I think you're still making some assumptions. I'd argue that the hobbyist market is going upmarket and that hobbyist are a larger population compared to professionals. While many professionals either rent gear or are given gear by manufacturers / agencies.
Admittedly my evidence is anecdotal: I know quite a few pros who told me so.
Agreed that were all making assumptions. From what I have seen from most reports are that Professional is the largest end user( by revenue), followed by Prosumer and then hobbyist. Content Creator/Prosumer may or may not be grouped together depending on where you look. As mentioned Content Creator is the fastest growing group based on revenue.
By end user, content creators registered the fastest growth trajectory with a 6.8% CAGR through 2030, whereas professional photographers retained 35.6% revenue share in 2024.
Source:
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/digital-camera-market
So Content creators grew, Professonals retained and therefore the hobbyist is probably what decreased a bit. This is as a precent of revenue and since revenue increased its possible that each group made more money its just the mix that is shifting.
I don't disagree that the hobbyist market is going upmarket as well. That was a core part of my argument. My macro view was that the bottom of the market is being eroded to smartphones and the Chinese and the Japanese camera makers are shifting toward more premium products rather than trying to compete head to head on price. For example Full frame is gaining ground. So if smartphones and the Chinese are making more and more small sensor cameras the Japanese are making more larger sensors.
In this thread particularly (and due to the A7V lack of features) I was arguing that because innovation is slowing new features are getting trickled out to keep the appearance of progress even though progess is stalling.
A hobbyist will be less likely to upgrade without a real meanigful upgrade. And we are hitting a point to where for the casual shooter they may never need to upgrade. I argued for example 8K tv's are declining in sales. So if we never surpass 4K displays as mainstream why would we need 12k consumer cameras for example?
So if you are buyng a camera to use occaisionally and that camera doesn't break and there is nothing substaintially better 5 years from now there will be no reason to upgrade.
Contrast that with the prosumer/professional where they are beating the crap out their equipment and can benefit from minimal new feautures as they are getting paid for the content they produce. As a result they are going to cylcle through equipment at a faster rate through either upgrade or replacing worn out items.
As mention in the report the Chinese have increase compact shipments by 213%. At some point they will move up to larger sensor cameras. I'm not sure what they are going to do at that point.
Now of course the future always throws something crazy at you. I wouldn't be surprised if they figure out how to put AI and some other software in the camera and then tie it to a subscription.
Personally I tend to skip a generation (both with cameras and phones) but I haven't followed this rule recently with drones. I tell myself that the newer ones are a clear improvement (they are!), but the reality is that my drone flying / filmmaking skills are such that the previous generation was not limiting me 
But I wanted the new ones, so...
I'm all in for smart AF, but call me old-fashioned, I want to be in control of the photos I take.
