I think you are right that the Camera is overcompensating. The system is making a calculated guess on the amount of IBIS compensation to apply on the first shot as it might not have the total gyro data yet.On a tripod, after a few seconds, the problem does not happen anymore,
It’s like the camera knows it’s on a tripod and maybe automatically disables ibis.
And the problem “I think” it’s due to the camera trying to compensate a twists that’s it expect when the button is pressed. But as there is not twist if you press carefully, the camera is overcompensating thus the issue I see... this is only my theory, that this is just a software bug, but there are some people that can’t reproduce the issue, so I don’t really know what’s going on...
This might be a bit of a stretch but I think of it like the blackout we see on the first shot in highspeed shutter. The Camera has no last frame to insert so we see a black screen after the first image. In the case of IBIS, the system might be always on but not fully awake and active to the users movements even if slight. If this is the case Canon could and should have the camera have the slightest delay on the first shot to allow the IBIS system to be fully active.
I am not 100% sure I have seen this on my R5 or R6 but I might have on the first outing back in July 2020 with the R5 - I took a handheld single shot of a gate that I was sure should be sharp but it was a hot mess when I reviewed the shot later. I use a tripod 95% of the time unless shooting wildlife and when shooting wildlife I expect the occasional blurry image.
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