PMA 2009 Predictions [CR3]

All predictions are based on rumors I have received

So what will be launched?

DSLR
Canon Rebel 500D

mp: 15.1
ISO: 100-3200
Proc: DIGIC IV
LCD: 3″ VGA LCD
crop: 1.6
FPS: 3.5
AF: 9 Point AF
AF: Face Detection
Battery: LP-E5
Feature: LiveView
Feature: Movie Mode w/contrast detect AF

Possibly a jogwheel added to the body.

What's not coming?
We will not see a new 1 series body. End of 2009 perhaps? It's been suggested it could be early 2010 before we do.

As pointed out by a reader, 2010 is a winter Olympic year as well as the World Cup. There SHOULD be a new 1D for those events.

Lenses
I think the community is more interested in what lenses are rolling down the pipe. I'll put the rumors in order of likelyhood.

Most Likely
EF 35mm f/1.4L II USM
– We've seen the 50L launched and upgrades to the 14mm and 24mm L's. This is a logical next step.

TS-E 24mm f/3.5L II
– It's generally accepted the current lens has been discontinued. I reported it could be f/2.8, I think it's more likely to be 3.5 because of design limitations.

Don't be shocked if a 2nd focal length Tilt-Shift is launched.

Possible
EF 100-400 f/4-5.6L II IS
– The Canon community wants this lens pretty badly. I just don't think it's coming. Kinda hope I'm wrong.

EF 24-70 f/2.8L II IS
– Possibly the most sought after lens Canonites are lusting after. Match Nikon's optics and add IS? You'd have a massive sales success. It almost wouldn't matter what it cost.

EF 50 f/1.4 II
– Heard various reports about low stock of this lens. A couple of places have said they can't get them anymore. I've heard nothing concrete, nor would I really understand replacing this lens at the present time. Possible that they'll just dump it and replace it with an EF-S 35? I've heard that theory before.

One or two of the big white lenses gets redone. I wouldn't be shocked to see the 300 and 400's get version II's. However, that's more likely to happen in 2010.

Not happening
EF 17-40 f/4L II
– I don't think Canon needs to replace this hot selling lens just yet, there are too many other lenses that people want follow-ups to.

EF 150 f/2.8L IS Macro
– I never reported on this lens because it seemed way far fetched. It makes sense to make a lens like this, I just don't think now is the time for it.

EF 24-105 f/4L II IS
– There's bee murmurs about this lens for a year or so, nothing substantial has come of it yet. I think the current one sticks around for  a while. People would go crazy if they upgraded this and left the 24-70 alone.

From Left Field
A new wide angle prime in the 17mm-21mm range.
– There's been a few people around the web talking about such a thing. Even a comment on this site. It's a great idea, nothing concrete.

EF-S Lenses
– I've received no information about a new EF-S lens at this time. Will Canon suprise and follow what Nikon just did with a new 35 for crop cameras? Possible.

Flashes
250EX
– I think a new small flash makes a ton of sense for Canon. You put flash shoes on the G, S and SX cameras, and don't give the people a viable option for a small flash that can bounce? Seems poorly thought out to me. Nikon has one, why doesn't Canon?

700EX
– I reported the possibility of a higher end flash from Canon. I think it's out there and more likely to be launched with a 1 series camera.

PowerShots
Expect the following PowerShots to be replaced.

SD1100 IS
SD890 IS
SD770 IS
SD790 IS
A580
A590 IS

Expect more of the same type of upgrades from Canon for the above cameras. I'm not sure we'll see a direct replacement of either the 580 or 590.

We've received a bunch of information about a waterproof/shockproof camera finally being launched. There's also been a bit of information about a possible new CMOS camera being launched at PMA.

Canon have any surprises in store?
If they do, they've hid it extremely well. I don't think this is the time for Canon to pull a rabbit out of a hat. We all hope I'm wrong with that assessment!

cr