*UPDATE*
I addressed Tilt-Shift, Macro and Teleconverters, I didn't copy/paste that stuff over. Sorry about that.
Be sure to scroll down for part 1
I think there are far more people eager to see what lenses Canon has coming down the pipeline. I know I am.
I think this is going to be the year of the lens from Canon. I truly expect a lot of upgrades and a couple of new lenses.
Without further ado…….
I could see these three announced February 9, 2010.
14-24 f/2.8L
– An ultra wide for full frame that finally makes Canon users happy.
24-70 f/2.8L IS
– Upgraded coating, build and the much desired image stabilization. I personally think Nikon royally dropped the ball not VRing their 24-70.
70-200 f/2.8L IS II
– The current model is very good, but I wouldn't call it great (don't flame me too hard for saying that, I do own one) . The lens will get an upgraded IS and better optical performance, especially at 200mm. Lighter weight would be a welcomed bonus.
World Cup & Big White Lenses
I think we could definitely see updated big white lenses f0r the World Cup. I think 3 lenses will get upgraded.
– 300 f/2.8L IS II
– 400 f/2.8L IS II
– 500 f/4L IS II
No 600 f/4L IS upgrade for the time being. We've seen the patent for the 600 f/4 DO, I think that would be an amazing seller for Canon and will be an addition to the lineup. A new 600 f/4L IS in 2011.
New pair of fisheyes
– If Canon is serious about keeping APS-C around, they need an EF-S fisheye. I think the Nikon 10.5mm fisheye is too expensive for a crop lens. I could see the following 2 fisheyes.
– EF-S 10mm f/4 Fisheye
– EF 15mm f/2.8L II Fisheye
What about regular primes?
The following 2 lenses are due for an upgrade, I'll predict one will get it.
EF 50 f/1.4 II
– The current 50 f/1.4 is one very old lens and among Canon's most unreliable as far as build goes. The USM is dated and the AF motor isn't the most reliable. The Sigma 50 f/1.4 is a much better lens (if you get a good copy). This should be upgraded and this might be the year.
EF 35 f/1.4L II
– The 14, 24, 50 , 85 & 200 are on a version 2. It's time for the 35 to join them. I think we'll see such a lens launched with the 1Ds Mark IV.
New Lenses?
Some kind of f/2 zoom will enter the lineup I think. I can't even contemplate what the focal length would be, but something unique must be coming.
Teleconverters
I wouldn't be shocked to see the 1.4 & 2.0 TC's getting an update. Howabout adding a 1.7 like the Nikonians have?
Tilt-Shifts
I don't think we'll see a new TS-E 45 or TS-E 90 this year. There are bigger fish to fry at the moment, even as far as niche lenses go.
Macro Lenses
There is a patent for the EF-S 60 f/2.8 IS Macro. Could we see that in 2010? I'd wager it being a 2011 lens.
What won't get upgraded?
I think the following lenses will stick around through 2010.
EF 100-400 f/4.5-5.6L IS
– Why bother? It's head and shoulders better than the Nikkor 80-400 (slowest lens ever) and sells very well. Optically it's great. The IS is very dated, but I don't think the lens requires an upgrade over some other stuff.
EF 17-40 f/4L
– I want this lens upgraded, I want to see better corners. I love the size and weight of the current lens… and the price! Canon sells so many of these things as it sits, it must be low on the list to upgrade.
EF 135 f/2L
– This lens is marvelous as it is and really isn't a “status” lens. The big white lenses don't really need upgrades, but they're definitely hype builders.
I have predicted 11 new lenses. My brain tells me that's probably 3 too many. The big white lenses and fisheye lenses won't be massive volume sellers, so I can see those produced alongside the volume lenses.
So the bold prediction? This will be the year of the lenses!
Part 3
I will focus on PowerShot and accessories!
cr
123 Comments
Yep! Herer also http://www.dpreview.com/news/1001/10010508canon70200isii.asp
Way to go, admin, you’ve already got one of the lenses right, though thins one was perhaps the easiest to predict.
Weel, the new EF 70-200 F/2.8 IS USM II is here: http://www.usa.canon.com/consumer/controller?act=ModelInfoAct&fcategoryid=150&modelid=19092#ModelDetailAct
Not necessarily. The L primes are big in size and weight compared to the non-L’s, something not desired by FF shooters like landscape photographers. We want them light and compact for hiking. We also don’t need f/1.4 speed. The non-L wide angles are among the oldest designs Canon still sells, predating the digital era. Here are all the Canon non-L primes introduced before the Apple QuickTake 100 (the first consumer digital camera):
15mm f/2.8 FE – 22 years, 9 months
28mm f/2.8 – 22 years, 9 months
50mm f/2.5 Macro – 22 years, 1 months
24mm f/2.8 – 21 years, 2 months
35mm f/2 – 19 years, 3 months
50mm f/1.8 II – 19 years, 1 months
45mm f/2.8 TS-E – 18 years, 9 months
90mm f/2.8 TS-E – 18 years, 9 months
100mm f/2 – 18 years, 3 months
20mm f/2.8 – 17 years, 7 months
85mm f/1.8 – 17 years, 6 months
50mm f/1.4 – 16 years, 7 months
The 85mm f/1.8 and 100mm f/2 are still fine lenses where an update is unnecessary. The 45mm and 90mm TS-E’s are superb optically needing perhaps only a refresh to include the ability to tilt and shift in the same direction without modding. I have no experience with the 50mm macro to testify to it and the 50mm f/1.8, is still good- a great bang for the buck lens. The rest of the field though…meh. Updates please.
that’s 6 too many lenses. only a few of the ones you mention have patents and are seen as in need of update by anybody other than gearheads.
realistically you can probably expect all the patented stuff to show up and maybe one of two more at BEST.
canon must update non L primes as well like 24/2.8 or 28/2.8, with usm and of course better optical quality.
in 2009 canon intruduced some new lenses above 1000$ 24TSE 17TSE 24IIL in this year will be some new non L( maybe EFS) prime lens. Personally i’d like to see a 30mm prime with usm below 500$.