
Upvote 0
Chuck Alaimo said:
Arctic Photo said:
CarlTN said:
moreorless said:
vscd said:
Yepp. I think the Nikon D4s is no catch for the 1Dx, it's just closing the gap. It's just newer, so what? The D3s beats the "newer" D4 in a lot of situations...

For Canon I don't think its nearly as important to have the latest greatest camera in this section of the market, even if the new Nikon were slightly better I think they would be happy to leave it another year or two until the more natural end of the 1DX lifecycle to update.

Good point, Canon has the luxury of approaching it from a position of strength. Either way though, (based on previous product cycle durations)...I see a 2015 development, or even very likely a replacement announcement for the 1DX, with units being widely available to everyone by spring or summer 2016, if not before. I'd be more surprised if units are actually on sale before the end of 2015. That might mean a development announcement (or even a reliable rumor of one)...this year in 2014.

The Rio summer Olympics, will surely not come before a 1DX replacement is not only set in concrete, but in full production.

It need not have vastly more MP...anywhere from 20 to 26 (or perhaps slightly more if they would just bite their lip and include some in-camera sensor crop modes...for instance a 1.2x crop would be ideal...such as Nikon has done for going on a decade now).

The real and more pressing question for Canon, is when will the 5D4 be available? 2014 or 2015? I would be surprised if it's before 2015, but it would speak well for Canon if that happened. It would mean they are really focused on not only testing new technology, but perfecting it more quickly than they have been doing the past 5 years or so...at least in my opinion!
I don't get your remark about the 5D. It hasn't been around even two years and still has no real competition in the market.

Was thinking the same thing Re:5d4. The 5d series seems to be following a similar upgrade path as the 1 series - so, if history repeats we'll see a spec list for the 1dx, followed by silence, followed by spec sheet for a 5d4 in late 2015, then the 5d4 will hit the shelves in the spring of 2016..if we see it in 2015 it will be at the tail end of 2015..

I for one would rather them wait till 2016 - if that means totally new sensor, new digic, better DR...more MP's aren't what I NEED, but, I wouldn't say no to that as long as more MP's don't gimp any of the current features and capabilities of the 5d3.

either way, this is where I like that canon can do what they are doing from a strength position - they can hold steady, make the 5d4 and 1dx2 what it needs to be, not a rushed product that amazes on one end but falls short on many others...

The 1DX was "introduced" before the 5D3, so I suppose a 1DX replacement might get released before a 5D4. However, the 5D3 was delayed a bit longer than it should have been...likely because it got essentially the same AF sensor as the 1DX (but they wanted the 1DX to have it first...also there was the earthquake and nuclear meltdown...).

Remember the 5D2 came out in 2008, where the 1D4 came out a year later, late 2009...yet got replaced by the 1DX first. The first 5D was released in 2005, was it not? That was a 3 year replacement cycle...

In my speculation, I feel that a 5D4 will not be getting some ground breaking AF sensor inherited from a 1DX2 (and thus might not need to be released afterward), so I was assuming a 5D3 replacement might happen before a 1DX replacement.

Anything is possible...it just seems to me the 5D3 might get replaced first this time...especially if Canon actually do introduce a new 1 series body soon, such as 2014.
 
Upvote 0