A few things
A few places around the web are talking about an April timeframe at the earliest for the 1D replacement. A few people I spoke to said June is a possibility for an announcement with a fall launch. I still think an announcement in and around September. There will then be a good supply by the time the Vancouver 2010 games start in February.
A few things I've received in random emails about possible features of the 1Dx.
– Sport mode. Which will basically be an sRaw file at a very fast framerate.
– The camera will be full frame and anywhere between 15-21mp. No consensus on this.
– Internal memory. I don't think this will ever happen.
– AF Mode in movies. 24P mode as well. I can see various modes coming for the video feature, I'm not sure what AF in movie mode would require to be useful.
– Full color top display, perhaps OLED. Why not?
I get constant emails about lenses. This is the info I currently have. It's not much.
– 35 f/1.4L II is coming, but not until the fall 2009. A few people are talking PMA for this lens.
– 24-70 f/2.8L II IS is in the upgrade cycle, no word on when it's coming to market.
– A new 200 f/2.8L IS Macro. Adding IS to a consumer macro would be dumb if it'll raise the price $250, I don't get why Nikon did it. The L however, there would be a market for that.
– The Tilt Shift lenses will get an update in two parts over the next 24 months.
With the economics of the planet right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see Canon target niche lenses for introduction this year, and holding off on the consumer/prosumer products until 2010.
Discuss and keep the info coming.
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30 Comments
I just don’t think they’re going to replace the 1D3 and all its PR issues with a camera model that has superstitious meanings.
G1, G2, G3, G5, G6, G7, G9, G10
S1, S2, S3, S5
Just a couple recent examples of them skipping the number #4 and even the #8.
sRaw mode: I’d would be surprised if the limiting factor in continuous high shutter speed would be resolution – I would think physical size would be a factor. A crop mode would be necessary, like DX mode in the D3. That would produce 8mp files with a 21mp sensor.
I don’t know when but I think it would be wise for Canon to release a new 1D(whatever they call it) next year. I wouldn’t think it to come as soon as PMA but I do think the final production units need to be shipping, not announced, by September of 2009.
I just think with the Very Bad Issues with the 1D Mark III they are going to have to give pros the time to use that replacement and know it is going to work and work well before Vancouver. IF not I think Canon will lose more sports market share to Nikon. They have already lost a lot. I am not saying that the Olympics are the only game in town but we all know it is important and we all saw the sea of glass in Beijing take a huge swing from white to black glass. Canon still had more but just barely. The 1D Mark III issues definitely hurt Canon.
I hope Canon will do a Great job with their new one, whenever it comes out. I also hope personally that it is Full Frame and is somewhere between 12-18 MP and stays at 10FPS or higher.
I can also see that video could certainly come to this camera. As a photojournalism camera, I can certainly see a time when a photo op turns into a video op. Do I think this will become it’s primary role, certainly not but definitely could be a very nice add on and not a toy.
I certainly have no information but I think we will see a new model in our hands by September to October 2009 at the latest.
These are just my opinions and hopes based on educated guess.
I don’t think it takes much to guess the major features of a 1DIII replacement. And IMO the name is irrelevant. You just have to look at the Nikon D3 and the 5DII and cherry pick the improvements/new features to put in a 1D body:
-higher than 12MP to better the D3 on paper
-better high ISO than the 5DII on paper
-video (hopefully with better control over parameters than the 5DII)
-high resolution LCD display
-some sort of high fps rate
-live view AF, perhaps reasonable video AF
-UDMA
I’d be very surprised to see any truly revolutionary new features. What we are all guessing about is when. But it will certainly happen…
Notice I didn’t include full frame. I’m not sure it’s a given even though I’d like to see it happen. Yes, the D3s and 5Ds are FF, but I feel the deciding factor will be whether the 1D series continues as two separate cameras for another cycle, and my guess is it will. If so, then an APS-H format sensor aimed more so at photojournalist/sports photographers and priced competitively against the D3 may continue as a compromise format that gives added “reach” with telephoto lenses (for sports/nature) while not affecting wide angle as much as APS-C and eliminates the worst aspect of lens performance (the edges/corners on FF). The only advantage of a mid teens FF sensor I can think of is marketing (“hey, it’s full frame!”) and more easily achieved high ISO performance. But on the last point we can see the redesigned sensor in the 5DII is very good at 3200, so it should be possible to get the same or slightly better performance from an APS-H sensor with similar pixel density.
As much as I’d like to see an all in one 1D camera with 24+MP for certain applications and and a high teens sRAW with high fps for other applications, I don’t expect it to happen yet in part due to the D3X. Nikon and Canon are basically saying, let’s keep the premium FF DSLR market going. If Canon were to introduce a 1DX that competes against both D3s at all levels, then what will it be priced at? I doubt it would be $5K. If considerably higher, it would be too rich for sports/news photographers who typically work with at least two cameras at an event, some even use 3 or 4 (granted, many work for organizations, but in the end, someone has to pay for the gear). An expensive all-in-one camera could leave vulnerable an entire market segment that has already been strongly persuaded by the D3 and much less expensive D300. Will the AF be improved? I sure hope so, but I don’t expect it to change from the current 1DIII configuration.
I feel whatever Canon decides to release next will be aimed primarily against the D3 with incremental upgrades, plus video of some sort.
I call bologna. [CR EDIT]